Daily Picks

Woodbine Picks & Predictions — July 18, 2026

Saturday, July 18, 202610 racesWoodbine

It's a wet one at Woodbine on July 18th. Rain is falling at post time with temperatures sitting around 80°F, and that means the dirt is playing differently than it does on a dry afternoon — expect a potentially sealed, fast-on-top strip that can favor early speed, or a legitimate sloppy track that turns the pace scenario on its head. Either way, surface management is going to be the story of the day.

We've got a full 10-race card on the grounds, mixing maiden fields, claimers, and allowance company across both the dirt and turf. Speaking of turf — keep an eye on those Races 6, 8, and 10 scheduled for the grass. Race officials will be monitoring conditions closely, and any turf-to-dirt switches could scramble morning-line odds in a hurry. That's the kind of chaos that creates overlays for sharp bettors, and TrackWiz will flag any changes the moment they drop.

Three races are open to every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — giving you a solid early-card foundation to build your bankroll before the premium action heats up in the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claiming sprint that shapes up as a two-horse race at the top, with the morning line favorite likely to face a stiff challenge from the TrackWiz top-rated runner.

win3Up N the AnteML 3/1

Up N the Ante earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a clear edge over everyone else in the gate. Trainer Devon Gittens sends this one out with Skye Chernetz in the irons at a very digestible 3/1 morning line, which represents fair value given the rating gap. With an average speed figure of 54, Up N the Ante has shown enough ability in the mornings to suggest a sharp debut, and the 6-furlong dirt trip looks tailor-made for a quick-turning sprinter.

place2Well LitML 6/1

Well Lit is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 74.11 and carries an average speed figure of 53 — modest, but consistent. At 6/1 on the morning line, Christoff Douglas gets a live price on a horse that Krista Cole appears to have ready to fire, making Well Lit a sneaky place-ticket inclusion.

show1Silent SecretML 8/5

Silent Secret is the public's choice at 8/5 despite a zero rating advantage over the rest — Josie Carroll's stable sends out a lot of first-time winners, and Ryan Munger is a capable pilot. The short price limits upside but makes this horse a reasonable show hedge in a tight maiden field where experience and connections matter.

Race 2

5:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Alley Oop Johnny looks like a standout class edge in this claiming route, but the pace scenario over 1 1/16 miles on dirt could bring closers into play if the tempo gets hot early.

win3Alley Oop JohnnyML 6/5

Alley Oop Johnny tops the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin at 89.71 in a field where nothing else cracks 70. Jim Ensom's runner carries an 18% career win rate — solid for a claimer — and Sahin Civaci gets the call at just 6/5 morning line. The average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the field, but the rating separation here is substantial enough to make this horse a confident top selection over a route.

place2Jim's HopeML 3/1

Jim's Hope checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 66.36 and has won 13% of career starts — workmanlike but respectable at the claiming level. Fraser Aebly rides, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's enough pace-engagement potential over 1 1/16 miles to keep this one in the mix for second money.

show1Buttonwood TreeML 4/1

Buttonwood Tree brings a 20% career win rate — tied for the best in the field — and shows a rating of 57.8 with a 53 average speed. Jodeien Anderson has been active at Woodbine and Edgar Mendoza is a proven hand with this type of horse. At 4/1, Buttonwood Tree is a logical show play to round out exacta and trifecta combinations.

Race 3

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Beautiful Things looks like the class of this maiden special weight field, but Fleury at 6/1 is the most intriguing price in the race and could make this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win5Beautiful ThingsML 2/1

Beautiful Things posts a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in the field by a healthy margin — and comes in at 2/1 on the morning line for Kevin Attard, one of Woodbine's most reliable trainers. Romero Ramsay Maragh gets the call, a jockey who knows how to rate horses over 6.5 furlongs. The 54 average speed figure is right there with the field, and the overall profile screams first-out win threat.

place6FleuryML 6/1

Fleury is the value angle here at 6/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 75.57 is second-best in the field and clearly separates her from the middle tier. Josie Carroll is a sharp trainer in maiden company at Woodbine, and Fraser Aebly is an underrated pilot who gets horses into good positions early. If Beautiful Things gets into a pace duel, Fleury could be sitting in the right spot to pounce.

show2Bullet JournalML 4/1

Bullet Journal rates third in the field at 63.9 and is trained by Catherine Day Phillips, who has a strong Woodbine record with maiden runners. An average speed of 54 is right at the field average, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's enough value here to include in show and trifecta tickets as a stalking type that can pick up the pieces.

The free portion of today's card kicks off with a trio of races that, frankly, we love as a standalone sequence. Up N the Ante (Race 1, 3/1 morning line) opens the day in a Maiden Optional Claiming sprint on the dirt — a surface that, with the rain in play, could set up perfectly for a pace-pressing style. From there, Alley Oop Johnny takes center stage in Race 2 as a heavy 6/5 favorite going 1 1/16 miles in the claiming ranks. Our TrackWiz rating of 89.71 makes him the highest-rated free pick on the card, and that number demands respect. Closing out the free slate, Beautiful Things lines up in a Maiden Special Weight at 6½ furlongs — the 2/1 morning line suggests the connections expect a big effort, and our numbers back that confidence up.

The thread tying these three together? All running on dirt, all in conditions that reward horses with tactical speed and the ability to handle a potentially tricky, weather-affected strip. If early speed is holding up in the first couple of races, lean into it hard when Beautiful Things breaks from the gate in Race 3.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:38 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Toast the Ghost and Let's Go Souper dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden optional claiming field, setting up a potential one-two punch — but neither is a lock in a full eight-horse gate.

win3Toast the GhostML 3/1

Toast the Ghost earns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — highest in the race — and goes postward at a fair 3/1 under Rafael Manuel Hernandez for trainer Gail Cox, who is no stranger to winning with this type of runner at Woodbine. The 54 average speed figure is in line with the top competitors, and over 6.5 furlongs on dirt, a horse with this kind of rating edge in a maiden field is worth trusting. Cox also saddles Let's Go Souper, giving her barn a two-pronged attack.

place6Let's Go SouperML 7/2

Let's Go Souper is trained by the same Gail Cox barn and earns a 72.47 TrackWiz rating — second in the field. Romero Ramsay Maragh rides, and when Cox doubles up in a maiden race, both horses tend to be live. At 7/2, Let's Go Souper is a comfortable place selection, especially if the two Cox horses set up for each other on the front end.

show1Lemon SweetsML 5/2

Lemon Sweets checks in with a 71.15 TrackWiz rating — third best in this field — and is piloted by Keveh Nicholls for trainer Brandon Evan Greer. The 5/2 morning line makes Lemon Sweets the public's pick, which suggests support from connections. The 54 average speed figure is competitive, and in a wide-open maiden field, show tickets on this one are sensible.

Race 5

7:11 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where no horse separates itself dramatically on ratings — the pace scenario and jockey decisions may matter as much as raw ability here.

win2Liberty BeachML 5/2

Liberty Beach earns the top TrackWiz rating in this nine-horse field at 57.5 and goes with Romero Ramsay Maragh for the powerful Mark Casse barn — a combination that routinely fires in maiden company at Woodbine. The 55 average speed figure is among the better marks in the field, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public is clearly on board. Casse routinely debuts horses sharp, and this one fits the mold.

place6TobermoryML 3/1

Tobermory rates a close 56.67 — just a tick below Liberty Beach — and posts a 55 average speed figure, matching the top horses in the field. Barbara Minshall is a patient trainer who tends to have her horses ready when they appear, and Fraser Aebly is a reliable rider who can place a horse well in a sprint. At 3/1, this is a comfortable place ticket in a race where the top four horses are tightly bunched on ratings.

show5Bitter BulletML 7/2

Bitter Bullet sits at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale — the third-highest rating in the race — and carries an identical 55 average speed figure to the top two picks. Eswan Flores rides for Sid Attard, another trainer who knows this circuit cold. At 7/2, Bitter Bullet is a reasonable show hedge and a logical trifecta piece in a field where the top three are nearly inseparable by the numbers.

Race 6

7:44 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A sneaky deep field on the Woodbine turf, where the morning line favorite is outrated by at least two horses — making this a prime race to look past the chalk and find value at a price.

win7WagnerML 8/1

Wagner is our TrackWiz top selection at 79.79 — the highest rating in the field — despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line, making this a legitimate value play. Romero Ramsay Maragh climbs aboard for Sylvain Pion, and the 55 average speed figure on turf is among the best in the race. A 15% career win rate tells you Wagner hits the board regularly, and the modest odds on the favorite create real overlay potential here.

place1Real SavvyML 7/2

Real Savvy is just a whisker behind Wagner at 79.67 on the TrackWiz scale and is the only horse in this field with a 54 average speed backed by a legitimate turf profile. Eswan Flores rides for Michael Wright Jr. at 7/2, and a 13% career win rate over a longer sample is respectable at the allowance optional claiming level. If Wagner runs his race, Real Savvy is the most likely horse to be right there with him.

show8DewolfML 3/1

Dewolf rates 62.25 — third-best in the field — and brings a 20% career win rate to the table, which is genuinely solid. Kevin Attard is among the top trainers at Woodbine and puts Christoff Douglas in the saddle. At 3/1, Dewolf is a short show price but a logical piece of the exotics in a race where the top three horses are fairly evenly matched against the rest of the field.

Race 7

8:17 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Arya's Quest sits on top of the TrackWiz ratings as a double-digit morning line price, presenting what could be the best value play of the day — while the 9/5 favorite Wozniacki is no slouch either.

win1Arya's QuestML 6/1

Arya's Quest earns a field-topping TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and ships out at 6/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay given the numbers. A 22% career win rate is excellent for the optional claiming ranks, and trainer Michael De Paulo knows this horse well, putting Jason Hoyte in the irons for a 6-furlong dirt sprint that suits the profile. The combination of top rating, strong career win percentage, and a generous price makes Arya's Quest the best value bet on the card in this race.

place5WozniackiML 9/5

Wozniacki rates a strong 79.12 — second in the field — and carries a 22% career win rate identical to the top pick, which tells you this horse belongs. Pietro Moran rides for Tino Attard, a combination that fires regularly at Woodbine. At 9/5, the favorite is fairly priced given its consistent record, and place money on Wozniacki is a safe foundation for exotic wagering.

show3Sil's GambleML 5/2

Sil's Gamble rates 64.8 — third in the field — and goes with Fraser Aebly for the Josie Carroll barn at 5/2. The 54 average speed figure is right at the field average, and a 10% career win rate in a full book of starts suggests Sil's Gamble hits the board often enough to be a legitimate show ticket. Carroll and Aebly is a reliable combination, especially in optional claiming company.

Race 8

8:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Justine tops the TrackWiz ratings on a short turf sprint that could favor horses with pace flexibility, while Thank You India lurks as the most interesting price in the exotics.

win7JustineML 7/2

Justine earns an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — top of the field — and carries a 14% career win rate paired with an impressive 56 average speed figure, one of the best numbers in this race. Pietro Moran rides for Dale Desruisseaux at 7/2, and on a 5-furlong turf course, gate position and early quickness matter enormously — Justine's speed figure edge could be decisive. This is a horse that earns its spot as the win selection on merit, not just by default.

place3Thank You IndiaML 3/1

Thank You India rates 80.55 — second in the field — and brings a 20% career win rate for Kevin Attard, who is one of the most accomplished turf trainers at Woodbine. Rafael Manuel Hernandez takes the mount at 3/1, and a 55 average speed figure on the turf is competitive with the top choices. If Justine gets into trouble or doesn't fire, Thank You India is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show1Orion BeachML 12/1

Orion Beach is the TrackWiz longshot value pick for show at 12/1 morning line, but carries a solid 72.51 rating — third in the field — which is a significant outlier given the big price. Catherine Day Phillips trains, and Jose Luis Campos rides this one who posts a 14% career win rate and a 54 average speed. The odds don't match the rating here, making Orion Beach an interesting show ticket and trifecta anchor at a generous price.

Race 9

9:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Golden Sunset goes as a 6/1 overlay despite earning the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field, setting up a potential upset over the 2/1 morning line favorite Flying Schulzy.

win6Golden SunsetML 6/1

Golden Sunset earns an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — tied for top of the field — but goes off at 6/1 on the morning line, making this the clearest overlay in the race. Austin Adams rides for Ravendra Raghunath, and a 54 average speed figure over 6.5 furlongs on dirt is right in the strike zone. When TrackWiz finds a horse rated this high at this kind of price, it's worth treating as a legitimate win contender regardless of what the morning line implies.

place1HeadspinML 7/2

Headspin rates 77.95 — second-best in the field — and posts the top average speed figure in the race at 56, a meaningful edge on a 6.5-furlong dirt strip. Pietro Moran takes the mount for Kevin Attard at 7/2 morning line, and Attard has a knack for placing maiden horses in spots they can win. The combination of top speed figure and elite trainer makes Headspin a strong place contender.

show3Flying SchulzyML 2/1

Flying Schulzy is the 2/1 morning line favorite and rates 58.33, sitting solidly in the middle of the field on TrackWiz. Emma-Jayne Wilson — a consistent Woodbine jockey — gets the call for Rachel Halden, and a 55 average speed figure on dirt is respectable. The public clearly likes this one, and while we prefer Golden Sunset and Headspin above it, Flying Schulzy is a logical show ticket and the likely key in horizontal wagers.

Race 10

9:56 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden optional claiming turf route with three horses bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — Tap My Desire, Lapin de Plage, and Melody Maker — setting up a fascinating trifecta puzzle to close out the card.

win3Tap My DesireML 3/1

Tap My Desire tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.76 — the highest mark in this ten-horse field — and goes at 3/1 morning line with Keveh Nicholls aboard for Philip Hall. A 53 average speed figure on turf is consistent with the surface demands of a 7.5-furlong maiden route, and the rating edge over the rest of the field is meaningful. Hall is a patient conditioner who tends to have his turf horses primed for their best effort, making this a confident top selection.

place2Lapin de PlageML 4/1

Lapin de Plage rates 85.62 — just a hair behind the top pick — and gets Romero Ramsay Maragh in the irons for Catherine Day Phillips, one of the sharper barns at Woodbine when it comes to turf routing. A 52 average speed figure is modest, but the overall rating suggests this horse has more ability than the raw figure shows. At 4/1 on the morning line, Lapin de Plage is a natural place selection and a legitimate win threat if the trip sets up.

show10Melody MakerML 6/1

Melody Maker earns an 81.4 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the race — and goes with the in-form Emma-Jayne Wilson for the Mark Casse stable, which is always dangerous on turf. The 51 average speed figure is on the lower end, but Casse routinely exceeds what the workout and speed numbers project, especially in debut-style turf spots. At 6/1, Melody Maker is a fair show price and a strong trifecta anchor to close out a competitive card.

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Rain or shine, this is a card worth attacking from the jump. Alley Oop Johnny is our top-rated horse on the free card, Up N the Ante opens the day with strong dirt credentials, and Beautiful Things rounds out a compelling early trifecta of free best bets. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all seven premium races including potential longshot Wagner at 8/1 — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Not a member yet? Head to /pricing and get on board before the first race goes off. Good luck out there today.

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