Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — August 1, 2026

Ebw Kye is the most compelling place play on the card today — a 25% career win rate is the highest of any horse we've highlighted across the first three races, and a 77.96 TrackWiz rating backs that up. Oscar Andrade, Jr. rides for Clinton Crawford at 3/1, and this horse's history of winning suggests it can fire fresh. Don't be surprised if it beats the top pick outright.

Run Bubba Run posts a 71.89 rating and an 11% career win rate, sitting comfortably in the third tier of this field. Gabriel Medrano picks up the mount for trainer Salvador R. Soto at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth taking in exacta and trifecta coverage. Over 870 yards, horses with proven stamina and solid ratings tend to run into the money more often than not.

Davenport Blues rates second in the field at 51.67 and opens at 6/1, which represents mild value for a horse sitting near the top of the TrackWiz rankings. Alfredo Sigala, a jockey with multiple mounts on this card suggesting he's well-placed by the barn connections, rides for trainer Gene C. Garcia. At 6/1, this is a horse worth including underneath in exacta combinations.

A Valliant Cowgirl at 8/1 rates third in the field at 48.33 and comes in for trainer Clinton Crawford — the same barn that has Ebw Kye in Race 3. Jacob Enriquez handles the riding duties, and this filly's rating sits meaningfully above the bottom half of the field. In a 12-horse maiden sprint, getting 8/1 on a horse that grades as a top-three contender has real appeal for show bettors and trifecta players.

L Squared is nearly tied with our win pick in the TrackWiz ratings at 67.78 and posts an average speed of 56 — within a tick of Tizlightning's figure. Tracy J. Hebert rides for Joy I. Marlin at 9/2, and a 17% career win rate keeps this horse honest. If anything disrupts Tizlightning, this horse has the raw ability to pounce.

Times Awasten is fascinating — a 25% career win rate tied for second-best in the field, and a 67.77 rating essentially identical to L Squared's. Sergio Becerra, Jr. is back in the irons for trainer Marco A. Flores at 7/2, and the morning line suggests the public respects this one. Three horses bunched closely in both ratings and win percentage means the trifecta order could flip — but all three should hit the board.

Light My Lips is the most credentialed challenger in the field — a 30% career win rate and a 76.99 TrackWiz rating give her genuine upset potential at 9/2. Edgar S. Martinez picks up the mount for trainer Angeladrian Dominguez, and a horse winning nearly a third of its starts belongs on your ticket. If Traxion has even a slightly sluggish break, this one has the profile to make it a race.

Uncle Eds Idea sits third in the field ratings at 64.84 and posts a 26% career win percentage — the third-highest in this race. Oscar Andrade, Jr. rides for Tammy Kay Johnson at 10/1, and that price looks generous for a horse this accomplished. Include this one in exacta and trifecta wheels as the closer option if the top two battle it out early.

Fly Girl 123 rates just a hair below the win pick at 80.57 and is installed as the 7/2 morning line second choice, which actually makes her slightly overbet relative to Marissa Fly Fly's price. Brian Cobos Barraza rides for Heber Deyta-Melendez, and the 12% career win rate mirrors the top pick's. These two horses are nearly inseparable analytically — using both on top in exactas covers the most likely outcome.

Jet Black Eagles is the morning line favorite at 5/2 with an 80.38 rating — essentially even with both horses above it in this analysis. Alfredo Sigala rides for trainer Richard D. Sedillo, and an 11% career win rate rounds out what is genuinely a three-way dead heat on paper. The 5/2 price means the crowd favors this one, but TrackWiz sees it as a photo with the other two — show coverage is solid here.

Fanncee Pants sits second in the field ratings at 53.89 and opens at 9/2 with Gabriel Medrano up for trainer Wesley T. Giles. In a maiden field this large, the second-best horse analytically often sneaks into the money at a fair price — 9/2 for a horse this far ahead of the bottom half of the field is reasonable. A place bet here offers good risk-reward if Eye Am Secret does run away with it.

Bella Flair rates 53.08 — just shy of Fanncee Pants — and opens at 7/2 with Francisco Zamora aboard for Emilio Cadena, Jr., who has multiple horses running today suggesting an active and confident barn. The 7/2 price actually makes this the shortest price among our non-win picks in the race, which tells you the public sees something here too. In a wide maiden field, a trifecta box with the top three rated horses is a solid exotic play.

Highcardforapoke rates 70.44 and sits in a comfortable second tier at 6/1 on the morning line, with Luis Martinez riding for trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez. An 11% career win percentage is modest but consistent, and the 6/1 price gives bettors real value on a horse our ratings clearly separate from the bottom half of the field. This one figures to be running late and could sweep up the place spot in a compact 350-yard sprint.

Holliday is arguably the most impressive win-percentage horse in the race at 30% — the highest of any horse in our selections for this race — and rates 65.80 with Gabriel Medrano in the irons for trainer Salvador R. Soto. The 9/2 morning line suggests respect from oddsmakers, and a horse that wins 30% of its starts is more dangerous than its show slot implies. Don't be surprised if Holliday runs into the top two.

Casanova Jack grades second in the field at 65.23 and opens as the second choice at 7/2, with Jorge Nieto-Saenz riding for trainer Edwin A. Martinez. The 17-point gap between this horse and Kool Cowgirl 123 is meaningful, but a 7/2 morning line in a maiden field still makes this worth including underneath. If the top pick breaks slowly, Casanova Jack has the ratings profile to capitalize.

Eagle Mountain is installed as the 3/1 morning line favorite despite ranking third in our ratings at 56.78 — that's a slight overlay working against the bettor, but the public clearly sees something in this one. Jacob Enriquez has been active all card for multiple barns, and trainer Ramon A. Alvarez sends this horse out with obvious confidence given its short price. The disconnect between morning line and TrackWiz ranking makes this a show-only horse in our book — strong enough to hit the board, but not enough to lead the field.