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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 202610 racesAll Albuquerque picks

We're heading to Albuquerque on a pleasant Thursday afternoon — partly cloudy skies and 84°F at post time mean the track should be playing consistent and fair. No weather excuses today, which means the horses that have the figures to win will likely get the job done.

Ten races on the card, all on the main dirt, spanning distances from the lightning-quick 300 yards in Race 10 all the way out to the 870-yard routes that reward stamina and tactical pace. It's a true quarter horse menu, and the variety gives bettors plenty of angles to work with across maiden, claiming, and allowance company.

Our TrackWiz ratings flagged several standouts worth watching, headlined by West Tx Rain in Race 6 and How Eye Roll in Race 2 — both clearing the 87-point threshold that historically signals a sharp edge. We've also got a pair of intriguing longshots that look significantly underpriced at their morning lines.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:05 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 350-yard maiden sprint with 12 first-timers and no prior speed figures to lean on — TrackWiz ratings are the clearest separating tool in this field.

win8Rrun Up the ScoreML 7/2

Rrun Up the Score draws our top TrackWiz rating in the field at 62.63, which is a meaningful edge when every horse is racing for the first time and there are no prior speed figures to compare. Trainer Vilma I. De La Cruz sends this one out with jockey Esgar Ramirez, a solid pilot for short-course sprints. In a race where raw talent signals matter most, that rating gap over the rest of the field is hard to ignore. At 7/2 on the morning line, the price is reasonable for the top-rated entrant.

place7Chasing VenusML 3/1

Chasing Venus is our place pick with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67, second-best in the race, and draws the 7 post for jockey Gabriel Medrano. The morning line of 3/1 suggests the market agrees this is a live contender — in a maiden sprint where any horse can break cleanly and win, a horse with that rating in a prime post position warrants exotics inclusion. Trainer Wesley T. Giles puts a capable pilot up, and if Rrun Up the Score doesn't get a clean start, Chasing Venus could easily steal this.

show1Jess On CanvasML 9/2

Jess On Canvas rounds out our ticket at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale and opens at 9/2 on the morning line — solid value for a show bet in a chaotic 12-horse maiden field. Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez and jockey Luis Martinez give this one a professional connection that matters when you're dealing with green horses. In 350-yard dashes, gate breaks decide everything, and Jess On Canvas has the underlying rating to be competitive if things break right.

Race 2

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

The top three horses on the TrackWiz sheet are separated by only about 10 points, setting up a genuine pace duel across 870 yards in this claiming sprint — don't be surprised if the winner comes from just off the early pressure.

win4How Eye RollML 3/1

How Eye Roll is our top selection with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.08, and the morning line 3/1 makes this the public's pick as well. Trainer Mike Archuleta puts Edgar S. Martinez in the irons, and with an 8% career win rate, this horse has demonstrated a baseline of competency in the gate. The 870-yard distance is a true test of sustained speed, and a rating nearly 10 points clear of the next best suggests How Eye Roll has the class to handle this claiming field. This is as close to a confident play as you'll find in a race like this.

place7Runaway GoddessML 7/2

Runaway Goddess posts a 77.52 TrackWiz rating and is the only horse in the field with a recorded average speed figure of 53 — that real-world data point stands out in a field where most runners have no speed line at all. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and jockey Gabriel Medrano are a recognizable combo at this level. At 7/2, Runaway Goddess looks like a legitimate place threat and potentially sneaks into win contention if the pace gets hot early.

show2Fireball ArML 9/2

Fireball Ar checks in with a 74.80 rating and opens at 9/2, which TrackWiz analysis suggests is fair value for the third-best horse on the sheet. A 9% career win rate from trainer Joel Iturralde's barn means this is a horse that has found the winner's circle before, even if not with regularity. In a three-way race at the top, Fireball Ar is a natural show anchor for multi-race tickets.

Race 3

12:55 AM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

Another first-time-starter 350-yard dash, and the top of the TrackWiz ratings sheet is tightly bunched — a clean gate break could be all that separates our top three picks.

win9Running Cowgirl 123ML 3/1

Running Cowgirl 123 earns the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 56.67 and opens at 3/1, indicating the morning line maker is on the same page. Trainer S. Trey Wood sends out jockey Esgar Ramirez, who is also aboard our Race 1 top pick — a busy, confident rider in these short maiden sprints. In a field of debut runners, the 56.67 rating leads by less than a full point over Rivory Princess, so this isn't a case of a dominant standout — it's a razor-thin edge that makes the pace scenario and gate draw critical.

place6Rivory PrincessML 7/2

Rivory Princess is just a whisker behind at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale and draws a morning line of 7/2 — effectively the co-favorite despite being listed as the place pick. Trainer Jorge A. Morales-Flores and jockey Raul Ortega are a well-known pairing at Albuquerque, which adds a connection angle worth noting. If Running Cowgirl 123 encounters any trouble out of the gates, Rivory Princess is more than capable of taking this field.

show1Hope for DashML 6/1

Hope for Dash rates at 51.67 and opens at 6/1, making it the show pick and a sneaky value angle in exacta/trifecta tickets. Trainer David Meridyth puts Jose Luis Enriquez up, and while the rating gap from the top two is noticeable, 350 yards is short enough that any break advantage can close that gap instantly. Use this one underneath in your exotics if you're trying to build a reasonable return.

The first three races on today's card are fully unlocked for everyone, and they lay out an interesting puzzle. Race 1 is a 350-yard maiden dash where Rrun Up the Score opens at a fair 7/2 — our model rates this one at 62.63, which reflects the volatility you always see in maiden sprints at this distance. Don't bet the house, but the price is workable. Race 2 is where we get more confident: How Eye Roll at 3/1 in a 870-yard claimer checks in with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, one of the highest marks on the entire card. That's a number that commands respect. Race 3 brings another 350-yard maiden with Running Cowgirl 123 — a 3/1 morning line on a horse rated 56.67 tells you this is a wide-open field where anything can happen in the blink of an eye it takes to cover 350 yards.

The through-line connecting these free races: the short sprints reward horses who break cleanly and get to top speed in a hurry. Any gate trouble in Races 1 and 3 reshuffles the deck entirely. Race 2's longer route gives How Eye Roll more room to assert an advantage — which is a big reason our model leans that direction as today's most confident free play.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:20 AM EDT

Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

The two highest-rated horses on the TrackWiz sheet are well off the top of the morning line odds, which creates a genuine overlay situation — this claiming 870-yarder looks like a race that rewards handicappers willing to dig past the chalk.

win3Political MysteryML 10/1

Political Mystery tops the TrackWiz ratings at 76.88 but opens at a generous 10/1 on the morning line — that gap between our rating and the odds is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis loves to find. Trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza puts Oscar Andrade, Jr. aboard, a jockey with multiple mounts on this card who clearly has connections across barns. With a 13% career win rate, this horse has experience converting, and if the pace is honest at 870 yards, a closer-style runner at a big price can swoop late. This is our value play of the race.

place5Flasin CourageML 8/1

Flasin Courage rates nearly as high at 75.35 and posts a 15% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages among the top contenders. Trainer Oscar V. Carrete uses Alejandro Medellin in the irons, and at 8/1, this horse offers real overlay value alongside Political Mystery. If you're building a place parlay or an exacta box, these two make a compelling high-rating, high-odds pairing.

show8Sapello SicarioML 3/1

Sapello Sicario carries a 65.97 TrackWiz rating, a 54 average speed figure, and opens at 3/1 as the morning line favorite — making it the public's choice even though our ratings slot it third. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and jockey Gabriel Medrano are a recognizable combo, and that recorded speed figure gives this one a tangible data point that most of its rivals lack. It's a worthy show anchor, though bettors should be aware the fair price may already be baked in.

Race 5

1:45 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

Papa Two dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 400-yard maiden, but the second and third picks on the sheet are both live threats, making this more of a single-on-top exotics race than a wide-open free-for-all.

win7Papa TwoML 7/2

Papa Two is the clear class of this field by TrackWiz metrics with an 86.35 rating — nearly 10 points ahead of Regarding Jess — and opens at 7/2, which is a fair but not generous price for the dominant figure. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera aboard, a quiet but effective pairing at this level. In a 400-yard maiden dash, the horse with the largest rating advantage often translates that edge directly to raw speed off the break, and Papa Two profiles as exactly that kind of talent. This is our strongest win play of the first half of the card.

place10Regarding JessML 3/1

Regarding Jess is the second-ranked horse on our sheet at 75.98 and opens at 3/1 — actually the morning line co-favorite — under Sergio Becerra, Jr. for trainer Joel J. Gonzales. The fact that the market has Regarding Jess nearly level with Papa Two in the odds suggests some local knowledge may be in play here, which is never something to dismiss. This horse is a logical place bet and a live exacta threat with Papa Two.

show8Someone Elses KissML 8/1

Someone Elses Kiss rates at 60.83, a solid third on the TrackWiz sheet, and opens at 8/1 for trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza with Luis Martinez in the irons. That morning line price relative to the rating makes this a genuine value inclusion in trifectas — the third-best number in the field at nearly double-digit odds is the definition of an overlay. Keep this one alive under the top two on your tickets.

Race 6

2:10 AM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

This allowance sprint over 870 yards features a clear one-two punch at the top of the TrackWiz sheet, with West Tx Rain and Fire Breather separating themselves from the rest of a competitive but thinner field below them.

win4West Tx RainML 5/2

West Tx Rain leads the field with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and opens at 5/2, making it both the top-rated and the morning line favorite — unusual alignment that gives us confidence. Trainer Gene C. Garcia uses Christian Cardenas, a jockey who shows up on multiple cards this meet. A 17% career win rate is solid at the allowance level, and in an 870-yard race, sustained speed is rewarded — West Tx Rain's top rating suggests that's exactly the kind of horse this is. Hard to fade at this level.

place2Fire BreatherML 7/2

Fire Breather is the most fascinating horse on the card — a 57% career win rate is jaw-dropping at any level of racing and demands attention. The 82.60 TrackWiz rating supports the idea that this horse is legitimately fast, and the recorded average speed of 56 gives us a real benchmark. Trainer Timothy Mark Gleason and jockey Aldo Arboleda saddle what looks like a graded-quality runner dropped into an allowance field — at 7/2, this might actually be the best value bet on the entire card.

show1Rock Ya LaterML 9/2

Rock Ya Later opens at 9/2 with a 53.96 rating and a 17% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in the supporting cast. Trainer Tammy Kay Johnson puts Oscar Andrade, Jr. up, who is logging a heavy book of work today. This horse looks like a solid show anchor and a reasonable trifecta inclusion given the competitive field — don't overlook the win percentage as a sign of a horse that knows how to compete.

Race 7

2:35 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

Two horses — Jo Cash Run and Walk It Back — are separated by just over a point on the TrackWiz sheet and open at 6/1 and 7/2 respectively, setting up a compelling duel at the top of a quality 400-yard allowance field.

win3Jo Cash RunML 6/1

Jo Cash Run tops the TrackWiz sheet at 82.71 and opens at 6/1 — a price that looks generous for the top-rated horse in the race. Trainer Tammy Kay Johnson and jockey Oscar Andrade, Jr. combine for what is a confident win play at the allowance level, and a 21% career win rate means this horse knows how to get to the wire first. The morning line odds suggest the public may be underestimating this runner, which is exactly the kind of overlay that pays dividends at the windows.

place6Walk It BackML 7/2

Walk It Back is right on Jo Cash Run's heels at 81.59 and opens as the second favorite at 7/2, with a 23% career win rate that's actually higher than our win pick. Jose Luis Enriquez takes the mount for trainer Jaime Dominguez, and this horse has the credentials to win outright — the ratings are close enough that a trip advantage or a better break could flip the order. A natural key horse in exacta wheels.

show5Kj WildthangML 5/2

Kj Wildthang rates at 68.34 and opens at 5/2 as the morning line favorite — an interesting situation where our ratings slot this horse third but the market makes it the chalk. With an 18% career win rate, there's no question Kj Wildthang is a legitimate contender, and Francisco Zamora is an experienced hand at this distance. Use it as your show anchor and consider a reverse exacta if you think the public is overweighting this one.

Race 8

3:00 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

A deep 12-horse allowance field at 400 yards where our top two picks on the TrackWiz sheet are lurking at mid-range odds, creating overlay opportunities in a race the morning line might be mispricing.

win6Rm Dulce ValienteML 8/1

Rm Dulce Valiente earns the top TrackWiz rating in this 12-horse field at 79.79 and opens at 8/1 — that's a significant overlay for the top-rated horse on the sheet. Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez puts Brian Cobos Barraza up, a jockey who shows positional awareness in short sprints. A 9% career win rate isn't flashy, but the rating advantage over most of this field is substantial. If the morning line is underestimating this horse, the win return could be excellent value.

place1BarbarossaML 9/2

Barbarossa rates at 71.65 and opens at 9/2, with trainer John A. Stinebaugh (who also saddles our Race 5 top pick) using Ali Rivera in the irons. An 11% career win rate at the allowance level is workmanlike, and the 9/2 price is fair for the second-best number on the sheet. This is a natural place bet and a solid underneath option in trifectas — steady, bankable, and not overpriced.

show3Kj Bad to the BoneML 3/1

Kj Bad to the Bone rates at 65.01 and opens at 3/1 as the morning line favorite — our show pick carries the shortest price on the ticket. Trainer Wesley T. Giles uses Noe Garcia, Jr., and with a 12% career win rate, this horse is no stranger to competing. The 3/1 price makes it a thin value as a show bet, but it's a necessary inclusion in trifecta keys given the market's confidence. Just don't expect a big return if this spot finishes third.

Race 9

3:25 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

Our top two picks in this allowance 350-yarder — Mw B Cause Im Sexy and One Signature Trick — are rated nearly eight points apart from the third pick and open at 6/1 and 3/1 respectively, suggesting a two-horse race at the top with big price divergence.

win5Mw B Cause Im SexyML 6/1

Mw B Cause Im Sexy shares the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 and opens at a juicy 6/1 — an overlay of note for a horse with the best number on the sheet. Trainer Wesley T. Giles and jockey Noe Garcia, Jr. are a capable pairing, and a 12% career win rate is respectable at the allowance level over a short sprint. The 350-yard distance is a blink-and-you-miss-it affair, and a horse with the highest rating breaking cleanly from this post is a powerful combination. We're not chasing this — at 6/1, the price finds us.

place2One Signature TrickML 3/1

One Signature Trick rates at 76.95 and opens as the 3/1 morning line favorite, which tells you the local crowd has strong opinions on this one. Trainer Edwin A. Martinez uses Jorge Nieto-Saenz, and a 10% career win rate gives this horse a baseline of experience at the allowance level. The fact that One Signature Trick is the favorite while rating below our win pick creates an interesting dynamic — it could easily win, but the value sits with Mw B Cause Im Sexy at the top.

show9SpenzorML 7/2

Spenzor rates at 74.60 and opens at 7/2 for trainer James J. Gonzales II with Alonso Rivera aboard, carrying a 12% career win rate that matches our win pick. The morning line price of 7/2 is honest but not a screaming overlay — this is a horse that fits neatly as a show pick and a third leg in your trifectas. In a 350-yard race, three strong horses at the top of the ratings can all hit the board if the break is clean.

Race 10

3:50 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A 300-yard maiden claiming closer — the shortest distance on today's card — where Sezagenuineknockout has a commanding TrackWiz advantage and figures to be a clear single on most tickets despite the field size.

win8SezagenuineknockoutML 3/1

Sezagenuineknockout owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — the same elite score as How Eye Roll in Race 2 — and opens at just 3/1 in a maiden claiming race, suggesting the connections are not trying to hide this one. Trainer Juan Muniz, Jr. uses Christian Cardenas, a jockey with a strong book of rides today. At 300 yards — the shortest sprint on today's card — gate speed is absolutely paramount, and a horse with an 87-point rating carries a massive advantage over the rest of this maiden field. Bet accordingly.

place3Luna DamaML 7/2

Luna Dama rates at 58.97 and opens at 7/2 for trainer Salvador R. Soto with Gabriel Medrano aboard — one of the busier and more reliable jockeys on this card. The rating puts this horse clearly in second place on our sheet, and the morning line price reflects modest market respect. In a 300-yard sprint where the top horse could dominate, Luna Dama's best chance is a smooth break and a clear lane to the wire — it's a natural place bet and exacta partner.

show5Rosetas VikeML 9/2

Rosetas Vike rates at 54.17 and opens at 9/2 with trainer Mike Archuleta and jockey Edgar S. Martinez — a solid professional connection for a maiden claiming sprint. The rating is third-best in the field and the morning line price gives fair value as a show anchor in trifectas. When Sezagenuineknockout is this dominant on the sheet, the real money is in finding the correct order underneath, and Rosetas Vike fits that spot comfortably.

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Bottom line: How Eye Roll is today's most straightforward best bet among the free plays, and West Tx Rain headlines a premium card loaded with allowance talent and live longshot angles. It's a well-rounded Thursday card that rewards preparation over guesswork. Subscribers get the full roadmap — pace projections, exotic structures, and every race rated — all in one place. Check out TrackWiz premium and come to the window ready.

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