Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026
Happy Sunday from the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park is rolling out an 8-race card today under comfortable, partly cloudy skies and a pleasant 70°F — about as good as it gets for late May racing. The turf course figures to be in great shape, which matters because four of today's eight races are run on the grass.
The mix of claiming races, maiden events, and an allowance optional claiming in Race 6 gives bettors plenty of angles to work with. Whether you're looking to cash a win bet or build a multi-race sequence, there's something here worth digging into. Let's set the table.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A turf sprint with a clear top-rated standout, but the morning line favorite gets undercut by a deep, competitive mid-tier cluster — pace and post position could scramble the order here.
Lucky Twist tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a meaningful edge over the rest of this field in a 5½-furlong turf claiming opener. Sonny Leon in the irons is a plus — he knows this course well and gives horses a confident, patient early trip on the grass. The 4/1 morning line actually looks generous given the rating gap, and with a 12% career win rate that's in line with the field average, there's no red flag in the form cycle.
Johnny Come Lately brings the best career win percentage in the field at 33%, a legitimately eye-catching number that suggests a consistent winner when conditions align. Wesley Ward conditioning a horse at this level always carries weight — his operation rarely spots horses in spots they can't handle. The 2/1 morning line makes him the crowd's choice, but place value is still solid if Lucky Twist gets the better of him at the wire.
Its Pizza Time at 6/1 is worth including in your exotics as a show anchor. The 74.30 TrackWiz rating puts this horse solidly in the second tier of this field, and on turf sprints, pace collapse scenarios can lift a stalker like this into the frame. Luis Ocasio has the horse in good hands for trainer Silvino Ramirez.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Maiden claimers on the dirt are often a guessing game, but one horse's TrackWiz rating stands well above the rest — the question is whether the field can keep it honest.
Royal Merit posts a dominant 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest number in this seven-horse maiden claiming field by a wide margin. Paco Lopez, one of the sharpest jockeys in this circuit, is the call for trainer Michael Dini, a barn that knows how to place maiden horses to win. The 2/1 morning line reflects the crowd's respect, but this figure edge is real and worth backing at that number.
They Call Me Sue checks in with a 74.72 rating — second-best in the field and a notable 14-point gap above third-best. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Tony Wilson, and the 5/1 morning line offers some value if Royal Merit falters or gets into pace trouble. In a field where most runners haven't broken their maiden, this kind of rating separation makes Sue a confident place play.
Cuddy's Lucky draws post 7 with Sonny Leon up for Kathleen O'Connell, a capable Monmouth barn. The 57.50 rating is middle-of-the-pack but holds up fine for show purposes in this maiden group, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market has genuine respect here. Including this one in your trifecta bottom is reasonable at that price.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
A maiden special weight turf sprint where the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse — that kind of separation between public money and our numbers is exactly where value hides.
Souper Document tops the TrackWiz ratings at 65.00 and goes off at a patient 7/2 morning line, giving you real value on the top-rated horse in the race. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila fields a horse with a competitive avg speed figure of 54 on turf, and Cipriano Gil has the mount on a surface where front-runners and pace pressers can carve out clean trips in short sprints. The gap between Souper Document's rating and the chalk is the story here — trust the numbers.
Draft Riots is the morning line favorite at 8/5, backed by Paco Lopez and trainer Miguel Clement — a combination the Monmouth crowd respects. The 60.90 rating is second-best in the field, and while TrackWiz's top-rated horse gets the win nod, Draft Riots has the talent and connections to be right there at the finish. A good place play to anchor your exacta.
Whaleaxe in the one-hole draws the rail post in a turf sprint — a spot that can be tricky, but Sonny Leon is adept at navigating early traffic from the inside. The 54.17 rating is third-best among the seven runners, and trainer Sarah Nagle has this horse ready to compete at the MSW level. At 9/2, including Whaleaxe in your trifecta shows some genuine show-pool value.
Three races are open to every TrackWiz reader today, and they span both surfaces — giving us a nice early read on how the track is playing. On the turf, Lucky Twist (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) and Souper Document (Race 3, 7/2) both draw our attention in short-field sprint conditions where pace scenarios tend to be cleaner and easier to project. Between them, Royal Merit (Race 2, 2/1) takes on a maiden claiming dirt sprint at 6 furlongs — the morning line makes her the clear public choice, and our ratings back that up with an 88.54 score, the highest of the three free plays.
One thing to watch early: with multiple turf sprints on the card, any bias toward front-runners or closers on the grass should reveal itself by Race 3. Pay attention to how the first turf race sets up — it's useful intel for the premium races later in the card.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's card at Monmouth is a well-rounded Sunday slate with real opportunities on both surfaces. Start with Lucky Twist, Royal Merit, and Souper Document as your free best bets, then lean on the premium analysis — especially around One Fine Wine and Gowokegobroke — to build your full-card tickets. Good luck out there, and enjoy the weather. It's a good day to be at the track.