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Fair Meadows Picks & Predictions — June 11, 2026

Thursday, June 11, 202610 racesFair Meadows

Fair Meadows rolls out a full 10-race card this Thursday afternoon under cloudy skies and a warm 85°F. No rain in the picture means the Tulsa oval should be running fast and true — good news for speed horses and front-runners who can get clear in the early going.

The card covers a wide range of conditions, from quick-burst quarter-horse sprints to a full mile maiden claimer, so there's plenty of angles to work no matter what your preferred betting style looks like. Three races are open to everyone, and our premium breakdown covers all 10 with full pace projections and exotic ticket breakdowns.

Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 110 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't match the TrackWiz ratings in this 110-yard sprint opener — two horses rated 85+ are flying under the public's radar while Dance Hawl Gal opens as the 7/5 chalk despite a middling rating.

win2XpressivML 4/1

Xpressiv (85.62 TrackWiz rating) is the top-rated horse in the field and returns solid value at 4/1 on the morning line — a number that looks generous given the edge our analysis shows. With a 25% career win rate, he's the most accomplished winner in this five-horse field and is being overlooked while the favorite draws most of the attention. Trainer Hernesto Ramirez puts him in with jockey Mario Delgado, and at 110 yards everything comes down to the break and raw ability — both of which this horse's profile supports.

place3Bye to YouML 7/2

Bye to You runs almost neck-and-neck with Xpressiv in the ratings at 85.53, which makes this essentially a photo finish on paper between the top two. Roman Cruz gets the call for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, and at 7/2 there's legitimate win upside here too — don't sleep on Bye to You if you like the number. A 20% career win rate is respectable in this kind of sprint company.

show4Dance Hawl GalML 7/5

Dance Hawl Gal is the morning line favorite at 7/5 under Cordarelton J. Benn, but the 46.48 TrackWiz rating is a significant step below the top two in the field. That said, a 22% career win rate and trainer Luz Chavira's confidence in placing her at the top of the morning line makes her worth including as a show hedge in your exotics — she clearly has backers who know something.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Striking Storm draws plenty of morning line support as the 2/1 favorite, but Soar Eagle Soar holds a commanding ratings edge in this eight-horse claiming sprint — a wide field that sets up nicely for an exacta-minded bettor.

win2Soar Eagle SoarML 3/1

Soar Eagle Soar tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and opens at a fair 3/1, representing solid value against a short-priced morning line favorite. Trainer Luz Chavira also saddles Striking Storm in this same race, which is a noteworthy barn double — but Soar Eagle Soar is clearly the stable's top horse here based on our numbers. Jockey Cordarelton J. Benn gets the mount, and at 250 yards this race is over in a blink, so the edge in raw talent matters enormously.

place5Handsome JessML 4/1

Handsome Jess checks in at a 69.51 rating and opens at 4/1, making her a legitimate price horse for place and exacta purposes. Trainer Valerie Torres saddles both Handsome Jess and The Handsome Prize in this field — the fact that Handsome Jess draws the longer morning line odds than her stablemate despite a much higher rating suggests the public may be underestimating her. Jockey Jasten Pedraza takes the mount on what should be the stronger Torres runner.

show8Striking StormML 2/1

Striking Storm carries the most public support in the field at 2/1 under Gonzalo Gutierrez and gets trainer Luz Chavira's second look in the race. A 63.94 rating keeps her comfortably in the mix, and as the probable betting favorite she's the kind of horse that holds its value in show slots and in the bottom of exactas — just don't let the short price convince you she's a clear class standout here.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 fur · Dirt

Miss Escapade stands out as a clear class figure in this four-furlong claiming field — her ratings lead is substantial, but the 5/2 morning line suggests the market already knows she's the one to beat.

win6Miss EscapadeML 5/2

Miss Escapade's 87.81 TrackWiz rating is the highest in the field by a comfortable margin, and her 20% career win rate reinforces that she converts at a solid clip when conditions are right. Trainer Steve F. Williams sends her out with jockey Angel Ortega Stanley, a combination that appears multiple times on today's card — they clearly have a good working relationship. At 5/2 she's not a gift price, but the ratings advantage here is real enough to make her the confident top selection at four furlongs on the Fair Meadows dirt.

place3AspirationalML 6/1

Aspirational is an interesting price play at 6/1 with a 61.11 rating that edges out Bold Appeal for the second spot in our analysis. Trainer Satchell Stevens keeps her competitive at this level, and Belen Quinonez takes a relatively light book to the mount here — she's a rider worth tracking. Aspirational also carries an average speed figure of 54, matching most of the field, so she's not giving up anything physically.

show2Bold AppealML 3/1

Bold Appeal sits just a tick behind Aspirational at 60.08 with the same 54 average speed figure, and the 16% career win rate is the best in the field outside of Miss Escapade. Trainer James Victor Hale puts Leandro D. Goncalves up, and at 3/1 on the morning line Bold Appeal offers solid show insurance if things shake out differently at the top. In a claiming race at four furlongs, pace scenarios can flip quickly, and having Bold Appeal in your exotics isn't a stretch.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of the card — a short-burst 110-yard opener, a 250-yard claiming sprint, and a four-furlong dirt test. All three are on a surface that should be playing quick today, which matters a lot at these distances where fractions of a second define everything.

TrackWiz analysis points to Xpressiv (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) as the top-rated free pick of the trio with an 85.62 rating, while Miss Escapade paces the group with an 87.81 in Race 3 at the 5/2 number — a horse we like against this field. Soar Eagle Soar in Race 2 sits right in between at 87.08 and deserves serious consideration in the exacta. All three figures to benefit from whatever early speed bias the track is showing this afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:18 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Captain Hamazing looks like the kind of heavy favorite that demands respect in a five-horse maiden claimer — a 90 TrackWiz rating and 3/5 morning line point to a horse clearly ahead of this field on paper.

win3Captain HamazingML 3/5

Captain Hamazing's 90.00 TrackWiz rating is not only tops in this field, it's tops on the entire card today — and trainer Tim Dixon puts Curtis Kimes up on what looks like a well-prepared runner. The 3/5 morning line says the market agrees completely. In a maiden claiming mile on the dirt, a horse with this kind of rating edge often just needs to run his race — no heroics required. The value isn't there for win-only wagering, but in exotics he anchors every ticket with confidence.

place4BouaziziML 10/1

Bouazizi is the sneaky play in this field at 10/1 on the morning line, posting a 61.83 TrackWiz rating that puts her clearly ahead of the rest of the field outside of Captain Hamazing. Trainer April Gustafson keeps Bouazizi's form in order, and Belen Quinonez takes the mount — she's been active and competitive on today's card. Notably, Bouazizi carries the highest average speed figure in the field at 53, which stands out in a race where the overall speed numbers are fairly modest.

show1Out With TyML 4/1

Out With Ty opens at 4/1 under Lindsey Hebert for trainer Michael C. Gunter, carrying a 55.62 rating that lands third among runners in this field. The 49 average speed figure is toward the lower end of this group, so he'll need pace help to hit the board, but at morning line odds that imply some public confidence, he's a reasonable show bet to round out the ticket if Captain Hamazing runs as expected and you're trying to find value underneath.

Race 5

12:46 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Moon Crater holds a commanding ratings edge in this six-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint, but the 5/2 morning line means the market has found her — the real question is whether Call Darla can pressure her enough to cause trouble.

win3Moon CraterML 5/2

Moon Crater's 87.81 TrackWiz rating — identical to Miss Escapade's earlier in the card — puts her in a different class from the rest of this field. Trainer Steve F. Williams and jockey Angel Ortega Stanley are one of the most active partnerships at today's Fair Meadows card, and their numbers together warrant attention. Despite only a 6% career win rate, the ratings profile says the performances have been there — and a six-and-a-half furlong trip should suit a horse of her caliber in this claiming field.

place5Call DarlaML 2/1

Call Darla opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite, which tells you something — the betting public is split on the top two here. With a 63.74 TrackWiz rating and an 8% career win rate, she brings respectable credentials, and Cassidy D. B. Fletcher is an experienced hand who can manage pace through six and a half furlongs. If Moon Crater has any issues from the gate, Call Darla is positioned to capitalize and could very well flip the result.

show4DaretocatchloveML 4/1

Daretocatchlove catches the eye with the field's top average speed figure at 53 and a 61.39 TrackWiz rating that keeps her firmly in the mix. Trainer Samuel Gaytan Jr. has double representation in this race, also saddling La Camelia, but Daretocatchlove appears to be the stronger runner based on the numbers. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate show ticket and could sneak into an exacta if the top two set things up honestly.

Race 6

1:14 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Gospel Don opens as a short-priced 7/5 favorite in this maiden special weight sprint, but Chivato and Berlioz both have speed figures that could make this more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win6Gospel DonML 7/5

Gospel Don tops the field with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the strongest number in this six-horse maiden field and among the best on the card. Trainer Steve F. Williams again pairs with Angel Ortega Stanley, and the 7/5 morning line reflects a field that clearly hasn't gone unnoticed. The 51 average speed figure is modest, but in a maiden special weight sprint where no one has won yet, overall rating and preparation often tell the story more than raw speed alone.

place3ChivatoML 3/1

Chivato is the most interesting price in this race at 3/1 for trainer James Victor Hale and jockey Emanuel Castillo Zabala. His 62.21 TrackWiz rating leads all other horses aside from Gospel Don, and he matches Aspirational's 53 average speed figure from Race 3 — a mark that held up fine in that field. If Gospel Don stumbles out of the gate or faces any early pressure, Chivato is the one most likely to be there at the wire.

show1BerliozML 4/1

Berlioz is worth a look in exotics at 4/1 despite being third in our ratings at 55.00, because his 56 average speed figure is actually the highest in this field — a data point that doesn't line up with his morning line odds. Trainer Mike Abney sends him out with Obed Sanchez, and in a maiden sprint where raw speed off the break matters, that figure deserves some respect. He's the kind of horse you include in trifecta tickets at a price rather than betting to win outright.

Race 7

1:42 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line undervalues Awesome Outlaw in what shapes up as a wide-open six-furlong claimer — four horses are rated 70 or above, and the public's 2/1 favorite Vicente's Shadow only ranks third in our analysis.

win4Awesome OutlawML 6/1

Awesome Outlaw opens at 6/1 despite posting an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — which is exactly the kind of disconnect TrackWiz analysis is designed to find. Trainer James Victor Hale sends him out with Travis Cunningham up, and while the 6% career win rate might give some bettors pause, the rating says the talent is there. At six furlongs on the Fair Meadows dirt, a horse with this kind of edge at double-digit-territory morning line odds is a legitimate best bet candidate.

place6R D C PosseML 5/1

R D C Posse brings the best career win percentage among the top-rated runners at 14%, which is a meaningful data point in a claiming field where execution matters as much as talent. The 76.43 TrackWiz rating supports a strong finish, and trainer Steve F. Williams goes back to Angel Ortega Stanley — a pairing that's been reliable throughout today's card. At 5/1, R D C Posse makes for an attractive place bet and belongs in exacta combos underneath Awesome Outlaw.

show3Vicente's ShadowML 2/1

Vicente's Shadow opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite and will almost certainly be the public's choice, but our ratings peg him third in the field at 75.89 — a solid horse, just overbet relative to his edge. Trainer Satchell Stevens keeps him sharp and Curtis Kimes is a capable pilot, so he's not without merit. He makes sense as show insurance given the public money backing, but the value in this race is clearly elsewhere.

Race 8

2:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Hollywood Icon looks like a horse the public and TrackWiz agree on in this six-and-a-half furlong claimer — a 7/5 morning line backed by a 89.42 rating and a 20% career win rate makes for an unusually aligned picture.

win6Hollywood IconML 7/5

Hollywood Icon carries the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 89.42, a 20% career win rate that's the field's best, and the top average speed figure at 54 — it's a clean sweep of the key metrics. Trainer Boyd Caster deploys Belen Quinonez, who's had a productive card today, and at 7/5 the morning line isn't generous but the résumé justifies the price. In a claiming field where most rivals are posting figures in the 50s and 60s, Hollywood Icon looks like a class standout running against beatable opposition.

place4Code MandaloreML 4/1

Code Mandalore is the most compelling alternative in this race at 4/1, with a 77.76 TrackWiz rating that creates a real gap between him and the rest of the field below Hollywood Icon. Trainer J. Alan Williams puts Lindsey Hebert in the irons, and the 53 average speed figure matches his top-tier rivals. If Hollywood Icon has any stumble — or if the pace sets up poorly — Code Mandalore is the most likely horse to be there picking up the pieces.

show1LeavenodoubtML 5/1

Leavenodoubt opens at 5/1 with a 62.43 TrackWiz rating and connects with Leandro D. Goncalves for trainer George Blatchford. The 51 average speed figure is modest, but at six and a half furlongs there's enough ground for a closer to find a path to the board. In a race where the top two draw most of the exotic action, Leavenodoubt at 5/1 offers some trifecta value for bettors looking for a price in the third spot.

Race 9

2:38 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses with matching 55 average speed figures and complementary ratings set up a potential one-two punch in this allowance closer — Raspberry Martini and Stormy's Revenge may simply be better than the rest of the field.

win5Raspberry MartiniML 8/5

Raspberry Martini posts an 89.12 TrackWiz rating alongside a 26% career win rate — a horse that wins often and rates extremely well in the TrackWiz model. The 55 average speed figure matches the field's peak, and Travis Cunningham gets the call for trainer Juan Padilla. At 8/5 on the morning line, the market has caught up to her, but when you're looking at a horse who converts at better than one-in-four attempts in allowance company, taking the short price is justifiable.

place1Stormy's RevengeML 7/5

Stormy's Revenge is the most interesting angle in the race — a 33% career win rate is the best on the entire card today among horses with meaningful career samples. Trainer Boyd Caster and jockey Curtis Kimes are a formidable pairing, and the 78.83 TrackWiz rating keeps Stormy's Revenge firmly in the hunt. She opens at 7/5 as the morning line co-favorite, and while Raspberry Martini edges her in our ratings, this is a horse fully capable of reversing the order on any given afternoon.

show4Miss Code RedML 5/1

Miss Code Red rounds out the ticket at 5/1, bringing a 68.95 TrackWiz rating and a respectable 20% career win rate that holds up well against the field below the top two. Trainer J. Alan Williams deploys Lindsey Hebert, and the 53 average speed figure shows she can run — just not quite at the level of the top pair. In a five-horse allowance field where the top two draw heavy action, Miss Code Red at 5/1 is an attractive show price and worth including in trifectas.

Race 10

3:06 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Pea Eye owns a commanding TrackWiz edge in the card finale but opens at a fair 3/1 — in an eight-horse claiming field with plenty of pace pressure possible, finding a closer with value underneath is the real puzzle.

win5Pea EyeML 3/1

Pea Eye tops this field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure that ties him with the best in the race, yet the morning line opens him at 3/1 — better value than you'd typically expect from the clear top-rated runner. Trainer Tim Dixon sends Curtis Kimes up, and that's an active, successful pairing today at Fair Meadows. The 4% career win rate is the one note of caution here, but in a deep eight-horse claiming field, raw class and preparation often win out over conversion history.

place6Gospel NativeML 5/2

Gospel Native at 5/2 carries a 70.55 TrackWiz rating and a 51 average speed figure, but the real angle here is trainer Steve F. Williams running Gospel Native in his home territory — Williams has multiple horses on the card today and clearly knows this circuit. Angel Ortega Stanley picks up the mount, and if Gospel Native gets a clean trip from the inside post in this eight-horse field, she's well-placed to run down tiring early speed.

show7Double R CatML 8/1

Double R Cat is worth flagging as a show value at 8/1 on the morning line, posting a 66.19 TrackWiz rating that actually ranks third in this field — a substantial discrepancy from his odds. Trainer Jody Pruitt sends him out with Obed Sanchez up, and the 51 average speed figure suggests he's competitive in the final furlongs of a six-and-a-half furlong race. At those double-digit odds, Double R Cat is a live trifecta piece and a sneaky show bet to finish out the card.

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Today's Fair Meadows card is a solid Thursday slate with real betting opportunities from Race 1 through Race 10. Our top free plays — Xpressiv, Soar Eagle Soar, and Miss Escapade — are a strong starting point, and the premium races feature some of the best-rated contenders on the card including Captain Hamazing and Hollywood Icon. Full analysis, pace scenarios, and exotic tickets are available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — bet smart.

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