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Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 20268 racesAll Belterra Park picks

It's a Thursday afternoon at Belterra Park and the racing gods are cooperating — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F mean conditions should be close to ideal all day. Eight races on the dirt and turf give us plenty to chew on, and TrackWiz analysis has been busy breaking down every angle this card has to offer.

The mix of Claiming, Allowance, and Maiden Special Weight races means there's something for every kind of bettor today — from the sharp claimer handicappers who love a class-drop angle to the turf specialists looking to exploit pace mismatches on the grass. Three of today's eight races are free to all TrackWiz readers, and they happen to be some of the more playable spots on the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorites look vulnerable here — Sierra Power owns the top TrackWiz rating in this 5-furlong dirt claimer despite being listed at a generous 8/1, setting up a potential overlay situation to open the card.

win5Sierra PowerML 8/1

Sierra Power is the play here despite the big morning line price. Our analysis gives this horse a 79.79 rating — the highest in the field by a significant margin — which is the kind of disconnect between public perception and underlying form that sharp bettors love to exploit. At 5 furlongs on the dirt, pace scenario will be critical, and Sierra Power's profile suggests enough tactical speed to be dangerous from start to finish. Trainer Michel Douaihy sends this one out with something to prove at 8/1, and if this horse fires anywhere near its ceiling, the morning line looks flat-out wrong.

place1A Cab On the RocksML 5/2

A Cab On the Rocks gets the nod for the place slot, backed by a solid 66.44 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate that's respectable in this claiming company. Jockey Yarmarie L. Correa is one of the most active riders on the Belterra card today, suggesting confidence from connections. At 5/2, the horse is appropriately priced and figures to be competitive enough to hit the board even if Sierra Power runs off with it.

show2PeripoliML 9/5

Peripoli carries the morning line favoritism at 9/5 and a 16% career win rate — the best in this field — which makes the horse a logical show safety net. The 60.57 TrackWiz rating lags behind the top two picks, but Peripoli's consistency makes this one hard to leave completely off the ticket. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm also saddles Lightning Speed in Race 3 today, showing a barn that's active and engaged on this card.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A two-horse battle shapes up at the top of this mile dirt claimer, with Memphis Cash Queen and Sweet Star both carrying elite TrackWiz ratings — the rest of the field is fighting for the show spot.

win3Memphis Cash QueenML 9/5

Memphis Cash Queen gets the top billing here, and the numbers back it up — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating tops this field, and a 17% career win rate is the best of anyone in the gate. Trainer Dino DiZeo sends this horse out with Santiago Gonzalez aboard, a pairing that suggests confidence at a one-mile trip on the dirt. The 9/5 morning line is fair value given the profile, and if this horse gets a clean trip from post 3, it's hard to see many scenarios where it doesn't factor at the wire.

place1Sweet StarML 7/5

Sweet Star is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and brings an 85.18 TrackWiz rating — nearly as strong as the top pick — so this isn't a case of fading the public, just ordering correctly. Yarmarie L. Correa climbs aboard for trainer Ismael Bahena, and with a win rate that suggests steadiness rather than brilliance, Sweet Star looks like a classic place horse: always close, not always first. Slot this one underneath Memphis Cash Queen in exactas.

show6Sonho de VeraoML 8/1

Sonho de Verao is the value inclusion at 8/1 with a 53.32 TrackWiz rating — a big step below the top two, but the horse matches the top pair in average speed figures and carries a legitimate trainer angle with Inocencio Quezada also running Morning Line News in this same race. Victor Lebron gets the call here, and at a mile on the dirt, a front-running or pace-pressing style could keep Sonho de Verao in contention for the show. At those odds, it's a worthwhile exotics add.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Lightning Speed's top-tier rating and morning line favoritism make this allowance mile look straightforward on paper, but Ringthatbell at 6/1 and Smooth Whiskey's elite win percentage give this race a few landmines for chalk bettors.

win3Lightning SpeedML 2/1

Lightning Speed dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance field with an 88.54 — the only horse above 72 in the group. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm, active on today's card, sends Laureano Sosa out at 2/1 morning line, and that trainer-jockey connection adds professional confidence to the profile. A 12% career win rate at allowance level is solid, and matching the field's best average speed figure of 53 suggests this horse has the raw material to back up the numbers. The 2/1 price isn't a steal, but in a field this top-heavy, Lightning Speed is the right horse to key.

place4RingthatbellML 6/1

Ringthatbell is the value angle here at 6/1 with a 72.08 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field but carrying the most underrated morning line of the contenders. An 11% career win rate is workmanlike, and trainer Robert C. Cline runs two horses in this race (also Valiant Strike), which sometimes signals a stable that has mapped out the race dynamics. Santiago Gonzalez takes the mount, and in a mile event where pace can compress late, Ringthatbell looks capable of grabbing a piece at a price.

show2Sweet KylieML 9/2

Sweet Kylie is technically winless on the career record, but the 68.24 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — tells a more interesting story. Trainer Yoni R. Orantes has this horse positioned to break through in allowance company, and Jann N. Hernandez is a reliable pilot for the trip. At 9/2, there's enough juice in the show position to make Sweet Kylie worth including in trifecta coverage, especially if the pace sets up for a closer.

Our three free best bet races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — cover the opening sprint and back-to-back one-mile dirt routes, and there's a clear thread running through all of them: horses with legitimate speed figures getting favorable pace setups. Sierra Power opens the card at a juicy 8/1 morning line in a 5-furlong claiming dash, flashing value that's hard to ignore. Memphis Cash Queen (9/5 ML) steps into Race 2 as a short-priced favorite with a TrackWiz rating north of 88 — the kind of number that suggests the chalk is deserved. Lightning Speed in Race 3 draws the 2/1 line in an Allowance mile, and at an 88.54 rating, there's a case to be made this horse could outrun that number on a fast Belterra dirt strip.

With the track likely playing fast under partly cloudy skies, early speed could be rewarded throughout the afternoon — keep that bias in mind as you structure your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile in Race 4 is headlined by a pair of standout TrackWiz ratings — Always in Vogue and Shakrevenge both grade out well above the field — but an eight-horse turf field means traffic and pace scenarios can scramble the result.

win6Always in VogueML 7/2

Always in Vogue owns the top rating in this turf field at 86.35 and brings a 20% career win rate — the best in the race — which is a rare combination of raw talent and proven results. Trainer Sergio Baez hands the reins to Yarmarie L. Correa, the busiest jockey on today's Belterra card, and that kind of booking signals connections expect a big effort. At 7/2 morning line, there's still some value on a horse that grades out above its price, and on turf at a mile, a horse with pace versatility and a strong win percentage is exactly what you want to key.

place4ShakrevengeML 5/2

Shakrevenge comes in at 5/2 with an 82.9 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — and Luis H. Colon picks up the mount for trainer Joel Campbell. The 7% career win rate is lower than you'd like, but on turf where pace scenarios vary wildly, a horse with strong underlying form often hits the board even when it doesn't win outright. Pair Shakrevenge underneath Always in Vogue in exactas and expect it to be competitive throughout.

show3CachaceiraML 3/1

Cachaceira brings the best career win rate among the non-top-two contenders at 18%, which matters in a crowded eight-horse turf field where class and consistency separate horses at the top of the stretch. Trainer Eduardo Caramori also runs Swigert in this race, making Cachaceira the barn's primary hope given the 72.35 TrackWiz rating advantage. Guillermo Rodriguez has a live mount here at 3/1, and this one slots in naturally as the show piece in trifecta tickets.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Race Day Rebal stands alone at the top of this dirt mile claimer — a horse carrying an 85.62 TrackWiz rating against a field where the next-best is nearly 12 points lower — making this one of the cleaner overlays of the afternoon.

win4Race Day RebalML 4/1

Race Day Rebal at 4/1 is our top play of this race and looks like genuine overlay territory given the 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 12 points clear of Snow King, the next-best horse. Trainer Nancy L. Adams sends out Summer Pauly, and the 13% career win rate paired with the top average speed figure in the field (53) suggests a horse that fires consistently and doesn't need things to go perfectly. In a mile dirt claimer where the pace looks like it could soften based on the overall speed profiles in this group, a horse with Race Day Rebal's form ceiling should be tough to beat.

place6Snow KingML 2/1

Snow King is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a 73.54 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate — a horse that the public clearly respects. Yarmarie L. Correa picks up the mount for trainer Larry E. Smith, and that's a rider who's been active and reliable throughout today's card. Snow King's profile screams 'place horse' in this spot — consistent enough to finish close, but Race Day Rebal's superior rating suggests Snow King may be getting beat by the overlaid pick.

show5Fire WireML 10/1

Fire Wire at 10/1 is the show value inclusion here with a 47.48 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 54 — a number that catches the eye when everything else rates out lower. Trainer Debra C. Ware's 6% career win rate for this horse is thin, but in a trifecta context at double-digit odds, Fire Wire's raw speed potential makes it a legitimate longshot to close into the money. Luis A. Hernandez takes the mount, and if the early pace burns hot, a closer like Fire Wire can pick up the pieces.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf brings a full field of first-time winners and winless horses — with ratings clustered tightly between 45 and 57, this race is genuinely up for grabs and separating the contenders is half the battle.

win4Bonavista BoyzML 3/1

Bonavista Boyz earns the top rating in this maiden turf field at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning line — the lowest price among our top picks, reflecting that the public has landed in the same place as our model. Trainer Jonathan Thomas runs two horses in this race (also Lakeville Love), which is a notable angle in a maiden field where stable intelligence can matter. Jockey John McKee gets the call, and in a race where no horse has won before, the horse that grades out on top of our model has to be the starting point for any ticket.

place8Line AsternML 4/1

Line Astern sits at 4/1 morning line with a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Bonavista Boyz — and Victor Lebron takes the mount for trainer Kelsey Danner. In a field this tight, post position and jockey savvy matter more than usual on the turf, and Lebron is an experienced hand who can get horses into position from post 8 if traffic opens up. At 4/1, there's solid place value here, and Line Astern deserves to be in all exacta and trifecta combinations.

show6Lakeville LoveML 5/1

Lakeville Love comes in at 5/1 with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and the added angle of being trained by Jonathan Thomas — the same barn running Bonavista Boyz. When a trainer runs two horses in a maiden field, both deserve respect, and Jane Elliott picks up the mount in a spot where the stable clearly has options. A 5/1 show inclusion on a horse backed by a strong trainer operation makes Lakeville Love a natural trifecta fill in this tricky wide-open event.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Haley's Dante's 87.81 TrackWiz rating towers over this six-furlong allowance field — but the 5/2 morning line and Two Twenty Two's elite 33% career win rate make the exacta the real play here.

win6Haley's DanteML 5/2

Haley's Dante is the standout of this race, plain and simple — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that's more than 20 points above the next-best horse (Two Twenty Two at 67.03) is the kind of gap that rarely shows up in allowance company. Gabriel Lagunes gets the mount for trainer Edward Fernandez, and a 16% career win rate at the allowance level confirms this horse can convert when it counts. At 5/2, Haley's Dante isn't a true overlay, but the quality separation over the field makes this a confident top selection at six furlongs on the dirt.

place3Two Twenty TwoML 9/5

Two Twenty Two brings a 33% career win rate — by far the best in this field — which tells you this horse knows how to win races. Guillermo Rodriguez picks up the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline, a barn with two runners on today's card, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the public respects the record. The 67.03 TrackWiz rating is solid, and in a six-furlong sprint where pace positioning matters, a horse that wins at this frequency is exactly the kind of place anchor you build exactas around.

show1Kozy KML 3/1

Kozy K at 3/1 brings a 22% career win rate — second best in the race — and trainer Larry E. Smith sends out Yarmarie L. Correa, the most-ridden jockey on the entire Belterra card today. A 62.03 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure suggest Kozy K has the raw speed for six furlongs, and in a race where Haley's Dante and Two Twenty Two could burn each other up on the front end, a horse with Kozy K's win pedigree can steal the show spot. At 3/1, there's mild value in the show and trifecta coverage.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Race 8 is a turf mile claimer with a surprising twist — the two horses our analysis likes best (My Wish at 10/1 and McKinzie River at 12/1) are both double-digit prices, meaning the public money is lining up against our model in a big way.

win8My WishML 10/1

My Wish is a genuine value play at 10/1 despite posting the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 76.88 — that kind of disconnect between the number and the morning line is exactly what TrackWiz is built to find. A 22% career win rate is the second-best in this nine-horse field and matches up with trainer Eduardo Caramori, who also runs horses regularly on this circuit. Orlando Bocachica takes the mount and has familiarity with this track, and at a mile on the turf, My Wish's average speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the field. At 10/1, this is a legitimate win bet, not just an exotics fill.

place5McKinzie RiverML 12/1

McKinzie River at 12/1 is another model vs. public disagreement — a 66.02 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate (best in the race) on a horse that the morning line has priced as a longshot. Trainer William R. Helmbrecht sends out Yarmarie L. Correa, the busiest and most-booked rider on today's card, which is a significant positive angle. A horse that wins a quarter of its starts shouldn't be 12/1 in a nine-horse field, and if this one gets a clean trip on the turf, the payoff in exactas could be substantial.

show2ZelihaML 8/1

Zeliha fits naturally as the show piece at 8/1 with a 58.62 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate — not a horse that figures to steal this race, but one that should be competitive enough to fill out the trifecta. Guillermo Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Carmino Nocero, and a 53 average speed figure is consistent with the top half of this field. In a nine-horse turf mile where pace scenarios can get scrambled, having a steady mid-priced closer like Zeliha in show and trifecta tickets is just smart ticket construction.

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Eight races, solid conditions, and a card loaded with legitimate angles from gate to wire. Sierra Power, Memphis Cash Queen, and Lightning Speed headline the free selections — don't leave the track without them on your tickets. For pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and the full rundown on all eight races including that intriguing 10/1 shot on the turf, the complete analysis is waiting for TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there — race smart.

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