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Belmont at Saratoga Picks & Predictions — June 5, 2026

June 5, 202614 racesAll Saratoga picks

This card ran on June 5, 2026.

Best bets at Belmont at Saratoga, June 5, 2026

Race 19Dark AssaultML 6/111:45 AM EDT

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It's a full 14-race Friday at Belmont at Saratoga, and the card is loaded from top to bottom. We've got five stakes races spread across dirt and turf, a mix of maiden battlegrounds, and some legitimate value spots tucked into the allowance ranks. This is exactly the kind of card where one sharp angle can turn a good day into a great one.

Conditions are about as good as you'll get in early June — partly cloudy skies and 81°F means the racing surface should be consistent all afternoon. No weather excuses today. The turf courses in particular should be playing true, which matters a lot when you've got five races on the grass, including a marquee 1 3/16-mile stakes to close out the turf action.

We've broken down all 14 races using TrackWiz ratings, pace scenario modeling, and trainer/jockey angle data. Three races are open to everyone — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the full card including all five stakes races is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:45 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden dirt route where first-out runners dominate the field — the key question is which debuting horse is sitting on the most upside, and TrackWiz analysis points to a significant rating gap at the top.

win9Dark AssaultML 6/1

Dark Assault is the standout here by a considerable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 that towers over the rest of this maiden field. Claude R. McGaughey III has a long track record of bringing first-out horses to the gate ready to fire, and pairing him with Manuel Franco adds a tactical dimension at the route distance. The 6/1 morning line represents real value given how far this horse separates from the competition on our model — this is a horse the market may undervalue at first glance.

place8Hadrian's WallML 7/5

Hadrian's Wall draws the chalk role at 7/5 on the morning line, and Chad C. Brown's operation rarely sends a horse out at that price without reason. The TrackWiz rating of 59.33 is second-best in the field, and Flavien Prat's presence in the irons suggests connections believe this horse is ready. That said, the gap between Hadrian's Wall and Dark Assault is meaningful — a place slot feels like the right expectation here.

show3CommerceML 9/2

Commerce for William Mott checks in with a 54.17 rating and an average speed figure of 52, giving him a baseline of actual race data that many of these debuters lack. Junior Alvarado is a reliable pilot and Mott has the craftsmanship to have a first-starter ready at a mile and an eighth. At 9/2, Commerce is a reasonable exotics anchor if you're building around a win ticket on Dark Assault.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Projectability's 42% career win rate stands out like a sore thumb in this six-furlong allowance optional claimer — but there's a legitimate pace setup behind the scenes that makes this race more interesting than it looks on paper.

win6ProjectabilityML 5/1

Projectability is the clear TrackWiz top pick with an 84.17 rating and — the stat that jumps off the page — a 42% career win rate, the highest in the field by a significant margin. Linda Rice conditions horses for sharp efforts in spots just like this, and Jaime Rodriguez keeps the horse competitive in the pace picture without overexerting early. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of value play where the market hasn't fully caught up to the win percentage.

place2Elysian MeadowsML 9/2

Elysian Meadows checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 75.17 for Bill Mott, who consistently puts together competitive horses at this level. Junior Alvarado rides, and the 9/2 morning line is fair given a 14% career win clip — not flashy, but steady. If Projectability gets pressure up front, Elysian Meadows figures to be right there at the wire with a typical Mott-style late run.

show3Hit the PostML 7/2

Hit the Post is the most accomplished runner in the field by win percentage at 22%, which tells you this horse has shown up consistently at this level. Christopher Elliott gets the call for Melanie Giddings, and the 74.60 TrackWiz rating is barely a tick behind Elysian Meadows. The 7/2 morning line makes this a natural show anchor in any exotics structure for a race that figures to be fairly contested up front.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our three free best bets today span two maiden special weight routes and a sprinting allowance optional claimer, and there's a common thread worth noting: in each of these races, our top pick carries a morning line that suggests the market may be underestimating them. Dark Assault (6/1 ML, Race 1) headlines the free selections with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 in a 1 1/8-mile maiden dirt route — a distance where pace scenario and early position are going to matter enormously. In Race 2, Projectability (5/1 ML) brings an 84.17 rating into a 6-furlong AOC that figures to be contested at a fast pace — exactly the kind of spot where a stalker can swoop late. And in Race 3, morning-line favorite Criteria (7/2 ML) headlines the 6.5-furlong maiden dirt for a rating of 81.14.

The early dirt races are the place to watch for pace bias clues. If speed is holding through Races 1 and 2, lean into front-runners in the back half of the card. If closers are picking up ground, adjust accordingly. This is where TrackWiz analysis helps you stay ahead of the board.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

12:54 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Chad Brown's Criteria is the class of this maiden dirt sprint on numbers, but a pair of intriguing double-digit longshots could blow up the trifecta if the pace scenario sets up for closers.

win6CriteriaML 7/2

Criteria posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 81.14 for Chad Brown, who is reliably dangerous with first-time starters and short-priced favorites at Saratoga. Flavien Prat is as good as it gets for finding pace and position in a sprint, and an average speed figure of 54 gives this horse a concrete baseline. The 7/2 morning line is fair — this looks like a horse the connections are pointing toward a first-out win.

place9PuteketekeML 10/1

Puteketeke is a legitimate value play at 10/1 on the morning line, rating 71.66 on the TrackWiz model — third-best in the field. Michael Maker conditions the horse and Ricardo Santana Jr. gives it a capable pilot, while the average speed of 55 is actually the highest among horses with documented figures. At that price, Puteketeke is the kind of horse that makes trifecta structures very attractive.

show2OnepacML 15/1

Onepac at 15/1 is easy to overlook in a full field, but a TrackWiz rating of 69.58 puts this runner well inside the top half of a large field. Reylu Gutierrez has been a competitive presence at the Saratoga meet, and trainer John P. Terranova II has a knack for spotting maiden spots carefully. The average speed of 54 is in line with the field average — this is a show ticket worth adding at that morning line price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

1:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 fur · Dirt

Two heavy hitters clash at the top of a short stakes field — Ways and Means and Grand Job are a combined 35 lengths clear of the rest on TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential two-horse show at seven furlongs.

win3Ways and MeansML EVN

Ways and Means tops the TrackWiz model at 90.00 — the highest rating of any horse in this race — while going postward as the even-money morning line choice for Chad Brown. Flavien Prat aboard is the premier jockey for this kind of tactical sprint, and an average speed figure of 56 is the best in the field. A 45% career win rate adds further credibility to the case that this horse belongs at the top of any ticket here.

place1Grand JobML 6/5

Grand Job is the other half of what looks like a contentious battle for the lead, carrying a 57% career win rate — the highest in the field — and a strong 82.53 TrackWiz rating. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado team up, and at 6/5 on the morning line the market clearly agrees this horse is a serious threat. Whether Ways and Means beats Grand Job may come down to pace — if they press each other early, there could be room for a bomb to sneak in.

show4Senza ParoleML 8/1

Senza Parole at 8/1 is the most interesting underneath horse in this compact field, with a 42% career win rate suggesting consistent form even if the TrackWiz rating of 45.88 is a clear step below the top two. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for Chad Brown, and Brown routinely runs multiple horses in stakes races — Senza Parole gets a top-tier pilot with a barn that knows how to hit the board. If the pace scenario between Ways and Means and Grand Job gets contentious, this horse could be picking up pieces late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:04 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive fifteen-horse turf sprint creates a chaotic pace scenario — TrackWiz loves Sheer Will at the top, but this full field is loaded with speed figures that cluster tightly and the market may be mispricing several contenders.

win15Sheer WillML 5/2

Sheer Will scores an 85.86 TrackWiz rating — tops in the field — while posting a 21% career win rate for Linda Rice. At 5/2 on the morning line, the pricing is fair but not overly generous, and Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the leg up, which always commands attention on turf. The average speed of 55 is right in the cluster of top performers here, and Rice has strong numbers conditioning horses for these short turf sprints.

place11SilsbeeML 4/1

Silsbee is the most compelling value in the top tier, rating 82.10 for George Weaver with an impressive 50% career win rate and an average speed of 57 — tied for the highest in the field. Manuel Franco rides, and Weaver's horses have a way of running their best when placed on turf at this distance. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's real worth here for place and exacta purposes.

show7Di NataleML 2/1

Di Natale checks in at 81.89 on the TrackWiz model — nearly identical to Silsbee — for Wesley Ward, who is arguably the best short-turf trainer in North America. Javier Castellano has hit his share of boards in big fields like this, and an average speed of 56 supports the profile. The 2/1 morning line makes Di Natale an interesting show anchor for exotics players looking for a logical key horse underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

Race 6

2:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

With sixteen maiden turf horses going a mile and a sixteenth, sorting out the contenders is a puzzle — but TrackWiz finds value in two double-digit longshots whose ratings don't match their morning line prices at all.

win1Isadora DuncanML 10/1

Isadora Duncan tops our ratings at 72.36 for Bill Mott with a 10/1 morning line that looks like a genuine overlay — this horse is rated more than four points clear of the next-best runner and is backed by one of the shrewdest conditioners at Saratoga. Junior Alvarado is aboard, and Mott's turf maidens routinely improve off their first few starts before showing their full hand. At 10/1, this is the kind of price that makes win betting attractive rather than just exotic coverage.

place12Jordan's LoveML 12/1

Jordan's Love at 12/1 is nearly as interesting on the TrackWiz model, checking in at 72.05 with an average speed of 54 for Thomas Morley. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount, giving the horse a competitive pilot in a large, complicated field. The rating puts Jordan's Love right at the top of the field while the morning line price suggests the market hasn't fully caught up — a strong place play.

show5Home WreckerML 10/1

Home Wrecker for Danny Gargan rates 67.96 — third-best in the field — at a 10/1 morning line that continues the value theme in this race. Kendrick Carmouche rides, and Gargan's horse carries an average speed of 54 that is competitive with the top tier. In a full sixteen-horse field on turf, race shape matters enormously, and Home Wrecker's profile fits a horse that can close into a soft pace and collect a piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

Race 7

3:16 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Three horses are clustered within two points of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this mile-and-an-eighth allowance optional claiming race — Bendoog, Full Screen, and Money Game could put on quite a show, and the pace scenario will be the deciding factor.

win7BendoogML 7/2

Bendoog leads our model at 86.35 for Bill Mott, a trainer who excels in these mid-level allowance routes, and Junior Alvarado is as reliable a pilot as you'll find at this level. An average speed of 54 keeps Bendoog squarely competitive on raw figures, and a 23% career win rate shows consistent effort without screaming that this horse peaks and fades. The 7/2 morning line provides a touch of value for a top-rated horse in a three-way battle at the top.

place1Full ScreenML 3/1

Full Screen is dangerous here with an 85.82 TrackWiz rating for Brad Cox and Manuel Franco in the irons — a formidable combination at any track. The 19% career win rate is the lowest among the top three horses, but Cox is known for placing horses into spots they can win, and a 3/1 morning line reflects that confidence. If the pace gets honest, Full Screen should be within striking distance in the stretch.

show8Money GameML 9/2

Money Game is a fascinating inclusion — a 100% career win rate (perfect record) and an 84.48 TrackWiz rating for Brad Cox, who sends out Irad Ortiz Jr. The average speed of 54 matches Bendoog and Full Screen, meaning the three top horses are virtually identical on figures. At 9/2, Money Game is the kind of horse you want in any trifecta combination — the record demands respect, and Cox doesn't run unbeaten horses carelessly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

3:52 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A full fifteen-horse turf sprint at five and a half furlongs creates maximum chaos, but Final Verdict's rating and Flavien Prat's turf pedigree separate them from the pack — the question is whether the price holds up to post time.

win3Final VerdictML 9/2

Final Verdict leads the TrackWiz model at 84.90 for Edward Barker with Flavien Prat in the irons, and at 9/2 this is a horse with a legitimate gap over most of the field. A 20% career win rate in a loaded fifteen-horse field is nothing to dismiss, and an average speed of 56 ranks among the best in this race. Prat on a turf sprinter with strong ratings is a familiar winning formula at this meet.

place4Spiced UpML 8/1

Spiced Up at 8/1 is the value angle here, rating 70.61 for Bill Mott with an average speed of 57 — the second-highest in the field and a tick better than the top-rated Final Verdict on raw figures. Junior Alvarado gets the mount, and Mott's horses tend to hit the board frequently even when they don't win outright. That speed figure combined with a morning line that feels too generous is exactly the kind of edge TrackWiz looks to exploit.

show13CommutedML 2/1

Commuted is the morning line favorite at 2/1 for Linda Rice, carrying a 43% career win rate that is by far the best in the field among horses with meaningful starts. Ricardo Santana Jr. is aboard, and Rice's horses are consistently dangerous in spots like this. The TrackWiz rating of 66.50 trails Final Verdict and Spiced Up, but the career win percentage suggests a horse that doesn't miss the board often — a reliable show anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 15 runners

Race 9

4:28 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Lion Lake enters as the morning line favorite on a turf course where pace dynamics at a mile and a sixteenth tend to favor horses with tactical speed — but Fitz Right's 60% career win rate makes this feel like a genuine two-horse race with a third contender lurking.

win8Lion LakeML 8/5

Lion Lake posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 for Brendan Walsh and goes with John Velazquez aboard — a combination that knows exactly how to handle stakes company on turf. The 8/5 morning line reflects strong market confidence, and an average speed of 55 supports the raw figures case. A 28% career win rate might seem modest, but in stakes competition that number carries more weight than it does at lower levels.

place2Fitz RightML 4/1

Fitz Right is the most intriguing underneath play in this race, checking in at 81.01 on our model with a 60% career win rate — the best in the field and a number that demands serious attention. Chad Brown and Flavien Prat team up, and Brown's turf horses at this level are regularly among the best-trained horses in the country. At 4/1, there's legitimate case that Fitz Right could turn the tables on Lion Lake if the pace scenario sets up favorably.

show5Time to DreamML 9/2

Time to Dream rates 80.86 for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, and the combination of a top-five trainer and an elite jockey in stakes company is never something to ignore. A 33% career win rate is solid at this level, and the 9/2 morning line offers some value if you're looking to spread in exactas and trifectas. Pletcher rarely puts a horse in a stakes without believing it can hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 10

5:08 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Always a Runner enters as the 4/5 morning line hammer with a perfect 100% career win rate, but Meaning's superior TrackWiz rating and Michael McCarthy's sharp conditioning puts a genuine overlay on the table in this five-horse dirt stakes.

win3MeaningML 3/1

Meaning tops the TrackWiz model at 87.08 for Michael McCarthy and goes with Juan Hernandez aboard at 3/1 — a morning line that represents real overlay value against the chalky favorite. A 60% career win rate is the second-best in the field and reflects consistent elite-level performance, while an average speed of 53 keeps the horse competitive on raw figures. McCarthy's record with dirt route stakes runners is strong enough that this isn't just a contrarian pick — the model genuinely puts Meaning above the favorite.

place5Always a RunnerML 4/5

Always a Runner's 100% career win rate and 85.14 TrackWiz rating make it impossible to fade entirely, even if the 4/5 morning line compresses the value. Jose L. Ortiz rides for Chad Brown, and Brown's horses in dirt stakes routinely perform to expectation regardless of price. The TrackWiz model prefers Meaning at the top, but Always a Runner is too accomplished to leave off a place ticket.

show1Prom QueenML 7/2

Prom Queen at 7/2 for Brad Cox is the logical third piece of this puzzle, rating 78.45 with a 50% career win rate that speaks to consistent stakes-level form. Flavien Prat rides, and Cox-Prat combinations in stakes races have an excellent record at this meet. If Meaning and Always a Runner press each other to a contested pace, Prom Queen is the natural beneficiary with a closing style.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 11

5:46 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/16 mi · Turf

Chad Brown saddles four horses in this turf stakes at a mile and three-sixteenths — Kathynmarissa leads our model, but barn-mate Portfolio Duration and a pair of intriguing outsiders give this race genuine depth and complexity.

win8KathynmarissaML 5/2

Kathynmarissa is the TrackWiz top pick at 86.77 with Jose L. Ortiz aboard for Chad Brown, and a 45% career win rate in stakes company is the hallmark of a horse that consistently performs at this level. The average speed of 54 is right in the cluster of the top contenders, and Brown's horses at this distance on turf are among the most reliable in the sport. The 5/2 morning line is fair, and Ortiz knows exactly how to rate a horse over a longer turf trip.

place1Portfolio DurationML 9/2

Portfolio Duration slots in right behind at 84.90 for Brown and Flavien Prat — the stable's other top jockey — at 9/2 on the morning line. A 50% career win rate is the joint-best in the race alongside Gezora, and the average speed of 55 is actually a tick better than Kathynmarissa on raw figures. When Brown runs two horses and both are rated in the 80s, it's often worth covering both on your ticket.

show4LaurelinML 8/1

Laurelin at 8/1 is the best value among the non-Brown runners, carrying a 62% career win rate that is the highest in the entire field and an average speed of 54 that is fully competitive. Graham Motion is a turf specialist who finds these spots carefully, and Kendrick Carmouche has ridden well at this meet. At a morning line of 8/1, the career win percentage alone makes Laurelin worth including in any trifecta structure.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 12

6:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Nitrogen enters as the 7/5 morning line favorite with the top TrackWiz number in a compact six-horse dirt stakes, but Alpine Princess and Fully Subscribed are only fractions of a point behind — this could be one of the most competitive races on the card.

win5NitrogenML 7/5

Nitrogen leads the TrackWiz model at 89.42 for Mark Casse with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons — the top combination of rating and jockey in this field. A 46% career win rate in stakes company is outstanding, and the 7/5 morning line reflects the market's confidence in this horse. At that price the return is modest, but if you're playing exotics with Nitrogen on top the win equity is strong enough to justify it.

place3Alpine PrincessML 4/1

Alpine Princess is razor-close at 84.49 on our model for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard at 4/1 — a morning line that feels generous given how tight the ratings are at the top. A 36% career win rate in competitive company and an average speed of 53 matching most of the field means this horse is fully capable of beating Nitrogen. Cox-Irad combinations in stakes have been clicking this meet, making Alpine Princess an appealing place play.

show1Fully SubscribedML 5/2

Fully Subscribed checks in at 83.83 for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat riding at 5/2 on the morning line — a competitive number in a race where the top three are separated by under six points. A 50% career win rate is the best in the field, and Brown's horses in dirt stakes rarely run poorly. At 5/2, the market respects this horse — use it as a show anchor or in exacta combinations beneath Nitrogen.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 13

7:04 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Princess Wadadli's 66% career win rate towers over a competitive seven-furlong allowance field, and a 8/1 morning line that doesn't match her win percentage profile makes her the headline value play of this race.

win3Princess WadadliML 8/1

Princess Wadadli leads the TrackWiz model at 79.79 with the best career win rate in the field at 66% — a number that far exceeds her 8/1 morning line odds. Flavien Prat gets the mount for Robert Falcone Jr., and this looks like a spot where the market may be underestimating a horse that wins almost two out of every three starts. An average speed of 53 is in range of the field average, and Prat will know exactly how to pace this horse in a seven-furlong sprint.

place6Grace and GritML 5/2

Grace and Grit comes in rated 76.99 for Amelia Green at a 5/2 morning line, with a 20% career win rate that reflects honest effort in competitive spots. Jaime Rodriguez rides, and the TrackWiz model puts this horse in a clear second tier behind Princess Wadadli. At 5/2, Grace and Grit is the horse the market loves here, and the rating supports inclusion as a place selection in any ticket construction.

show11Top of the TableML 10/1

Top of the Table at 10/1 is a legitimate value play with a 69.47 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — for Linda Rice, who thrives in allowance company. Sahin Civaci takes the mount, and while an average speed of 52 is slightly below the field median, a 15% career win rate shows consistent ability to place. At double digits, Top of the Table has enough rating to make the trifecta and is worth including as a show option.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 14

7:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A massive sixteen-horse maiden turf mile to close the card — Limited Edition's TrackWiz rating stands apart from the field, but Quiet Power and Blazing Tiger are right there to complicate things in what could be a wide-open finale.

win6Limited EditionML 7/2

Limited Edition leads this enormous field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating for Philip Antonacci, going with Ricardo Santana Jr. at a 7/2 morning line. An average speed of 55 is tied for the best among horses with recorded figures, and in a sixteen-horse field where first-timers abound, having documented race data is a meaningful edge. Santana is one of the most effective jockeys in big maiden turf fields, able to find position and save ground efficiently.

place14Quiet PowerML 5/1

Quiet Power at 5/1 is an intriguing runner with an 80.81 TrackWiz rating for Claude McGaughey III — a trainer who has won at Saratoga with maiden turf horses for decades. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount, and McGaughey rarely places a horse at this price without full confidence in its readiness. The average speed of 54 is competitive, and at 5/1 there's meaningful value if this horse runs to its rating.

show3Blazing TigerML 9/2

Blazing Tiger checks in at 72.13 for Miguel Clement with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons at 9/2 — a comfortable third on the TrackWiz model among horses with documented form. An average speed of 54 matches the top contenders, and Clement is a sharp conditioner who spots maiden turf horses into appropriate spots. With Ortiz on board, this horse will get every chance to hit the board late in a sixteen-runner field where the pace could get strung out.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 16 runners

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Today's card at Belmont at Saratoga is a legitimately strong Friday program — five stakes races, firm footing, and a few spots where our ratings diverge meaningfully from the morning line. Dark Assault, Projectability, and Criteria lead the free plays, while Nitrogen and Lion Lake headline what looks like a premium-tier afternoon for serious players. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are all waiting for subscribers — check out the pricing options at /pricing if you want in before the first race goes off. Good luck out there.

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