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Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — August 29, 2026

August 29, 20268 racesAll Belterra Park picks

Results are in — see the official Belterra Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

Clear skies and a comfortable 82°F greet us at Belterra Park this Saturday, and the racing strip should be playing fast all afternoon. Eight races are on the board today — a nice mix of dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, and some wide-open maiden action that could make for some juicy exotics.

The card leans heavily toward claiming company, which means class angles and recent form carry extra weight in our TrackWiz analysis today. There's also a maiden special weight showdown in Race 8 that's drawn some intriguing morning-line prices — the kind of race where one sharp play can make your whole afternoon.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all eight races. Three races are free to all readers, and the remaining five unlock with a premium subscription. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses share the same barn, setting up a potential Larry E. Smith stable 1-2 — but Maggie lurks as a sneaky price from the same trainer, making this a house race worth watching closely.

win1Thirsty AccountantML 9/5

Thirsty Accountant tops our ratings at 88.83 — a clear step above most of this field — and jockey Yarmarie L. Correa gives this entry a capable pilot in the irons. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the 14-point rating gap over stablemate Caltha is hard to ignore in a six-furlong claiming sprint. Trainer Larry E. Smith saddling the top two horses in the race suggests confidence from the barn, and Thirsty Accountant looks like the one they're sending.

place5CalthaML 5/2

Caltha checks in at a 86.93 TrackWiz rating with a field-best 20% career win rate — that win percentage is the kind of number that keeps a horse honest in the exacta. Also trained by Larry E. Smith, she figures to get every possible setup, and a 5/2 morning line gives you a shade of value if she runs second to her stablemate.

show3MaggieML 6/1

Maggie is the price play in the show slot at 6/1, carrying the highest career win rate in the field at 18% and posting an average speed figure (55) tied for the field-best. She's one of two T.R. Haehn trainees in here, but her numbers actually outpace stablemate Step Lightly by a wide margin — Maggie's 65.06 rating versus Step Lightly's 39.17 tells the whole story. Worth including in your trifecta tickets.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One horse stands well above the rest in a wide-open mile on dirt — but the secondary spots are a genuine puzzle, with several similar profiles bunched between 39 and 44 on our ratings scale.

win5CollatorML 5/2

Collator is the clear class of this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — that's more than 15 points clear of the second-best horse, Iconic Rock. Yarmarie L. Correa takes the mount for trainer Kevin Fletcher, a solid combination at a fair 5/2 morning line price. The one knock is a 9% career win rate, but in a field this thin at the top, the numbers point strongly in Collator's direction.

place1Iconic RockML 7/2

Iconic Rock is a distant second in our ratings (71.35) but still a clear tier above the mid-pack horses. The 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse that profiles as the most logical bridesmaid — even if the 5% career win rate is modest, the rating separation from the pack makes him a safe place investment in exactas.

show3AntoninoML 3/1

Antonino comes in at 43.75 on our scale with a 12% career win rate — the best among the three show-range horses — and holds down the 3/1 morning line, suggesting the public agrees there's something here. Trainer Pablo Andrade puts Santiago Gonzalez up, and while Antonino is closer in class to the mid-pack than to Collator, he's got the profile to finish a clear third in this bunch.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint with two horses — Litibu and Kayleigh's Kitten — separated from the rest of the field by a wide ratings gap, making this look like a match race with a value overlay lurking in the show spot.

win4LitibuML 3/1

Litibu earns the top spot in our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 despite a morning line of 3/1 — and that slight pricing edge over Kayleigh's Kitten makes Litibu our value play at the top. Trainer Israel Acevedo sends Guillermo Rodriguez to the post, a jockey who figures to know the turf course well. In a maiden field where no horse has broken their maiden yet, the average speed figure of 55 — tied for tops in the field — and the highest rating give Litibu the clearest profile.

place1Kayleigh's KittenML 5/2

Kayleigh's Kitten is just a tick behind at 84.06 and is actually the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public is nearly split on who the top two are. Trainer Jeffrey D. Jackson puts Orlando Mojica Jr. up, and this horse also posts an average speed of 55, identical to Litibu. If the pace sets up for a closer, Kayleigh's Kitten has the look of a horse that finishes well on the turf.

show6My Lady ScarlettML 9/2

My Lady Scarlett comes in at a 57.57 rating — a noticeable drop from the top two, but a meaningful step above the rest — and ties for the highest average speed in the field at 55. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's some juice here for exotics. Trainer Ismael Bahena and jockey Summer Pauly give this filly a live outside number in a maiden turf sprint where pace collapses can shake up the order.

Our three free previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they set the tone nicely for the card. Thirsty Accountant (9/5 ML) leads our analysis in the opening 6-furlong dirt sprint and carries the highest TrackWiz rating among the free picks at 88.83. On a fast, clear-weather surface like today's, front-end speed in short sprints tends to hold up, so pace scenario is going to matter early.

Over on the turf in Race 3, Litibu (3/1 ML) draws our attention in the maiden claiming event at 5 furlongs — turf sprints are always a bit of a puzzle, but the rating of 87.08 gives us enough confidence to make a case. Collator bridges the two in Race 2, a 1-mile dirt route where distance and consistency are the story. Three different surfaces, three distinct race shapes — good warm-up material before the premium card kicks in.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An intriguing MSW sprint where the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — Stoptalkingsarah comes in as a 6/1 overlay against two shorter-priced rivals, creating a genuine value opportunity at the top of the card.

win5StoptalkingsarahML 6/1

Stoptalkingsarah checks in as our highest-rated horse in this race at 79.10 — a full 20 points clear of the morning-line chalk — yet she's listed at 6/1, which is a significant disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Fernando Silva puts Rishawn Blanche in the irons, and with a 52 average speed figure, she's competitive on the numbers side too. In a maiden field where nothing has won before, backing the highest-rated horse at more than triple the odds of the favorite is exactly the kind of play TrackWiz analysis is built for.

place6Luna d'OroML 8/5

Luna d'Oro is the 8/5 morning-line favorite trained by Robert C. Cline with Guillermo Rodriguez up — a sharp jockey-trainer pairing who can get horses ready. Her TrackWiz rating of 59.00 puts her just above Elegant Mischief, and she holds the second spot in our order legitimately. No speed figure is available for her, which adds a layer of uncertainty, but the market clearly respects this one.

show2Elegant MischiefML 9/5

Elegant Mischief sits at 58.67 on our scale — nearly identical to Luna d'Oro — and actually posts a stronger average speed figure (54 vs. no data for Luna d'Oro). Trainer Kevin Fletcher teams with Yarmarie L. Correa here, and at 9/5, the morning-line price is tight, but she's a legitimate show contender who could easily flip with the place pick depending on how the race unfolds. Keep her onside in your trifectas.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A nine-horse turf claiming route where three horses are bunched closely at the top of our ratings, but the value structure of this race tilts toward our place pick Palagio at 8/1 — a potential overlay in a race without a clear runaway standout.

win9Shane FalcoML 5/2

Shane Falco is our top selection with an 83.62 TrackWiz rating and a 7% career win rate — the best among the top three horses in this field. Oscar Villarreal takes the mount for trainer Aaron M. West at a fair 5/2 morning line, and the horse's 52 average speed figure is consistent with the turf routing distance at 1 1/16 miles. In a competitive field, the combination of top rating and best win percentage among the contenders makes Shane Falco the most logical win play.

place5PalagioML 8/1

Palagio is the value play of the day at 8/1 on the morning line with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — essentially tied with Big Rog and just four points off Shane Falco. Trainer Karyn Wittek hands the reins to Jane Elliott, and a 4% career win rate in what appears to be a deep field isn't alarming at this distance on turf. If you're looking for a place overlay in this race, Palagio at 8/1 is where the value lives.

show1Big RogML 5/1

Big Rog (79.07 rating) is separated by less than a point from Palagio, making him one of three genuinely competitive horses in a race that figures to be contested throughout. Trainer Barry L. King gives Dylan Machado the call, and with a 5% career win rate and 53 average speed, Big Rog has the consistency profile of a horse who hangs around for a share. At 5/1 morning line, he's a sensible show play and a natural part of your exotic coverage.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses are stacked between 80 and 88 on our ratings scale in a six-furlong dirt claimer, which should produce a genuine pace duel and a tightly contested finish — exacta boxes between the top three could offer real value here.

win4Vanessa's WishML 5/2

Vanessa's Wish leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the same figure, interestingly, as Collator in Race 2, and it's just as dominant here. Trainer Pablo Andrade puts Yarmarie L. Correa up, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is accessible for a horse that sits four points above the next rival. Her 4% career win rate is on the lower side, but in a competitive claimer on dirt, the ratings edge is the number that matters most.

place2Panic ModeML 2/1

Panic Mode is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with an 83.54 rating and a 10% career win rate — that win percentage is actually the second-best in the field and gives this horse a legitimate pace scenario to work from. Trainer Luis R. Dominguez sends Luis A. Hernandez to the post, and with identical average speed figures (54) across four of the six horses in here, Panic Mode figures to be right in the mix at every point of call.

show1Little JuanitaML 3/1

Little Juanita brings the best career win rate in the field at 12% — a meaningful edge in a tight race like this. Trainer Joseph Deegan uses Rafael Mojica Jr., and an 80.83 rating puts her legitimately in contention for a share of the purse even if the top two hold their form. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's the most proven commodity in this race by win percentage and rounds out a strong top three.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of eleven in a turf route, with one horse — Dad's Cara — standing well above a crowded mid-pack where ratings are compressed, and a pair of secondary contenders offering real value at fair-to-generous prices.

win4Dad's CaraML 7/2

Dad's Cara is the standout here with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — nearly 20 points clear of the second-best horse — and a 16% career win rate that ranks among the best in this deep field. Trainer Caio Caramori sends Santiago Gonzalez to post at 7/2, which is a reasonable price for a horse with this kind of ratings separation in an eleven-horse field. The 52 average speed figure is competitive for the 1 1/16-mile turf distance, and this looks like the most clearcut top selection on the afternoon card.

place9DivvyML 5/1

Divvy checks in at 68.00 on our scale with the second-highest career win rate in the field at 20%, which is eye-catching for a horse going off at 5/1. Trainer Luis A. Jurado doubles up in this race (also running Tarragon), and the decision to put Rafael Mojica Jr. — arguably the barn's first call — on Divvy says something about where the stable's confidence lies. With the best average speed in the field at 54, Divvy profiles as a natural place candidate behind Dad's Cara.

show2Denise Says NoML 5/2

Denise Says No rates out at 67.15 — nearly identical to Divvy — with a 9% career win rate and a 5/2 morning line that suggests the public sees her as a legitimate contender. Trainer Ed Moger Jr. and jockey Summer Pauly keep this filly competitive, and in a full field on turf at this distance, having a horse in the 67-range who can sit off the pace and close is exactly the kind of profile that lands in the show spot.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

An MSW sprint on dirt where Hippy Gilmore carries a massive ratings edge over a field of first-time and lightly-raced maidens, though the secondary spots have a genuinely murky separation that makes the exotics more interesting than the straight win bet.

win3Hippy GilmoreML 3/1

Hippy Gilmore tops this field at 87.08 — a commanding 27-point gap over the next-rated horse, Grace Meyers — and does it at a playable 3/1 morning line. Trainer Scott W. Barker gives John McKee the call, and with an average speed of 54, Hippy Gilmore profiles as the most physically ready horse in a maiden field where several rivals carry limited data. This is the kind of clear ratings advantage that doesn't come along every race, and it's worth pressing at a fair price.

place1Grace MeyersML 9/2

Grace Meyers is our place pick at 9/2 with a 59.96 rating — a distant second to Hippy Gilmore, but still a clear tier above the rest. Also trained by Scott W. Barker, this barn has two of the top horses in the race, which is a pattern worth respecting. Sergio Figueroa gets the call, and a 53 average speed figure shows she's competitive enough to run a solid second even if the top pick leads wire to wire.

show8Derby Day IceML 5/2

Derby Day Ice is an interesting show play at 5/2 despite having no available speed figure on record — that uncertainty is baked into the odds, but a 57.50 rating and the Guillermo Rodriguez/Robert C. Cline pairing keep this horse firmly in the conversation. Cline also runs Mister Bad Example, so this barn has multiple looks in the race, and the morning-line price suggests the connections like Derby Day Ice's chances. In maiden fields where past figures are limited, trainer form and jockey quality are the tiebreakers.

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Bottom line: Belterra's got a quality eight-race card today under ideal conditions, with Thirsty Accountant as our marquee free pick and some serious value lurking in the premium races — especially Stoptalkingsarah at 6/1 in Race 4. The full-card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always — bet smart.

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