Penn National Picks & Predictions — May 28, 2026
Happy Thursday from Penn National, where a gorgeous late-May afternoon is doing us all a favor. Clear skies and a comfortable 68°F means ideal conditions across the board — the turf course should be running true, and the main track figures to be consistent all day. Seven races on the card, and there's plenty to dig into from the jump.
What stands out about today's card is how turf-heavy the early going is. Three of the first four races are contested on the grass, including a pair of Starter Optional Claiming events that should attract some familiar faces moving around the condition book. Then the card shifts to a stretch of three straight dirt sprints to close things out — if you like a fast pace and a tight finish, Races 4 through 7 are going to be a lot of fun.
TrackWiz has analysis on all seven races. Races 1, 2, and 3 are free for every reader — no subscription required. Races 4 through 7 are part of the premium full-card breakdown, available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf with a clear top rating but a muddled mid-pack and a first-time starter sneaking into the mix at 2/1.
Royal Renegade earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field by a wide margin — an 88.83 against a group where nobody else cracks 59 — and trainer Elizabeth M. Merryman puts her here at a 9/5 morning line that suggests real confidence. Jockey Angel R. Rodriguez gets the call, a positive sign in a maiden field where piloting decisions matter. The mile on turf is a distance that rewards horses with stamina, and Royal Renegade's average speed figure of 53 is competitive with the best in the field. Fade the zero career win percentage — in a maiden race, everyone's looking for that first win.
Fly Now is the mystery horse here — no average speed figure available, which in a maiden field can mean a first-time starter with unknown ceiling. Trainer Keri Brion sends her out at 2/1 on the morning line, signaling genuine optimism, and that kind of confidence from a sharp barn is worth respect. She draws the 8 post on the turf, which sets up well for a closer in a race where several horses project to battle on the front end. Treat her as a solid place contender while the TrackWiz model sorts out the value.
Butter Man at 20/1 is your value inclusion for the exotics. He posts a 53.29 TrackWiz rating — surprisingly solid for a horse the morning line dismisses — and trainer Alan Bedard saddles two in this race, which sometimes signals a barn fishing for a spot. At those odds, tossing him into a trifecta or superfecta costs next to nothing while keeping you alive if the top choices flop.
Race 2
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A full-field starter optional claimer on the grass that pits a pair of high-rated horses against each other while a sneaky 20/1 with a 33% career win rate lurks in the middle of the pack.
Billy White Shoes tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries the Brandon L. Kulp trainer tag — Kulp also saddles Brockton in this race, a dual-entry move that underlines stable confidence in this spot. Angel R. Rodriguez picks up the mount, and with a 14% career win rate, this horse has shown he knows how to get to the wire. The 7/2 morning line sits slightly generous given the rating edge, making this a best-bet profile on the mile turf.
Miami Kaz rates second in the field at 78.95 with a 16% career win rate, and the Paulina Sinnefia barn sends her out at 4/1. She posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 53, tied with a few others but with a rating that separates her from the crowd. Julio A. Hernandez is aboard, and if Billy White Shoes gets into a pace duel near the front, Miami Kaz has the profile to swoop late and grab a piece.
Brockton is the second Kulp runner and brings a 20% career win rate — the best in this race — along with a 72.22 TrackWiz rating that puts him firmly in the mix. At 6/1, there's some value here, especially with the stable clearly pointed at this spot. He's a strong show contender and worth including in your trifecta key.
Race 3
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A contentious 12-horse starter optional claimer on the turf where pace figures to be honest and the top of the TrackWiz ratings is tightly bunched between four credible contenders.
Persisten earns the TrackWiz top rating at 76.31 and goes postward at a fair 3/1 morning line. The Paco Lopez booking is a big deal — Lopez is a proven commodity on turf, and Michael V. Simone's barn does well when pointing horses to the grass at this distance. The average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the field, and a 10% career win rate in competitive spots suggests he knows how to compete. This is a well-constructed pick at a number that offers mild value.
Solar Glare at 10/1 is the value play of the race. She carries a 69.9 TrackWiz rating — third in the field — and matches Persisten with a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia also saddles Miami Kaz earlier in the card, hinting at a productive meet for this barn. At double-digit morning line odds, Solar Glare is tailor-made for trifecta and exacta use if you're looking to inflate your payouts.
Clarely Tom sits at 8/1 with a staggering 50% career win rate — by far the highest in this field — and posts the top average speed figure at 55. Trainer Flint W. Stites and Wilfredo Corujo combine on the inside post, which can be tricky in a grass mile but rewards horses that break cleanly. The rating of 69.59 is nearly identical to Solar Glare's, making him a legitimate show contender and an intriguing piece if the pace sets up honest.
The first three races today are all run on the turf at a mile, and our free analysis covers all of them. Royal Renegade opens the card as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 in a Maiden Claiming event, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 88.83 — a number that suggests real separation from the field. Race 2 brings Billy White Shoes into the picture at 7/2, a price that looks workable if the pace scenario sets up the way we project. And in Race 3, Persisten draws our top nod at 3/1 in another Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf.
With all three free races on the same surface and distance, track bias is worth keeping in mind. On a clear, dry day like today, the Penn turf course tends to reward horses that can settle off the pace and kick late over a mile. That pace dynamic threads through all three of our free top picks — it's not a coincidence. Keep that framing in your back pocket as you're watching the early races unfold.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's Penn National card has a clean, logical structure: three turf miles to start, four dirt sprints to close. Royal Renegade, Billy White Shoes, and Persisten are the top free plays on the grass, while Jace Is No Joke headlines what looks like a sharp dirt sprint sequence to end the day. It's a solid Thursday card, and the weather's not giving anyone an excuse. Good luck out there — and if you want the full picture on Races 4 through 7, subscribers can find the complete breakdown waiting for them now.