Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026
It's a scorching Saturday at Canterbury Park — clear skies, 89 degrees, and eight races on the dirt and turf to keep you glued to the monitor all afternoon. Conditions are about as ideal as you'll get in Minnesota midsummer, and a fast, dry main track should reward horses with early speed and clean trips.
Today's card is a nice mix of conditions: allowances, claimers, a maiden special weight sprint, and a pair of turf routes that could get interesting if the grass plays true to form. Three of our top picks are carrying morning lines of 9/5, so the chalk is looking tasty on paper — but as always, there's value hiding deeper in these fields if you know where to look.
We've got full TrackWiz ratings and analysis across all 8 races. The first three are on us — free for every reader. Races 4 through 8 are where the serious money is, and those are reserved for subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt
A clear top-rated contender draws clear on the TrackWiz numbers, but the morning line suggests the crowd agrees — so the real intrigue is whether the second and third tier can pack a punch in the exotics.
Mr in Personal (#7) owns the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.83 and comes in as the 9/5 morning-line favorite — the market and our model are aligned here. Jockey Alonso Quinonez gets the call, and at 7 furlongs on the dirt, this is a trip that sets up well for a horse with that kind of raw rating edge over the field. The career win percentage of 10% isn't flashy, but the sheer separation in rating — nearly 10 points ahead of the next horse — is the story. Trainer Tim P. Padilla keeps this one sharp, and at close to even money, you're essentially backing the numbers.
Phantom Express (#5) posts a solid 79.04 rating and checks in at 5/1 on the morning line, offering real value if you're building exotics around the favorite. The 14% career win rate is respectable in this spot, and with an average speed figure of 55 matching the top tier, trainer Esteban Martinez has this horse competitive on pure ability. If Mr in Personal gets into early trouble, Phantom Express has the profile to capitalize.
Mischievous Al (#4) brings the field's best career win percentage at 25% — a number that stands out in a field where most are hitting single digits. The 76.31 rating and 55 average speed back up that record, and trainer McLean Robertson consistently puts horses in position to hit the board. At 4/1, Al is a natural fit in trifecta coverage and a solid hedge if the top two get tangled up in pace.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
McLean Robertson saddles two of the top three on the TrackWiz ratings — a rare barn domination angle that makes this race fascinating from a trainer-pattern perspective.
T C Gold (#4) edges out stablemate Paw Allen with the field's top rating of 86.35, and at 7/2 on the morning line there's a sliver of value versus the 2/1 barn companion. Trainer McLean Robertson clearly has both horses cranked up, but our model gives the nod to #4 in a race where the edge matters. Jockey Jermaine V. Bridgmohan has the experience to manage the pace scenario in a 6-furlong dirt sprint, and a 12% career win rate is workmanlike for this level. When the ratings this closely mirror the morning line and still offer a point of value, that's a play worth making.
Paw Allen (#5) is the one horse in this field with a jaw-dropping 40% career win rate — that's not a typo, and you don't rack up numbers like that without some serious ability. The 85.84 rating is essentially a dead heat with T C Gold at the top, and Manuel Americano is a sharp pick for a barn that's firing on both cylinders. At 2/1, Paw Allen is the horse the public will gravitate toward, and for good reason — it's the safer place ticket in this race.
It's Miles (#1) rates third in the field at 72.75 and comes in at a fair 9/2 morning line, making it a natural show horse for exacta and trifecta construction. The 11% career win rate and 52 average speed won't wow anyone, but trainer Joel Berndt has this one placed correctly for the level. If the Robertson duo runs 1-2, It's Miles has the rating to hold down third.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Riverside looms as a class standout in this mile allowance optional claimer, posting a field-best rating and drawing the top jockey-trainer combination — but the 8/5 morning line leaves little margin for error.
Riverside (#1) leads all entrants with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and goes postward as the 8/5 chalk — the model and the oddsmakers are pointing the same direction. A 15% career win rate is solid for the allowance optional claiming ranks, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside R N R Audible. Jockey Luis A. Fuentes has the mount for trainer Jose Silva Jr., a combination that carries real confidence at a mile on the dirt. The main knock is the price — you're giving up overlay to play the top-rated horse, so this one's best used as the anchor in exotics.
Sir Exton (#4) is the logical danger horse here, posting a 75.08 rating and a very respectable 20% career win rate at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Robert N. Cline sends him out with Kelsi Harr aboard, and the numbers suggest he's capable of running Riverside down if the favorite takes back or gets into traffic at a mile. The place price figures to be fair enough to justify including #4 as the main alternative in your exacta wheel.
Steam Powered (#5) brings an 18% career win rate — one of the better numbers in the field — and a 67.65 rating that puts him solidly in the third-place conversation at 9/2. Trainer Jon G. Arnett places horses to hit the board, and Manuel Americano knows how to rate a closer in a route. If the pace up front gets honest, Steam Powered is the horse most likely to be gaining late.
Our three free races today span the full spectrum of the card. Race 1 kicks things off over 7 furlongs of dirt with Mr in Personal (9/5 morning line, 88.83 TrackWiz rating) drawing our top mark — a strong way to open the afternoon. Race 2 shortens to 6 furlongs and T C Gold (7/2) catches our eye as a potential overlay, carrying solid ratings at a price that offers real value if the field sets up right. Then Race 3 stretches out to a flat mile in allowance optional claiming company, and Riverside leads the entire card with an 89.12 rating — the highest score we've posted today. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's the closest thing to a banker we've got on this card.
The through-line across these three free picks: all three are on dirt, all three figure to benefit from what should be a consistent, fast surface in this heat. Watch for how the early speed holds up in Race 1 — it'll give you a read on pace scenarios for the rest of the card.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today at Canterbury: Riverside in Race 3 is the top-rated horse on the entire card and our marquee free play. Mr in Personal and T C Gold round out a strong opening trio worth following. For the back half of the card — turf routes, a tricky maiden sprint, and claiming races with real wagering teeth — the full analysis is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and let's have a big Saturday.