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Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026

July 9, 20268 racesAll Colonial Downs picks

This card ran on July 9, 2026.

Best bets at Colonial Downs, July 9, 2026

Race 17Forty Seven SmokerML 4/112:35 PM EDT

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It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Colonial Downs — 86°F with partly cloudy skies and what shapes up to be a turf-friendly day across an eight-race card. The track has built its reputation on some of the widest, most grass-friendly courses on the East Coast, and today's card leans heavily into that identity with six of eight races run on the turf.

The footing should be in good shape under those partly cloudy skies — no rain concerns to scramble your handicapping — which means speed figures and pace projections will carry real weight today. If you like horses who can settle and come running on firm going, this is your kind of card.

We've got three free race breakdowns to get you started and five premium races behind the paywall for subscribers who want the full picture. Let's dig in.

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Race 1

12:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf sprint throws a large field of first-timers at us, but the TrackWiz ratings separate three horses from the rest by a clear margin — making this more structured than the chaos of the field size suggests.

win7Forty Seven SmokerML 4/1

Forty Seven Smoker draws our top rating in this field at 85.62 — the highest mark in the race — and pairs that edge with a solid average speed figure of 55. Trainer Mark Shuman sends this one out at a 4/1 morning line that looks fair but not overdone for a horse with this kind of separation from the rest of the field. With jockey Jorge Ruiz in the irons, this is the horse TrackWiz analysis points to first in the win spot. In a field of maidens all starting at 0% career wins, raw ratings and speed figures are the best compass we have.

place3CuddlerML 9/2

Cuddler checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 79.9 — second-best in the field — and comes in at an inviting 9/2 on the morning line with Sonny Leon aboard. The combination of a strong rating, turf sprint conditions, and Leon's tactical ability makes this a compelling place contender. While the average speed figure of 52 is a tick below the top picks, Cuddler's overall profile suggests a horse capable of hitting the board.

show5RuntownML 6/1

Runtown sits third in our ratings at 73.71 and offers some value at 6/1 on the morning line with Samuel Marin up for trainer Monica McGoey. In a race where the top three rated horses have meaningful separation over the rest of the field, Runtown rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta structure for exotic players. Don't overlook this one in the lower slots of your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse here — Wickedwithbourbon's TrackWiz number makes a compelling case to beat the odds-on chalk, setting up a potential upset angle in this 6½-furlong dirt allowance.

win4WickedwithbourbonML 5/1

Wickedwithbourbon sits atop our ratings at 84.17, well clear of the field, despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a gap that could mean real value at the windows. Trainer J. Keith Desormeaux is a recognized conditioner, and Sofia Vives has the call. The 11% career win rate in an allowance field isn't flashy, but what matters most here is that this horse's TrackWiz profile outpaces even the morning line favorite Our Two Girls by a clear margin. On a 6½-furlong dirt sprint, pace will matter, and Wickedwithbourbon looks well-positioned to be a factor throughout.

place1Ms SophisticationML 7/2

Ms Sophistication brings a 20% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 71.52, landing her comfortably in the place conversation. Paco Lopez, one of the meet's sharper jockeys, gets the call for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., and that's a pairing worth noting. At 7/2, she's not a huge price, but the combination of win percentage and strong overall rating makes her a solid place anchor.

show6Our Two GirlsML 7/5

Our Two Girls opens as the 7/5 morning line favorite and carries a 71.28 TrackWiz rating, but the fact that we have her in the show spot rather than on top tells you something — the rating separation between her and Wickedwithbourbon is real. That said, trainer Kenneth G. McPeek is always dangerous in allowance conditions, and a 14% career win rate in a small field means she'll be tough to leave off tickets entirely. She's a logical show piece and part of any competitive exacta box.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races span both surfaces and two different race conditions — a pair of maiden claiming sprints on the turf (Races 1 and 3) and an allowance dirt sprint in Race 2 — giving you a solid early-card foundation to build from. On the grass, Forty Seven Smoker (Race 1, morning line 4/1) and Potcake (Race 3, morning line 5/2) are our top selections, and both fit a pattern we love at Colonial: lightly raced types with upside who are getting a surface that rewards natural ability over grinding class experience. Potcake earns our highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81 and is worth anchoring your early exotics around.

Over on the dirt in Race 2, Wickedwithbourbon jumps out at 5/1 morning line in an allowance sprint going 6½ furlongs. With a firm turf likely drawing horses away from the dirt, pace dynamics in this one could set up favorably for a closer — something our TrackWiz pace projections flagged early. Value at that price is real.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 14-horse maiden claimer on the turf is a sprawling affair, but Potcake stands out like a sore thumb at the top of the ratings — the question is whether the rest of the field can put together a legitimate challenge at 5/2 odds.

win13PotcakeML 5/2

Potcake dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 87.81 — the highest mark of any horse on today's entire card through the first three races — and an average speed figure of 55 backs that up. Trainer Sarah Nagle puts Jevian Toledo in the saddle, giving this runner a quality rider in a crowded field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a case where the favorite may actually be worth the short price given the rating gap between Potcake and the rest of the 14-horse field.

place5Fortune HillML 3/1

Fortune Hill is our runner-up pick at a TrackWiz rating of 71.69, and trainer Irvin G. Flores sends this one out at 3/1 with Jose E. Vargas up. The average speed figure of 55 matches the top horses in this field, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's reasonable value if Potcake hits trouble in traffic on the turf. Fortune Hill is a logical place horse that can anchor the bottom of your exactas.

show1Flying to WorkML 10/1

Flying to Work is the intrigue play in the show spot at 10/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth including on tickets given the TrackWiz rating of 67.2. Paco Lopez picks up the mount for trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon, and in a full field turf sprint, traffic and positioning can shift outcomes quickly. At double-digit odds, Flying to Work makes sense as a show hedge and a trifecta fill in a race where chaos is always possible.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 4

2:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer with a clear class standout on ratings — but the pace scenario over a full mile adds complexity, and a couple of closers lurking at value prices keep this from being a rubber-stamp result.

win3Be BetterML 5/2

Be Better owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 80.09 and a 20% career win rate — among the best in the field — making a strong case as the win selection despite a 5/2 morning line that reflects public respect. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III puts Paco Lopez in the irons, a pairing that immediately elevates the horse's profile. The average speed figure of 52 is competitive at this level, and at one mile on the dirt, a horse with both the rating edge and a quality pilot should be tough to beat.

place6White SeriesML 9/2

White Series checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 74.9 and an average speed of 52, sitting just behind our top pick in the overall rankings. Trainer Phillip Capuano sends out Jeiron Barbosa, and a 13% career win rate is workable for a place contender in a claiming field. At 9/2 on the morning line, White Series has the profile of a horse that hits the board more often than wins — exactly the kind of runner you want in the place spot of your tickets.

show2BigtontenML 4/1

Bigtonten brings a 19% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 66.53, giving this Phillip Capuano trainee a solid foundation as the show pick at 4/1. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the mount, and having two Capuano horses in the same race means connections likely have a read on both runners. At a mile on the dirt, pace dynamics can scramble results, and Bigtonten's experience and win percentage make him a trustworthy piece in the back end of exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The morning line has Christmas Jones as a co-favorite, but TrackWiz analysis points to a different horse entirely — Honor Our Country lands at the top of our ratings despite a 6/1 price, setting up a genuine value play scenario on the Colonial turf.

win6Honor Our CountryML 6/1

Honor Our Country tops our ratings at 82.71 in this turf-mile-and-a-sixteenth claimer while going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful edge if those numbers hold. Trainer Jamie Ness is a consistent presence at this meet, and Mychel J. Sanchez provides a stable jockey connection. A 12% career win rate isn't eye-popping, but the rating gap between this horse and the rest of the field is the real story, and a 52 average speed figure is workable over Colonial's turf.

place7WhyML 9/2

Why comes in at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 76.9 and an above-average 16% career win rate — the best win percentage among our top three picks in this race. Trainer Jane Cibelli sends this one out with Paco Lopez up, and a 54 average speed figure is a tick above most of the field. At under 5/1, Why might not offer huge value to win, but the combination of win percentage and rating makes this horse a near-lock consideration in the place spot of your exotics.

show3Christmas JonesML 3/1

Christmas Jones opens as one of the morning line co-favorites at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 75.71, and trainer Keri Brion has this runner showing a 55 average speed figure — best of any horse in our top three picks. Samuel Marin gets the call, and while we have Christmas Jones third in our analysis, a 12% career win rate and the favorite-level morning line means this horse will be heavily bet. Use it in the show and underneath in exactas as a solid board horse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Fourteen runners squeeze into a 5½-furlong turf sprint, and pace could get wild early — but Let Her Pass By's TrackWiz number towers over this field and makes a compelling case for a decisive winner if the setup cooperates.

win7Let Her Pass ByML 9/2

Let Her Pass By sits at the top of our ratings at 84.9 — a sizable gap above most of this 14-horse field — and brings a 55 average speed figure to a turf sprint where speed matters. Jose E. Vargas gets the mount for trainer Richard P. Sillaman, and a 9/2 morning line on the top-rated horse in the field represents value worth pressing. An 11% career win rate tells you this isn't a machine, but TrackWiz analysis sees enough separation in the numbers to make Let Her Pass By our clear win pick.

place6Pretty ShyML 4/1

Pretty Shy draws in at 4/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 65.4 and Samuel Marin aboard for trainer Gregory D. Sacco. The 8% career win rate is modest, but in a 14-horse turf sprint, place and show percentages run significantly higher — this is the kind of horse that sneaks into the money when pace gets hot and closers come running. An average speed of 54 is right in range for this distance.

show2Miss Mo TownML 7/2

Miss Mo Town brings a 20% career win rate — among the better marks in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 63.23 with Paco Lopez up for trainer Jamie Ness. The 53 average speed figure is competitive, and having Lopez in the irons always raises a horse's ceiling in tight finishes. At 7/2, she's not long, but the career win percentage and a sharp jockey make Miss Mo Town a reasonable show inclusion and a name to use underneath in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 7

3:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An allowance mile on the turf features a morning-line overlay situation — Then What Time is listed at 6/1 but owns the top TrackWiz rating by a comfortable margin, suggesting sharp bettors may be getting a gift price on the most talented runner in the field.

win3Then What TimeML 6/1

Then What Time earns a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and an average speed of 56 — the highest speed figure among the top-rated horses in this race — yet sits at 6/1 on the morning line. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., which is a quality pairing for a mile turf allowance. A 9% career win rate may look underwhelming, but the rating and speed figure combination says this horse is operating at a higher level than results alone suggest — classic underlay territory where our analysis wants to be.

place1Gramp's LegacyML 3/1

Gramp's Legacy opens as the morning line favorite at 3/1 with a 20% career win rate — the best among our top three selections in this race. Johan Rosado gets the call for Jeremiah O'Dwyer, a trainer with a consistent presence at this meet, and a 70.72 TrackWiz rating keeps this horse firmly in the place picture. If you're constructing exactas, Gramp's Legacy on top with Then What Time running back is a logical reverse as well.

show8Empire of GloryML 7/2

Empire of Glory brings a 23% career win rate to this field — second-best in the race overall — and a TrackWiz rating of 65.22 with Jorge Ruiz up for trainer Arnaud Delacour. At 7/2 on the morning line, Empire of Glory figures to attract plenty of public support, and the career win percentage backs that confidence. This is a horse to include in the back half of your trifectas and exacta keys — a consistent performer who finds the board regularly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:07 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full 14-horse allowance field on the 5½-furlong turf gives us one of the more complex puzzles of the day — Cuda Cutie tops the ratings despite a mid-range morning line, and a stacked board beneath her means exotics could pay generously.

win12Cuda CutieML 5/1

Cuda Cutie earns an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — tied for the top mark in this race — and backs it up with a stellar 33% career win rate that stands as one of the stronger records on today's full card. Emmanuel Esquivel rides for trainer Aaron M. West, and an average speed of 56 is competitive at this sprint distance on the Colonial turf. At 5/1 on the morning line, Cuda Cutie looks like a genuine overlay given the combination of elite rating and elite career win percentage.

place1Royally BlueML 8/1

Royally Blue posts a 78.15 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 27% career win rate — the highest win percentage among our top three picks in this race — with Rajiv Maragh aboard for trainer Steve Klesaris. An average speed of 58 is the best figure among the horses our analysis highlights today, and 8/1 on the morning line makes Royally Blue a compelling value play to hit the board. This is a horse that wins at a high clip when it fires, and the price suggests the public may be underestimating it.

show5In Her GloryML 9/2

In Her Glory carries a 77.98 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Royally Blue — and a 20% career win rate with Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons for trainer Michael J. Trombetta. At 9/2, she'll attract volume, but the rating and an experienced conditioner in Trombetta make this a solid show anchor and a natural part of any trifecta structure in a wide-open 14-horse field. With a 55 average speed figure, In Her Glory has the tactical ability to position well and hit the board even if the race gets messy.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

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Bottom line: Potcake is our best bet among the free plays, Wickedwithbourbon offers the best early-card value on dirt, and the premium back half of this card — anchored by a pair of 6/1 turf route selections — has multi-race wager potential written all over it. Grab the free picks, and if you want the full eight-race breakdown with pace projections and exotic tickets, subscriber access is right here. Good luck at Colonial today.

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