Colonial Downs Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026
It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Colonial Downs — 86°F with partly cloudy skies and what shapes up to be a turf-friendly day across an eight-race card. The track has built its reputation on some of the widest, most grass-friendly courses on the East Coast, and today's card leans heavily into that identity with six of eight races run on the turf.
The footing should be in good shape under those partly cloudy skies — no rain concerns to scramble your handicapping — which means speed figures and pace projections will carry real weight today. If you like horses who can settle and come running on firm going, this is your kind of card.
We've got three free race breakdowns to get you started and five premium races behind the paywall for subscribers who want the full picture. Let's dig in.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf sprint throws a large field of first-timers at us, but the TrackWiz ratings separate three horses from the rest by a clear margin — making this more structured than the chaos of the field size suggests.
Forty Seven Smoker draws our top rating in this field at 85.62 — the highest mark in the race — and pairs that edge with a solid average speed figure of 55. Trainer Mark Shuman sends this one out at a 4/1 morning line that looks fair but not overdone for a horse with this kind of separation from the rest of the field. With jockey Jorge Ruiz in the irons, this is the horse TrackWiz analysis points to first in the win spot. In a field of maidens all starting at 0% career wins, raw ratings and speed figures are the best compass we have.
Cuddler checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 79.9 — second-best in the field — and comes in at an inviting 9/2 on the morning line with Sonny Leon aboard. The combination of a strong rating, turf sprint conditions, and Leon's tactical ability makes this a compelling place contender. While the average speed figure of 52 is a tick below the top picks, Cuddler's overall profile suggests a horse capable of hitting the board.
Runtown sits third in our ratings at 73.71 and offers some value at 6/1 on the morning line with Samuel Marin up for trainer Monica McGoey. In a race where the top three rated horses have meaningful separation over the rest of the field, Runtown rounds out a logical exacta and trifecta structure for exotic players. Don't overlook this one in the lower slots of your tickets.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
The morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse here — Wickedwithbourbon's TrackWiz number makes a compelling case to beat the odds-on chalk, setting up a potential upset angle in this 6½-furlong dirt allowance.
Wickedwithbourbon sits atop our ratings at 84.17, well clear of the field, despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a gap that could mean real value at the windows. Trainer J. Keith Desormeaux is a recognized conditioner, and Sofia Vives has the call. The 11% career win rate in an allowance field isn't flashy, but what matters most here is that this horse's TrackWiz profile outpaces even the morning line favorite Our Two Girls by a clear margin. On a 6½-furlong dirt sprint, pace will matter, and Wickedwithbourbon looks well-positioned to be a factor throughout.
Ms Sophistication brings a 20% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 71.52, landing her comfortably in the place conversation. Paco Lopez, one of the meet's sharper jockeys, gets the call for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr., and that's a pairing worth noting. At 7/2, she's not a huge price, but the combination of win percentage and strong overall rating makes her a solid place anchor.
Our Two Girls opens as the 7/5 morning line favorite and carries a 71.28 TrackWiz rating, but the fact that we have her in the show spot rather than on top tells you something — the rating separation between her and Wickedwithbourbon is real. That said, trainer Kenneth G. McPeek is always dangerous in allowance conditions, and a 14% career win rate in a small field means she'll be tough to leave off tickets entirely. She's a logical show piece and part of any competitive exacta box.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf
This 14-horse maiden claimer on the turf is a sprawling affair, but Potcake stands out like a sore thumb at the top of the ratings — the question is whether the rest of the field can put together a legitimate challenge at 5/2 odds.
Potcake dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 87.81 — the highest mark of any horse on today's entire card through the first three races — and an average speed figure of 55 backs that up. Trainer Sarah Nagle puts Jevian Toledo in the saddle, giving this runner a quality rider in a crowded field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a case where the favorite may actually be worth the short price given the rating gap between Potcake and the rest of the 14-horse field.
Fortune Hill is our runner-up pick at a TrackWiz rating of 71.69, and trainer Irvin G. Flores sends this one out at 3/1 with Jose E. Vargas up. The average speed figure of 55 matches the top horses in this field, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's reasonable value if Potcake hits trouble in traffic on the turf. Fortune Hill is a logical place horse that can anchor the bottom of your exactas.
Flying to Work is the intrigue play in the show spot at 10/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth including on tickets given the TrackWiz rating of 67.2. Paco Lopez picks up the mount for trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon, and in a full field turf sprint, traffic and positioning can shift outcomes quickly. At double-digit odds, Flying to Work makes sense as a show hedge and a trifecta fill in a race where chaos is always possible.
Our three free races span both surfaces and two different race conditions — a pair of maiden claiming sprints on the turf (Races 1 and 3) and an allowance dirt sprint in Race 2 — giving you a solid early-card foundation to build from. On the grass, Forty Seven Smoker (Race 1, morning line 4/1) and Potcake (Race 3, morning line 5/2) are our top selections, and both fit a pattern we love at Colonial: lightly raced types with upside who are getting a surface that rewards natural ability over grinding class experience. Potcake earns our highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81 and is worth anchoring your early exotics around.
Over on the dirt in Race 2, Wickedwithbourbon jumps out at 5/1 morning line in an allowance sprint going 6½ furlongs. With a firm turf likely drawing horses away from the dirt, pace dynamics in this one could set up favorably for a closer — something our TrackWiz pace projections flagged early. Value at that price is real.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Potcake is our best bet among the free plays, Wickedwithbourbon offers the best early-card value on dirt, and the premium back half of this card — anchored by a pair of 6/1 turf route selections — has multi-race wager potential written all over it. Grab the free picks, and if you want the full eight-race breakdown with pace projections and exotic tickets, subscriber access is right here. Good luck at Colonial today.