Daily Picks

Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Thursday, July 23, 20268 racesBelterra Park

It's a beautiful Thursday at Belterra Park — clear skies, 73°F, and conditions that should have both the dirt and turf strips playing fast. Eight races are on tap, mixing claiming and allowance company with a pair of turf routes that could deliver some of the best racing on the card.

The dirt looks quick early, which means pace scenario is going to matter in a big way for the sprints. Meanwhile, that firm turf should reward horses with tactical speed and good late kick — keep your eyes on Races 3, 6, and 8 for some of the more interesting multi-race exotic opportunities of the afternoon.

Three races are open to everyone today, with the remaining five reserved for TrackWiz subscribers. Let's break down what we're looking at.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse stands head and shoulders above this claiming opener — the question is whether value can be found underneath in a field that includes a pair of Larry Smith barn entries complicating the pace picture.

win5Lipstick N LashesML 2/1

Lipstick N Lashes is the most dominant number on the board by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 in a field where nobody else cracks 60. Her 40% career win rate is elite for a claiming field — four wins in every ten starts is the kind of consistency you rarely see at this level. Perry Wayne Ouzts gets the call and the 2/1 morning line feels like it could actually offer fair value given how much she separates from the competition on our model.

place4Be KozyML 10/1

Be Kozy is the big price play underneath at 10/1 morning line, and that number looks generous for a horse with a 59.08 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Larry E. Smith also saddles Kozy Night in this race, meaning the barn has two live shots, and Be Kozy's rating edge over stablemate Kozy Night is real. At double-digit odds, she's a must-use in exactas and trifectas behind the top choice.

show6Kozy NightML 5/1

Kozy Night rounds out the Smith barn's double-entry and brings a solid 33% career win rate to the table — that's the second-highest strike rate in the field behind only Lipstick N Lashes. Her 50.68 rating and Guillermo Rodriguez in the irons make her a legitimate threat to hit the board at 5/1, giving trifecta players a nice overlay if she runs to her best.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating top-heavy contest where two horses are statistically almost inseparable at the top, setting up a potential match race while the rest of the field struggles to stay competitive.

win2Molto VivaceML 5/2

Molto Vivace edges out the top rating in this field at 87.81 — just a hair above Centrifugal Force's 87.03 — and that razor-thin margin at the top is exactly why our model lands on the 2 horse. John McKee takes the mount and trainer Jake S. Radosevich puts a 19% career winner on the scene. At 5/2 on the morning line, Molto Vivace represents fair value in a race where the top two horses are clearly in a class of their own.

place1Centrifugal ForceML 9/5

Centrifugal Force is the 9/5 favorite and that price reflects the public's confidence, but our numbers suggest Molto Vivace holds a slight edge. Still, a 87.03 rating at nearly even money means Centrifugal Force absolutely belongs in your exotics — trainer William R. Helmbrecht puts a horse on the track who won't be far off the early pace, and at 6 furlongs on dirt this horse should be right there in the stretch.

show3Ready to PounceML 8/5

Ready to Pounce at 8/5 is one of the public's choices, but her 66.62 rating trails the top two by a significant gap. What keeps her in our show spot is the fact that she's the only other horse in the field with a rating above 60 — the drop-off after the top three is steep, and she should clean up the minor award in a race where the top pair may wear each other down.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Shifting to a mile on the turf, this claiming event features a tight battle at the top between two high-rated horses with a third legitimate contender lurking at a price — the pace shape on grass could scramble the outcome.

win1DiscombobulaatorML 2/1

Discombobulaator tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.16 in this turf mile and gets the rail post with Orlando Bocachica aboard — trainer Eduardo Caramori clearly has this horse in good form. A 15% career win rate on the surface is respectable, and the 2/1 morning line marks this horse as the public's top choice for good reason. At a mile on turf, horses who rate well tend to have the stamina profile to see out the distance, and the model strongly backs this one.

place3Concrete CruiserML 7/2

Concrete Cruiser sits just a whisker below Discombobulaator in our ratings at 86.35 and comes in at 7/2 — that's a solid overlay if the rail draw creates any trouble for the favorite early. Guillermo Rodriguez is a trusted hand around here, and trainer Larry E. Smith is active on today's card. An 11% career win rate is modest, but the raw speed rating says this horse belongs right in the mix at a price.

show7CannonML 5/2

Cannon at 5/2 brings a 79.31 TrackWiz rating and Santiago Gonzalez up top — a solid combination in a turf route. His third-best rating in the field and the fact that he's drawn post 7 (which can be advantageous in a turf mile with a big field) makes him a logical show play and an interesting exotic inclusion. Trainer Robert C. Cline sends him out as the third choice for a reason.

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's a clear thread running through them: pace pressure is going to be relentless on the dirt, and horses that can settle just off a contested early tempo have a major edge. Lipstick N Lashes (Race 1, morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) fits that profile perfectly in the opener, and Molto Vivace (Race 2, 5/2 ML, rating 87.81) sets up similarly in the second. Both sprints over 6 furlongs should play to closers if the speed duels develop the way our pace projections suggest.

Race 3 flips to the turf for a one-mile claiming event, and that's where Discombobulaator (2/1 ML, rating 87.16) comes into focus. Firm turf and a two-turn route tend to produce clean ground-saving trips, and Discombobulaator's profile aligns well with today's conditions. Don't overlook the value angle here — 2/1 on a horse this well-suited to the setup is worth a serious look in your win pool and early Pick 3 tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A step up in class to Allowance Optional Claiming territory and one horse has the numbers to suggest he belongs at a completely different level — but a hidden contender at a price makes the exotics worth targeting.

win6Delta Tau ChiML 7/5

Delta Tau Chi is the standout of the afternoon card with a 88.13 TrackWiz rating and an eye-popping 44% career win rate — nearly half his starts have ended in victory, which is extraordinary at any level. Alberto Burgos takes the mount for trainer Randy L. Klopp, and the 7/5 morning line reflects deserved public confidence. At 6 furlongs on dirt, a horse who wins nearly half his races is not a horse you fade lightly.

place5This TimeML 5/1

This Time puts up a strong 84.17 rating and goes off at 5/1, making him a genuine value play underneath the heavy favorite. Trainer Michael J. Maker is one of the most respected conditioners at this level — a 20% career win rate for his charge is consistent with a horse who runs hard every time. If Delta Tau Chi gets caught in any trouble, This Time has the raw numbers to capitalize.

show1Sergeant GumpML 4/1

Sergeant Gump at 4/1 has the third-best rating in the field at 68.27, and that gap to the top two is meaningful — but at allowance optional claiming level, you want insurance underneath. Trainer Anna Decker puts him out with Jann N. Hernandez, and a 14% career win rate in a field where the top two horses are clearly clear suggests he could scoop the minor award if the pace gets hot up front.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field starter optional claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs where the top-rated horse is being underestimated on the morning line — value is stacked at the top, not at the bottom of this field.

win6CalthaML 5/2

Caltha owns the best TrackWiz number in this field at 87.81 and goes off at just 5/2 — not a massive overlay but a legitimate one when you consider that the 2/1 morning line on Echo Road suggests the public is underrating her. Guillermo Rodriguez rides for trainer Larry E. Smith, who has been active and effective all day on this card. A 21% career win rate is solid for this level, and at 5½ furlongs on dirt, a horse with both speed figure and experience should be controlling the pace.

place2Echo RoadML 2/1

Echo Road is the public's favorite at 2/1 and it's not hard to see why — a 35% career win rate is the highest in this field and trainer Ismael Bahena keeps a consistent horse. Jann N. Hernandez gets the call and her 75.52 TrackWiz rating is the second-best number here. She's our place play because if Caltha goes wire-to-wire, Echo Road's closing style likely picks up the runner-up spot.

show3Mt. d'OroML 3/1

Mt. d'Oro at 3/1 brings a 70.90 rating and a 25% career win rate — that combination makes him a steady play for the show spot in a field of seven. Trainer James Tsirigotis, Jr. sends him out with Rishawn Blanche up, and his average speed of 55 is actually the highest in the field, suggesting there may be more upside here than the morning line implies. He's a natural trifecta anchor.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Wide-open maiden claiming turf mile with a full field of winless runners — in these kinds of races, class indicators and TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting since past-performance patterns are thin.

win9ZivaML 5/2

Ziva stands alone at the top of this maiden field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — a number that dwarfs every other horse in this ten-runner field. Trainer Byron G. Hughes puts her out at 5/2 with Yarmarie L. Correa in the irons, and on turf at a mile, having the top rating by this wide a margin is a powerful edge in a maiden race where form cycles are hard to read. She's our clear top selection and worth singling in win-position wagers.

place1Ojos LocosML 9/2

Ojos Locos at 9/2 is the second-highest rated horse at 56.22 and trainer Cirilo Gorostieta gives Agustin Gomez the mount. Drawing the rail in a turf mile can be tricky — you need to find room — but the ratings gap between this pair and the rest of the field is large enough that Ojos Locos should land underneath if the favorite wins. She's a logical place bet and a key in exactas.

show7TectonicML 7/2

Tectonic at 7/2 is the third-ranked horse on our model at 52.59 and gets Orlando Mojica, Jr. for trainer Justin Wojczynski — that's a strong connections pairing in a wide-open maiden race. Post 7 in a turf mile gives him a clean look to the outside, and his average speed of 53 matches several rivals. At 7/2 he's actually one of the shorter prices in this field, which means he's likely to be bet down further — grab your spots early.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse dirt mile claiming event with a clear top three and a steep drop-off after — the pace scenario will be crucial as the heavy favorite and a well-rated longshot try to navigate from off the pace.

win7Skipper's PrideML 7/2

Skipper's Pride tops our ratings at 86.35 with an 18% career win rate — modest on paper, but our model sees something the morning line is capturing at 7/2. Trainer Jose M. Camejo saddles this horse with Cesar Orantes, and at a mile on dirt, a horse with the top speed figure in the field historically has a strong pace advantage. The 7/2 price makes this one of the better values among our top picks today.

place5Prove WorthyML 8/5

Prove Worthy is the public's choice at 8/5 and brings a solid 79.68 TrackWiz rating with a 21% career win rate. Santiago Gonzalez takes the reins for trainer William E. Morey, and the 8/5 price reflects a horse who is consistently competitive at this level. He profiles as a closer who will be running hard in the stretch — if Skipper's Pride gets tired on the front end, Prove Worthy is perfectly set up to collect.

show6Downtown ConnectorML 6/1

Downtown Connector is a sneaky good show play at 6/1, carrying a 78.26 rating that splits the top two and makes him a legitimate third wheel in this mile. Trainer David W. Asbury gets Rishawn Blanche up, and a 14% career win rate in a nine-horse field tells you this horse hits the board more often than he wins — exactly the profile you want in your show spot. At 6/1, he's underlay-proof in the minor spots.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A ten-horse turf claiming event at 1 1/16 miles to close out the card — three horses are bunched closely in our ratings between 74 and 80, setting up a genuine three-way battle for the top spots with the public's attention elsewhere.

win3Day TripperML 8/1

Day Tripper is our value play of the race at 8/1 on the morning line despite owning the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79. Yarmarie L. Correa gets the mount for trainer Richard Estvanko, and a 11% career win rate on turf is consistent with a horse who runs competitive figures without always converting. At a mile and a sixteenth on grass, the distance suits a horse who sustains his speed, and the 8/1 price is where the real value lives today.

place6Juanita's ExpressML 6/1

Juanita's Express at 6/1 brings a 76.20 rating and the highest career win rate among the contenders at 20% — trainer Joseph Deegan puts Rafael Mojica, Jr. on board in what looks like a strong connections play. She's just a tick below Day Tripper in our model but the 6/1 price means there's money to be made in exactas. A turf closer profile at this price is the angle our analysis leans on.

show1Ready to RollML 4/1

Ready to Roll opens at 4/1 with a 75.87 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to our top two picks — and trainer Thomas L. Van Berg puts Victor Lebron in the irons. The rail post can be a plus or minus at 1 1/16 miles on turf depending on how the race sets up, but this horse's rating gives him every right to be on or near the lead turning for home. He's a natural show anchor and worth keying in trifectas.

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A firm, fast Belterra Park sets the stage for an action-packed Thursday card. Our top free plays — Lipstick N Lashes, Molto Vivace, and Discombobulaator — give casual bettors a strong foundation, but the real edge is in the premium analysis covering Races 4–8, including our longshot angle on Day Tripper and full exotic ticket breakdowns. Visit TrackWiz Premium to get the complete edge before first post.

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