Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — May 29, 2026

Friday, May 29, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

Happy Friday from Churchill Downs, where nine races are locked and loaded under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 77°F. The footing should be in great shape across both the main track and the turf course today — no weather excuses for any of these horses.

It's a well-rounded card mixing maiden specials, allowance company, and claiming races across dirt and turf, with distances ranging from a quick 5½ furlongs up to 1⅛ miles. Whether you're hunting a singles play or trying to build a multi-race ticket, there's something to work with in every corner of this card.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all nine races. Three races are open to everyone — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the remaining six are available to premium subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight three-horse battle at the top of the TrackWiz ratings separates this allowance sprint from the rest of the field — True Passion, Outrageously, and Briland are clustered closely and figure to decide this 6.5-furlong dirt race among themselves.

win1True PassionML 2/1

True Passion tops our ratings at 88.54 and draws the rail in post 1 with Corey Lanerie in the irons — a pilot who knows this track inside out. The morning line of 2/1 reflects the public's respect, and a 25% career win rate is solid for this level. With an average speed figure of 56 — the best in the field — True Passion has the raw ability to dictate terms here and should be tough to run down.

place3OutrageouslyML 9/2

Outrageously offers a bit of value at 9/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 83.17 and a career win rate of 35% — the highest in this field. Edgar Morales climbs aboard for trainer Jordan Blair, and that win percentage suggests this horse fires consistently when conditions are right. Don't overlook Outrageously in the exacta underneath.

show7BrilandML 5/2

Briland rounds out our top three at a TrackWiz rating of 80.46, and the Brendan Walsh/Tyler Gaffalione combination is one of the sharper trainer-jockey pairings on the Churchill grounds. At 5/2, Briland is hardly a throwout price, and a 33% career win rate means this horse competes — making it a reliable exotics anchor for trifecta coverage.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Brad Cox's first-timer Tap to Open draws heavy chalk support in this maiden special weight route, but an unusually deep second tier — including two horses rated in the 60s and 80s by TrackWiz — gives this mile-and-an-eighth maiden event some genuine intrigue.

win1Tap to OpenML 6/5

Tap to Open is an overwhelming morning line favorite at 6/5, and our analysis backs the public's enthusiasm with a race-best TrackWiz rating of 86.28. Trainer Brad Cox consistently ranks among the elite conditioners in the country when it comes to debuting well-bred maidens, and Flavien Prat — one of the top riders in North America — takes the mount. This first-out runner projects as the class of the field and should control the pace scenario going 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

place7Lady LawML 6/1

Lady Law at 6/1 is the most intriguing second choice in this race, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 that trails only the favorite. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun has a strong record with maiden runners, and Axel Concepcion gets the call from post 7 — a workable gate in a route race. If Tap to Open hits any trouble or flattens out late, Lady Law looks best positioned to swoop in.

show3Ati GirlML 4/1

Ati Girl draws the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. — arguably the best rider in the country — and trainer William Mott is a Hall of Famer who rarely runs maidens without serious intent. A TrackWiz rating of 63.34 puts her third in the field, and the 4/1 morning line suggests the market agrees she belongs. She's a logical show anchor and worth including in exacta boxes if you're willing to play against the chalk.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses — Abbi Fede and Mount Horeb — have pulled clear of the field in our ratings on this turf claiming mile-and-a-sixteenth, but the 5/2 and 7/2 morning lines suggest a competitive duel is brewing between a pair of sharp barns.

win3Abbi FedeML 5/2

Abbi Fede tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle for trainer Joe Sharp — a combination that demands respect on any surface. While the career win rate of 8% looks modest at first glance, this is turf claiming company and consistency at this level can be cyclical. The 5/2 morning line is fair, and Abbi Fede's profile screams live horse today.

place1Mount HorebML 7/2

Mount Horeb is the other half of what shapes up as a two-horse top of the market, rated 86.11 by TrackWiz with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Brendan Walsh — one of the premier turf trainers operating at Churchill. At 7/2, there's legitimate value if you play Abbi Fede on top and use Mount Horeb underneath, as Walsh rarely sends a horse to the post without it being pointed correctly.

show9SketchML 4/1

Sketch is the most interesting third choice in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 77.68 and the highest average speed figure in the field at 57. Post 9 with Danny Sheehy riding for Conor Murphy is a quieter barn angle, which may be why the morning line sits at 4/1. That speed edge is real, and if the pace collapses late, Sketch has the figure to be running over the top of tiring horses.

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid cross-section of what Churchill is serving up. Race 1 is an allowance sprint at 6½ furlongs on dirt, and True Passion (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) is our highest-rated pick across the three free races — she's the one to beat. In Race 2, a maiden special weight going 1⅛ miles on dirt, Tap to Open (6/5 ML, 86.28) is the probable favorite and our analysis supports that confidence, though the longer trip makes pace shape critical. Swing over to Race 3 on the turf — a 1 1/16-mile claimer — and Abbi Fede (5/2 ML, 87.81) profiles as a smart play on what should be a firm, fast lawn after a dry week.

One angle worth noting across all three free races: with benign weather and consistent footing, there's no surface excuse today. Clean trips and honest pace scenarios should let the best horses do their thing — which is exactly the kind of day where our top ratings tend to hit at a solid clip.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming route on dirt features a clear top two in the TrackWiz ratings — Gewurztraminer and Aristotle — and the pace scenario between a 32% career winner and a consistent Mark Casse trainee should make for a fascinating stretch duel.

win8GewurztraminerML 2/1

Gewurztraminer heads into this race as both the morning line favorite at 2/1 and our top-rated horse at 86.72. A career win rate of 32% is outstanding and suggests this is a horse that shows up and delivers on a regular basis. Emmanuel Esquivel gets the mount for trainer Cipriano Contreras, and with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field, Gewurztraminer is a deserving top choice going a mile and a sixteenth on the Churchill dirt.

place2AristotleML 5/1

Aristotle represents the Mark Casse barn with Jose Ortiz Jr. in the irons — that's a formidable combination at any level. A TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and a 30% career win rate make Aristotle the most logical threat to the top pick, and the 5/1 morning line actually offers some value given how close these two are on the numbers. Use Aristotle underneath in exactas and in your trifecta keys.

show3BearingsML 3/1

Bearings sits third in our ratings at 73.45 for trainer Peter Miller, with Cristian Torres up from post 3 — an ideal stalking position in a one-turn mile and a sixteenth. A 17% career win rate is workable, and at a 3/1 morning line, Bearings gives the exacta and trifecta a reliable third wheel. Miller trains horses to fire second and third off the layoff, and this horse fits the profile of a consistent performer at this class level.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 13-horse maiden claiming sprint draws a wide-open cast of first-timers and winless veterans — with our top pick coming from well off the morning line, this race sets up as a prime value-hunting opportunity.

win7HellaciousML 12/1

Hellacious is our top selection at a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 — the highest in this 13-horse field — despite carrying a 12/1 morning line that screams underlay on our numbers. Trainer Niccolo Troiani sends Francisco Arrieta out on a horse who has posted an average speed figure of 54, which stacks up well in this company. Maiden claimers at seven furlongs are often decided by which horse can sustain speed the longest, and Hellacious profiles as the most capable on our model. At double-digit odds, this is a genuine value play.

place11Mandy's Man CanML 5/1

Mandy's Man Can rates second in the field at 64.68 with Evin Roman up for trainer Paulo Lobo from post 11. An average speed figure of 54 and a 5/1 morning line put this horse in a reasonable spot — not a standout, but a consistent profile that fits this field. In a wide-open maiden claimer, the second-best rated horse covering decent ground figures to earn a check at a price worth playing in exactas.

show1Ace Jack DeuceML 3/1

Ace Jack Deuce draws post 1 for trainer Randy Morse with Rafael Bejarano aboard — a rider who can be lethal on the front end from the rail in sprint races. A TrackWiz rating of 59.45 puts Ace Jack Deuce third in the field, and at 3/1, this is a logical show anchor. The inside post could allow Bejarano to find a clean trip and save ground, which at 7 furlongs on Churchill's main track can make all the difference.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of 13 in this one-mile claiming race creates a messy pace picture, but Cant Stop Munnings pops off the page in our ratings and Tyler Gaffalione has been riding like a man on fire lately at Churchill Downs.

win8Cant Stop MunningsML 7/2

Cant Stop Munnings sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — a full ten points clear of the next rival — and Saffie Joseph Jr. is one of the sharpest claiming trainers in the game when he sends a horse to post as a top selection. Tyler Gaffalione aboard adds to the confidence; he's consistently been one of the meet's leading riders. A career win rate of 11% in claiming ranks is reflective of the grind, but the speed figure and rating here tell a strong story.

place13CulpritML 3/1

Culprit draws a 3/1 morning line for Wesley Ward and Gerardo Corrales from post 13 — an outside draw that could be tricky in a one-mile race, but Ward horses are typically fit and ready. A TrackWiz rating of 76.52 puts Culprit clearly second in this field, and a 14% career win rate at this level is honest. If the pace gets hot up front, this is the horse most likely to close into a piece of it.

show1Landing CraftML 9/2

Landing Craft makes sense as a show anchor for trainer Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz Jr. on board. A TrackWiz rating of 72.96 and an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the best in the field alongside Another Monarch — suggest Landing Craft brings legitimate talent into this spot. The 9/2 morning line is fair, and with a top-five jockey aboard for a sharp barn, this horse is a logical trifecta piece.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A tight turf sprint at 5.5 furlongs with three horses in the mid-to-upper 80s by TrackWiz ratings sets up a genuinely competitive top of the market, though the morning lines suggest the public is leaning toward the bottom half of that trio.

win1Fancy Caber NeighML 4/1

Fancy Caber Neigh tops our ratings at 85.62 for trainer William Morey with Ben Curtis in the irons, entering from the rail post at 4/1 on the morning line. A career win rate of 16% is modest, but the rating advantage here is meaningful — this horse projects as the most likely winner on our model. Short turf sprints can be pace-dependent, and Fancy Caber Neigh's average speed figure of 56 slots in nicely with the rest of the field.

place4CloeML 7/2

Cloe brings the most compelling win percentage in this race at 28%, and Michael Maker is a trainer who places horses well on the turf. Luis Saez takes the mount from post 4 — a clean outside draw in a 10-horse sprint that allows for options. A TrackWiz rating of 84.65 keeps Cloe squarely in play, and at 7/2, this is a live contender who deserves to be underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show7ItzelML 3/1

Itzel sits third in our ratings at 74.77 with Florent Geroux aboard for Peter Miller — a trainer known for placing turf horses in spots they can fire. A 26% career win rate is impressive and suggests Itzel is a proven performer at this level. At 3/1, the morning line may actually undervalue the show position, making this a rock-solid trifecta anchor for bettors looking to get creative.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Small Town draws the top TrackWiz rating in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer, but the morning line favorite is actually the 2/1 Munnings Challenge — creating an interesting split between public opinion and our model that savvy bettors should note.

win1Small TownML 7/2

Small Town leads our ratings at 86.35 with Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Michael McCarthy — one of the most respected conditioners in the country. The 7/2 morning line represents genuine overlay value given the rating advantage over the field, and Prat has the tactical versatility to place this horse wherever the pace scenario dictates at six furlongs. With an average speed figure of 55, Small Town is ready to compete and Prat rarely wastes a trip.

place5HammondML 12/1

Hammond is an intriguing play here at 12/1 on the morning line — Tyler Gaffalione rides for Saffie Joseph Jr., a trainer who puts horses in position to run big in these optional claimers. A TrackWiz rating of 61.4 and a 33% career win rate make Hammond a live longshot threat, and the double-digit morning line screams value if our model is correct that this horse is better than the public projects. A strong place bet at those odds has real upside.

show2Munnings ChallengeML 2/1

Munnings Challenge is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — backed by a 50% career win rate and Brad Cox sending out Jose Ortiz Jr. from post 2. Our rating of 58.33 puts Munnings Challenge below Small Town on the TrackWiz scale, but a 50% win rate is almost impossible to ignore. Whether or not this horse wins, it's hard to see Cox and Ortiz leaving the winner's circle entirely — making this a logical show hedge in any exotics ticket.

Race 9

8:55 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden claiming field on the turf mile looks like chaos on paper, but Raconteuse separates herself from the pack with a TrackWiz rating nearly 24 points higher than the next contender — rare clarity in a crowded race.

win8RaconteuseML 3/1

Raconteuse is a commanding top selection at a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the highest in a 16-horse field by a wide margin — and Francisco Arrieta gets the mount for Ian Wilkes, a trainer with a strong record placing maiden turf runners in competitive spots. The 3/1 morning line is actually reasonable given the rating dominance, though in a field this large, any trip trouble can derail even the most deserving winner. Back this horse with conviction and build your exotics around her.

place7Debby's GalML 6/1

Debby's Gal draws a 6/1 morning line for Richard Baltas with Tyler Gaffalione up — and two Gaffalione mounts in the same race (he also rides English Harbour) means the rider chose to stick on this one, which is a meaningful signal. A TrackWiz rating of 63.59 sits just a hair above Daring Madison, and Baltas is a trainer who conditions horses to be ready on the turf. In a 16-horse maiden claimer, the place position has real value at those odds.

show1Daring MadisonML 4/1

Daring Madison gets Jose Ortiz Jr. from post 1 for trainer Philip Bauer, and the rail draw in a one-mile turf maiden claimer is a viable position — especially with a top-tier jockey who can save ground on the inside. A TrackWiz rating of 63.32 puts this horse in a tight cluster at the top of the second tier, and at 4/1, Daring Madison is a workable show anchor. Ortiz doesn't take throwaway mounts, and his presence here commands attention.

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Today at Churchill Downs is a clean, playable card with good conditions and legitimate betting angles from the first post to the nightcap. True Passion in Race 1 is our top-rated pick of the day among the free selections, and there's plenty of value to hunt in the premium races — including a longshot angle in Race 5 (morning line 12/1) that our model likes more than the oddsmakers do. As always, no guarantees in this game, but the data points us in a clear direction. Good luck out there — and if you want the full picture, go premium.

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