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Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026

May 31, 20267 racesAll Hawthorne picks

This card ran on May 31, 2026.

Best bets at Hawthorne, May 31, 2026

Race 14Blazing AffairML 6/53:44 PM EDT

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Sunday at Hawthorne and the weather is cooperating — cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F keeping things mild out at the old brick track on South Laramie. The dirt should be playing consistent, and with three turf races slotted in the back half of the card, there's plenty of surface variety to keep things interesting all afternoon.

Seven races are on the board today, stretching from a 5½-furlong dirt sprint right out of the gate all the way to a mile turf closer to cap the card. The mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden action gives every kind of bettor something to dig into — whether you're looking for a sharp single or trying to build a multi-race ticket.

TrackWiz has you covered on the full card. The first three races are free for everyone, and our premium subscribers get the deep dive on Races 4 through 7 — including the turf trio that figures to be the most competitive, and highest-value, stretch of the day.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field claiming sprint where one horse stands out on the TrackWiz ratings, but a pair of lightly-raced runners with competitive speed figures could make this tighter than the morning line suggests.

win4Blazing AffairML 6/5

Blazing Affair is the clear top selection here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — more than 10 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Luis H. Colon gets the call in the irons, and at 6/5 on the morning line the market agrees with our assessment. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the average speed figure of 55 is the best in this five-horse field. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, that early foot should be enough to control the pace scenario.

place3Spirit to InspireML 4/1

Spirit to Inspire is the logical place contender at 4/1, backed by a solid TrackWiz rating of 78.82 — second-best in the field. Trainer Brian Cook sends out two horses in this race, which signals confidence in the barn, and Alexander Bendezu is a capable pilot. The 12% career win rate in a claiming field is workable, and the average speed figure of 54 keeps her in striking range of the top pick.

show1Night RoseML 3/1

Night Rose offers a bit of an overlay angle here at 3/1 despite being our show pick. The 50% career win rate stands out as the highest in the field by a wide margin — granted, that may reflect a limited sample size, but it's hard to ignore. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a consistent presence at Hawthorne, and Jareth Loveberry in the saddle gives this one a quality jockey-trainer combo worth including in your exactas and trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:16 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An allowance route over a mile on dirt that looks like a two-horse show at the top, but a pair of mid-packers with serviceable speed figures could complicate the exacta.

win4Prince DayML 8/5

Prince Day is the clear top choice with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, and the connections are strong — trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry are a reliable combination at this meet. The 50% career win rate is legitimately impressive for an allowance-level horse and not just a small-sample illusion. The 8/5 morning line is deserved, and stretching out to a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse that our models rate this highly.

place3Coach Jimi DML 3/1

Coach Jimi D is an intriguing place contender at 3/1, and here's the angle: his average speed figure of 56 is actually the best in the field, outpacing even the morning line favorite. That raw speed number suggests he can be competitive on paper, and trainer James P. DiVito has him at a manageable price. The 7% career win rate is low, but in exotics at 3/1, he's worth slotting in behind Prince Day.

show2DynamisML 9/2

Dynamis rounds out the TrackWiz top three at a TrackWiz rating of 56.04 and 9/2 on the morning line, giving him a bit of overlay value for show bettors. He shares the same trainer (John Haran) with longshot Giant Moon, which means the barn has a clear pecking order — Dynamis is the one they're running to hit the board. Luis H. Colon aboard is a confidence signal, and the 12% career win rate is respectable in this field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's a clear thread running through them: pace scenario is everything on this dirt surface today. In Race 1, Blazing Affair (morning line 6/5, TrackWiz rating 89.71) looks like the class of a 5½-furlong sprint and projects to get a clean trip from the front. In Race 2, Prince Day (8/5, 89.12) stretches out to a mile and 70 yards in an allowance spot — the added ground should suit a horse whose late energy numbers have been quietly building. And in Race 3, Rumbling (9/2, 84.90) stands out as the top-rated horse at a generous morning-line price in a claiming mile — the kind of value angle TrackWiz analysis tends to flag early.

All three free picks are on dirt, and if the track is playing true to speed today — which the conditions suggest it should — look for horses that can secure clean position early without burning too much fuel. That pace dynamic favors each of our free top picks in their respective spots.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A six-horse claiming route at 1 1/16 miles where the TrackWiz model is off the morning line, flagging Rumbling as the standout despite a mid-range morning-line price — value hunters, take note.

win4RumblingML 9/2

Rumbling tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and is our win pick at 9/2, which represents real overlay value given how strong that rating is relative to the field. Trainer Maximino Quinonez puts Alexander Bendezu in the irons, a capable pairing, and the 15% career win rate is the best in the field. The average speed figure of 53 is also tops here, and at a route distance, a horse with that combination of class and stamina should be tough to beat.

place1Vino CouragioML 7/2

Vino Couragio comes in at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 66.35 and draws the rail in post position 1 — always an interesting spot at a route distance. Trainer Joel Campbell has Jareth Loveberry up, a pairing that inspires confidence. The 8% career win rate is modest, but this horse has been running against similar or tougher, and the inside draw at 1 1/16 miles can be an asset for a horse that settles into a rhythm.

show5WesterosML 5/2

Westeros is the 5/2 morning line second choice and our show pick, with a TrackWiz rating of 64.81 that's virtually identical to Vino Couragio's — this race is very competitive in the middle tier. Olaf Hernandez picks up the mount and the 10% career win rate keeps this one honest. At a price that will likely shorten toward even money, Westeros is best used underneath in trifectas rather than as a straight win play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

5:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where nobody in the field has ever won — and one horse is carrying a significantly better TrackWiz number than the morning line favorite, creating a potential upset scenario right out of the gate.

win6Sig Forty FiveML 5/2

Sig Forty Five is the TrackWiz top pick at 87.81, posting the highest rating in this maiden field by a significant margin despite being second on the morning line at 5/2. Trainer Raul De La Mora sends him out with Frank Reyes aboard, and the average speed figure of 52 is competitive for this maiden claiming level. In a field where nobody has won before, the horse with the best rating and a respectable price is the logical top choice.

place2Freedom EmpireML 7/2

Freedom Empire is the only horse in this field who has actually finished in the money before — a 7% career win rate means he's at least broken through at some level. Trainer Heriberto Villalobos goes with Ademar Santos, and the average speed figure of 53 is actually the best in the field. At 7/2, there's real place value here for a horse that brings some actual form into a race full of winless competitors.

show5Street StyleML 7/5

Street Style is the morning line favorite at 7/5, which tells you the track handicapper sees something we should respect — likely sharp workouts or debut profile. The TrackWiz rating of 52.19 is modest, but in a maiden field this green, pace scenario and debut fitness can outweigh historical numbers. At odds that will likely compress further, Street Style is best kept as a show bet or exacta fill rather than a straight win wager.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:47 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The turf opener at 5½ furlongs features a horse the TrackWiz model loves at a fair price, while the morning line favorite brings a perfect record but an interesting profile — pace shape on the grass should be decisive.

win2Joe the TailorML 3/1

Joe the Tailor is our top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the best in the field by a clear margin — and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate win play rather than just a chalk bet. Trainer Armando Hernandez puts Alexander Bendezu in the irons, and the 33% career win rate is excellent for an allowance turf sprinter. The average speed figure of 56 ties for best in the field, and at 5½ furlongs on grass, a horse with that combination of tactical speed and class is built for this spot.

place5Gunny SackML 6/1

Gunny Sack at 6/1 is our place pick and the best value in this race — the 33% career win rate matches our top selection, and the average speed figure of 55 keeps him right in the mix on paper. Trainer Frank J. Kirby has him priced like a horse that needs to improve, but the underlying numbers say otherwise. In a turf sprint where pace can be uneven, a horse with Gunny Sack's win rate at a generous price is an excellent exacta partner.

show1King of ShebaML 5/2

King of Sheba enters with the most eye-catching number in the field — a 100% career win rate — though that likely reflects a very limited sample. Trainer Larry Rivelli teams up with Jareth Loveberry, one of the better jockey-trainer combos at this meet, and the average speed figure of 56 ties for best in the race. At 5/2, the price won't stay there long once the public notices that win rate, making King of Sheba a solid show anchor and a reasonable part of your multi-leg exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

6:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The top three horses in this turf claiming sprint are separated by fewer than four TrackWiz rating points, setting up a genuine three-way battle — and the morning line favorite is actually the highest-rated horse, which doesn't always happen in this game.

win7NitschkeML 8/5

Nitschke tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.38 and is the 8/5 morning line choice, with trainer Chris M. Block sending him out alongside the meet's leading rider Jareth Loveberry. The 25% career win rate is the best in this field and stands out at the claiming level — one in four starts ends in a win. At 7½ furlongs on turf, a horse with that strike rate and a capable handler duo should be the one to beat.

place5Big DML 6/1

Big D at 6/1 is a standout value play for place honors, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — just 2.67 points behind the top pick. The average speed figure of 55 is the highest in the race, which suggests he may have more raw ability than his price implies. Trainer Hugo Rodriguez goes with Frank Reyes, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Big D is a horse you want in your exacta box.

show3Frontier MarshalML 9/2

Frontier Marshal rounds out our trifecta recommendation at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 81.90 — this race truly has three horses bunched at the top. The 11% career win rate is respectable for a claiming turf runner, and trainer Michele Boyce has him ready with Olaf Hernandez up. The average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and in a pace scenario where the top two might push each other, a closer like Frontier Marshal could be sitting on a big performance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

An eight-horse turf mile at the claiming level where the TrackWiz model strongly favors the morning line chalk, but a pair of mid-priced horses offer legitimate upset potential and exotic value in what should be a competitive pace scenario.

win5Moogie SonML 8/5

Moogie Son is the clear top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the best number in a field of eight — and the connections are excellent: trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry, who have been one of the more productive pairings at this Hawthorne meet. The 8/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence, and at a mile on turf, a horse this highly rated has the profile of a horse that should handle the distance well. The 7% career win rate is surprisingly modest given the high rating, which may signal improving form.

place7Canyon StreakML 9/2

Canyon Streak at 9/2 is our place pick and brings a 15% career win rate — the highest in this field — giving him legitimate win upside even as we slot him for place. Trainer Hugo Rodriguez saddles Luis H. Colon, and the average speed figure of 53 matches the field median, keeping this one competitively placed on paper. In a turf mile where pace can shuffle the deck, a horse with Canyon Streak's win rate at a fair price deserves a spot in your exacta.

show3Poncho AttackML 8/1

Poncho Attack is our show pick and an intriguing value angle at 8/1 on the morning line. The average speed figure of 56 is the best in the entire field, which is a stat that tends to matter at a route distance on grass where sustained speed wins out. Trainer Shane Childers runs two horses in this race with E. T. Baird aboard this one, and a 7% career win rate in claiming turf company isn't a dealbreaker when the raw speed numbers pop like that. Use him underneath in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line: Hawthorne's Sunday card is a solid one, with legitimate value scattered across all seven races. Blazing Affair, Prince Day, and Rumbling headline the free picks, while the turf trio in the back half offers the most intrigue — and the most opportunity — for subscribers with the full TrackWiz breakdown in hand. Bet smart, stay patient, and good luck out there today.

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