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Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 10, 2026

June 10, 20269 racesAll Churchill Downs picks

This card ran on June 10, 2026.

Best bets at Churchill Downs, June 10, 2026

Race 13RelevateML 7/512:45 PM EDT

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It's a warm Wednesday at Churchill Downs — 86 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the historic Twin Spires are hosting a nine-race card that gives you plenty to work with from first post to finale. The dirt should be playing fast in this heat, and that matters when you're trying to sort out pace scenarios up and down the card.

We've got a nice mix today: maiden events to open things up, a couple of route Claiming races, a turf sprint tucked in mid-card, and an Allowance Optional Claiming in Race 8 that looks like the marquee spot of the afternoon. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on most of these — let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer with a clear class standout at the top, but the Asmussen barn rarely sends one out unprepared — expect a honest pace with several longshot types looking to sneak into the superfecta.

win3RelevateML 7/5

Relevate is the overwhelming TrackWiz top-rated horse in the field at 89.42, nearly 13 points clear of the next contender. Trained by Steven M. Asmussen and piloted by Keith J. Asmussen, this is a family operation that knows how to aim a first-out runner at the right spot. The 7/5 morning line tells you the market agrees, and an average speed figure of 53 over 6½ furlongs on dirt is competitive in this company. In a maiden claiming field where most rivals are running on fumes or limited form, Relevate looks like the right horse at the right time.

place5KylerML 7/2

Kyler draws a big-race jock in Irad Ortiz, Jr., which is always worth noting when the horse is listed at 7/2 on the morning line. The TrackWiz rating of 76.02 places him solidly in second-tier territory, and his average speed figure of 52 is right in the mix. If Relevate hits any trouble or comes in a step short of expectations, Kyler has the tactical rider to capitalize.

show7Let 'er SizzleML 3/1

Let 'er Sizzle out of the Eddie Kenneally barn comes in at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 — respectable in this field. Kenneally is a patient horseman who tends to have his horses ready when they step into a maiden claimer, and Ben Curtis is a reliable hand for the trip. At 3/1, there's show value here if the top two are separated from the field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-time-starter-heavy Maiden Special Weight sprinting 5½ furlongs, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard the favorite giving the race a strong directional lean — but several lightly-raced types make this more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win7Bon VoyageML 6/5

Bon Voyage lands the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 59.67 and draws the most powerful jockey in the game today — Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trained by Michael J. Maker, who consistently sends first-out runners to the track ready to fire, this is a horse with serious connections pointing at a soft MSW field. The 6/5 morning line reflects real confidence from the connections, and in a race where most horses have no published speed figures, the Maker-Ortiz combo becomes an important data point in itself.

place5ClonmacnoiseML 7/2

Clonmacnoise is the second horse in this race from trainer John Ennis, and at 7/2, it's the one the market prefers over stablemate Lookin At Joel. The TrackWiz rating of 55.83 is the second-best in the field, and Danny Sheehy gets the call here. With no speed figures to lean on, the slightly higher rating and better odds suggest sharper work tab or stronger breeding for this surface and distance.

show2IcebreakML 9/2

Icebreak at 9/2 with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons is a horse worth including in your exotics. The 54.17 TrackWiz rating puts it firmly in third-best territory, and the Jose Ortiz-Timothy Hamm combination suggests a horse that's been prepared thoughtfully for this debut. In a wide-open maiden sprint with limited form to parse, getting a live Ortiz horse at 9/2 for a piece of the show pool has appeal.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The first three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and there's legitimate value in all three. Relevate in the opener is our highest-rated pick on the free card at 89.42 — that's a number that commands attention in a Maiden Claiming sprint. Moving to Race 2, Bon Voyage draws in at 6/5 morning line for a short 5½-furlong dash, and while the rating of 59.67 reflects a wide-open maiden field, there's enough here to make her the play. Warrior Richard rounds out the free card in Race 3's one-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth Claimer at 5/2 — solid value for an 87.81-rated horse who doesn't have to beat the world at this level.

On a warm, dry afternoon like this one, expect the Churchill dirt to favor horses who can get to the lead or sit just off a honest pace. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets through the early card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming route where the top TrackWiz-rated horse and the morning-line favorite are actually different horses — that kind of split is often where the real betting angles hide.

win1Warrior RichardML 5/2

Warrior Richard tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a commanding 14-point edge over the field — and posts a 17% career win rate that's solid for this class level. Trained by William D. Cowans and handled by Luan Machado, the 5/2 morning line looks like fair value given the rating advantage. An average speed figure of 54 at 1 1/16 miles on dirt gives him the numbers to win outright, and he figures to be running against a morning-line favorite in Dai Vernon (9/5) who our model rates 15 points lower.

place7Saltwater CowboyML 9/2

Saltwater Cowboy brings the second-highest TrackWiz rating (73.77) and a strong 25% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in this field. Axel Concepcion gets the mount at 9/2, which represents value if the race sets up with honest pace. If Warrior Richard takes the field on from the front, Saltwater Cowboy could be timing a late run perfectly.

show2Tres SolesML 5/1

Tres Soles at 5/1 is a sneaky show play — a 15% career win rate isn't flashy, but the 73.04 TrackWiz rating makes this horse competitive for a piece. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a consistent presence at Churchill Downs and tends to keep horses in spots they can handle. In a claiming route where the pace could get hot early, a closer like Tres Soles has a natural path to the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:13 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-time-starter MSW sprint where three horses are clustered tightly in the TrackWiz ratings — this race could go several ways, and the morning line splits the top contenders almost evenly.

win2Banana FrostML 2/1

Banana Frost earns the top TrackWiz rating in Race 4 at 58.33 and draws Jose L. Ortiz, one of the best in the business. Trainer Brian A. Lynch has a reputation for placing debut runners in spots where they can fire early, and the 2/1 morning line reflects genuine stable confidence. With no published speed figure — common for a first-out — the rating and connections become the primary handicapping tools, and both point in the same direction.

place6VoyagerML 5/2

Voyager is a fascinating place play at 5/2 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons for trainer Mark E. Casse. The 57.5 TrackWiz rating is just a tick behind Banana Frost, and when you add the Ortiz factor, the gap might not exist at all on race day. Casse is a Hall of Fame trainer who wins at a high clip in MSW company, and having the best jockey available always keeps a horse dangerous.

show3Violent GalML 4/1

Violent Gal at 4/1 with Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. aboard for Ian R. Wilkes has the profile of a horse that can outrun her odds. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and Wilkes is a Churchill Downs stalwart who routinely has his horses sharp. In a sprint where pedigree and preparation matter as much as anything, a third from this barn with a top local jock is worth including in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where Lil Tipsy has a significant TrackWiz rating gap over the field and brings the best raw speed figure — this one sets up as a potential single for multi-race bets.

win4Lil TipsyML 9/5

Lil Tipsy is the clear TrackWiz top selection at 76.18 — more than 18 points clear of the next-best horse — and her average speed figure of 55 leads the entire field. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount at 9/5 for trainer Linda Rice, a combination that doesn't show up in soft spots. In a maiden claiming sprint where most rivals are posting figures in the 54 range or lower, Lil Tipsy's edge in both the model and the raw speed numbers makes her a strong win play.

place2Shot At PerfectionML 4/1

Shot At Perfection at 4/1 is the most compelling horse to run second in this race. The 57.99 TrackWiz rating is second-best, and her average speed of 54 matches the bulk of the field. Trainer Ian R. Wilkes gets Julien R. Leparoux in the saddle, a veteran who knows how to place a horse in a maiden claimer and rate them into contention. If Lil Tipsy is all she's supposed to be, Shot At Perfection figures to fight for the runner-up spot.

show5SolaiaML 5/2

Solaia at 5/2 rounds out a sensible exacta/trifecta key with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure that keeps pace with the top contenders. Francisco Arrieta takes the mount for trainer Rob Atras, and the 5/2 morning line suggests this filly won't be a big overlay, but she's consistent enough to fill out exotics. Her profile as a stalker type could benefit if the pace gets hot up front.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The full field of 15 on the Churchill turf makes this one a genuine puzzle — but one horse absolutely dominates the TrackWiz ratings and brings a career win percentage that towers over the rest of this claiming field.

win14RigelML 3/1

Rigel is our top selection in Race 6 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a massive 18-point lead over the second-best horse in the field. What really stands out is the 34% career win rate, the highest among horses with meaningful sample sizes in this race. Ben Curtis gets the call at a juicy 3/1 morning line considering the edge our model sees, and an average speed figure of 54 on turf at 1 1/16 miles fits the assignment. In a field this large, having the top-rated horse at a price is exactly what you want.

place9Demolition DukeML 7/2

Demolition Duke is our place selection at 7/2, and the 69.18 TrackWiz rating combined with a best-in-field average speed figure of 55 makes this a horse that can run with anybody in this field. Jose L. Ortiz aboard for Brendan P. Walsh is a premier pairing on the turf, and Walsh's horses tend to show up ready when they're pointed at these grass routes. The 10% career win rate is modest, but the speed figure suggests he's been competitive — just needs the trip.

show13PresiderML 9/5

Presider at 9/5 is the morning-line favorite, and while Rigel outrates him significantly in our model, the Irad Ortiz-Joe Sharp combination is never to be dismissed. The 61.6 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed figure are legitimate, and Sharp's turf record at Churchill is worth respecting. If the race sets up in a way that suits a pressing style, Presider has the tools to at least hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance at six furlongs where the top TrackWiz-rated horse and the morning-line favorite are on opposite ends of the program — that divergence often creates the best wagering opportunities on the card.

win3Capital ConnectionML 5/2

Capital Connection tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — tied for the highest mark of any horse today — and brings an 18% career win rate that's perfectly respectable for a starter allowance field. Francisco Arrieta gets the mount for Carlos Santamaria, and the 5/2 morning line is fair value given how far ahead our model has this horse. An average speed figure of 55 is one of the better marks in this field, and six furlongs on the Churchill dirt is a distance where sharp horses show their class early.

place8Cool CowboyML 8/1

Cool Cowboy at 8/1 is our place pick and the most compelling value play in Race 7. The 69.27 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and his 20% career win rate is one of the stronger marks among the starters. Trainer Mark Simms, Jr. with Abel Cedillo in the irons is a connection that can sneak up on a field at a price, and 8/1 is a number worth attacking in exactas and trifectas.

show7Send CashML 9/2

Send Cash brings the best average speed figure in the race at 57 — a genuinely notable edge over a field where most horses are clustered at 54-55. Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. takes the mount for David Fawkes, and the 9/2 morning line reflects a horse that the market respects. The 18% career win rate is solid, and if the pace scenario plays into a closer's hands, Send Cash has the pure speed figures to close the gap.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile at Churchill where Brad Cox sends out the clear TrackWiz top-rated horse at a relatively friendly 2/1 — the real question is whether the secondary runners can keep it honest.

win5RothkoML 2/1

Rothko is our strongest win selection in Race 8, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of 88.54 in a competitive allowance field. The 40% career win rate is exceptional — more than double the rate of most horses in this race — and trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the best in the business at placing horses at exactly the right level. Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons at 2/1 is a formidable combination, and an average speed figure of 54 at a one-mile trip on dirt fits the profile of a horse who can rate and come home strong.

place1CalderaML 8/1

Caldera at 8/1 is a genuine value play in the place pool. The 67.79 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and the 28% career win rate is among the highest here, beaten only by Rothko's remarkable mark. Trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. knows how to have a horse ready in an allowance spot, and Micah J. Husbands provides good local knowledge around the Churchill oval. At 8/1, Caldera offers real upside in exactas underneath Rothko.

show7Crushed ItML 9/2

Crushed It at 9/2 brings a 66.9 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate — both numbers that make this a legitimate show contender and more. Jose L. Ortiz rides for Michael J. Maker, a barn that consistently shows up ready in allowance company. The 53 average speed figure is in the mix, and if the pace develops with a fast early fraction, the Ortiz-Maker combo has the experience to time a run perfectly for a piece of the pie.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

4:55 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight on the Churchill turf is as wide open as it gets — but one horse jumps off the page in the TrackWiz ratings while the morning-line favorite carries big stable power.

win15Toast the StarML 9/2

Toast the Star is a genuine overlay at 9/2 with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9 — more than 26 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer John A. Hancock sends this filly out with Edgar Morales, and the 56 average speed figure on turf is among the best in a field where half the entrants have no published speed numbers. In a wide field of maidens on grass, having a horse with both the top model rating and legitimate speed figures is exactly the kind of edge worth betting into.

place7Lady JancisML 9/5

Lady Jancis is the 9/5 morning-line favorite for Steven M. Asmussen and Irad Ortiz, Jr. — a combination that wins at a high clip across every circuit they visit. The 58.67 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, and an average speed figure of 57 is the co-best mark on the card. Asmussen is meticulous about turf sprint placements, and Ortiz will have this filly in perfect position from the gate. She's a strong contender even if our model rates her second.

show8Mundy SweepML 7/2

Mundy Sweep at 7/2 with Corey J. Lanerie for trainer Dale L. Romans is a Churchill insider play if there ever was one. Romans and Lanerie are deeply familiar with this oval, and the 55.83 TrackWiz rating combined with a 56 average speed figure keeps this filly squarely in contention. In a field this large on turf, a horse with real speed figures and a savvy local trainer has a clear edge over the many first-timers with no data to evaluate.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

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Bottom line for today at Churchill: Relevate and Warrior Richard are the strongest free-card plays, and Rothko looks like the headliner of the premium card in Race 8. It's a fun nine-race Wednesday with real betting opportunities top to bottom. Full card breakdowns, pace projections, and exotic tickets are all waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before first post.

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