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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

July 26, 202610 racesAll Albuquerque picks

It's a hot one at Albuquerque today — clear skies and 90°F at post time, which means that New Mexico sun is baking the strip and the dirt should be playing fast all afternoon. Ten races are on the board, all on the main track, and the entire card is dirt sprints, so pace scenarios are going to be everything today.

The card kicks off with a pair of maiden events before settling into a steady rhythm of claiming and optional claiming races. Things build toward a genuine highlight in Race 9, a Stakes sprint at 5½ furlongs where Speed Merchant draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 88.54. When a horse tops both the ML board and our model in a stakes spot, you take notice.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 10 races today, with the first three races open to everyone. Let's break down what you need to know before the gates open.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where first-out runners dominate the field — TrackWiz ratings reveal a significant gap at the top, but zero career starts means anything can happen over 5½ furlongs.

win1Low RollinML 3/1

Low Rollin enters as the morning line favorite at 3/1 and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 16 points clear of the second-rated horse in this field. Jockey Aldo Arboleda gets the call for trainer Greg Green, a pairing worth watching in a race where green horses can surprise. The average speed figure of 55 is in line with the field's median, but that dominant rating suggests a more complete profile when all factors are considered. In a maiden claimer with no proven winners, this kind of top-line edge is hard to dismiss.

place6Twist 'n SportML 5/2

Twist 'n Sport rates second in the field at 70.62 and draws a favorable morning line of 5/2 despite sitting a tier below Low Rollin in the TrackWiz model. Trainer Joy I. Marlin sends out this first-timer with Tracy J. Hebert aboard — a jockey who knows how to place debut runners in position. At 5/2, the value is thinner, but the rating supports a spot in your exacta.

show7I'm Just PlayingML 9/2

I'm Just Playing rates at 58.21 and comes in at 9/2 on the morning line, offering a little more price for exotic players willing to dig deeper into the ticket. Francisco Amparan takes the mount for trainer Simon J. Buechler, and while the average speed of 53 is the lowest among the top three picks, the overall rating still grades above the bottom half of this field. A useful show bet to round out a trifecta.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight at 6 furlongs is a first-out showcase for several lightly raced prospects — pace will be key, and the horse with the best closing kick could steal the show.

win8Runnin PoliticianML 5/2

Runnin Politician tops the TrackWiz ratings at 64.48 and shows the best average speed in the field at 56, a meaningful edge when you're looking for separation in a maiden field of unknowns. Trainer Simon J. Buechler sends him out with Gabriel Medrano in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line reflects confidence from the morning line maker as well. In MSW company — where the conditions favor horses whose connections believe they have genuine ability — this combination of speed and rating sets him apart.

place6CandyscapeML 3/1

Candyscape draws the 3/1 morning line and rates at 56.67, making her the second-highest rated runner without a published average speed figure — which typically signals a first-career starter whose works have impressed the barn. Trainer Bart G. Hone puts Enrique Portillo Gomez up, and the tighter morning line odds suggest stable confidence. If she breaks cleanly at 6 furlongs, she's a live place threat.

show1Thrilling RideML 7/2

Thrilling Ride is the 7/2 morning line runner from trainer Todd W. Fincher, a conditioner with a strong reputation for preparing debut horses. At a rating of 55.83, she grades in just behind the top two, and Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. is an experienced hand who can nurse a green horse through traffic. She's the logical third piece of any trifecta here.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A deep ten-horse claiming field where the top-rated horse carries a big rating edge — but several horses in the middle of the pack have nearly identical speed figures, setting up a competitive pace scenario.

win1CrossrighthandsML 5/2

Crossrighthands is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the highest in the field by more than 19 points, and a career win rate of 21% that ties for the best among the contenders. Trainer Sherry Armstrong has this horse positioned well off the inside post with Francisco Amparan up — a jockey who knows how to exploit the rail at Albuquerque. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting overlay value, but the rating dominance makes him the most trustworthy single in a tough field. The 6½-furlong distance should give a class-quality horse room to run.

place2Khantaro d'OroML 8/1

Khantaro d'Oro rates at 67.93 — the second-highest figure in the field — and comes in at an attractive 8/1 on the morning line, making him a genuine value play in the exacta. A career win rate of 13% tells a story of a horse that competes but hasn't always closed the deal; with Miguel A. Perez handling the reins for trainer Dick Cappellucci, this could be the spot where it clicks. Don't overlook him underneath.

show5Captain FabulousML 8/1

Captain Fabulous checks in at 63.43 on the TrackWiz scale and matches the top horses in average speed at 55, which means he's capable of running with the leaders if the pace sets up correctly. The 21% career win rate for trainer Raymond G. Valerio's runner is the same as Crossrighthands — this horse just hasn't had the class advantage. At 8/1, he's worth including in trifectas as a live show option.

Our three free races give you a solid early foundation for the day. Low Rollin opens the card in the maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a fair 3/1 morning line — there's potential value there if the tote board is kind. Race 2 brings us Runnin Politician in the Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs; the 64.48 rating reflects a wide-open field where the right pace scenario could flip the result, so watch the early fractions closely. Crossrighthands in Race 3 is the one we like most of the free trio — an 87.81 rating at 5/2 in a 6½-furlong claimer is a compelling spot, and on a hot, fast-playing surface, a horse with back class in a claiming drop often gets the job done.

The common thread across all three free races today: with temps at 90°F and no moisture in the forecast, expect a firm, consistent strip that rewards horses who can get out cleanly and control their own pace. Front-runners and stalkers sitting just off the pace have the advantage over deep closers on a day like this.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two closely matched maiden claimers sit atop the TrackWiz ratings in a race where no horse has ever won — expect a front-loaded pace with the top contenders separated by just a couple of points.

win4Mighty MoneyML 9/2

Mighty Money leads our model at 77.49 despite carrying a 9/2 morning line — meaning the public hasn't caught up to what the numbers are saying, and that's where value hides in maiden races. Trainer Dick Cappellucci sends out this runner with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. aboard, and an average speed figure of 54 is right in the heart of this field's range. As a maiden claimer, class separation matters less than raw readiness, and this horse grades out as the most ready runner in the field.

place1Shenanigans StormML 3/1

Shenanigans Storm rates just below at 75.69 and is actually the morning line favorite at 3/1, making her a narrow underlay in the win spot but a confident place selection. The average speed of 53 is a tick lower than Mighty Money, which is why she drops to the place position in our analysis — but Oscar Ceballos navigating from the rail for trainer Luis C. Rojero is a competent combination. Use her confidently in the exacta.

show3Golden GatoML 5/2

Golden Gato draws the 5/2 morning line — second-lowest odds in the race — but rates third in our model at 57.45, which is a gap worth noting. Still, Alfredo Sigala takes the mount for trainer Larry O. Henry, and an average speed of 54 keeps her in the conversation as a pace-setter who could hang on for a piece. A solid show play to protect your trifecta.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claiming sprint with legitimate talent at the top — three horses rate above 75 in a field where career win percentages tell a story of horses who know how to finish.

win6Jolie CandyML 7/2

Jolie Candy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and flashes the best average speed in the field at 57 — a full point clear of the horses tied at 56. Trainer Jim Bob Arrington sends her out with Alfredo Sigala in the irons, and a 30% career win rate confirms she's no stranger to the winner's circle. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's still some value here given the rating gap over the rest of the field.

place4Lucky VegasML 5/2

Lucky Vegas is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a 79.14 rating and a field-best 44% career win percentage — a horse that wins nearly half its starts is simply a dangerous runner. Trainer Sherry Armstrong puts Enrique Portillo Gomez up, and matching the top speed figure of 56 means she won't get outrun early. If Jolie Candy has any issues breaking cleanly, Lucky Vegas could easily steal this.

show5Maga KaiML 3/1

Maga Kai rates at 75.52 and carries a stellar 41% career win rate — the second-best in the field — making this horse a legitimate threat rather than just a pace factor. Aldo Arboleda rides for trainer Raymond G. Valerio, and the 55 average speed is consistent with a horse that runs its race every time. At 3/1 morning line, Maga Kai is a rock-solid show play and a must-use in any trifecta.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Greg Green's barn shows up with two live horses in this five-furlong claiming race, creating an interesting intra-stable dynamic — but the TrackWiz model points to a clear top two separated by a paper-thin margin.

win7American CherubML 7/2

American Cherub tops our ratings at 86.35 — matching the highest score in the field — and pairs that with a 25% career win rate that ranks among the best in this lineup. Trainer Greg Green and jockey Oscar Andrade, Jr. team up from post 7, and an average speed of 56 is right in the sweet spot for this distance. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is the kind of horse you can confidently single in exotics.

place5Shell GameML 5/2

Shell Game rates a close second at 80.15 with the top average speed in the field at 57 — that number stands out in a five-furlong sprint where early pace can be decisive. Trainer Edgar Moreno and jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez combine from post 5, and a 5/2 morning line makes Shell Game the public's pick to win. Our model likes her a tick below American Cherub, but she's a must-use in the exacta either way.

show6Pop's PartyML 9/2

Pop's Party checks in at 66.65 with a 20% career win rate for trainer Sherry Armstrong — a conditioner who has multiple horses in today's card and clearly has her barn in form. Kelsi Purcell takes the mount, and an average speed of 55 is competitive without being dominant. The 9/2 morning line suggests some public support, and she rounds out the trifecta nicely.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance field where the two top-rated horses are separated by less than five points — this race could come down to post position and who gets the cleaner trip in a six-furlong dirt sprint.

win6Stand Up GuyML 5/2

Stand Up Guy leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5/2 morning line for trainer Todd W. Fincher, who has a knack for placing horses in spots where they can win. Jockey Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. takes the call from post 6, and while the career win rate of 10% is modest, allowance conditions typically attract horses on an upward form cycle. The rating gap over the mid-pack gives Stand Up Guy a meaningful edge.

place8C JackML 7/2

C Jack rates at 83.24 — only 4.5 points behind the top pick — and brings an impressive 33% career win rate that ranks tied for the best in this field alongside M L's Sportscaster. Trainer Joel H. Marr and jockey James A. Flores have a live combination here, and an average speed of 55 is competitive in this allowance company. If Stand Up Guy gets into any trouble, C Jack has the class and the closing ability to be right there.

show3JmarkML 8/1

Jmark rates third at 79.30 and offers some sneaky appeal at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a price mismatch relative to his rating standing. Trainer Daniel Hernandez puts Miguel A. Perez up, and a 56 average speed ties for second-best in the field. In allowance races, horses trained by conditioners with multiple runners in a card often receive extra attention, and Hernandez also saddles Eyecandothisallday today — suggesting his barn is live.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse starter optional claiming field loaded with experienced runners — career win percentages vary wildly across the field, and the pace scenario at 5½ furlongs figures to be hot early.

win10Plane TalkML 6/1

Plane Talk is our top selection with an 82.71 rating and the best average speed in the field at 57 — a combination that screams early pace control at 5½ furlongs. A 26% career win rate confirms this horse knows how to seal the deal, and trainer Tony E. Sedillo sends him out with Oscar Andrade, Jr. from the outside post 10. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine value play where the rating suggests he's better than the odds imply.

place9Ten FiguresML 4/1

Ten Figures rates at 67.44 with a 25% career win rate and draws a 4/1 morning line that makes him a public-leaning selection — Kelsi Purcell gets the mount for trainer Danny Morales, and an average speed of 55 is steady without being flashy. He profiles as a stalker type who can sit off the pace and pounce if Plane Talk gets to the lead and tires late. A solid place play.

show1Drum BunnyML 3/1

Drum Bunny comes in as the morning line favorite at 3/1 but rates third in our model at 62.08 — a slight disconnect worth noting for bettors. The career win rate of 7% is the lowest among our top three picks, but trainer Raymond G. Valerio has him positioned well with Luis Ramon Rodriguez up. Sometimes public favorites run into form unexpectedly, so including him in the show spot of your trifecta is prudent insurance.

Race 9

10:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The stakes race on the card features a short but talented six-horse field — a dominant figure at the top of the morning line meets a horse with an eye-popping career record, setting up the race of the night.

win5Speed MerchantML 2/1

Speed Merchant is the class of this field, posting the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 88.54 and carrying a jaw-dropping 71% career win rate. Trainer Todd W. Fincher saddles this horse for Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. — the same trainer-jockey combination that sends out Stand Up Guy in the allowance — and the 2/1 morning line reflects the market's respect for what this horse has done. An average speed of 55 is appropriate for the 5½-furlong stakes distance, and in stakes company at Albuquerque, consistency is king.

place6Vanishing MoneyML 4/1

Vanishing Money rates second at 74.78 with a 50% career win rate — one of the most compelling win percentages you'll find anywhere on today's card. Trainer Dick Cappellucci pairs this runner with Miguel A. Perez, and the 4/1 morning line actually makes Vanishing Money a slight value underneath given the career record. If Speed Merchant hits any traffic or breaks slowly, this horse has the talent to make it a race.

show3Driving MoneyML 5/2

Driving Money draws the 5/2 morning line and comes in with a remarkable listed 100% career win rate — while that number almost certainly reflects a very small sample, it does mean this horse hasn't been on the track without winning. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has two horses in this stakes — Driving Money and Vanishing Money — which is a barn confidence signal. At 57.5 in the TrackWiz model, the rating gap to the top two is real, but the unbeaten record and price make this worth including in your trifecta.

Race 10

11:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse claiming sprint to close the card — four horses cluster tightly between 81 and 84 in the TrackWiz ratings, making this one of the most competitive races on the program.

win9Attila StyleML 5/1

Attila Style edges to the top of our model at 83.70 and draws a fair 5/1 morning line from trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, who also saddles Girls Don't Cry in this same race. Oscar Andrade, Jr. takes the mount and brings proven big-field experience to a twelve-horse field. An average speed of 54 is consistent but not dominant — the rating edge here is about overall form quality, and Attila Style grades out as the most complete package in a wide-open closer.

place10Wild SteelML 6/1

Wild Steel rates at 81.43 and shows the second-best average speed in the field at 55 for trainer Sherry Armstrong — a conditioner who is well represented throughout today's card and clearly has a hot barn. Alejandro Medellin picks up the mount, and the 6/1 morning line on a horse this highly rated is the kind of price discrepancy that value bettors circle. A win wouldn't be shocking at all.

show5JawdropperML 4/1

Jawdropper rates at 81.35 — essentially a dead heat with Wild Steel in our model — and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line with Rodolfo Guerra up for trainer Casey T. Lambert. A 10% career win rate is modest, but the rating says this horse is performing at a level that outpaces his strike rate. In a twelve-horse field where pace will be chaotic, having three horses rated within 2.5 points of each other in your trifecta is exactly the kind of coverage you need.

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Bottom line for today at Albuquerque: it's a fast-track sprint card under blazing sun, and our best bets are Crossrighthands (Race 3) among the free plays and Speed Merchant (Race 9) as the marquee premium selection. Ten races, plenty of angles, and the full breakdown is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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