Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

Kaitskate is nearly as strong, posting a 81.47 rating and carrying a 12% career win rate — not flashy, but consistent. Constantino Roman rides for trainer Joel Berndt, who saddles Kaia's Choice in the same race, showing confidence in both runners. At 3/1, Kaitskate is appropriately priced as a place contender and could easily flip the result on Erika Marie.

Aunt Gwen's is the most intriguing price in the show slot at 8/1 — her 63.12 rating is a significant step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Michael E. Biehler and jockey Sachin Parris combine here, and with a 54 average speed on the grass, she's capable of latching onto the pace and grinding out a piece. An 8/1 show horse in an exotic is excellent insurance.

Candy Arc slots in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 rating and draws the services of Luis A. Fuentes for trainer Tim P. Padilla. No average speed figure is on record, which adds some uncertainty, but the rating and the price suggest the connections are pointing this one here with purpose. She's the logical second horse if Strike Commander does the expected.

Hey Baby Mikko posts the best average speed figure among the non-Strike Commander runners at 55 — a legitimate differentiator in a maiden field where most horses are bunched. Kelsi Harr rides for trainer Tony Rengstorf, and at 7/2 there's solid value for the show spot. If the pace gets heated up front, Hey Baby Mikko's ability to sustain her speed could see her running into the money.

Mr Fabricator is the value play of this race — a 79.79 rating nearly matching our top pick, a 23% career win rate, and yet priced at 8/1 on the morning line. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Lynn Rarick, and with a 54 average speed at this distance, the profile fits the race perfectly. That morning line discrepancy between rating and odds is a gift for exacta players.

Stradivarian checks in at 59.26 on our ratings and brings a 19% career win rate — the second-best in the field — to this claiming route. Jose Riquelme gets the call for trainer Edgar Espinoza, who also saddles Hot Legs Romolo and Stability in this race, showing serious barn presence. At 7/2, Stradivarian isn't cheap, but the win rate and consistent speed back up the price.

Big Pop is the most compelling value angle on this entire card — a 43% career win rate is extraordinary, and yet the morning line has him at 8/1. Trainer Esteban Martinez sends him out with Fausto Henrique Da Silva up, and an average speed of 57 is among the best in this race. The win rate alone suggests this horse has been competing at a level where he finishes in front of rivals regularly, and at 8/1, he's worth a serious look well beyond the place slot.

September Magic carries a 76.73 rating and a 14% career win rate, with an average speed of 57 that ties for the best in the field alongside Birdie Be Gone and Call'em All. Julio A. Hernandez rides for trainer McLean Robertson, who also has Call'em All in here — so the barn has multiple bullets. At 6/1, September Magic is a sensible show selection who could easily run into the exacta.

My Kid's Said No comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite despite ranking second in our ratings at 78.83 — public handicappers may be leaning on the 50% career win rate, which is genuinely impressive. Fausto Henrique Da Silva rides for trainer Tena Birdwell, and the 55 average speed matches Rhyme Away exactly. The pace scenario between these two could be close enough that finishing order is a coin flip, making 2/1 on the place a decent hedge.

Strike One More sits at 10/1 on the morning line but posts a 69.2 TrackWiz rating and carries a 33% career win rate — respectable in a stakes field. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and while the gap to the top two is real, a 54 average speed and that win percentage suggest this horse can hang around long enough to grab a piece at a generous price. A fine trifecta fill at double-digit odds.

Kind Kismet is essentially a co-top selection at 85.61 — one one-hundredth of a rating point behind Vesper Chicks — and at 5/2 she's the shortest-priced horse in our picks for this race. Carlos Joan Ulloa rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and an 18% career win rate is solid for a claiming runner. The place slot suits her perfectly: if she can't overtake Vesper Chicks at the wire, she'll almost certainly be second.

Barbsdreamcometrue posts a strong 81.08 rating with a 10% career win rate and a 54 average speed — a step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Constantino Roman rides for trainer Tim P. Padilla, who also has Vesper Chicks in here, giving the barn two serious chances. At 5/1, this is a logical show horse and trifecta component in a race where the top three are meaningfully separated from the rest.

That Type Ofa Deal brings a 33% career win rate to this spot — the best in the field — and a 76.82 rating that makes him a clear second choice in our analysis. Manuel Americano rides for trainer Joel Berndt, and an average speed of 53 fits the mile distance. At 4/1, this horse represents genuine value; a win rate that high in an allowance field suggests a horse who consistently gets his nose in front, and he should be right there at the finish.

Tamarack slots in third in our ratings at 55.54 with a 14% career win rate and a 54 average speed — modest numbers, but enough to earn a spot in the show position against this field. Jermaine V. Bridgmohan rides for trainer Ty J. Garrett, and at 5/1 there's reasonable value for a horse who could find himself on the heels of the top two if the pace sets up favorably. Use him in trifectas as your third leg.