Emerald Downs Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

Bad Sneakers brings the most experienced winning profile in this field — a 20% career win rate that outpaces everyone else in the starting gate. Alex V. Anaya gets the call for trainer Joe Toye, and with a TrackWiz rating of 73.06, this horse is sitting just off the top of the class hierarchy. The 5/2 morning line makes him the co-second choice, and he's the kind of solid closer who can sweep up if the pace heats up.

Keep It Coming is right on Bad Sneakers' heels at 71.98 on our rating scale, essentially dead even on paper. Blake Nunnally rides for trainer Ian Jewell, and at 4/1 there's a touch of value here for a horse that belongs in the conversation. In a race where the top three are this tightly bunched, including Keep It Coming in your exotics is just smart coverage.

Bella Ciao Ciao is the morning line favorite at 7/5 and posts a strong 78.59 TrackWiz rating, so fading her entirely would be reckless. Kevin Krigger climbs aboard for trainer Faustino Patino, and the 55 average speed figure is competitive. She's the type that could easily reverse the order with our top pick, so playing her underneath keeps you covered both ways.

Dixie's Delight at 4/1 rounds out a logical exacta/trifecta box with a 68.53 rating and a competitive 55 average speed. Silvio Ruiz Amador rides for Charles Essex, and the 9% career win rate suggests a horse that runs close but hasn't broken through often — exactly the kind of profile that lands third regularly. The price makes her a worthwhile show inclusion.

Leah's Lute is our place pick at 4/1 with a 73.82 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and a legitimate value play at that price. Blake Nunnally has been riding live mounts all card and teams with trainer Rosie Simkins. The 12% career win rate and 54 average speed figure point to a horse that competes consistently and rarely embarrasses — exactly what you want in a place slot.

Flyin'wildnfree brings the best career win rate in this field at 20% — a number that stands out when most rivals are well below that mark. Isaias D. Enriquez rides for Michael Puhich from the rail, and the 64.95 rating puts this horse third in the class order. At 3/1 morning line, the show price might not be great if bet down, but in trifecta coverage, this is a horse you want included.

A Skip in the Park checks in at 72.25 on our scale with a career win rate of 19% — the best among the horses we're recommending in this race. Frank T. Alvarado rides for Tom Wenzel, who has sent out live runners throughout the card today. The 3/1 morning line is a fair number for a horse of this profile, and that win rate suggests he runs hard every time he steps on the track.

Bluegrass Go Go sits at 71.00 — just a point behind A Skip in the Park — and brings Kevin Krigger into the tack for trainer Blaine D. Wright. At 5/2, the morning line makes him the second choice, but our analysis has him third in the order. That slight disconnect between public price and our ratings actually makes him a strong show anchor — the crowd is pricing him in; we're just slotting him one notch lower.

Gold Lane comes off an 8-hole with Blake Nunnally up and a respectable 61.82 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. Trainer Charles Essex drops this one into a maiden claiming spot, and the 6/1 morning line offers genuine overlay value for a horse with a 54 average speed figure. Nunnally has been sharp today, and the outside post could actually be a gift in a maiden sprint where traffic can be messy early.

Believe in Her rounds out the trifecta at 59.70 on our ratings with Alex M. Cruz up for trainer James L. Gilmour. The 52 average speed figure is on the modest side, but in a maiden field where nothing has proven itself, that's less disqualifying than it would be elsewhere. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's real overlay value if you're constructing a trifecta — she's the kind of filly who can sneak into the money at a price.