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Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 20269 racesAll Canterbury Park picks

Canterbury Park is rolling out a full 9-race card this Saturday, September 19, and the conditions are about as ideal as a Minnesota fall afternoon gets — overcast skies and a crisp 64°F that should keep the turf surfaces playing honest and firm. If you like grass racing, today is your day: five of nine races are contested on the turf, including a pair of maiden specials and a potentially wide-open allowance in Race 3.

The centerpiece of the card is Race 7, a 6-furlong dirt stakes where our top-rated contender Rhyme Away draws in at 5/2 on the morning line. But don't sleep on the rest of the card — there's plenty of value to dig into across both surfaces, from the maiden ranks to a couple of claiming races that could produce some juicy overlays at the windows.

Three races are free and open to all TrackWiz readers today. The remaining six are part of our premium full-card breakdown. Here's how the day shapes up.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where the top five horses are separated by fewer than seven rating points — expect a competitive pace and a tight finish at the wire.

win5Shimmering JadeML 5/2

Shimmering Jade draws our top rating in this field at 57.5 and posts the best average speed figure of the group at 56 — that's a meaningful edge in a maiden field where a tick of raw ability can be the difference. Trainer Nik G. Goodwin also saddles Avos Rose in this same race, which tells you this barn is confident enough in both runners to double-dip. At 5/2 on the morning line, Jade is fairly priced but not overbet, and jockey Betty Jo Williams gets the call.

place4H'ray for BombayML 3/1

H'ray for Bombay comes in as the morning-line favorite at 3/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and an average speed of 54, matching Tactical Gamble but with a better overall profile. Julio A. Hernandez aboard gives this one a reliable pilot for a 7½-furlong turf trip where tactical positioning matters. If Shimmering Jade gets the better break, Bombay looks like the most natural runner-up.

show2Mo's Classy LadyML 4/1

Mo's Classy Lady holds a 55.0 rating and checks in with an average speed of 53, which is solid for a maiden turf opener. Trainer Lynn Rarick keeps her competitive on the grass, and at 4/1 she offers enough value to anchor the bottom of your exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 2

9:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Five-furlong maiden sprint on the dirt with Copper Vixen standing out on ratings, though several first-time starters make pace projection tricky — anything can happen in a field this green.

win5Copper VixenML 3/1

Copper Vixen tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and carries an average speed of 53 into this five-furlong dash, posting the strongest composite profile in the field. Eduardo Gallardo gets the mount, and trainer Stacey Rushton has the horse pointing here at 3/1 — a price that reflects legitimate public confidence. In a short dirt sprint where speed and quick acceleration are everything, Copper Vixen looks best equipped to handle the distance.

place4Perfect GiftML 7/2

Perfect Gift comes in at 55.83 on our ratings with Kelsi Harr up for trainer Robert N. Cline — no published average speed figure, which suggests this could be a first-out runner whose upside is still unknown. That mystery factor is exactly why 7/2 on the morning line is attractive for the place slot; if she shows any early dash, she could run right into the exacta.

show3Golden StrideML 4/1

Golden Stride rates third in the field at 55.0 with Jermaine V. Bridgmohan getting the call for trainer Patrick Fields. Like Perfect Gift, no prior speed figure is on record, hinting at limited or debut experience — but Bridgmohan is one of the more capable pilots on the Canterbury circuit and can nurse a green horse through a five-furlong scramble. Worth using underneath in trifectas.

Race 3

10:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Erika Marie and Kaitskate dominate the ratings in this allowance turf route, but both are priced generously enough that the race sets up as a two-horse battle with real value on top.

win7Erika MarieML 6/1

Erika Marie is the standout value in this spot — she carries the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 82.71 and a 33% career win rate, yet the morning line has her at 6/1. That's the kind of overlay that gets TrackWiz analysts excited. Trainer Robert N. Cline puts Kelsi Harr in the irons, and with an average speed of 54 over 7½ furlongs of turf, Erika Marie profiles as a horse who runs her best at this distance and surface. Don't let that price fool you — this is our top pick.

place9KaitskateML 3/1

Kaitskate is nearly as strong, posting a 81.47 rating and carrying a 12% career win rate — not flashy, but consistent. Constantino Roman rides for trainer Joel Berndt, who saddles Kaia's Choice in the same race, showing confidence in both runners. At 3/1, Kaitskate is appropriately priced as a place contender and could easily flip the result on Erika Marie.

show5Aunt Gwen'sML 8/1

Aunt Gwen's is the most intriguing price in the show slot at 8/1 — her 63.12 rating is a significant step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Michael E. Biehler and jockey Sachin Parris combine here, and with a 54 average speed on the grass, she's capable of latching onto the pace and grinding out a piece. An 8/1 show horse in an exotic is excellent insurance.

Our three complimentary picks span the early part of the card and cover both surfaces. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf at 7½ furlongs — a distance that rewards horses who can rate and finish, and Shimmering Jade (5/2 ML, TrackWiz rating 57.5) fits that profile best among the maiden field. On the dirt in Race 2, Copper Vixen lands at 3/1 on a straight 5-furlong sprint where early speed is king — watch the break closely. Race 3 is the most intriguing of the free trio: an allowance grass route where Erika Marie stands out at a generous 6/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71, suggesting she may be underestimated by the oddsmakers.

The turf appears to be playing evenly today — no dramatic rail bias expected — so horses with legitimate grass form should run true to their numbers. The mild temperatures also remove any heat-related pace meltdowns from the equation, which tends to produce more honest, predictable races. A good day to trust your handicapping.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Strike Commander enters with a dominant 88.54 rating — the biggest gap between a top pick and the rest of the field we've seen all card — making this one of the cleaner betting races of the day.

win1Strike CommanderML 2/1

Strike Commander is simply in a class of his own here based on TrackWiz analysis — an 88.54 rating that is more than 30 points clear of the next-highest contender in this maiden field. Eduardo Gallardo takes the mount for trainer Valorie Lund, and the morning line has him as the 2/1 favorite — deserved, even if the price is modest. An average speed of 53 at six furlongs on the dirt is workable, and with this kind of rating edge, there's no reason to look elsewhere for the win.

place3Candy ArcML 3/1

Candy Arc slots in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 rating and draws the services of Luis A. Fuentes for trainer Tim P. Padilla. No average speed figure is on record, which adds some uncertainty, but the rating and the price suggest the connections are pointing this one here with purpose. She's the logical second horse if Strike Commander does the expected.

show6Hey Baby MikkoML 7/2

Hey Baby Mikko posts the best average speed figure among the non-Strike Commander runners at 55 — a legitimate differentiator in a maiden field where most horses are bunched. Kelsi Harr rides for trainer Tony Rengstorf, and at 7/2 there's solid value for the show spot. If the pace gets heated up front, Hey Baby Mikko's ability to sustain her speed could see her running into the money.

Race 5

11:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A full ten-horse claiming field on the turf going a mile and 70 yards, with Caught Off Guard and Mr Fabricator both posting dominant ratings — but Mr Fabricator at 8/1 might be the ticket for value players.

win1Caught Off GuardML 4/1

Caught Off Guard leads our ratings at 80.3 with a 17% career win rate and a 54 average speed — balanced numbers that suggest a reliable, class-appropriate performer. Constantino Roman picks up the mount for trainer Joel Berndt, and at 4/1 the morning line treats this horse fairly without creating an overlay. Over a mile and 70 yards on the turf, a horse with a steady win rate and above-average rating is exactly the profile you want.

place8Mr FabricatorML 8/1

Mr Fabricator is the value play of this race — a 79.79 rating nearly matching our top pick, a 23% career win rate, and yet priced at 8/1 on the morning line. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Lynn Rarick, and with a 54 average speed at this distance, the profile fits the race perfectly. That morning line discrepancy between rating and odds is a gift for exacta players.

show10StradivarianML 7/2

Stradivarian checks in at 59.26 on our ratings and brings a 19% career win rate — the second-best in the field — to this claiming route. Jose Riquelme gets the call for trainer Edgar Espinoza, who also saddles Hot Legs Romolo and Stability in this race, showing serious barn presence. At 7/2, Stradivarian isn't cheap, but the win rate and consistent speed back up the price.

Race 6

11:40 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Twelve horses line up for this five-furlong turf sprint under allowance optional claiming conditions — Flatter Me Billy leads the ratings, but Big Pop's 43% career win rate at 8/1 is the number that jumps off the page.

win5Flatter Me BillyML 7/2

Flatter Me Billy tops this deep field with an 83.33 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate — both strong indicators for a horse expected to compete at this level. Manuel Americano takes the mount for trainer Stacey Rushton, and the 7/2 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. An average speed of 53 over five furlongs of turf is slightly below some rivals, but the overall rating edge and win percentage make this the most complete profile in the field.

place2Big PopML 8/1

Big Pop is the most compelling value angle on this entire card — a 43% career win rate is extraordinary, and yet the morning line has him at 8/1. Trainer Esteban Martinez sends him out with Fausto Henrique Da Silva up, and an average speed of 57 is among the best in this race. The win rate alone suggests this horse has been competing at a level where he finishes in front of rivals regularly, and at 8/1, he's worth a serious look well beyond the place slot.

show6September MagicML 6/1

September Magic carries a 76.73 rating and a 14% career win rate, with an average speed of 57 that ties for the best in the field alongside Birdie Be Gone and Call'em All. Julio A. Hernandez rides for trainer McLean Robertson, who also has Call'em All in here — so the barn has multiple bullets. At 6/1, September Magic is a sensible show selection who could easily run into the exacta.

Race 7

12:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The stakes race is headlined by Rhyme Away's elite 87.81 rating, but My Kid's Said No at 2/1 and a 50% career win rate makes this a two-horse affair that could hinge on pace and the six-furlong dirt setup.

win1Rhyme AwayML 5/2

Rhyme Away heads this stakes field with the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and a 66% career win rate — numbers that stand out even in stakes company. Manuel Americano handles the riding duties for trainer Troy A. Bethke, and an average speed of 55 at six furlongs on the dirt is a comfortable fit. The morning line has Rhyme Away at 5/2, which is fair for a horse with that kind of win percentage, and our analysis has him as the most complete package in this field.

place8My Kid's Said NoML 2/1

My Kid's Said No comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite despite ranking second in our ratings at 78.83 — public handicappers may be leaning on the 50% career win rate, which is genuinely impressive. Fausto Henrique Da Silva rides for trainer Tena Birdwell, and the 55 average speed matches Rhyme Away exactly. The pace scenario between these two could be close enough that finishing order is a coin flip, making 2/1 on the place a decent hedge.

show7Strike One MoreML 10/1

Strike One More sits at 10/1 on the morning line but posts a 69.2 TrackWiz rating and carries a 33% career win rate — respectable in a stakes field. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and while the gap to the top two is real, a 54 average speed and that win percentage suggest this horse can hang around long enough to grab a piece at a generous price. A fine trifecta fill at double-digit odds.

Race 8

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Vesper Chicks and Kind Kismet are separated by just 0.01 rating points in this six-furlong dirt claiming race — a dead heat on paper that sets up a thrilling real-world battle between two evenly matched runners.

win7Vesper ChicksML 4/1

Vesper Chicks edges out the ratings crown at 85.62 — essentially a tie with Kind Kismet — and Luis A. Fuentes gets the mount for trainer Tim P. Padilla, who is particularly active on this card. At 4/1 on the morning line, the value is there for a horse at the top of the claiming class ratings, and an average speed of 55 is strong for a six-furlong dirt sprint. When two horses are this close on metrics, we lean to the one with the slight rating edge and the better morning-line value.

place3Kind KismetML 5/2

Kind Kismet is essentially a co-top selection at 85.61 — one one-hundredth of a rating point behind Vesper Chicks — and at 5/2 she's the shortest-priced horse in our picks for this race. Carlos Joan Ulloa rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and an 18% career win rate is solid for a claiming runner. The place slot suits her perfectly: if she can't overtake Vesper Chicks at the wire, she'll almost certainly be second.

show8BarbsdreamcometrueML 5/1

Barbsdreamcometrue posts a strong 81.08 rating with a 10% career win rate and a 54 average speed — a step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Constantino Roman rides for trainer Tim P. Padilla, who also has Vesper Chicks in here, giving the barn two serious chances. At 5/1, this is a logical show horse and trifecta component in a race where the top three are meaningfully separated from the rest.

Race 9

1:10 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Mischievous Al dominates this allowance mile on dirt with an 87.81 rating, but That Type Ofa Deal's 33% career win rate at 4/1 makes the exacta one of the more attractive plays on the closing race of the card.

win5Mischievous AlML 5/2

Mischievous Al is the class of this field — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that leads the race comfortably, paired with a 14% career win rate and a 55 average speed at one mile on the dirt. Julio A. Hernandez takes the mount for trainer McLean Robertson, one of the more active trainers on today's card. At 5/2, the morning line is honest, and this horse checks every box for an allowance mile: the rating, the jockey, the distance suitability.

place7That Type Ofa DealML 4/1

That Type Ofa Deal brings a 33% career win rate to this spot — the best in the field — and a 76.82 rating that makes him a clear second choice in our analysis. Manuel Americano rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and an average speed of 53 fits the mile distance. At 4/1, this horse represents genuine value; a win rate that high in an allowance field suggests a horse who consistently gets his nose in front, and he should be right there at the finish.

show2TamarackML 5/1

Tamarack slots in third in our ratings at 55.54 with a 14% career win rate and a 54 average speed — modest numbers, but enough to earn a spot in the show position against this field. Jermaine V. Bridgmohan rides for trainer Ty J. Garrett, and at 5/1 there's reasonable value for a horse who could find himself on the heels of the top two if the pace sets up favorably. Use him in trifectas as your third leg.

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Bottom line: today's Canterbury card has genuine depth. Rhyme Away in the Race 7 stakes is the marquee play, Erika Marie at 6/1 in Race 3 is our standout free-card value, and the turf-heavy card under cool, stable conditions sets up for a day where good handicapping gets rewarded. Get the full breakdown — pace projections, exotic plays, and all six premium races — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck at the windows today.

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