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Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

August 16, 20267 racesAll Canterbury Park picks

It's a beautiful Sunday afternoon at Canterbury Park — 77°F with partly cloudy skies, which is about as good as it gets for a summer card in Shakopee. Conditions look favorable across the board, and with three turf races on a dry, firm surface, we could see some sharp speed figures posted today.

Seven races are on the card, mixing allowance company, claiming races, and a pair of maiden special weight events. The surface split is notable — four turf routes and three dirt sprints — so pace scenarios will shift dramatically from race to race. That kind of variety is exactly where prep work pays off.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all seven races. The first three are on us — no subscription needed. Races 4 through 7 are reserved for premium members, and trust us, there's a longshot angle in Race 6 that's worth the look.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A short 5-furlong turf sprint with a clear class standout at the top, but the morning line suggests the public will load up on two horses — making the third wheel in the top trio worth a hard look for exotic players.

win5BodenheimerML 8/5

Bodenheimer is the most complete horse in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the highest in the race — while carrying a 31% career win rate that is simply elite for this level. Trained by Jose Silva, Jr., who also saddles stablemate Athens Moon, the connections clearly like this horse's chances enough to wheel out both runners. At 8/5 on the morning line, he's not a value play, but his average speed figure of 58 leads the field and justifies the chalk. Manuel Americano takes the mount, and the 5-furlong turf sprint is a sharp tactical test — one Bodenheimer's numbers say he's well-equipped to handle.

place3It's Bobs BusinessML 3/1

It's Bobs Business (No. 3) earns a TrackWiz rating of 81.56, the second-best mark in the field, and his 57 average speed figure is second only to Bodenheimer and Pat's Paddock Pick in this sprint. At 3/1 on the morning line, trainer McLean Robertson's runner offers solid place value in a race where the favorite should absorb most of the public money. Eduardo Gallardo rides, and this horse profiles as the most likely to run Bodenheimer down if the chalk hits any traffic or runs into pace trouble.

show6Pat's Paddock PickML 5/2

Pat's Paddock Pick (No. 6) ties Bodenheimer at a 58 average speed figure and brings a strong 29% career win rate to the table, making him dangerous at 5/2 on the morning line. Constantino Roman gets the call for trainer Esteban Martinez, and the combination of raw speed and proven winning ability makes this horse a natural show-ticket anchor — and a real threat to beat the favorite outright if the pace sets up favorably for a presser.

Race 2

6:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Queen Atlas looks like a boat-race favorite on paper, but the 7/5 morning line price in a five-horse claiming sprint means value is elsewhere — the secondary picks at 3/1 and 2/1 may be where the smart money goes.

win3Queen AtlasML 7/5

Queen Atlas (No. 3) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at an impressive 89.42 — a dominant figure in this claiming company. Her 20% career win rate is middle-of-the-pack on paper, but paired with that rating it signals she's been running against tougher competition than she faces today. Manuel Americano pilots her for the Jose Silva, Jr. barn, which is a sharp jockey-trainer hook-up worth noting. At 7/5 on the morning line she won't pay much, but the numbers say she's the right horse.

place5PaarlML 3/1

Paarl (No. 5) is the most interesting place horse in this race, checking in with a TrackWiz rating of 64.08 and an 18% career win rate that shows she knows how to find the winner's circle. Eduardo Gallardo gets the mount for trainer Stacey Rushton, and at 3/1 she offers legitimate place value in a race the favorite is expected to dominate. If Queen Atlas runs into any trouble in a short 6-furlong dash, Paarl has the back class to capitalize.

show4Smart With HeartML 2/1

Smart With Heart (No. 4) comes in at a 59.54 rating — third-best in the field — and while the 8% career win rate is modest, trainer Edgar Espinoza's runner has shown she can compete at this level. Alonso Quinonez rides, and at 2/1 on the morning line she's priced as the second choice, which makes her a reliable show-ticket anchor. In a short field of five, the math alone helps her hit the board.

Race 3

7:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The Jose Silva, Jr. barn doubles up again with two runners at contrasting odds, but a 7 1/2-furlong turf route gives closers and pace-setters alike room to breathe — this one could get tactical fast.

win5Rose ViewML 8/5

Rose View (No. 5) leads all runners in this allowance optional claiming route with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 and the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a meaningful edge in a race where most of the field is clustered right at 53. Her 24% career win rate is strong for this class level, and Constantino Roman is a reliable hand in a seven-and-a-half-furlong turf route that rewards pace savvy. Trainer Jose Silva, Jr. is comfortable at Canterbury and has the horses to prove it — Rose View is the pick.

place1Dutton Street GirlML 9/2

Dutton Street Girl (No. 1) is the most intriguing place contender in this race, posting a 73.24 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate that gives her legitimate winning credentials if the favorite stumbles. Manuel Americano is up for the same Jose Silva, Jr. stable, meaning the barn is loaded for bear today and both horses figure to get their best shots. Drawing the rail at 9/2 on the morning line in a turf route is not an automatic advantage, but a clean break puts her in position to stalk the pace and pounce.

show2Rebel GalML 5/2

Rebel Gal (No. 2) holds a 64.91 TrackWiz rating and checks in at 5/2 on the morning line, making her the second public choice. Jose Riquelme rides for Bennie L. Woolley, Jr., and while her 12% career win rate is modest, her profile as a pace-presser in a route race where others may battle early could see her pick up the pieces late. She's a sensible show-ticket piece in an honest turf route.

Our three free races give you a nice cross-section of today's card. Bodenheimer opens the day on the turf in Race 1 at 5 furlongs — an 8/5 morning line that our models think is right in line with the true probability, making this a solid play rather than a value trap. In Race 2, Queen Atlas takes on the dirt at 6 furlongs in a claiming field where her TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is the best on the board. She's the kind of horse who dictates pace and doesn't look back. Race 3 shifts back to turf for a 7½-furlong allowance optional claimer, and Rose View earns the top spot with an 89.12 rating — same number as Bodenheimer, which speaks to the overall class consistency across today's free picks.

One thread tying these three together: all three top picks are on the shorter end of the morning line, which tells you the public is already tracking these horses. The value in the free races may be in the exotics — keying these selections in exactas and using them as a base for the pick 3 rather than betting them straight could stretch your dollar further on what shapes up as a chalk-friendly opening sequence.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:40 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Miracle Ball towers over this starter optional claiming field — when one horse checks in at a 43% career win rate at 6/5 on the morning line, you're essentially handicapping for place and show.

win3Miracle BallML 6/5

Miracle Ball (No. 3) is simply in a class of her own here, boasting a 43% career win rate that is almost unheard of in a claiming-level race and a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — the top mark on the card. Her average speed figure of 55 leads this five-horse field, and Luis A. Fuentes has the mount for trainer Ruben Fuentes — a family combination that clearly knows this horse's preferences well. At 6/5 she's short money, but the data says she's as close to a certainty as racing gets. Play her to win and build your exotic strategies around her.

place4Bella MendyML 7/2

Bella Mendy (No. 4) brings a TrackWiz rating of 63.38 to the table — second-best in the field — and Betty Jo Williams pilots her for trainer Nik G. Goodwin. Her 17% career win rate is solid enough to suggest she can hit the board consistently when not facing a horse of Miracle Ball's caliber. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's a fair price for a place ticket and the natural exotic partner for the heavy favorite.

show2SmoocherroML 3/1

Smoocherro (No. 2) earns a 59.32 TrackWiz rating and carries a 26% career win rate that actually outpaces her 3/1 morning line price relative to the field. Fausto Henrique Da Silva rides for trainer Tena Birdwell, and in a short five-horse field, this is exactly the type of horse you want underneath in exactas and trifectas — consistent enough to hang around and collect while Miracle Ball leads the parade. The show ticket here looks like the safe play.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A full maiden special weight field on the turf at 7 1/2 furlongs — no career wins in the group means form is murky, but the TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top tier from the rest, and this race has genuine exacta value.

win8Lieutenant CharmML 9/2

Lieutenant Charm (No. 8) tops our ratings at 84.90 — the highest mark among the maidens — and while the entire field is winless, his profile stands apart. Luis A. Fuentes gets the call for trainer Joel Berndt, and the 9/2 morning line represents genuine overlay value given the rating edge he holds over most of the field. His 53 average speed figure is in line with the top tier, but it's the overall rating that separates him — TrackWiz analysis suggests he's been closer to breaking through than his maiden tag indicates. In a route race on the turf where fitness and tactical positioning matter, he's our top play.

place7Tap the KidML 5/2

Tap the Kid (No. 7) posts the field's best average speed figure at 54 and a TrackWiz rating of 80.81 — second only to Lieutenant Charm. Eduardo Gallardo is aboard for Martin Escobar, a trainer who knows how to get maidens ready, and the 5/2 morning line makes him the co-second choice. This horse profiles as a speed player in a turf route, which can be a risky setup if the pace gets honest, but the raw figure advantage is real. A strong pace scenario where he gets a clean lead could have him on the front end all the way.

show3English IconML 3/1

English Icon (No. 3) checks in with a 73.85 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and draws the 3/1 morning line as one of the public's top selections. Leslie Mawing rides for trainer Valorie Lund, and this horse's profile as a turf router with a solid underlying rating makes him a logical show anchor in a maiden field with no proven winners. In a nine-horse field, the show pool can pay meaningfully if the top two choices run first and second — English Icon is the right insurance play.

Race 6

8:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden dirt sprint with every horse at zero career wins and a clustered set of ratings — the TrackWiz numbers favor a surprising 8/1 shot over the public's heavy choice, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win3JackfireML 8/1

Jackfire (No. 3) carries the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 59.52, which is a meaningful edge when the ratings are this tightly bunched — and he's available at 8/1 on the morning line while the public hammers down the 9/5 favorite. Sachin Parris rides for Bennie L. Woolley, Jr., a trainer who has shown the ability to get maiden sprinters sharp. His 53 average speed figure is right in the mix with the top contenders, and the value case here is simple: the ratings say he's the best horse, the morning line says he's not — that gap is where we find value. This is our top overlay play of the card.

place7TappyML 9/5

Tappy (No. 7) is the public's 9/5 favorite and posts a 58.67 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — so the speed figure crowd will push him down further. Manuel Americano is an excellent fit in a 5-furlong dirt sprint for trainer Joel Berndt. Even if you prefer Jackfire on top, Tappy is too good to leave off your place and exacta combinations at a short price that still pays something.

show4Strike One MoreML 5/2

Strike One More (No. 4) earns a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and carries the field's top average speed figure at 54 — a number that matters in a 5-furlong dash where raw early quickness is at a premium. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Joel Berndt, the same barn that has Tappy in this race, which is worth noting — Berndt clearly has a strong opinion about his chances if he's doubling up. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's a fair show play and a natural exotic partner for the top two picks.

Race 7

9:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claiming race with a legit standout on top and a pair of closers lurking at tasty prices — the pace scenario over a full mile sets up beautifully for an upset-minded play underneath.

win2Matt's LuckML 2/1

Matt's Luck (No. 2) leads this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate over what our analysis suggests is a tougher book of competition than he faces today. Eduardo Gallardo is one of the sharpest riders in the Canterbury jock colony and saddles up for trainer McLean Robertson — a strong combination that gives this runner a tactical edge in a route race where positioning off the pace matters. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a screaming value play, but the numbers strongly support him as the most capable horse in the field. His 54 average speed figure is tied for the best in the race.

place1Found JordanML 3/1

Found Jordan (No. 1) posts a 76.33 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and Jose Riquelme gets the mount for trainer Virginia Peters in what looks like a well-spotted effort. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's a reasonable price for a horse with genuine form and a 12% career win rate on the board. Drawing the rail in a one-mile turf route isn't always ideal, but in a six-horse field the traffic concerns are reduced — if Riquelme can keep him off the fence and find clear running, he's a serious place threat.

show5Shotgun RunnerML 5/1

Shotgun Runner (No. 5) earns a 70.23 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this six-horse field — and carries a 12% career win rate that is competitive at this claiming level. Manuel Americano rides for the ever-active Jose Silva, Jr. barn, which consistently puts runners in position to hit the board. At 5/1 on the morning line, he offers the best show value in the race, and in a turf route that could get contested up front between the top speeds, a pace-stalker at this price is exactly the kind of horse to have underneath in trifectas.

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Today's Canterbury card is well-rounded and very playable — Bodenheimer, Queen Atlas, and Rose View headline the free analysis, and the premium side offers a genuine overlay angle in Race 6 and a strong pace-driven setup in the closing turf mile. Seven races, good weather, and some real handicapping opportunities. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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