Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026
Sunday at Hawthorne and the weather is cooperating — cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F keeping things mild out at the old brick track on South Laramie. The dirt should be playing consistent, and with three turf races slotted in the back half of the card, there's plenty of surface variety to keep things interesting all afternoon.
Seven races are on the board today, stretching from a 5½-furlong dirt sprint right out of the gate all the way to a mile turf closer to cap the card. The mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden action gives every kind of bettor something to dig into — whether you're looking for a sharp single or trying to build a multi-race ticket.
TrackWiz has you covered on the full card. The first three races are free for everyone, and our premium subscribers get the deep dive on Races 4 through 7 — including the turf trio that figures to be the most competitive, and highest-value, stretch of the day.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A short-field claiming sprint where one horse stands out on the TrackWiz ratings, but a pair of lightly-raced runners with competitive speed figures could make this tighter than the morning line suggests.
Blazing Affair is the clear top selection here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — more than 10 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Luis H. Colon gets the call in the irons, and at 6/5 on the morning line the market agrees with our assessment. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the average speed figure of 55 is the best in this five-horse field. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, that early foot should be enough to control the pace scenario.
Spirit to Inspire is the logical place contender at 4/1, backed by a solid TrackWiz rating of 78.82 — second-best in the field. Trainer Brian Cook sends out two horses in this race, which signals confidence in the barn, and Alexander Bendezu is a capable pilot. The 12% career win rate in a claiming field is workable, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps her in striking range of the top pick.
Night Rose offers a bit of an overlay angle here at 3/1 despite being our show pick. The 50% career win rate stands out as the highest in the field by a wide margin — granted, that may reflect a limited sample size, but it's hard to ignore. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a consistent presence at Hawthorne, and Jareth Loveberry in the saddle gives this one a quality jockey-trainer combo worth including in your exactas and trifectas.
Race 2
Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
An allowance route over a mile on dirt that looks like a two-horse show at the top, but a pair of mid-packers with serviceable speed figures could complicate the exacta.
Prince Day is the clear top choice with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, and the connections are strong — trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry are a reliable combination at this meet. The 50% career win rate is legitimately impressive for an allowance-level horse and not just a small-sample illusion. The 8/5 morning line is deserved, and stretching out to a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse that our models rate this highly.
Coach Jimi D is an intriguing place contender at 3/1, and here's the angle: his average speed figure of 56 is actually the best in the field, outpacing even the morning line favorite. That raw speed number suggests he can be competitive on paper, and trainer James P. DiVito has him at a manageable price. The 7% career win rate is low, but in exotics at 3/1, he's worth slotting in behind Prince Day.
Dynamis rounds out the TrackWiz top three at a TrackWiz rating of 56.04 and 9/2 on the morning line, giving him a bit of overlay value for show bettors. He shares the same trainer (John Haran) with longshot Giant Moon, which means the barn has a clear pecking order — Dynamis is the one they're running to hit the board. Luis H. Colon aboard is a confidence signal, and the 12% career win rate is respectable in this field.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A six-horse claiming route at 1 1/16 miles where the TrackWiz model is off the morning line, flagging Rumbling as the standout despite a mid-range morning-line price — value hunters, take note.
Rumbling tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and is our win pick at 9/2, which represents real overlay value given how strong that rating is relative to the field. Trainer Maximino Quinonez puts Alexander Bendezu in the irons, a capable pairing, and the 15% career win rate is the best in the field. The average speed figure of 53 is also tops here, and at a route distance, a horse with that combination of class and stamina should be tough to beat.
Vino Couragio comes in at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 66.35 and draws the rail in post position 1 — always an interesting spot at a route distance. Trainer Joel Campbell has Jareth Loveberry up, a pairing that inspires confidence. The 8% career win rate is modest, but this horse has been running against similar or tougher, and the inside draw at 1 1/16 miles can be an asset for a horse that settles into a rhythm.
Westeros is the 5/2 morning line second choice and our show pick, with a TrackWiz rating of 64.81 that's virtually identical to Vino Couragio's — this race is very competitive in the middle tier. Olaf Hernandez picks up the mount and the 10% career win rate keeps this one honest. At a price that will likely shorten toward even money, Westeros is best used underneath in trifectas rather than as a straight win play.
Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's a clear thread running through them: pace scenario is everything on this dirt surface today. In Race 1, Blazing Affair (morning line 6/5, TrackWiz rating 89.71) looks like the class of a 5½-furlong sprint and projects to get a clean trip from the front. In Race 2, Prince Day (8/5, 89.12) stretches out to a mile and 70 yards in an allowance spot — the added ground should suit a horse whose late energy numbers have been quietly building. And in Race 3, Rumbling (9/2, 84.90) stands out as the top-rated horse at a generous morning-line price in a claiming mile — the kind of value angle TrackWiz analysis tends to flag early.
All three free picks are on dirt, and if the track is playing true to speed today — which the conditions suggest it should — look for horses that can secure clean position early without burning too much fuel. That pace dynamic favors each of our free top picks in their respective spots.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Bottom line: Hawthorne's Sunday card is a solid one, with legitimate value scattered across all seven races. Blazing Affair, Prince Day, and Rumbling headline the free picks, while the turf trio in the back half offers the most intrigue — and the most opportunity — for subscribers with the full TrackWiz breakdown in hand. Bet smart, stay patient, and good luck out there today.