Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

Miss One Smooth Jet rates at 61.23 for trainer Rodolfo G. Valles with Alonso Rivera aboard, and the 7/2 morning line is fair for a clear second-best in the field. The gap between Mansamusa and Miss One Smooth Jet is large, but the gap between Miss One Smooth Jet and the rest of the field is also meaningful — this is a safe place play in a race where the top two look well-separated from the pack.

Md Rolex comes in at 58.94 and offers 8/1 on the morning line for trainer Juan Meraz with Christian Cardenas. That's a show-ticket value play in a big field where the top three rated horses are clustered within three points of each other for spots two through four. Trifecta bettors should anchor Mansamusa on top and spread the second and third legs across Rolex, Miss One Smooth Jet, and Underated.

Beaux Dashes rates at 72.56 with a solid 14% career win rate and goes at 9/2 for trainer Sherry Armstrong with Enrique Portillo Gomez. At the 870-yard distance, horses that know how to close ground matter, and a 14% win rate in what is likely a competitive class bracket suggests this is a horse that shows up consistently. A strong place play to back up the favorite.

Shell Game checks in at 69.63 with a 10% career win rate and posts an average speed figure of 56 — one of the few horses in this race with a documented speed number. Trainer Edgar Moreno and jockey Aldo Arboleda team up at 8/1, giving this horse a value overlay for show tickets and trifecta bottoms. The speed figure combined with the rating puts Shell Game firmly in the show conversation.

Johnnyapplespeed rates at 79.00 and is the morning line chalk at 3/1 for trainer Juvencio Canales, with Gabriel Medrano getting the call. The market likes this one to win outright, and it's hard to argue — a 79 rating is well above average for this field. Playing it as a place horse at 3/1 means you're getting paid even if Hott Tamale edges it at the wire.

Comanche Bravo comes in at a 71.58 rating and 9/2 morning line for trainer Tony E. Sedillo with Luis Martinez. That rating puts this horse clearly third in the field and the price makes it worth including in trifecta tickets. At 350 yards, gate-to-wire results can be unruly in big fields, and having a third rated horse at nearly 5/1 is good trifecta insurance.

First Try Dwm is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and comes in with the best career win percentage in the field at a remarkable 33% — that number stands out in any field. Trainer Donna McArthur puts Luis A. Valenzuela up, and at 79.78 in our ratings, the gap between first and second in this race is real but not decisive. A 33% win horse at 3/1 is a legitimate threat to beat our top pick straight up.

Kj Daddysgottheblues rates at 72.85 and is third-best in the field at 7/2 morning line — on the short side for a show play, but the rating gap over the rest of the field is meaningful. Trainer Cervando Garcia Solis uses Jose Luis Enriquez, one of the busiest and most reliable jockeys on the card. In an allowance race where the top three are tightly separated, this horse figures to be in the thick of it late.

Rosas First Moon is our most interesting play of the race — a 74.60 rating combined with a 16% career win rate, going at 8/1 morning line for trainer Jorge A. Morales-Flores with Raul Ortega. That price on a horse with a solid winning history and a top-three rating in the field is a legitimate overlay. Trifecta and exacta players should be keying this horse in second for value.

High Kicking Eagle rates at 58.91 with a 4% career win rate, which is modest — but at 6/1 for trainer Bernadette Barrios with James A. Flores, this is a serviceable show ticket in a wide-open bottom half of the field. In a 12-horse claiming race at 400 yards, the show spot can be surprisingly lucrative if the favorites fill the top two spots and the third goes to a mid-priced horse like this one.

Nurse Hot Lips rates at 79.60 with a 15% career win rate and goes at 9/2 morning line with Jose Luis Enriquez for trainer Kenneth Durbin. The Enriquez-Durbin combo is worth noting — Enriquez has been active all card and picks his spots well. At nearly 5/1 for a horse with a strong win rate in allowance company, this is terrific place value.

Viva Le Reba comes in at 70.53 with an 11% career win rate and a solid 8/1 morning line for trainer Mike Archuleta with James A. Flores. The rating puts her third in the field and the price makes her an automatic show ticket and trifecta play. Archuleta also trains Race 5 top pick Eb Famous King, suggesting the barn is in good form on this card.

Brown Eyed Daddy rates a strong 74.99 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line for trainer James J. Gonzales II with Christian Cardenas, who has been active and sharp throughout the card. The 10-point gap between Brown Eyed Daddy and King of the Rode is real but not insurmountable in a 350-yard dash where the margins are razor thin. An exacta combining King of the Rode and Brown Eyed Daddy in both directions is a sound closer's play.

Winning Patriot Db rounds out our tickets at a 72.50 rating and 9/2 morning line for trainer Tony E. Sedillo with Alfredo Sigala. The three horses in our top three are genuinely tight — an 11-point span across all three — which is exactly the scenario where show tickets on the second and third picks pay off. Sigala has also had a busy and productive card, and a trainer-jockey combination in good rhythm to close out the day is always worth respecting.