Daily Picks

Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 1, 2026

Monday, June 1, 20267 racesAssiniboia

It's a beautiful early-summer afternoon at Assiniboia Downs — partly cloudy skies, 77°F, and conditions that should have that Prairie dirt playing fast and fair. Seven races are on the board today, all on the main track, and the card has a nice mix of maiden claimers, straight claimers, and an allowance test to keep things interesting from gate to wire.

The first three races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and they're worth your attention — we've got a pair of 2/1 morning-line plays and a short-priced favourite in Race 3 who our models genuinely like. Races 4 through 7 are where the card gets deeper and the wagering opportunities open up, with a couple of pace scenarios that could produce some real overlay prices if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where experience is zero across the board — this one comes down to TrackWiz ratings and raw ability, with a clear standout hiding behind a generous morning line.

win5CashflowML 2/1

Cashflow carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, a significant gap above the second-best horse, and that kind of separation in a maiden field is hard to ignore. Trainer Craig Robert Smith sends this one out at 2/1 on the morning line, which actually represents fair value given the rating advantage. Matched with jockey Rachaad Knights, this looks like a horse that is meant to fire first time out. In a race where nobody has won before, the horse with the clearest edge in our model deserves top billing.

place1Red Dirt AlleyML 7/5

Red Dirt Alley opens as the morning-line favorite at 7/5, and a TrackWiz rating of 65.19 makes the public confidence somewhat understandable — it's second-best in the field. Neville Stephenson rides, and at 5½ furlongs on the dirt, this is a straightforward speed test where the favorite should at minimum hit the board.

show3Run Matteo RunML 3/1

Run Matteo Run checks in with a 60.54 TrackWiz rating and a 3/1 morning line that offers a touch of value relative to the top two. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. is a familiar name at Assiniboia, and jockey Tyrone Nelson knows the track well. For exotic players looking to fill out trifectas in this tricky maiden event, the #3 slot is a solid anchor.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating in this claiming sprint — a rare disconnect that opens the door for a couple of live prices underneath.

win5Stilettos OnlyML 2/1

Stilettos Only sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — matching the highest score we've seen on today's card — and posts an 11% career win rate while going postward at an honest 2/1 morning line. Trainer Jessica Bell and jockey Shavon Townsend combine here, and the numbers back this one as the class of the field. At 5½ furlongs on the dirt, a horse with this kind of rating separation should be able to dictate or press the pace and hold on.

place3DogwoodsmilliejaneML 7/1

Dogwoodsmilliejane is the value angle in this race at 7/1 on the morning line, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 76.68 that ranks third in the field but is separated from fourth by nearly 4 points. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. runs Devante Prescod aboard, and a 9% career win rate in a claiming field this competitive isn't a red flag — it's a horse that's been mixing it with tougher. If the price holds near morning line, this is a juicy exacta inclusion.

show2Mystery DanceML 3/1

Mystery Dance has a 13% career win rate — best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 72.08 that earns the third spot in our analysis. Trainer Steven Gaskin also runs Amass Money in this race, giving him two bites at the apple, and double-barrel barn entries often mean the connections know one of their horses is primed. Sven Balroop is up, and at 3/1 this one rounds out a sensible trifecta.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Jerry Gourneau saddles three horses in this 7½-furlong claiming test, but it's a horse with a 22% career win rate and a dominant TrackWiz rating that looks like the one to beat.

win6Wicked RoseML 8/5

Wicked Rose owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 and backs it up with the strongest career win percentage in the race at 22% — a number that screams consistent performer at this level. Jockey Sheldon Chickeness is in the irons for trainer Jerry Gourneau, and with the extra ground of 7½ furlongs on the dirt, a horse with that kind of proven closing power has plenty of room to work. The 8/5 morning line makes this one a short price, but the data doesn't leave much room for argument.

place5BranniganML 3/1

Brannigan, also trained by Jerry Gourneau, rates second at 77.65 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a 53 average speed figure — tied for the field's best alongside Wicked Rose and Sarah's Vision. At 3/1, this is a horse where barn confidence likely plays a role in the odds, and when a trainer runs multiple horses in a single race, you want the one with the strongest ratings profile underneath. Antonio Whitehall takes the mount.

show3Wrong DirectionML 6/1

Wrong Direction offers sneaky value at 6/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 74.0 and — importantly — the second-best career win rate in the field at 20%. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. gives the call to Devante Prescod, and for a horse sitting at that price, the credentials are strong enough to warrant inclusion in trifecta tickets. The 51 average speed figure is slightly below the top group, but win rate and rating make this one worth the extra spot.

Today's three free races span maiden claiming and open claiming company at sprint distances, all on a dirt surface that should be playing honest in this warm, dry weather. Cashflow (Race 1) and Stilettos Only (Race 2) both share the 2/1 morning line and identical TrackWiz ratings of 88.54 — two confident plays at the same price point is unusual, so both deserve a close look before you build your early tickets. The real headline of the free card is Wicked Rose in Race 3, who carries the highest rating of the trio at 89.12 and goes as the 8/5 favourite going two furlongs further than the openers. That class-meets-distance combination is worth noting as a potential key horse for multi-race wagers.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint is full of contradictions — the morning-line favorite has our lowest rating while a couple of mid-priced horses are quietly posting the strongest numbers, setting up a potential upset scenario.

win2NikkitysplitML 3/1

Nikkitysplit gets our top nod with a 77.24 TrackWiz rating and, more importantly, a 28% career win rate that is the best among horses with double-digit starts in this field — a genuinely elite number at the claiming and allowance level. Trainer Jared Brown puts Antonio Whitehall up, and this combination is worth tracking throughout the card. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's real value here against a morning-line favorite whose TrackWiz rating sits almost 33 points lower.

place3Boujee BritchesML 6/1

Boujee Britches comes in at 6/1 on the morning line with a 74.88 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to our win pick — close enough to suggest this race is genuinely competitive at the top. Trainer Wendy Anderson also runs The Wright Way, so she has a dual entry, but Boujee Britches is clearly the preferred runner by our model. Damario Bynoe rides, and the 11% career win rate in what figures to be a smaller overall sample hints at a horse that's been pointed for a spot like this.

show5NeytiriML 12/1

Neytiri is the longshot value play in the show position at 12/1, carrying a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that is essentially identical to our place pick's score — the numbers say she belongs. Jockey Ciera Pruitt rides for trainer Lise Pruitt in what appears to be a family operation, and that kind of personal investment in a horse can translate to sharp preparation. At those odds, she's a must-use in multi-race exotics if you're playing sequences through this race.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint on paper, but a horse with a 38% career win rate and the top rating in the field makes this look considerably less complicated than the field size suggests.

win1Finding WaysML 2/1

Finding Ways is the standout here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating combined with a 38% career win rate is the kind of profile that demands respect in any field, let alone a claiming sprint at 5 furlongs. Trainer Robert Maybin sends out jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the public is clearly onside with this one too. The 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best alongside Rags Royal Prinz, but no other horse in this race comes anywhere close on the overall rating.

place2Tiz RomanticML 7/2

Tiz Romantic sits second in our TrackWiz ratings at 75.58 and represents a solid safety net at 7/2 for place ticket players. Trainer Tom Gardipy Jr. gives the mount to Tyrone Nelson, a jockey who appears multiple times on today's card and clearly has strong stable relationships at this meet. The 13% career win rate is respectable in a field that includes some longer-priced entrants with surprisingly poor ratings.

show3Bossy HolidayML 5/2

Bossy Holiday checks in at 5/2 on the morning line with a 67.43 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate that's right in line with the middle tier of this field. Trainer Monique Goulet puts Antonio Whitehall up, and the 5/2 price suggests the public likes this one even more than our model does. For show bettors and trifecta builders, she's a logical third piece with enough public support to keep the price honest.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ten horses create a crowded claiming field at 5½ furlongs, but two horses are running well clear of the pack in the ratings — expect a contested pace that sets up for one of those two to close it out.

win2He Knows We KnowML 3/1

He Knows We Know tops our model at 87.08 with a sharp 25% career win rate, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value against a 10-horse field where most entrants are priced accurately or over-bet. Trainer Jared Brown turns to jockey Damario Bynoe, and with a 52 average speed figure matching the majority of the field, this race is likely to be decided by class and finishing kick rather than raw early speed. The combination of top rating and a strong win percentage makes this our play.

place6Rugged RoosterML 2/1

Rugged Rooster has the best career win percentage among the top-rated horses in this field at 28% and a TrackWiz score of 84.91 — only a shade below our win pick. Trainer Devon Gittens puts Rashawn Brewster in the saddle, and the 53 average speed figure is actually the best in the entire field, suggesting this one may be able to push the pace and still find something late. At 2/1 morning line, the oddsmakers clearly respect this runner's back class.

show4BettermakethattwoML 4/1

Bettermakethattwo rounds out our top three with a 72.2 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate that holds up well in this deep claiming field. Trainer Terry Neubuhr goes with Neville Stephenson, who is active throughout this card. At 4/1, there's enough value to make this one a comfortable show-bet anchor or third leg of a trifecta alongside two horses our model considers well above the field.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse claiming sprint at 5 furlongs where the morning-line favorite is not our top-rated horse — but our top pick has a 41% career win rate that is simply extraordinary and hard to fade.

win2TenforthebigguyML 5/2

Tenforthebigguy leads our analysis with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 41% career win rate — that is not a typo, and in a claiming field at this level, it's a massive edge. Trainer Judy Hunter sends out jockey Shavon Townsend, and the 54 average speed figure is right there with the best in the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair but not overly generous, which tells you the locals know this horse is live.

place1Valerie ValeskiML 5/1

Valerie Valeski is a value play at 5/1 with a 61.67 TrackWiz rating and jockey Ciera Pruitt in the irons for trainer Robert Maybin. The 54 average speed figure matches our win pick and several others in the field, keeping her competitive on raw figures even if the overall rating is a step below the top two. At this price, she's a nice each-way play and a strong inclusion on trifecta tickets — especially if the top two separate from the field and leave a hole for a 5/1 shot to close into third.

show5Cajun BertiML 12/1

Cajun Berti is the longshot value in the show spot at 12/1, with a 57.89 TrackWiz rating and a solid 25% career win rate that suggests this horse knows how to win at this level. Trainer Elton Dickey sends out Renaldo Cumberbatch, and the 54 average speed figure puts Cajun Berti right in the mix on figures alone. For players looking to widen their trifecta coverage in a race with an uncertain pace scenario, this is exactly the kind of double-digit price horse who keeps coming up big at small tracks.

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Assiniboia is serving up a clean, fast-looking card on a gorgeous June afternoon, and we've got plays we like from Race 1 all the way through Race 7. Cashflow, Stilettos Only, and Wicked Rose headline the free side — three horses our models back with conviction. For the full picture, including pace analysis, exotic strategy, and our deeper dives on Finding Ways, He Knows We Know, and Tenforthebigguy, the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck today — may the speed figures be ever in your favour.

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