Daily Picks

Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 6, 2026

Monday, July 6, 20268 racesFinger Lakes

It's a wet one at Finger Lakes today. Rain is falling at post time with temperatures sitting at 76°F, and that means the dirt is going to play differently than it does on a sunny afternoon. Expect the strip to be sloppy or at least muddy heading into the early races, which historically rewards horses that love to get on the lead and splash through the going — not everyone in today's fields does.

We've got eight races on the card, a full day of mostly claiming action with a pair of Maiden Special Weight sprints mixed in to keep things interesting. TrackWiz analysis has identified standouts across the card, but the two MSW races in particular carry a level of unpredictability that makes exotic wagering genuinely compelling today. Buckle up — off-tracks at Finger Lakes can get wild in a hurry.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tale of two tiers in this 6-furlong dirt claimer — Real Eleve and Flying in Style sit well above the field on TrackWiz ratings, leaving four horses battling for scraps in the exotics.

win4Real EleveML 3/1

Real Eleve is the standout on our ratings at 87.08, and trainer Katlynn Gutterson hands the reins to Jacqueline A. Davis in what looks like a well-spotted effort. A 13% career win rate is respectable for this level, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees this is a legitimate contender without fully pricing out the value. At 6 furlongs on the dirt, Real Eleve's average speed figure of 53 keeps pace with the top of the field — this horse simply grades out better than the competition.

place1Flying in StyleML 2/1

Flying in Style draws the rail and carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 80.48, making it a logical safety net if Real Eleve stumbles. The 2/1 morning line makes this the public's favorite, but the 5% career win rate does raise a flag — this horse hits the board more than it wins, which is exactly the profile you want in a place spot. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call for trainer Charlton Baker, a combination worth tracking.

show5Burning MunnyML 6/1

Burning Munny at 6/1 offers a touch of value for the show slot with a 10% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 — matching the top horses on raw speed. Trainer Thalia Areche sends this one out with Michael A. Davila, Jr. up, and the TrackWiz rating of 49.13, while mid-pack, is enough to sneak into the superfecta conversation. At those odds, the reward-to-risk in exotics is real.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Diva Banker looks like a class apart in this six-furlong claiming sprint, but Honorable Lilly and Lanalikeschoochoos give the exacta some genuine intrigue.

win4Diva BankerML 9/5

Diva Banker owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field by a comfortable margin at 88.83, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the confidence the connections have in this spot. A 14% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and trainer David Oyola puts Michael A. Davila, Jr. aboard — a jockey who gets the most out of horses at this oval. With an average speed figure of 53 matching the middle tier of the field but a ratings edge that towers over everyone else, this looks like a well-prepared favorite.

place6Honorable LillyML 5/1

Honorable Lilly is an interesting place play at 5/1 — the TrackWiz rating of 68.28 is third in the field, but the gap between her and She's a Freud suggests she's the clear second-best option on our model. Jeremias Flores is aboard for trainer Rachel Sells, and an 11% career win rate in the claiming game indicates a horse that finds the board with some regularity. If Diva Banker gets pressured on the front end, Honorable Lilly could be the one to collar her late.

show5LanalikeschoochoosML 4/1

Lanalikeschoochoos — yes, the name is a mouthful — brings a 17% career win rate that ranks second in this field and a TrackWiz rating of 60.94 that puts her solidly in the mix. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Ilmar Loaiza, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the show price won't be generous, but the underlying credentials make this a trustworthy exotic anchor. The consistent speed figures (53 average) suggest she'll run her race.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Mad Magic is a heavy chalk at even money in this mile-and-70-yard dirt claimer, but Pure Elegance and a sneaky longshot in Ringgood give bettors reasons to look beyond a straight win bet.

win2Mad MagicML EVN

Mad Magic carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field — a clean 90.0 — and the even-money price tells you the market has done its homework here. Luis E. Perez pilots for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, and a 16% career win rate over a longer route profile is encouraging at a route distance like a mile-and-70. The speed figure of 52 is right in line with the field, meaning this horse doesn't need to blow everyone away on raw speed — the overall quality grade does the talking.

place6Pure EleganceML 4/1

Pure Elegance brings the second-best rating at 65.96 and an 18% career win rate — the highest in this field — which tells you this horse knows how to compete when the distance stretches out. Trainer Ilmar Loaiza sends out Reylu Gutierrez, a capable hand at Finger Lakes, and the 4/1 morning line offers some place value if the favorite stumbles. Speed figure of 51 is modest, but route races at this level are won on stamina and positioning as much as raw numbers.

show1RinggoodML 10/1

Ringgood is the longshot of our selected trio at 10/1, but a TrackWiz rating of 48.91 and a 7% career win rate at least show a horse that has found the winner's circle before at this level. Trainer Brent Bond sends Steven Fret out to the tricky mile-and-70 configuration, a distance that can favor horses who settle nicely early. At double-digit odds, even a minor share of the exacta or trifecta payout makes Ringgood worth a small inclusion.

Three races are unlocked for all TrackWiz readers today, and they tell a nice story on their own. Mad Magic (Race 3, 1 mile 70 yards) comes in as the highest-rated free pick on the card at a perfect 90.0 — that kind of number at even money is rare, and the added ground of the route should suit a horse that TrackWiz projects to handle the off-going well. Real Eleve kicks off the card in Race 1 at 3/1 morning line, and Diva Banker follows in Race 2 as the 9/5 chalk — both sprinting six furlongs on a surface that, when wet, tends to favor early pace. Watch how the first couple of races develop: if front-runners are holding on, lean into that angle hard when Diva Banker breaks from the gate.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Limit Up sets up as the clear top selection in a wide-open 5.5-furlong claiming sprint, but a competitive pace scenario could set things up nicely for closers Breaking Stones and Father Walsh.

win4Limit UpML 7/2

Limit Up grades out as the best horse in this race according to TrackWiz analysis with an 86.35 rating, and the 7/2 morning line is fair value for what looks like a legitimate class edge. The 19% career win rate is one of the best in the field, and the average speed figure of 55 — the highest among all eight runners — suggests this horse can flat-out run. Reylu Gutierrez picks up the mount for trainer Chris J. Englehart, a barn that knows how to place horses.

place8Breaking StonesML 3/1

Breaking Stones has the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 76.62 and a 16% career win rate, putting this horse firmly in the conversation as the most likely to spoil the party. Jeremias Flores takes the mount for Paul W. Barrow, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps pace with the top of the field. The 3/1 morning line is legitimate — if the pace gets honest upfront, Breaking Stones' profile as a potential closer could be the difference.

show7Father WalshML 4/1

Father Walsh rounds out our selected trio at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 56.85 and a 16% career win rate — the same clip as Breaking Stones — making this a horse that knows how to compete at this level. Chris Russell is in the irons for trainer Michael T. Sabine, and an average speed figure of 54 confirms Father Walsh can match the field on raw pace. At 4/1, the show price adds a little cushion to an already defensible exotic inclusion.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight sprint is a wide-open puzzle — every horse is winless, speed figures are scattered, and our model finds genuine separation at the top with a value win pick at 8/1.

win8Practically SummerML 8/1

Practically Summer is our top selection at 8/1 — a value price that doesn't reflect the 79.79 TrackWiz rating, which is the second-best mark in the field. Trainer Aadil S. Khan sends out J.M. Rohena, and an average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the better runners in this maiden field. In a race where everyone is winless, the horse grading out near the top of the model at a generous price is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis targets.

place5Signal ChatML 4/1

Signal Chat carries a 75.93 TrackWiz rating and a consistent average speed of 53, making her a logical place alternative behind our top pick. Emanuel De Diego takes the mount for trainer Rachel Sells — a Finger Lakes barn that is no stranger to the winner's circle — and the 4/1 morning line reflects a horse the public respects. In maiden races, you want horses that have shown something in training or prior starts, and Signal Chat's model score suggests she belongs near the top of this group.

show7AtiraML 5/1

Atira sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 66.98 — third-best in the field — and trainer Chris J. Englehart has a knack for developing young horses at this level. Andre Shivnarine Worrie picks up the mount, and the average speed figure of 52 is competitive enough in a maiden sprint where no one has broken their maiden yet. As a show play or trifecta inclusion, Atira offers the combination of a reputable barn and solid underlying numbers.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Celeslia draws the rail and dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden sprint, but Playingon Broadway and Barbed Wire Barbie give the exacta real teeth at solid prices.

win1CelesliaML 3/1

Celeslia tops the TrackWiz model at 87.08 — a score that matches Real Eleve from Race 1 — and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market is firmly behind trainer Paul W. Barrow's charge. Jeremias Flores gets the call, and an average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the better runners in this field. In a maiden race, having the top-rated horse at a fair price drawing the rail in a sprint is about as clean a setup as you'll find — Celeslia looks like the one to beat.

place9Playingon BroadwayML 5/1

Playingon Broadway carries a 76.05 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Kevin Navarro picks up the mount for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, a barn that regularly fires sharp maiden winners. The 5/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse grading out this well, and an average speed figure of 53 keeps pace with the top of the field. If Celeslia gets caught in traffic from the rail, Playingon Broadway is perfectly positioned to capitalize.

show8Barbed Wire BarbieML 6/1

Barbed Wire Barbie brings an intriguing angle — the highest average speed figure in the entire field at 55, which stands out in a maiden sprint where raw speed can be decisive. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro sends out Emanuel De Diego, and a TrackWiz rating of 65.79 gives this horse a legitimate claim to the show spot. At 6/1, there's real value in the exotics if the early speed translates to a competitive effort through the stretch.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Beta looks like the class of this mile-and-70 claimer with a big model advantage, but an oddly short favorite in Bourbon Chase creates a potential value mismatch worth exploiting.

win4BetaML 2/1

Beta owns an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a significant margin — and a 21% career win rate that leads all seven runners. Luis E. Perez takes the mount for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, who also saddles Bourbon Chase, giving the barn a two-horse shot at the winner's circle. The 2/1 morning line is honest value for a horse with this kind of underlying profile, and the route distance (mile-and-70) suits a horse with a higher floor than the sprint alternatives in this field.

place7RevivalismML 4/1

Revivalism brings a 67.74 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate, making this the clear second-best option on our model in a field where the middle tier is tightly bunched. Kevin Navarro takes the mount for Jonathan B. Buckley at 4/1, and an average speed figure of 54 — the highest in the field — suggests Revivalism can match pace with the front-runners before potentially putting them away. This is the horse to key underneath Beta in exactas.

show3Bourbon ChaseML 6/5

Bourbon Chase is the 6/5 favorite on the morning line, which makes the show slot feel like a hedge play rather than a value one — but the 57.82 TrackWiz rating and 12% career win rate confirm this horse at least belongs on the board. Keiber J. Coa takes the mount for co-trainer Michael S. Ferraro, meaning the same barn controls both the model's top pick and the public's choice. The disconnect between Bourbon Chase's short price and Beta's superior rating is the story of this race.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Fast Amendment brings a strong model score to this mile claimer but faces legitimate pressure from Mandalorian, who boasts the best career win rate in the field — a clash of quality that makes the exacta worth constructing carefully.

win2Fast AmendmentML 5/2

Fast Amendment tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and gets the call of Keiber J. Coa for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro — a combination that commands respect at Finger Lakes. The 5/2 morning line is fair for the model leader, though the 7% career win rate is one of the lower marks in this field, which means this horse may be pointing toward a career peak performance here. At a flat mile, pace setup will be critical, and Fast Amendment's profile suggests a horse that can rate off the early speed and close into the stretch.

place8MandalorianML 4/1

Mandalorian is the most accomplished horse in this field on a pure win-rate basis — a 25% career win rate is an elite mark at the claiming level and demands respect in any race. Emanuel De Diego takes the mount for trainer Rachel Sells, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.33 (second in the field) confirms this isn't a paper credential. The 4/1 morning line is solid value for a horse with that kind of strike rate, and Mandalorian is the most dangerous threat to Fast Amendment's win ticket.

show7Connect the BrocksML 3/1

Connect the Brocks sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 68.97 — third-best in the field — but the 2% career win rate is a significant red flag for a horse at that price. Jeremias Flores rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and the average speed figure of 53 is competitive. The model likes this horse enough to include it in the show position, but the win-rate caveat is real — this looks like a horse that runs well without sealing the deal, which is exactly why show is the right spot.

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Bottom line: the rain is the story at Finger Lakes today, and it creates both opportunity and chaos in equal measure. Mad Magic is the marquee free play, Real Eleve and Diva Banker give early-card bettors two strong starting points, and the premium card is loaded with pace angles and longshot spots worth exploring. Full analysis — including every race, every pace projection, and today's exotic ticket breakdowns — is waiting for subscribers. Don't go in blind on a sloppy track day.

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