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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

Thistledown kicks off its Thursday card with eight races on a mild, cloudy afternoon — 75 degrees and no rain in the forecast means the dirt should be playing fast and true. That's good news for speed horses, and based on our early pace projections, there are at least a couple of spots today where front-runners could wire the field.

The card mixes maiden special weights, a pair of allowance races, a starter optional claiming, and a straight claimer, giving bettors a wide variety of wagering angles. We've got three races open to everyone today, plus five premium deep-dives for TrackWiz subscribers. Whether you're playing a couple of win bets or building multi-race exotics, there's plenty to work with.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight going 5½ furlongs on dirt, but TrackWiz's model finds a clear separation at the top — Hardway Mike enters at 9/5 with a rating nearly 17 points clear of the field.

win7Hardway MikeML 9/5

Hardway Mike is the class of this maiden field by a considerable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — more than 17 points ahead of second-ranked First Timber. His average speed figure of 53 ties the top mark in the field, and trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich has him well-placed here. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount, and at 9/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this one is the horse to beat. In a field where most runners lack any recorded speed at all, Hardway Mike's combination of rating and speed makes him the standout selection.

place9First TimberML 9/2

First Timber checks in as the second-ranked horse in the field with a rating of 71.64 and an average speed figure of 53, matching the top horses here. Trainer Jason DaCosta has him primed, and Jerome J. Innis picks up the mount. At 9/2, there's some value to be had if Hardway Mike has any trouble, and First Timber's profile suggests he'll be competitive for a piece.

show10Silence EarthlingML 4/1

Silence Earthling carries the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 55 and tops the morning line at 4/1, suggesting the public likes him too. His average speed figure of 53 is among the best on the card today, and trainer Richard Zielinski sends him out with Fernando Salazar Becerra in the irons. As a show horse in exotics, he's a solid inclusion in a field where much of the competition has no recorded speed figures at all.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claiming sprint at 6 furlongs where two horses are nearly deadlocked atop the TrackWiz ratings — expect a pace battle and a contested stretch run.

win4Gunner GabrielML 4/1

Gunner Gabriel tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, edging Midnight Warship by less than a point, with a career win rate of 31% that speaks to a reliable and proven performer. His average speed figure of 54 is tied for the best in the field, and trainer Johanna Urieta sends him out with Rocco Bowen aboard — a sharp jockey-trainer combination. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here over the 3/1 second choice, and the ratings edge gives him the nod as our top selection.

place3Midnight WarshipML 3/1

Midnight Warship is razor-close to Gunner Gabriel in the ratings at 85.05, and his average speed of 55 actually leads the entire field — the highest number posted here. Trainer Michael L. Rone has him at 3/1, and Luis Raul Rivera gets the call. If the pace heats up early, Midnight Warship's superior speed figure could make him the one to run them all down late, making him a prime place contender.

show8Mr LooochML 5/2

Mr Loooch is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public respects him even if TrackWiz's model ranks him third at 75.97. His average speed figure of 54 ties the field's best, and trainer Marco Ibarra has a horse ready to fire. He's a solid show anchor in any exotics ticket and a horse who could easily flip the script if pace dynamics set up in his favor.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Isa Fortress headlines this maiden sprint as both the morning-line favorite and the top TrackWiz-rated horse, but O Sugar Sugar at 5/1 gives the field a legitimate challenger worth watching.

win8Isa FortressML 7/5

Isa Fortress is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 80.74 — more than 8 points clear of second-ranked O Sugar Sugar — and the morning line confirms it at 7/5. T.D. Houghton takes the mount for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, and Isa Fortress carries an average speed figure of 51 in a field where many horses have no recorded figures at all. In a maiden field this thin on experience, a horse who has shown the ability to produce consistent speed readings holds a major edge.

place5O Sugar SugarML 5/1

O Sugar Sugar rates second in the field at 72.78 and is worth a serious look at 5/1 on the morning line — that's real value against a chalk at short odds. Bailey Weatherly rides for trainer Christian Flores, and with an average speed figure of 51, O Sugar Sugar compiles right there with the top horses. She's the prime play underneath Isa Fortress and a great piece for any exacta or trifecta.

show2Fabulous SongML 3/1

Fabulous Song rates third in the field at 58.35 and draws the 3/1 morning line despite an average speed figure of just 50 — the public clearly sees something in her workouts or connections. Jose A. Leon rides for Danny R. Bird, and her rating edges out several horses who are showing similar speed numbers. As a show anchor she offers a bit of a cushion in a race where first-timers can be unpredictable.

Our three free races today span the sprint game with a dash of form analysis worth paying attention to. Hardway Mike opens the card in Race 1 — a maiden special weight sprint at 5½ furlongs — carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and posting as the 9/5 morning line favorite, which tells you the market already agrees with us here. In Race 2, Gunner Gabriel jumps out as a 4/1 value play in the starter optional claiming, a spot where pace dynamics could set up perfectly for a presser with upside. Then Race 3 brings Isa Fortress onto the scene as a short 7/5 chalk in another maiden special weight — a horse our ratings like, though the compressed price means you'll want to think about where you use her in exotics rather than straight win bets.

The through-line in today's free races? Sprint distances on a dry, quick track reward horses who can establish position early without getting rank. Watch the gate-to-first-call fractions closely — when those early splits come up slow, closers can sneak into the picture. But on a day like today, don't overthink it. Speed is your friend.

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Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming race where Into Gold's TrackWiz rating stands apart from the morning-line favorite, making this a potential overlay situation worth targeting.

win2Into GoldML 4/1

Into Gold tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and does so while going postward at a generous 4/1 — notably longer than the 9/5 morning-line chalk Mister Mobil. Trainer Johanson Serrano puts Luis Alberto Batista in the irons, a capable combination, and Into Gold carries an average speed figure of 52 with a career win rate of 13%. At a mile on dirt, horses with measured pace and a higher rating tend to reward patience, and Into Gold fits that profile perfectly.

place4Sammy's SmileML 2/1

Sammy's Smile is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and rates second in the field at 70.61, giving him real credibility even if our top pick shades him in the ratings. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Richard Zielinski — a barn that keeps runners sharp — and his average speed of 51 and 19% career win rate suggest a horse who shows up consistently. He's an excellent place option and the most logical horse to threaten Into Gold in the stretch.

show5Mister MobilML 9/5

Mister Mobil opens as the 9/5 favorite and rates third at 67.86, which tells you the model and the market aren't fully aligned here. His average speed figure of 52 ties Into Gold, and a 16% career win rate for trainer Ricardo Bailey suggests steady if unspectacular form. He's a safe show play in this spot, though bettors looking for value may want to reconsider his short price at the windows.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A large 12-horse maiden field at 5½ furlongs where the ratings are tightly bunched at the top — this one could come down to pace scenario and post position as much as raw ability.

win3TulsiML 5/2

Tulsi earns the TrackWiz top selection here with a rating of 57.5 and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in this field. Trainer Jason DaCosta saddles her with Luis Alberto Batista aboard, and DaCosta is no stranger to sending sharp maidens to the gate ready to compete. At 5/2, she's close to the chalk but still offers reasonable value in a race where the field's overall quality is modest.

place10Inside JokeML 7/2

Inside Joke rates just below Tulsi at 55.83 with an average speed figure of 54 that matches the top pick. Trainer Robert M. Gorham puts Erik Barbaran aboard, and Gorham also has Pipsy Chick in the race — always worth noting when a trainer saddles multiple runners. Inside Joke's speed figure and solid rating make her a strong place contender, and at 7/2 there's a little value to go with it.

show2About That TimeML 4/1

About That Time draws a 4/1 morning line from a big barn — trainer Brendan P. Walsh — which is the kind of connection that gets attention in maiden races. Her TrackWiz rating of 55 is right in the thick of the top group, and while no average speed figure is recorded, Walsh's maiden runners often debut with more than they show on paper. She's a worthwhile show inclusion and a name to watch if the pace collapses the leaders.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs that shapes up as a two-horse war at the top — Tia Lupe and Bend My Ear are separated by just 0.21 rating points, setting the table for a genuine battle.

win1Tia LupeML 2/1

Tia Lupe earns the win nod with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54, a marginal edge over Bend My Ear's 88.33 but meaningful nonetheless. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Elias Lopez, and Tia Lupe carries an average speed of 53 alongside a 10% career win rate in what looks like a tougher class level. The 2/1 morning line is short, but with the highest composite rating in the race and a sharp jockey, she's the one to beat.

place3Bend My EarML 8/5

Bend My Ear is impossible to dismiss at 8/5 — actually the shorter price than our top pick — and brings a 25% career win rate that dwarfs almost anyone else in this field. Trainer David Wolochuk also has Magic Moon in the race, suggesting confidence in the barn, and Bend My Ear's average speed of 54 leads all runners. If you want to flip the win and place picks based on price, there's a reasonable case to be made here.

show6Suzie Q's SisterML 5/1

Suzie Q's Sister rates third in the field at 80.98 — meaningfully clear of the rest — and posts a 16% career win rate with an average speed of 53. Luis Alberto Batista rides for Jason DaCosta, a trainer who has multiple runners on today's card and clearly has his horses firing. At 5/1, she's the best show value in this race and a strong trifecta anchor behind the top two.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight at 6 furlongs where Native Lucci holds a clear ratings edge over the field — but Bold Sally at double-digit odds is one of the more interesting longshot profiles on the card today.

win5Native LucciML 2/1

Native Lucci earns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 73.87, nearly 7 points clear of the second choice, Bold Sally. She opens at 2/1 on the morning line with David J. Haldar aboard for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, and her average speed figure of 51 gives her a recorded foundation that many rivals here lack. In a field with several horses showing no speed figures at all, a horse with Native Lucci's combination of rating, price, and speed stands out decisively.

place7Bold SallyML 10/1

Bold Sally is the longshot value angle here, but her profile is compelling enough to slot in as the place pick. She rates second in the field at 66.66 with an average speed figure of 52 — actually better than the favorite — and Jacinto Lopez sends her out at 10/1, which is a price that deserves serious attention. Mauro Cedillo in the irons adds a reliable rider to the mix, and if Native Lucci runs into any trouble early, Bold Sally has the numbers to capitalize.

show3YoungandfreeML 3/1

Youngandfree rates third in the field at 56.67 with the best average speed figure of any horse in the top three at 53. Trainer Kristina M. Tumblin puts Erik Barbaran aboard, and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. She's a solid show contender who could easily run into the money if the pace develops in her favor.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The day's feature-style closer is an allowance mile that features one of the highest TrackWiz ratings on the entire card — Water Into Wine's 88.83 tops the field, but Teaching Moment's remarkable 75% career win rate makes this more than a one-horse race.

win5Water Into WineML 9/5

Water Into Wine carries the highest TrackWiz rating in Race 8 at 88.83 and opens at 9/5 — the market and the model are in agreement here. Rocco Bowen gets the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and Water Into Wine posts a 30% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53. At a mile on dirt, horses with top ratings and proven winning habits tend to deliver, and this one checks all the boxes for a confident top selection.

place2Teaching MomentML 9/2

Teaching Moment is the most fascinating horse on the entire card — a 75% career win rate is an eye-popping figure that demands attention, and her TrackWiz rating of 84.42 confirms she belongs. Trainer David Wolochuk puts Chelsey Keiser aboard at 9/2, and her average speed of 54 actually leads the field. The reason she's the place pick rather than the win pick comes down to the model's edge for Water Into Wine, but Teaching Moment is live at this price and dangerous over a mile.

show3Jac's Doe MakerML 6/1

Jac's Doe Maker brings a 60% career win rate to the gate — second only to Teaching Moment in this field — and that kind of strike rate from a horse at 6/1 is worth a hard look in exotics. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Ivan Vazquez, and Jac's Doe Maker's average speed of 53 is consistent with the top contenders. She may be third in the ratings but her winning pedigree suggests she can fire on any given day.

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Eight races, a quick Thistledown dirt track, and some legitimate angles in both the sprint and route divisions — today's card has the makings of a solid Thursday at the window. Hardway Mike, Gunner Gabriel, and Isa Fortress are your free best bets to kick things off. For the full card including Water Into Wine, Tia Lupe, and our exotic ticket strategies, subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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