Daily Picks

Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — May 28, 2026

Thursday, May 28, 20268 racesBelterra Park

It's a beautiful Thursday at Belterra Park — clear skies, 77°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses who can get to the front and set their own terms. Eight races are on the board today, all contested on the main dirt surface, giving us a clean, consistent read from top to bottom of the card.

With no weather complications in the mix, today is a pure handicapping day. Speed figures and pace scenarios should play out close to form, which means the data means something — and TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on where the value lives. Three races are open for everyone, and five more are waiting for subscribers who want the full picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The TrackWiz model loves Cedrato here despite a morning line that underestimates him — this one could go wire to wire while the public chases the favorite.

win5CedratoML 5/2

Cedrato (No. 5) tops our ratings at 87.81 — the clear class of this claiming field by a wide margin. His 12% career win rate is the second-best in the field and he pairs with Oscar Villarreal, who knows how to navigate the longer 1-mile 70-yard route. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's reasonable value for a horse our model grades as a significant standout.

place4B. SwiftyML 6/1

B. Swifty (No. 4) sits second in our TrackWiz ratings at 70.08 and brings the top average speed figure in the field at 53. While a 5% career win rate isn't flashy, this horse profiles as a grinder who can find the board at 6/1 — making him a solid place play and a nice inclusion in exacta boxes with Cedrato.

show1Inherent GraceML 2/1

Inherent Grace (No. 1) catches your eye immediately with a 50% career win rate — the best in this field by a country mile. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a name that commands respect, and while the 58.33 rating trails our top two, that win percentage suggests this horse knows how to fire. A show slot and exotic play at 2/1 offers some protection if she underperforms her big number.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt with a clean top two in the ratings — this race shapes up as a two-horse battle between Classic Tiramisu and Elevated Power.

win5Classic TiramisuML 3/1

Classic Tiramisu (No. 5) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in this five-and-a-half furlong sprint and carries the best average speed figure in the field at 53. In a maiden claiming race where the entire field is still looking for win number one, our model gives this one a meaningful edge. Trainer Richard Estvanko has his runner at 3/1 on the morning line — fair odds for the top-rated horse.

place1Elevated PowerML 7/2

Elevated Power (No. 1) grades out second at 80.73 with Yarmarie Correa up — a jockey who is active throughout today's card and clearly comfortable at this oval. The 52 average speed figure matches several rivals, but the rating gap between Elevated Power and the rest of the field outside the top two is notable. A place spot feels very much within reach at 7/2.

show2Bizy DreaminML 5/1

Bizy Dreamin (No. 2) comes in third in our ratings at 60.8 and checks in with a 52 average speed figure. Rafael Mojica Jr. takes the mount, and this horse offers enough upside to land in the show hole in a race where the bottom of the field is bunched close together. At 5/1, the show price is workable for those looking to go deeper in the exactas.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Garden Leave stands out on paper in this one-mile claiming affair, but the rest of the field brings legitimate career win percentages that keep this from being a throwaway race.

win5Garden LeaveML 3/1

Garden Leave (No. 5) is the top-rated horse in this field by a comfortable margin at 87.08, and trainer Sergio Donjuan sends this one out at a reasonable 3/1 morning line. The 16% career win rate is respectable in a claiming field, and Santiago Gonzalez gets the call — a rider who's appeared on multiple cards today and clearly knows this circuit. The pace setup over a one-mile dirt route suits a horse our model singles out this clearly.

place3King of KentuckyML 7/2

King of Kentucky (No. 3) sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 62.5 and brings a 20% career win rate to the table — solid for a claiming horse. Yarmarie Correa keeps the mount, and the 52 average speed figure ties the best in the field alongside Garden Leave. At 7/2, there's genuine place value here, especially if the top pick draws out the pace and leaves room for King of Kentucky to come running.

show1Raison KarterML 6/1

Raison Karter (No. 1) owns a 24% career win rate — among the better marks in this field — and Guillermo Rodriguez rides from the rail. The 59.76 TrackWiz rating is right behind our place pick, and while the 52 average speed figure won't blow anyone away, this horse has earned checks before at this level. A show ticket at 6/1 represents genuine value in exacta and trifecta construction.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation for the day. Cedrato opens the card in Race 1 — a one-mile claiming route where our ratings peg him as the class of the field at an 87.81 score on a morning line of 5/2. In Race 2, Classic Tiramisu gets our nod in a 5½-furlong maiden claimer, and Race 3 brings Garden Leave into focus at a mile on the dirt, both carrying identical 87.08 ratings and 3/1 morning lines. That's a rare alignment worth noting — two horses at the same number on the same morning line tells you the early speed figures are tight, but our pace projections break the tie.

On a fast, dry Belterra strip like today's, front-runners and horses with tactical speed tend to hold their edges longer than you'd expect. Keep that bias in mind as you look at how these three races set up — it's a thread that runs through the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance six-furlong sprint that looks like a three-way battle at the top — but Al Mustaneera's combination of elite rating and the best speed figure in the field is hard to ignore.

win3Al MustaneeraML 4/1

Al Mustaneera (No. 3) leads this allowance field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 55 — a meaningful edge in a six-furlong dash where raw speed matters. A 33% career win rate is exceptional at any level and positions this horse as a legitimate class standout, not just a paper favorite. Santiago Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Andrew McKeever, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there may be mild value here if the crowd leans toward the morning line favorite.

place5Papas LadyML 3/1

Papas Lady (No. 5) checks in at 64.27 in our ratings with a 25% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure — a consistent profile that screams board horse. Yarmarie Correa takes the mount, and Papas Lady's morning line of 3/1 reflects public respect for her recent form. If Al Mustaneera draws the pace wide open, Papas Lady has the figures to close into a place spot.

show2Waffle House GangML 7/2

Waffle House Gang (No. 2) rates third on our model at 60.37 and brings a 20% career win rate alongside a 53 average speed figure — nearly identical to the place pick. Rafael Mojica Jr. rides for trainer Keith Kinmon, and the 7/2 morning line means the public rates this one closely with our show pick and place pick. In a tight three-way matchup at the top, Waffle House Gang gives you coverage in trifectas.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Fourteen runners in a maiden claiming route is a handicapper's puzzle — our model cuts through the chaos and zeros in on Tectonic as the class of a wide-open field.

win10TectonicML 6/1

Tectonic (No. 10) tops this massive field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — the highest by a solid margin among 14 maiden claimers. Oscar Villarreal gets the mount for trainer Justin Wojczynski, and a 52 average speed figure is competitive in a field where the numbers are tightly bunched. The 6/1 morning line is where the real appeal lies — our top-rated horse is being overlooked by the morning line makers, which is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place14My WishML 6/1

My Wish (No. 14) rates second among our picks at 57.66 with a 52 average speed figure and gets Orlando Bocachica in the irons for trainer Eduardo Caramori. The 6/1 morning line matches our win pick, which creates an interesting exacta opportunity if both land on the board. In a field this deep, a horse with a clear ratings edge over the bottom half of the draw is worth keying in place positions.

show7Lady AshantaML 3/1

Lady Ashanta (No. 7) rates at 56.67 on our model — very close to the place pick — and boasts a 53 average speed figure, one of the better marks in the field. Jann Hernandez rides for Yoni Orantes, and the 3/1 morning line tells you the public isn't sleeping on this one. She's a natural show anchor for trifectas in a wide-open maiden route, offering some cushion if the top two separate from the field.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Swayback Jack enters as a heavy morning line even-money favorite in this starter optional claiming sprint — our model backs that up emphatically with the top rating in the field.

win2Swayback JackML EVN

Swayback Jack (No. 2) is the standout here, carrying a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse across today's entire card at Belterra Park. A 23% career win rate is strong at this level, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix. Yarmarie Correa gets the call for trainer Carmino Nocero, and while even-money favorites always carry risk, the data says this one is deserving of the short price.

place1For MamaML 3/1

For Mama (No. 1) leads our place analysis with a 65.02 rating and a 54 average speed figure that matches the favorite stride for stride on paper. A 20% career win rate suggests this horse consistently fires — Guillermo Rodriguez takes the rail post, and a 3/1 morning line gives the place bet real value if Swayback Jack finds trouble or gets challenged hard in the stretch.

show3Melody WinML 2/1

Melody Win (No. 3) sits third in our ratings at 60.31 but owns the best average speed figure among this group at 55 — arguably the most eye-catching raw speed in the field. Santiago Gonzalez rides for trainer Gerard Ochoa, and a 16% career win rate isn't bad for a 2/1 morning line runner. If the pace heats up early between the top two, Melody Win's pure speed could carry her through to a show spot.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favors That's Fair at 3/1 in this maiden special weight sprint, but our TrackWiz model sees a meaningful value opportunity with Catching My Wind at 8/1.

win8Catching My WindML 8/1

Catching My Wind (No. 8) is our top-rated horse in this field at 79.79 — above both the morning line favorite and Paulding Flash — and carries a 53 average speed figure, the best among runners with recorded figures. Trainer Nancy Adams sends this one out at 8/1, which is a significant disconnect from our ratings. Jann Hernandez gets the mount, and in a maiden special weight field where the whole field is winless, a horse with this kind of rating edge at this price is a genuine value play.

place6That's FairML 3/1

That's Fair (No. 6) rates second on our model at 75.83 and is the morning line favorite at 3/1 — Summer Pauly gets the call for trainer Larry Smith. A 52 average speed figure is solid for this maiden sprint, and the public is clearly respecting this one's chances. We're happy to include That's Fair in the place position and lean on the value at the top instead.

show1Paulding FlashML 4/1

Paulding Flash (No. 1) checks in at 59.27 in our ratings with the top average speed figure among all horses in this race at 54. Trainer T.R. Haehn sends this one from the rail with Cesar Orantes up, and a 4/1 morning line means the public has some interest here too. The combination of gate speed from the inside post and that eye-catching 54 figure makes Paulding Flash a legitimate show contender and trifecta piece.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of first-time-or-still-looking maiden claimers going a mile — the TrackWiz model finds two horses nearly deadlocked at the top and a third offering sneaky value deeper in the card.

win2DiscombobulaatorML 3/1

Discombobulaator (No. 2) tops the TrackWiz ratings for this race at 87.08 — clear of the field in our model despite a 3/1 morning line that suggests the public is already on board. Trainer Eduardo Caramori sends this one out with Orlando Bocachica in the irons, a combination worth tracking on this card. The 51 average speed figure is in line with most of the field, but it's the overall rating profile that sets this horse apart in what is otherwise a very competitive maiden field.

place13Summer SoundsML 3/1

Summer Sounds (No. 13) is essentially a dead heat with our win pick in the ratings at 84.94 — the closest margin between a win and place selection in today's entire card. Victor Lebron gets the mount for Kelsey Danner, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate two-way action between Discombobulaator and Summer Sounds. Including both in an exacta makes sense given how tight our model sees their chances.

show1Dynamic VictoryML 4/1

Dynamic Victory (No. 1) rates third among our selections at 80.56, making this one of the deepest top-three groupings on today's card. Yarmarie Correa — one of the busiest jockeys at Belterra today — takes the mount for trainer Agustin Gonzalez Jr. from the rail. A 50 average speed figure is slightly behind the top two, but a 4/1 morning line and that strong rating make Dynamic Victory an ideal show anchor in trifectas.

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Bottom line: Cedrato, Classic Tiramisu, and Garden Leave are today's free best bets on a clear, fast Belterra surface. Swayback Jack is the marquee play on the full card and the name to build your late Pick 3 around. For pace projections, longshot angles, and full exotic breakdowns across all eight races, the complete TrackWiz analysis is waiting for you — head to /pricing to get access.

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