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Century Downs Picks & Predictions — October 9, 2026

October 9, 20269 racesAll Century Downs picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Century Downs — clear skies, 56 degrees, and nine races on dirt that should be playing fast all afternoon. Conditions like this tend to reward horses with early foot, so pace scenario is going to matter from the jump today.

We've got a mixed card running from a short 300-yard sprint in Race 1 all the way out to a mile and a sixteenth in Race 5, which gives us some real variety to dig into. There's something here for every type of bettor — maiden claimers for value hunters, straight claimers for those who like a defined class level, and a couple of allowance spots where the better horses come out to play.

Three races are open to everyone today, and they're a solid cross-section of the card. Races 4 through 9 are reserved for TrackWiz subscribers — and trust us, some of the best plays of the day are sitting behind that wall.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A short-format quarter-horse sprint at 300 yards that looks like a two-horse race at the top, with a massive ratings gap separating the contenders from the also-rans.

win2First Flash the MoonML 6/5

First Flash the Moon carries a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — the highest in this field by more than 11 points — and the morning line of 6/5 reflects that dominance. At 300 yards, raw speed and early explosion are everything, and our analysis puts this horse head and shoulders above the competition. Trainer Craig Robert Smith has the horse pointed right, and jockey Miguel Angel Lopez gets the call. In a race this short, the top-rated runner rarely gets outrun wiring the field.

place5Streakin Snow WagonML 2/1

Streakin Snow Wagon is the second-best horse on paper with a rating of 78.01 and opens at a fair 2/1 on the morning line. In quarter-horse sprints, the pace scenario is simple — everyone goes — but the horses that hold form to the wire are the ones with genuine class, and this one grades out above the rest of the middle pack. Trainer Buckey A. Stockwell sends this one out with handler O. Amador Hernandez, and we expect a strong run-through for the exacta.

show4Babes WagonML 7/2

Babes Wagon is the only horse in the field with a recorded career win percentage — 20% — which is meaningful context in what is otherwise a statistically blank field. That real-world winning experience gives trainer Misael Moreno's runner an edge over maiden-like rivals in the back half of the field. At 7/2, there's enough value here to round out a trifecta play.

Race 2

12:43 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer at 7½ furlongs where the morning line favorite doesn't align with TrackWiz's top-rated horse — a classic setup for value on the top pick.

win6Sunday RainML 2/1

Sunday Rain posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, the highest in the field, yet opened at 2/1 — a slightly underlay but still workable as a win bet. Trainer Deanne Davies sends her out with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes aboard, a barn-jockey combination worth monitoring on the card today. Her average speed figure of 51 is in line with the field, but it's the overall profile that separates her from the pack in our model. In maiden claiming company at this distance, the top-rated runners convert at a strong clip.

place2Atta Boy GirlML 9/2

Atta Boy Girl grades out second in the field with a 79.75 rating and matches the pace group at an average speed of 52. Trainer Deanna Walper puts Kemar Richard Chase on board, and the 9/2 morning line represents genuine value given the horse's position in the TrackWiz hierarchy. She figures to be grinding at the top of the lane and landing in the exacta picture.

show5Devas CharmML 8/5

Devas Charm is the morning line favorite at 8/5 but ranks third in our ratings at 74.60 — not a bad horse, just not the best one. At 7½ furlongs, pacing comfort matters, and her average speed of 52 keeps her competitive with the frontrunners. Trainer Rodney J. Cone runs a sharp operation, and Keihton Natera is one of the more active jockeys on this card. She's a legit show contender and could easily flip the exacta if Sunday Rain doesn't fire.

Race 3

1:11 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Another maiden claimer going 7½ furlongs, but this one features a cleaner class separator at the top and a trio of mid-tier horses bunched closely together in the ratings.

win1Swift KahunaML 2/1

Swift Kahuna tops our ratings at 88.54 — matching Sunday Rain from Race 2 at the top of our model — and posts the fastest average speed figure in the field at 53. The 2/1 morning line is accurate given the competition, and trainer Deanna Walper is back in the winner's circle hunt with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes up. In a seven-horse maiden claimer where the second-best rated horse checks in at 74.86, the class edge here is real.

place5Due CoarseML 3/1

Due Coarse rates second at 74.86 and opens at 3/1 with Keihton Natera in the irons for trainer Craig Robert Smith. His average speed of 52 is right in the middle of the competitive cluster, but the ratings gap between him and the horses below him on the totem pole gives him a clear edge for the place spot. Smith and Natera have been busy on this card, suggesting the barn is sending sharp horses today.

show6Surging SkyML 7/2

Surging Sky rounds out our top three at 70.80 with a 7/2 morning line and a 52 average speed — statistically indistinguishable from Due Coarse at the pace level, which is exactly why this race could be tight for second. Trainer Ron Grieves puts N'Rico Prescod on board, and the price is fair for a horse this close to the top two in our model. A trifecta using all three of our top picks here is the play.

Our three free picks today span the early portion of the card and cover some genuinely interesting ground. Race 1 kicks things off with First Flash the Moon — a 6/5 morning line favorite who earned a TrackWiz rating of 89.71, the highest mark on the entire card. In a 300-yard dirt sprint, there's almost no time to make up ground, so raw ability at the break is everything. This one looks the part. Races 2 and 3 are both maiden claimers at 7½ furlongs, with Sunday Rain and Swift Kahuna each posted at 2/1 on the morning line and carrying identical ratings of 88.54 — a fun coincidence that suggests two competitive fields where our analysis found clear edges despite similar price points.

The clean weather and firm footing today should keep things honest — no excuse-making for connections, and no bias to hide behind. These three free races are worth playing seriously, not just watching.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:39 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 3 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short 3½-furlong maiden claimer with a wide-open look at the top — five horses are clustered within a 13-point rating range, making pace scenario and gate speed critical factors.

win7MendabrokenheartML 2/1

Mendabrokenheart leads our ratings at 58.33 and lands atop the morning line at 2/1 under Keihton Natera for trainer Karline Kingston. At 3½ furlongs, the gate break and early stride are paramount — this is a race that can be won and lost in the first 50 yards. The rating edge is slim but real, and Natera has been the go-to jockey for several live barns on today's card. We'll side with the top-rated runner at a price that still offers reasonable value.

place6N Two OML 5/2

N Two O rates a close second at 57.50 and opens at 5/2 for trainer Craig Robert Smith with Kimal Santo riding. Smith is one of the more active trainers on this card, and the 5/2 price on a horse this close to the top of the ratings makes her an excellent exacta anchor. The short sprint distance means form cycles matter less — it's all about who fires out of the gate, and our model likes this pair at the top.

show8Sauce Me a SliceML 4/1

Sauce Me a Slice rates third at 55.00 and is the only horse in this race with a recorded average speed figure — 53 — which is worth noting in a field where several competitors lack speed data entirely. Trainer Makayla Edwards and jockey Brian Boodramsingh send her out at 4/1, a price that offers real trifecta value. The available speed data gives us a bit more confidence in her than in some of the blanks surrounding her.

Race 5

2:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Claiming company stretching to 1 1/16 miles — a route that will test fitness and pace management, and one where a standout TrackWiz rating at double-digit odds could deliver serious value.

win6St. ElmoML 3/1

St. Elmo is the clear class of this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — more than 16 points clear of the second-best runner — and the top average speed figure in the field at 54. Trainer Mark Cloutier sends him out with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, who is one of the busiest jockeys on today's card. His career win rate of 13% is respectable in claiming company, and at 3/1 on the morning line, he's a value play relative to his ratings dominance. In route races, class tends to out-kick raw pace, and St. Elmo looks like the class horse here.

place7Late Night LivingML 6/1

Late Night Living checks in at 71.14 in our model — second-best in the field — and opens at an attractive 6/1 with Mauricio Malvaez up for trainer Geovani Olalde. His 11% career win rate is steady, and an average speed of 53 keeps him right in the tactical zone for a mile-plus race. If the pace gets honest early, a closer profile like this can gobble up tiring rivals in the stretch.

show5Curlin RocksML 5/2

Curlin Rocks sits third in our ratings at 70.46 and is the morning line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public has a different opinion than our model on the win order. He does have the best career win percentage in the field at 25%, and a 51 average speed that profiles as a patient closer. Jose Mariano Asencio rides for trainer Colten Mead, and with the top two picks at bigger prices, Curlin Rocks offers a safe landing spot for trifecta coverage.

Race 6

2:35 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming field at 7 furlongs where our top pick sits in the middle of the morning line despite owning a commanding ratings edge — potential overlay alert.

win6Ah ToucheML 6/1

Ah Touche grades out as the top horse in this field at 82.71 but opens at 6/1 on the morning line, which creates a genuine value opportunity. Trainer Gonzalo Anderson puts Linton Leon Steadman in the saddle, and with an average speed of 53 and a career win rate of 6%, this horse has been competitive without fully breaking through. Our model sees this race differently than the public does, and 6/1 on an 82-rated horse in a claiming field is exactly the overlay situation we look for.

place5Worthy SpiritML 9/2

Worthy Spirit rates second at 71.34 for trainer Craig Robert Smith — whose stable appears extremely active today — with Kemar Richard Chase up at 9/2. An average speed of 53 and a career win rate of 6% mirrors the top pick closely, and in a seven-furlong dirt race, the pair could run 1-2 in either order. The double play using Ah Touche and Worthy Spirit on top is a logical exacta approach.

show2Skip's MoneyML 5/2

Skip's Money is our show pick at 57.86 in the ratings and 5/2 on the morning line — the morning line co-favorite alongside Worthy Spirit's stable mate. Trainer Craig Robert Smith has multiple runners in this race, and at 25% career win rate, Skip's Money is the more experienced winner among them. Kimal Santo gets the mount, and at a short price for the show spot, this one anchors a trifecta nicely even if the win order shakes out differently than expected.

Race 7

3:03 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 7½-furlong claimer looks wide open on the morning line, but our model finds a decisive standout — and a potential double-digit longshot worth a serious look in the exotics.

win8Dale's MagicML 5/2

Dale's Magic tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — roughly 20 points clear of the nearest rival — and pairs a 14% career win rate with an average speed of 53. Trainer Karline Kingston sends him out with Amadeo Perez, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the horse our model most strongly endorses. In a field with this much clustering between 60 and 67 in the ratings, a horse in the high 80s stands out sharply.

place3Alberta's StormML 15/1

Alberta's Storm is our longshot value play for the place spot at 15/1 on the morning line, with a 67.03 rating that actually makes her the second-best horse in our model. A 20% career win rate is the highest in this field, and trainer Cory Rumsey puts Kemar Richard Chase aboard a horse who may be significantly underestimated by the public. If the pace gets contested early among the speed horses, Alberta's Storm could be flying late at a massive price.

show5Bizness AccountML 6/1

Bizness Account rates 65.71 — third in the field — and opens at 6/1 with Antonio Ambrosio Reyes for trainer Deanna Walper. His 7% career win rate is modest, but in a claiming race at this level, consistent placing is valuable. The average speed of 52 and overall profile suggests a horse that runs his race every time — exactly what you want in the show slot of a trifecta.

Race 8

3:31 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive nine-horse claiming sprint at 6 furlongs where the top-rated horse opens at 9/2 — suggesting the public doesn't fully agree with our model, creating a potential overlay.

win1SqualotoroML 9/2

Squalotoro leads all horses in this field with an 83.10 TrackWiz rating and posts the top average speed figure in the race at 55 — a full tick above the next group. Trainer Carson Frey puts Antonio Ambrosio Reyes on board, a combination that has been active throughout today's card. A 12% career win rate is workable, and at 9/2, the price is genuinely attractive for a horse our model rates this clearly above the competition in a 6-furlong dirt sprint where early speed and raw figures dominate.

place8Jump the QueueML 8/1

Jump the Queue is a standout place play at 8/1 on the morning line with a 79.79 rating — second in the field — and the best career win percentage among our top three picks at 25%. Trainer Tom Rycroft sends out Brian Boodramsingh, and with an average speed of 52, this horse will be tracking the pace rather than setting it. At 8/1, you're getting excellent place value on a horse who could easily flip the exacta with Squalotoro.

show2Zip It WritML 7/2

Zip It Writ rates third at 76.96 and opens at 7/2 — one of the shorter prices among our picks, reflecting public respect for this runner. Trainer William H. Leech puts Alexander Marti in the irons, and a 16% career win rate gives this horse genuine winning credentials. An average speed of 52 keeps her competitive at the 6-furlong distance, and she's a logical trifecta anchor at a price that ensures she'll be well-backed.

Race 9

3:59 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The day's deepest field — ten horses in allowance optional claiming company at 6½ furlongs — anchored by a horse with a 50% career win rate who stands alone at the top of our ratings.

win9Goldie MonroeML 3/1

Goldie Monroe is simply in a class of her own here. A 87.08 TrackWiz rating leads the field by 15 points, and a 50% career win rate is extraordinary — one of the most impressive figures you'll see in any field on this card. Trainer Geovani Olalde sends her out with Amadeo Perez, and an average speed of 54 is tied for the best in this race. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's not an overlay, but the resume is so strong that she's the clear best bet of the race on merit alone.

place4Magic MollyML 10/1

Magic Molly opens at 10/1 as our place pick with a 72.14 rating — second in the field by a comfortable margin — and a 33% career win rate that screams consistent performer. Trainer Mel Snow uses Brian Boodramsingh, and an average speed of 53 keeps her right in contention with the pace group. The 10/1 morning line is a genuine value opportunity for a horse this high in our model, and she's a must-use in exacta and trifecta tickets under Goldie Monroe.

show7InxpressML 6/1

Inxpress rates third in the field at 55.41 and opens at 6/1 for trainer Karline Kingston with Antonio Whitehall up. A 14% career win rate and average speed of 53 paint the picture of a consistent claimer who finds the board regularly. In a ten-horse field at allowance optional claiming level, securing the trifecta with a solid third option at a fair price is the disciplined play — and Inxpress fits that role well.

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Century Downs has a clean, fast-looking card in front of it today. Our top plays are First Flash the Moon to set the tone in Race 1, Sunday Rain and Swift Kahuna to carry the free-pick momentum through the maiden races — and for subscribers, keep a close eye on Ah Touche as a potential value bomb in Race 6. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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