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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026
It's Trial Day at Albuquerque Downs, and the track is serving up a full dozen 400-yard dashes on the dirt — the purest, most electric format in quarter horse racing. Twelve trials, twelve gates slamming open, twelve chances to catch a future finalist before the bigger stage arrives. At 66°F under partly cloudy skies, conditions look close to ideal for fast times today.
All twelve races share the same distance and surface, which actually tells you a lot: on a day like this, it's all about reaction time, draw, and raw speed figures. Small edges matter enormously when the entire race is over in roughly 20 seconds. Our TrackWiz ratings are tight across the card — the gap between the top-rated horse and the field is slim in several races — so finding value at the right price is the name of the game.
Best Bets
Race 1
Trial · 400 yd · Dirt
A wide-open 400-yard trial with a clear top rating separating the field, but several lightly raced horses make this trickier than the morning line suggests.
Toppa the Moon carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and draws the 7/2 morning line, making this a case of top-rated value rather than a chalk play. The 40% career win rate is legitimate proof of concept — this horse has been there before and knows how to finish. Trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza puts Oscar Andrade, Jr. in the irons, a pairing worth watching throughout this trial card. In a sprint format where every fraction counts, a proven winner with separation from the field on our ratings is exactly the profile you want on top.
Bigg Twist slots in at the 5/2 morning line with a 69.69 rating and a 28% career win percentage — modest by headline standards, but that win rate in quarter-horse trials is workable. Luis Martinez rides, and this horse profiles as the type that finds a way into the frame even when not at peak. At the second-shortest odds in the field, the place spot makes sense as a safety net in exotics.
Dahlias Destiny comes in rated 63.02 under Christian Ramos for trainer Tony E. Sedillo, and at 9/2 on the morning line there's real value here if the top two hit any resistance. No career win percentage to lean on, but the TrackWiz rating puts her comfortably ahead of the rest of this field outside the top two picks. She's the show hedge in a tri or the third leg of a quinella wheel.
Race 2
Trial · 400 yd · Dirt
Big Ted looks like a dominant favorite here, but a trio of horses rated in the 80s creates legitimate exacta and trifecta intrigue behind the morning-line chalk.
Big Ted is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — an 86.55 TrackWiz rating pairs with a 66% career win percentage, the kind of number that demands respect in any quarter-horse sprint. Trainer Omar Vargas sends out Sergio Becerra, Jr., one of the more active jockeys on this card, and that experienced connection only adds confidence. At 9/5, you're not getting rich, but in trials format, backing the standout is often the right play. When a horse this rated goes to post at odds-on, the question isn't whether to include him — it's how to structure the tickets around him.
Thats Amoree is sneaky interesting at 6/1 with a rating of 82.71 and a 33% career win rate — those are legitimately competitive numbers that suggest this horse can fire when conditions align. Trainer Wesley T. Giles sends out Noe Garcia, Jr., and the gap between this horse and Big Ted isn't as wide as the morning line implies. If Big Ted stumbles or gets away slowly, Thats Amoree has the rating to capitalize.
Sand and Sea checks in at 80.16 on our ratings for Joseph Belloc, Jr. and trainer Rodolfo G. Valles — a consistent pairing that has runners throughout this card. The 20% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the raw rating keeps this horse in exotics contention. In a race where the top three by rating all cluster in the 80s, Sand and Sea rounds out a logical trifecta underneath.
Race 3
Trial · 400 yd · Dirt
Baby Daddy Cartel enters as a standout on ratings and win percentage, but the double-digit field creates chaos in the gate that could produce a wide-open trifecta result.
Baby Daddy Cartel is the top-rated horse across the first three races of this card with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, and the 66% career win percentage is the kind of résumé that earns favorite status at 9/5. Trainer Omar Vargas pairs with Noe Garcia, Jr. — Vargas has multiple high-profile runners today and clearly knows how to place a horse. In a 400-yard trial, raw ability tends to cut through the chaos at the gate, and this horse has the ability.
Royal Pour Tf rated 67.07 with a 33% career win rate for Joseph Belloc, Jr. and trainer James J. Gonzales II, and the 7/2 morning line reflects a real contender rather than a throw-in. There's a meaningful ratings gap between this horse and the rest of the field outside the top pick, making the place spot a logical landing spot. Belloc has been active throughout this card and knows how to get horses out of the gate cleanly.
Sheza Fast Flash comes in at 59.67 on the TrackWiz scale for Christian Cardenas and trainer Rodolfo G. Valles, and at 8/1 there's genuine value if the top two split or one misses the break. Valles runs a full stable today, suggesting the barn is in good form overall. As the third-rated horse in the field with morning-line overlay potential, Sheza Fast Flash is worth including in trifecta tickets.
We're giving everyone a look at Races 1 through 3 today, and they make for a compelling opening trifecta of action. Baby Daddy Cartel in Race 3 carries the highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 88.83 and is our marquee free pick — a horse whose profile jumps off the page in this trial format. At 9/5 on the morning line, you're not getting rich on a single win ticket, but the confidence level here is high enough to anchor multi-race wagers. Big Ted (Race 2, 86.55 rating) and Toppa the Moon (Race 1, 86.35 rating) round out the early card, and both show the kind of consistent speed figures that hold up well on a fast Albuquerque dirt strip. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races play out — if you see early times trending quick, lean into your speed plays hard the rest of the day.
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Twelve trials, fast dirt, and near-perfect weather — Albuquerque is set up for a sharp afternoon of quarter horse action. Start with Baby Daddy Cartel in Race 3 as your anchor play, use Big Ted and Toppa the Moon to build your early multi-race tickets, and let the TrackWiz full card analysis do the heavy lifting on Races 4 through 12. It's a trial day — the future finalists are out there. Let's find them.