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Parx Racing Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

July 16, 20268 racesAll Parx Racing picks

This card ran on July 16, 2026.

Best bets at Parx Racing, July 16, 2026

Race 16AwolML 2/15:00 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Parx Racing: our top pick won 26 of 81 races (32%) and finished in the money in 52.

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It's a scorcher at Parx on Thursday, July 16 — partly cloudy skies and 93°F on the thermometer. That kind of heat can sap horses late in a race, so stamina questions deserve extra weight today, particularly in the two routes stretching beyond a mile.

Eight races are on the card, all on the dirt, ranging from a quick 5½-furlong dash to a pair of 1-mile-70-yard routes. The conditions mix is heavy on Claiming and Starter Optional Claiming events, which means class angles and barn intentions matter as much as raw speed figures.

Our TrackWiz models have combed through every entrant, and the headliner of the day is Kerness K in Race 7 — the highest-rated pick on the card at 88.83 — posting as the 9/5 morning-line favorite in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint. Keep that one circled.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming mile with a clear TrackWiz rating gap at the top — but the morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are not the same animal, which sets up a compelling early trifecta.

win6AwolML 2/1

Awol carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54, a meaningful separation from the rest of the pack in what is otherwise a fairly even claiming affair. The 2/1 morning line suggests the market respects this profile too, though a 4% career win rate means connections may be fishing for a breakthrough spot. Trainer Wayne Ruiz puts Eliseo Ruiz in the irons and the pace scenario over 1 1/16 miles on the Parx dirt should suit a horse with this kind of overall score. At odds-on neighbor pricing, Awol is the play, but shop for any overlay.

place4Centaur CentralML 5/1

Centaur Central is a fascinating piece at 5/1 on the morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 74.09 that makes him the second-best-rated horse in the field. The 3% career win rate is admittedly thin, but in a race where our top pick is also win-starved statistically, getting Centaur Central underneath at those odds in exactas looks like sound value. Trainer Jose G. Gonzalez-Milian has this horse pointed at the right spot.

show1Like TysonML 9/5

Like Tyson opens as the 9/5 morning line favorite and posts a 71.36 TrackWiz rating alongside a field-best 22% career win rate — that winning pedigree matters in a claiming race full of horses who rarely hit the board first. The risk is that our analysis places him third-best by overall rating, suggesting the market may be overrating his recent form relative to Awol and Centaur Central. He's a solid show anchor in the trifecta, and his consistency gives him a ceiling as a win longshot if the top two underperform.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Miss Interpatation brings a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate into a starter optional claiming mile, but TrackWiz ratings say Center Stage and Umbral have the better recent profiles — expect a competitive pace scenario with real trifecta depth.

win1Center StageML 5/2

Center Stage tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.08 and goes postward at a workable 5/2 morning line under jockey Frankie Pennington for trainer John T. Kirby. A 17% career win rate is solid for this level, and the slightly longer distance of 1 mile and 70 yards on the Parx dirt sets up well for a horse with this kind of measured rating. The pace scenario in a seven-horse field could allow Center Stage to stalk and pounce in the stretch.

place4UmbralML 5/1

Umbral rates just a tick below Center Stage at 84.17 and brings a 22% career win rate that speaks to a horse who knows how to finish the job. At 5/1 on the morning line, trainer Scott A. Lake's runner represents genuine place value in the exacta — Lake is one of the more active conditioners at this level and knows how to spot a horse in a winnable spot. If Center Stage gets caught up in any pace trouble, Umbral is right there to capitalize.

show5Miss InterpatationML 7/2

Miss Interpatation's 42% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin and simply cannot be ignored, even with a TrackWiz rating of 75.97 that slots her third in our power rankings. Trainer Michael V. Simone's filly also averages 53 on speed figures — tied for the field lead alongside Goldieness. At 7/2, she's not a throwaway, and her raw winning instincts make her an essential show ticket and a dangerous contender if the pace sets up favorably.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Three races are open to everyone today. Awol kicks things off in Race 1 — a 1 1/16-mile Claiming affair — carrying our top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 at a very fair 2/1 morning line. That kind of figure at that kind of price is a solid foundation for your card. In Race 2, Center Stage gets the nod in a route that stretches to 1 mile and 70 yards; on a hot day like this, our analysis likes horses with proven late-race efficiency, and Center Stage fits that profile. Race 3 brings the action back to a tighter 6-furlong sprint, where Diamond Heist (3/1) earns an 87.08 rating — a number that tends to be competitive at this level on Parx's main track.

The common thread across all three free picks: each rates well above the field average in their respective races, and none is a short-priced chalk you'd feel squeamish about. Build your early Pick 3 around these three and you're starting the day on firm footing.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Diamond Heist's 87-plus TrackWiz rating creates a genuine class standout in this six-furlong starter optional claiming sprint, though morning line favorite Nancy Made My Day will press the pace and keep things honest.

win2Diamond HeistML 3/1

Diamond Heist rates as the clear top choice with an 87.08 TrackWiz score and a 23% career win rate that backs up the number with real results. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse of this profile, and at six furlongs on the Parx dirt, an average speed figure of 55 ties for the field lead. Trainer Miguel A. Rodriguez puts Anthony Salgado up, and the combination of strong ratings, a solid win percentage, and elite speed for this field makes Diamond Heist a confident top selection.

place4Nancy Made My DayML 9/5

Nancy Made My Day opens as the 9/5 morning line favorite, reflecting strong public support, and a 26% career win rate is genuinely impressive for this level. Her TrackWiz rating of 78.65 slots her solidly in second, and with Dexter Haddock aboard, she'll likely be on or near the lead through the early fractions. If Diamond Heist gets a step slow out of the gate or runs into trouble, Nancy Made My Day has the profile to steal this thing.

show3My Man WoodyML 6/1

My Man Woody is worth a look in the show spot at 6/1 — a 63.96 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 (tied for the field best) suggests he has the raw speed to be competitive. Trainer Carlos E. Caban's runner carries a 14% career win rate, and with Victor Carrero in the saddle, My Man Woody profiles as a presser who could grab a share in a contentious pace scenario. The price makes him a live piece in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

6:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full nine-horse claiming sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs where our top-rated horse is sitting at 5/1 despite the best TrackWiz number, while the morning line favorite is ranked third — that kind of disconnect often means value is sitting right in front of you.

win1Johnny Come LatelyML 5/1

Johnny Come Lately tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 yet opens at a generous 5/1, making this one of the more appealing win bets on the card. A 16% career win rate is respectable for a claiming horse at this distance, and the 55 average speed figure is the joint-best in the field alongside Bootleg Runner. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends out Luis M. Ocasio, and the five and a half furlong trip over Parx dirt should play right into the strengths of a horse with this kind of pure speed profile. Don't let the 5/1 scare you — the number says this is the horse.

place9We Miss NeilML 8/1

We Miss Neil is a compelling place and exotic play at 8/1 despite a 79.23 TrackWiz rating that makes him the second-best horse in the field by our analysis. The 3% career win rate is extremely low for a horse rated this well, which could mean a breakthrough is overdue or that there's a form quirk to account for. Dexter Haddock takes the mount for trainer Trevor Gallimore, and if We Miss Neil brings his A-game in a sprint scenario, that 8/1 morning line is a gift in the place column.

show2Bootleg RunnerML 2/1

Bootleg Runner opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite, and while our analysis slots him third, a 22% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure keep him fully in the mix. The public loves him at this price, and there's no shame in using the morning line choice underneath — if he can't win, he's almost certainly finishing in the money. Trainer Michael V. Pino and jockey Bryan L. Torres form a live combination, and at the short price he's best deployed as a show safety in three-part exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

6:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Donnelly's Hollow has a clear edge in TrackWiz ratings, but nine horses over a mile and 70 yards creates enough pace complexity that the second and third picks at 8/1 and 4/1 have genuine upset potential — this is a race built for exotic plays.

win5Donnelly's HollowML 7/2

Donnelly's Hollow leads all comers with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and opens at a reasonable 7/2, which is fair value for the top-rated horse in a nine-horse field. Andrew Wolfsont takes the reins for trainer Ronald B. Abrams, and while a 11% career win rate is modest, the overall rating is dominant enough to override that concern in a wide-open claiming race. At a route distance of one mile and 70 yards, horses with strong overall profiles tend to carry that edge further than they do in sprints — Donnelly's Hollow is the play.

place2Riley's RockstarML 8/1

Riley's Rockstar is a sneaky-good place play at 8/1 for trainer Scott A. Lake, who knows how to find soft spots on the Parx circuit. The 73.07 TrackWiz rating makes this horse the second-best in the field by our numbers, and a 15% career win rate suggests he's not just a runner who fills out the field. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. is up for Lake — a rider-trainer combo that should be respected — and at 8/1 in the place pool, the value here is hard to pass up.

show7What It TizML 4/1

What It Tiz at 4/1 rates just a hair below Riley's Rockstar with a 72.69 TrackWiz score and a matching 15% career win rate, making him nearly interchangeable with our place pick on paper. Trainer Alexander Martinez and jockey Noel Herman give this horse a live chance to hit the board, and the slightly shorter odds compared to Riley's Rockstar suggest the market sees the same thing we do. He's a natural show play and a useful third leg in any trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sofster's 87.08 TrackWiz rating makes him the clear top choice in this nine-horse claiming six-furlong sprint, but a crowded field with multiple 50-70 rated horses means the trifecta underneath could yield a nice price.

win7SofsterML 3/1

Sofster is the standout in this race with the top TrackWiz score of 87.08 and a 54 average speed figure — the best in the field by a tick. The 3/1 morning line is fair for the class of this race, and trainer Silvino Ramirez has him set for a six-furlong sprint that aligns with his speed profile. With Noel Herman in the irons and a 14% career win rate to lean on, Sofster is the confident top choice and the horse to beat at Parx on Thursday night.

place4My First LoveML 7/2

My First Love rates second in the field at 79.72 with a 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure, putting her squarely in the mix in this competitive claiming sprint. Trainer Ronald J. Dandy sends Silvestre Gonzalez out on the 7/2 morning line second choice, and in a race where the favorite is the clear class, My First Love has the profile to follow him home. She's a natural exacta partner with Sofster.

show3Take Time to DreamML 10/1

Take Time to Dream at 10/1 is a genuine value play in the show spot — a 72.97 TrackWiz rating makes this horse the third-best in the field, yet the morning line is double digits. Trainer Carlos E. Caban puts Magglio Sanchez up, and the 18% career win rate suggests this is a horse that finishes in the money more often than 10/1 implies. In a wide-open nine-horse field, getting a 73-rated horse at 10/1 to show is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to find.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

7:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Kerness K is a legitimate standout here — a 55% career win rate in a starter optional claiming six-furlong sprint is the kind of number that demands attention, and the 9/5 morning line reflects it.

win2Kerness KML 9/5

Kerness K tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and backs it up with a remarkable 55% career win rate — the best in the field by a country mile and one of the more impressive win percentages you'll see at any level. At 9/5 on the morning line, trainer Jamie Ness has this horse in a spot where the numbers overwhelmingly favor him, and an average speed figure of 55 matches the field leader. Martin Chuan gets the call, and in a seven-horse sprint, Kerness K is as close to a single as you'll find on this card.

place7Ortho StarML 9/2

Ortho Star slots second in our ratings at 74.40 and brings a 22% career win rate to a race where he'll likely be chasing the heavy favorite home. Kendry Rivera rides for trainer Eli Betancourt, and at 9/2 on the morning line, Ortho Star represents fair place value in the exacta underneath Kerness K. He's got the speed figures to stay competitive in the upper third of this field.

show1DowntownchalybrownML 7/2

Downtownchalybrown rounds out our trifecta at 72.10 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a solid 22% career win rate to match — identical to Ortho Star's, which makes separating these two interesting. Trainer Scott A. Lake teams with Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. at 7/2, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the field lead. If the pace collapses on the front-runners, Downtownchalybrown has the closing profile to be right there for a piece of it.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

7:34 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where every horse in the field is still looking for that first career win — in races like this, speed figures and TrackWiz ratings carry extra weight since past results don't tell the whole story.

win3She's BankableML 4/1

She's Bankable leads all ten starters with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and opens at 4/1, which is fair pricing for the top-rated horse in a wide-open maiden field. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi puts Magglio Sanchez up, and with a 52 average speed figure and a well-rounded overall rating, She's Bankable has the profile to break her maiden right here. In maiden races, the highest-rated horse by our model hits at a strong clip — make her the key in all your exotics.

place4Frosty for EverML 5/1

Frosty for Ever is worth significant attention at 5/1 — an average speed figure of 53 is the best in the entire field, and the 71.89 TrackWiz score makes her the second-best horse by our analysis. Trainer Jacinto Solis saddles Melvis Gonzalez, and the combination of the top raw speed number and a strong overall rating in a maiden field is the kind of profile that tends to hit the board even when the win doesn't come. She's a mandatory use underneath She's Bankable.

show9Regal RulesML 2/1

Regal Rules opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite, making her the betting public's top choice despite a TrackWiz rating of 60.78 that slots her third in our model. Trainer Michael V. Pino and Bryan L. Torres are a sharp combination, and in maiden races, trainer-jockey chemistry can compensate for a modest rating gap. She's the horse the market trusts most, and at 2/1, she belongs in the show slot as a hedge — just don't let the public confidence push you off our top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Today's Parx card is tight, competitive, and loaded with dirt-track action under a blazing July sun. Our three free best bets — Awol, Center Stage, and Diamond Heist — give every reader a strong starting point. For pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and the full Race 4–8 analysis including Kerness K, the day's standout, full-card coverage is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our subscription options and get every angle before the first race goes to post.

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