Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 4, 2026

Thursday, June 4, 20268 racesChurchill Downs

It's a beautiful Thursday at Churchill Downs — clear skies, 84 degrees, and the kind of firm turf that rewards speed and class. Eight races are on the menu today, mixing claiming routes, maiden sprints, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming turf routes that should draw sharp money once the pools open.

The dirt looks fast, the turf should be playing right, and there's a nice mix of sprints and routes to keep things interesting from first post to last. Whether you're playing a single race or building exotics across the card, there's plenty to dig into here.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — Editor's superior speed figure and win percentage make this a potential odds overlay hiding in plain sight.

win5EditorML 7/2

Editor stands out from the field with both the highest TrackWiz rating (86.35) and the best average speed figure (56) in the race — a full two ticks above the rest of the field, which is meaningful at six furlongs. What really separates him is his 25% career win rate, best in the field by a wide margin, suggesting this horse knows how to finish the job. Francisco Arrieta gets the call, and at 7/2 on the morning line while going off as the top-rated horse, there's real value here if the tote board stays honest. In a claiming sprint with a clear edge in both class and speed, Editor looks like the most complete contender.

place1Imperial RulerML 7/5

Imperial Ruler draws the rail and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 7/5, backed by an 82.75 TrackWiz rating that's second only to Editor. The six-furlong dirt sprint suits a horse that figures to be forwardly placed from post one, and Edgar Morales is a capable handler in these conditions. If Editor fires his best, Imperial Ruler is the most likely horse to chase him down for second.

show2HarbeML 5/2

Harbe at 5/2 carries a 73.65 rating and a 12% career win rate, modest but enough to warrant exotics consideration in a five-horse field. Ben Curtis is a solid hand, and Harbe's inclusion in the show slot gives your trifecta key a legitimate third option without stretching too far on price.

Race 2

9:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint packed with first-time starters and low-experience runners — form is thin across the board, making TrackWiz ratings and morning-line positioning the clearest guides to sorting it out.

win5D BigalowML 3/1

D Bigalow posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 77.51 and comes in at a fair 3/1 morning line, making him the most attractive win option in what is otherwise a murky bunch. Mario Gutierrez has solid experience navigating maiden fields, and D Bigalow's average speed figure of 54 is respectable for this level. With zero career wins across the field, this race is wide open, but D Bigalow's rating gap over the competition is significant enough to trust as the top pick.

place4MouqeerML 7/2

Mouqeer brings a 69.12 TrackWiz rating and the notable connection of trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Keith J. Asmussen — a family tandem that often suggests a horse the barn believes in. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and in a maiden race where few horses have established speed figures, the Asmussen stable's first-out reputation is worth respecting for place honors.

show3Fuzzy StareML 6/5

Fuzzy Stare is the public's choice at 6/5 on the morning line and posts a 59.67 rating with an average speed figure of 56 — the best in the field among horses with a recorded number. Trained by Wesley A. Ward, who is known for having juveniles ready early, Fuzzy Stare's support in the wagering makes the show spot a logical hedge, even if our top rating belongs elsewhere.

Race 3

9:58 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 14-horse maiden special weight on the Churchill turf is a giant puzzle, but two horses separate themselves clearly on TrackWiz ratings while the rest of the field clusters tightly — a potential top-two race hiding inside the chaos.

win8Lots of KissesML 9/5

Lots of Kisses is the standout in this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by more than six points — and backs it up with the best average speed figure in the field at 57. Luis Saez is one of the top pilots in the country, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence. On a 5.5-furlong turf sprint where early pace and tactical position matter, Saez is exactly the kind of rider you want aboard.

place14Bourbon Milk PunchML 3/1

Bourbon Milk Punch is the standout value angle in this race, carrying an 82.73 TrackWiz rating at a generous 3/1 morning line. Trainer Horacio De Paz sends this horse out with legitimate credentials, and the average speed figure of 54 holds up fine on turf at this distance. If Lots of Kisses faces any trouble in a busy gate, Bourbon Milk Punch is well-positioned to capitalize for a place check.

show10Dream On CurlinML 4/1

Dream On Curlin draws Joel Rosario, one of the elite turf riders in North America, and that alone gives this 4/1 morning-line runner serious consideration in the show spot. The 55.00 TrackWiz rating sits comfortably ahead of the rest of the chasing pack, and trainer Philip D'Amato ships in from the West Coast — a move that typically signals confidence in the horse's readiness.

Our free coverage today spans the first three races — and it's a solid sampler of what this card has to offer. On the dirt, Editor (R1, 7/2 morning line, 86.35 TrackWiz rating) stands out as one of our stronger plays of the afternoon in a six-furlong claiming sprint. Then D Bigalow (R2, 3/1) takes a shot in a maiden claiming dash, where pace scenario and early position will likely decide things in a short field over 5½ furlongs.

The headliner of the free card is Race 3 — a Maiden Special Weight turf sprint where Lots of Kisses (9/5, 88.83 rating) comes in as our top-rated horse of the entire afternoon. On a firm turf course under clear skies, she looks like the horse to beat. All three free races are worth your attention, but Race 3 is the one we're circling first.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't match the top TrackWiz rating here, and a double-digit longshot with a 69-point rating lurking at 15/1 makes this a claiming route with genuine value potential underneath.

win2Betty's DanceML 6/5

Betty's Dance tops the TrackWiz ratings at 71.95 and draws Luis Saez, who has been one of the busiest and most effective riders at Churchill all meet. Trained by Joe Sharp, who has a knack for placing claimers in winnable spots, Betty's Dance at 6/5 is the morning-line favorite and the most credentialed runner in the field on our numbers. The 10% career win rate is modest, but the class-adjusted rating and connections tell the real story.

place6ListentourmotherML 15/1

Listentourmother is the value bomb of this race at 15/1 on the morning line, posting a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to Betty's Dance — and Francisco Arrieta is a competent rider who won't give away ground. In a six-furlong claiming race with an even pace scenario, a closer with this kind of underlying rating can absolutely sneak into the exacta. This is the kind of number mismatch that TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

show4Split SuccessML 7/2

Split Success at 7/2 is a logical show pick with a 20% career win rate — tied for best in the field — and an average speed figure of 55 that matches Fun On the Bayou as the fastest on paper. Trainer William D. Cowans keeps this one competitive, and Luan Machado is a live rider. In a race where the top two are tightly bunched by rating, Split Success rounds out the trifecta nicely.

Race 5

10:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden special weight on the Churchill dirt strip where a lightly-raced standout tops the ratings by a wide margin — but three debut runners from major barns keep the pace scenario and final fractions unpredictable.

win2Super SaiyajinML 5/1

Super Saiyajin has a 84.17 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the rest of this maiden field — the next-closest horse is more than 28 points back — and an average speed figure of 54 to back it up. Trainer Sergio Donjuan sends this one out with Gerardo Corrales up, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's outstanding overlay potential if the public doesn't catch on. In maiden sprints, a rating gap this wide is rare and should be taken seriously.

place10Quick SillaML 3/1

Quick Silla comes out of Brad H. Cox's barn, one of the most respected training operations in the country, and arrives at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 rating. Cox has a strong record with first-out and lightly-raced maidens at Churchill, and while no speed figure is available, the trainer angle alone warrants place consideration. Luan Machado gets the mount, which is a confidence signal from the Cox barn.

show9Sky WarriorML 4/1

Sky Warrior is trained by Mark E. Casse and goes at 4/1 with a 55.00 TrackWiz rating that ties him with the next tier of contenders. Axel Concepcion has been active at the meet, and Casse's operation consistently produces ready runners. As a hedge in the show spot for trifecta construction, Sky Warrior at morning-line odds gives you solid coverage at a manageable price.

Race 6

11:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A deep 14-horse turf allowance where the morning-line favorite (Raiding Party, 7/5) is outrated by both our win and place picks — this is a race where the numbers strongly suggest the board will create value at the top.

win11HonfleurML 3/1

Honfleur earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and comes in at a fair 3/1 morning line despite being trained by Chad C. Brown, arguably the best turf trainer in North America. Joel Rosario is aboard — a combination that regularly delivers on turf routes — and Honfleur's 20% career win rate is respectable in a competitive allowance field. In a one-mile turf race where pace will be honest, Brown/Rosario horses tend to hit the board at a very high clip.

place5DagmaraML 4/1

Dagmara is a Brad H. Cox trainee at 4/1 with a 72.12 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — solid credentials for this level. Cox is one of the top trainers at Churchill and excels with turf routes at a mile, and Luan Machado gets a good position from post 5 to settle into a pace that should set up for closers. This is a legitimate exacta threat at a price that offers real value.

show2Call the BullpenML 6/1

Call the Bullpen carries a 66.64 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — both above average for this field — and trainer Carlos A. David is no stranger to placing horses in competitive turf spots. Samy Camacho has been effective as a jockey who finds position without overcommitting early. At 6/1, this horse rounds out an exotic ticket well as a show option in a wide-open allowance.

Race 7

11:54 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile maiden claiming route on the dirt where a horse with a standout 82-point rating is somehow going off at 6/1 — in a field where no one has won a race, that kind of rating separation is a serious edge.

win6DiscothequeML 6/1

Discotheque leads this 13-horse maiden field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — more than 23 points clear of the next horse — and an average speed figure of 54 that's among the best in the field. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey puts Francisco Arrieta up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay value here if the pace sets up fairly. In maiden claiming routes, a rating gap this pronounced is about as close to a go signal as you'll find.

place8Up CountryML 7/2

Up Country draws Luis Saez from the Brendan P. Walsh barn — a trainer who consistently competes at Churchill and typically sends horses to the post fit and ready. The 59.57 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and at 7/2 morning line, this is a well-supported contender. Walsh horses ridden by top jockeys in maiden routes tend to hit the board at a solid clip, making the place spot a comfortable landing.

show1SpellmakerML 5/1

Spellmaker opens at 5/1 with a 57.92 TrackWiz rating and a speed figure of 53 — modest but consistent enough for show consideration in a maiden field where many rivals show zeros. Trainer Heather Irion also saddles Grind in this race, and when a barn doubles up in a maiden, it often signals genuine confidence in at least one of the runners. Spellmaker's rating gives him the edge as the more likely show horse of the two Irion entries.

Race 8

12:23 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The turf allowance nightcap features a top-rated horse at 6/1 that outscores both the morning-line favorite and the second choice by a significant margin — sharp bettors will be circling this one for value all card.

win7EsmarkML 6/1

Esmark tops the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — both the highest marks in the field — and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line despite that clear advantage. Luis Saez takes the mount for trainer Victoria H. Oliver, and an average speed figure of 55 on turf at a mile and a sixteenth shows this horse has the class and stamina to handle the distance. When the top-rated horse in an allowance field is this far off the morning-line chalk's odds, that's where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

place8SpoilerML 7/2

Spoiler brings a 74.15 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate into this spot, making him the second-most accomplished runner in the field. Joel Rosario is aboard for Michael J. Maker, and the 7/2 morning line reflects healthy wagering support. In a turf route where pace can get complicated with a full field, a Rosario-piloted closer with a strong win percentage is precisely the type you want covering the place slot.

show9Westside TideML 4/1

Westside Tide at 4/1 earns a 68.85 TrackWiz rating with the best average speed figure in the field at 56, giving this Rafael Bejarano mount a legitimate case for hitting the board. Trainer David Jacobson is patient with turf horses, and an 18% career win rate suggests Westside Tide can compete without needing everything to go perfectly. As the third piece of a trifecta key, the combination of raw speed figure and fair morning-line price makes this horse a logical inclusion.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Churchill Downs is putting on a clean, well-structured card today under ideal conditions. Lots of Kisses is our marquee free play, Editor is a strong dirt value, and the premium races have real angles worth chasing. Full-card analysis, exotic tickets, and pace projections are all waiting for subscribers — don't leave money on the table.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3