Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026

Sunday, May 31, 202610 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs rolls out a full 10-race Sunday card on May 31st, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for this time of year. Overcast skies and a comfortable 76°F mean the track should stay consistent from first post to last — no heat-baked surface, no weather surprises to scramble your tickets.

The card is a nice mix of claiming races, allowance company, and a pair of maiden events, capped off with some turf action in Races 7 and 10. Whether you're here to grind the whole card or just fire a few smart singles, there's plenty to work with today.

TrackWiz analysis has identified standouts across all 10 races. Three races are fully free for every reader — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with complete premium breakdowns on Races 4 through 10 available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite looks vulnerable in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, with our top-rated horse going postward at a juicy price — setting up a potential upset in the opener.

win5Gallo de FuegoML 9/2

Gallo de Fuego carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.9, a clear edge over the competition in Race 1. Trainer Joe Blair Roberts sends him out with a 15% career win rate, and the 9/2 morning line undervalues what the numbers say. With an average speed figure of 54 that matches the pace of this field, he should be comfortable in the 6-furlong trip and figures to be running at the right time when it matters.

place1MoroderML 4/1

Moroder is the standout value horse in the place slot — his 28% career win percentage is the best in the field and speaks to a horse who knows how to finish the job. Irad Ortiz Jr. climbs aboard, which is never a bad sign, and his TrackWiz rating of 77.59 puts him solidly in the mix. At 4/1 on the morning line, he's worth including underneath in all your exotics.

show4Shadow CoastML 5/2

Shadow Coast draws the co-favorite billing at 5/2 with Luis Saez up, but our analysis has him third-best in this spot behind two higher-rated rivals. His rating of 72.47 is respectable and the speed figures are in line with the field, making him a solid show bet and a useful part of any tri combination — just don't trust him to beat the top two.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top horse by the numbers dominates this mile dirt claimer, though a well-bred closer threatens to make life interesting in the final furlong.

win3Don't Be SaltyML 3/1

Don't Be Salty posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 87.08, and Irad Ortiz Jr. — one of the best riders in the country — takes the mount, which is a huge confidence booster. His 20% career win rate is solid in a claiming context, and trainer Joe Sharp has a knack for getting horses fit and ready to fire. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate best bet in the second race.

place6Belle Ofthe DanceML 4/1

Belle Ofthe Dance lands in the place slot with Jose L. Ortiz doing the steering — a quality jockey who can dictate terms on a horse rated 70.44. Trainer Horacio De Paz has her at 4/1, representing fair market value, and her 16% career win rate is respectable for the claiming ranks. She projects as a tough out for the exacta and worth keying in your 1-2 combinations.

show4FermiML 9/2

Fermi posts the field's top average speed figure at 55, which stands out in a group where most are clustered around 52-54. Trainer J. Kent Sweezey's runner carries a 66.44 rating and ships in at 9/2 — if the pace collapses up front, this closer could be flying late and hitting the board at a price.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Fast Joker towers over this mile dirt claimer on raw ratings, but the 9/5 morning-line favorite Il Cavallino brings the highest average speed and could make this a genuine battle up front.

win2Fast JokerML 7/2

Fast Joker's TrackWiz rating of 86.35 is the best in the field by a comfortable margin, making him our top selection despite being listed at 7/2 on the morning line — that's a fair price for a horse with this kind of edge. Edgar Morales takes the mount for trainer Chris A. Hartman, and while a 7% career win rate is modest, the rating differential here suggests the horse is simply better than his past results have shown. In a wide-open claiming mile, a horse this well-rated at a double-digit underlay to the favorite is exactly the kind of play we look for.

place6Il CavallinoML 9/5

Il Cavallino figures to be the pressure horse in this spot — he shows the field's top average speed figure at 54 and comes in as the 9/5 morning-line choice. Gabriel Saez rides for trainer J. Kent Sweezey, and his 68.16 rating makes him the second-best horse in the field by our numbers. He should sit close to the pace and be hard to shake in the stretch.

show3Stefan's TitleML 4/1

Stefan's Title brings the best career win percentage of any horse in this race at 25%, a stat that suggests he's a horse who puts himself in position to win. Jose L. Ortiz in the irons for trainer Helen Pitts adds a professional edge, and at 4/1 he's a reasonable show play for conservative bettors looking to round out a trifecta.

Our three free best bets today are anchored in the early dirt sprint and route action. Gallo de Fuego opens the card at 9/2 morning line in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — a pace setup that suits a horse with his profile on a neutral, consistent surface. Then the card shifts to routes: Don't Be Salty (3/1) and Fast Joker (7/2) both go a mile on dirt in Races 2 and 3, and the steady temperature and cloud cover should keep the footing fair throughout, without the kind of speed-favoring kickback you sometimes see on a hot Churchill afternoon.

These three races give you a solid early foundation — a sprint angle and two route plays — and they connect thematically around the idea of class and consistency on a honest, middle-of-the-road dirt track. No dramatic bias to fight here, just find the right horse and let the race come to you.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong dirt claimer features a pair of highly rated horses battling it out at the top of the odds board, with a well-connected longshot lurking underneath.

win4Upturned BrimML 9/2

Upturned Brim leads our board for Race 4 with a 84.9 TrackWiz rating — the field's best — and he's going out at 9/2, which is well above what the numbers suggest should be his fair price. Trainer Williams Cano sends him out with Axel Concepcion up, and his average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the race. In a 6-furlong sprint where speed and rating align, this is exactly the kind of overlay we circle.

place2Lord MajestyML 5/2

Lord Majesty brings both a 81.24 rating and a 26% career win percentage — the latter suggesting he's a consistent performer who gets up to win his share. Trainer Carlos A. David puts Amir Mendoza up, and at 5/2 on the morning line he'll attract public money. The case for him in the place spot is straightforward: even if Upturned Brim fires on all cylinders, Lord Majesty has the class and consistency to be right there at the wire.

show8Top Gun TommyML 4/1

Top Gun Tommy shows the field's top average speed figure at 56 alongside a 27% career win rate that speaks to a genuine competitor. Trainer Aaron Shorter sends him out with Cristian A. Torres in the saddle, and at 4/1 he represents good value to hit the board. He's the kind of horse who can be forwardly placed and tough to pass in the stretch.

Race 5

6:46 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Wide open Starter Allowance going a mile on dirt — the morning-line favorite is outrated by three horses in the field, setting the table for a potential upset.

win6VersedML 12/1

Versed is our top play at 12/1, making this a genuine longshot call — but the numbers back it up. His TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is the best in the field, and a 20% career win percentage shows he can finish the job. Trainer Claude L. Brownfield III sends him out with Edgar Morales, and at double-digit odds in a race where the favorite is clearly overbet, Versed is the kind of value play that defines smart handicapping.

place2You Ain't PoppnML 6/1

You Ain't Poppn is rated right behind Versed at 72.63 and matches him with a 20% career win rate — this pair are essentially a coin flip by the numbers. Trainer Ismael Bahena's runner gets Jaime A. Torres aboard and is listed at 6/1, which is a fair price for a horse this competitive. He's a natural place play and a key part of any exacta construction here.

show4GuardianML 5/2

Guardian checks in at 71.02 — the third-best rating in the field — and is trained by David Jacobson, who also sends out the morning-line favorite Admiral Hall. At 5/2 on the line, Guardian is the public's second choice but our analysis has him third-best behind two underappreciated rivals. He's worth including in show bets and trifecta boxes as a reliable board horse.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers going a mile on dirt, with no career winners in the group — these are horses still looking for their first, and the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier worth targeting.

win11WhateverML 5/1

Whatever tops our maiden claiming board at a 81.52 rating and heads to post at 5/1 — a fair price for a horse this highly rated. Victor R. Carrasco rides for trainer Paul J. McGee, and while all horses in this field are still seeking their first win, the rating separation between Whatever and the rest of the field is meaningful. In maiden claiming races, getting behind the best-rated horse at a double-digit underlay price is a sound strategy.

place10TimsML 6/1

Tims rates second in the field at 74.11 and goes postward at 6/1, representing solid each-way value in a wide-open maiden. Emmanuel Esquivel gets the call for trainer Carlos Santamaria, and the horse's average speed figure of 53 is in line with the top of this group. He's the natural place key and worth using underneath Whatever in the exacta.

show9Vino DominusML 9/2

Vino Dominus slots in third on our board at 59.09 and is listed at 9/2 — he'll carry public money as one of the shorter-priced runners. Cristian A. Torres handles the riding duties for trainer Thomas Drury Jr., and his average speed of 53 keeps him competitive with the top two. In a race this unpredictable, having him in your trifecta is prudent.

Race 7

7:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The turf sprint sets up as a two-horse race between the top-rated Sapphire Beach and the public favorite Beach Heist, with a pair of closers lurking that could complicate the exacta.

win6Sapphire BeachML 5/2

Sapphire Beach is the class of this allowance turf field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the best in the race — and Jose L. Ortiz in the saddle ensures she'll be in the right position at the right time. Trainer George R. Arnold II's runner carries a 33% career win percentage, which is excellent, and her average speed figure of 58 is the highest in the field. At 5/2, she's fairly priced but still represents the best value among the contenders.

place7Mony MonyML 4/1

Mony Mony is quietly dangerous in this spot — a 42% career win percentage is the second-best in the field among horses with multiple starts, and Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount for trainer Joe Sharp, a dangerous combination at any price. His 65.51 rating isn't flashy, but the win percentage suggests a horse who consistently runs well enough to hit the board. At 4/1, he's a solid place play and a natural part of the exacta key.

show1Beach HeistML 2/1

Beach Heist is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with Flavien Prat aboard, and while our rating of 58.33 has her third in the field, that 50% career win percentage is the best in the race and demands respect. Trainer William Walden clearly has this horse cranked up, and she'll likely be on or near the lead — if the turf sets up fast, she could turn the tables on our top two picks.

Race 8

8:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden special weight field at 6.5 furlongs on dirt — most of these runners have little or no speed figure history, making this a ratings and connections game.

win11CampobassoML 4/1

Campobasso tops our picks at 4/1 with Flavien Prat in the irons for trainer Bob Baffert — a combination that commands attention in any maiden field. His 55.0 TrackWiz rating leads our top three picks, and Baffert's record with first-time and lightly raced maidens at Churchill Downs is well-established. Prat is one of the sharpest tactical riders in the game, and getting him on a Baffert maiden at a reasonable price is something you don't pass up.

place10StudyML 5/1

Study is our place pick at 5/1 with a 53.33 rating and Ben Curtis up for trainer Michael W. McCarthy. McCarthy is a patient conditioner who often has his horses ready to fire first or second out, and the 5/1 price is fair for a maiden with the tools to compete. With no available speed figure to go on, the trainer angle and rating carry the argument here.

show4Hawkeye StateML 6/1

Hawkeye State is one of the few horses in this maiden field to show an actual average speed figure — a 56, which is the best among our top three picks. Rafael Bejarano rides for trainer Tristan Ashford, and at 6/1 he's a legitimate show play with the kind of raw early speed that can be dangerous in a 6.5-furlong sprint. In a field this uncertain, having a horse with proven speed figures in your show spot is a comfort.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full 13-horse Allowance Optional Claiming field going a mile on dirt — the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story than the morning line, creating a prime overlay opportunity mid-card.

win8Noble AffairML 10/1

Noble Affair is our standout play in Race 9, carrying a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that leads the field while going postward at 10/1 — that's a significant overlay. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen sends him out with Florent Geroux, a reliable combination at Churchill Downs, and his average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the race. When the top-rated horse in an allowance field is double-digits on the morning line, that's exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is built to uncover.

place11Prize PickML 6/1

Prize Pick rates second on our board at 63.67 with Luis Saez taking the mount for trainer Brian A. Lynch. A 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 place him solidly in the mix, and at 6/1 he offers genuine each-way value. He's a natural underneath Noble Affair in the exacta and worth using widely in trifectas.

show4Rebel InstinctML 3/1

Rebel Instinct draws the morning-line third choice at 3/1 with Irad Ortiz Jr. up for Brad H. Cox — one of the best trainer-jockey combinations in the country. His 56.67 rating and 50% career win percentage make him a serious contender, even if our analysis has him slightly behind the top two. Cox horses are almost always fit and ready, and Ortiz will ensure he's in a good spot throughout.

Race 10

9:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The turf mile maiden claiming closer closes the card, and there's a heavy favorite situation developing — with a legitimate overlay lurking at double-digit odds.

win11Happy PrinceML 5/2

Happy Prince is the clear top selection with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the best in this turf maiden field by a wide margin. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Mark E. Casse, who has a strong track record getting maidens ready for the grass, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the public's respect for this combination. While he's still looking for his maiden win, the rating and connections make him the most trustworthy option in the field.

place2Both Sides of BadML 4/1

Both Sides of Bad rates a solid 78.42 — second in the field — and Jaime A. Torres rides for trainer Helen Pitts at 4/1. His average speed figure of 54 is among the better marks on the turf today, and at 4/1 he offers real value to hit the board. He's the natural place key and an important part of any exacta built around Happy Prince.

show4Culture WarML 12/1

Culture War is the show play at 12/1 — a price that looks well above his merit based on a 63.6 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field. Trainer Robert Medina sends him out with Junior Alvarado up, and his average speed figure of 53 is competitive with the rest of the group. At double-digit odds in a turf maiden where prices can get inflated, Culture War is a sneaky trifecta inclusion that could pay handsomely.

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A clean, comfortable day at Churchill sets the table for good racing. Lean on Gallo de Fuego, Don't Be Salty, and Fast Joker as your free best bets to start the afternoon, and if you want the full 10-race breakdown — pace projections, longshot angles, and exotic strategies included — it's all waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz premium and make every race count today. Good luck at the windows.

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