You're reading 3 of 8 races free
Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.
Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026
It's a pleasant Wednesday afternoon at Thistledown — partly cloudy skies, 79°F, and conditions that should keep the dirt track playing honest all day. No weather excuses tonight, which means the horses that belong on top should get there.
We've got an 8-race card to break down, mixing Maiden Special Weights, Allowance company, and a pair of Starter Optional Claiming routes that always draw some interesting dropdowns and class manipulators. There's plenty to dig into across all conditions and distances.
TrackWiz analysis covers all 8 races — the first three are on us, and Races 4 through 8 are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A Starter Optional Claiming mile on the dirt where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear two-horse story at the top, but a third runner lurks with the best average speed in the field.
Oliverio earns the top spot on our board with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in this field by a meaningful margin. His 27% career win rate is the best among horses with any meaningful record here, and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra gives him a live pilot at a track where knowing the fair grounds matters. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a price, but he's the most complete horse in the field going a mile on the dirt.
Puff'smagicdragon rates second on our model at 84.65 and figures to be right there at every call with Erik Barbaran in the irons. A 22% career win rate is respectable in this company, and at 7/2 he's a fair each-way price if Oliverio has any vulnerability. He's the logical backup in exacta combinations.
Accona stands out as the show pick thanks to the field's top average speed figure at 54 — a tick above everyone else. Trainer Nery Alvarez sends him out at 6/1 on the morning line, which gives you real value if he fires his typical race. He's the kind of horse worth including underneath in trifectas at a price that beats his true odds.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden sprint where first-time starters and lightly-raced maidens collide, making the pace scenario murky and the form lines thin — but one horse separates himself sharply on our ratings.
Dream Boy is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 83.08 — nearly 25 points clear of the next-rated horse in the field. He carries a 53 average speed figure (tied for best in the race) and trainer Yoni R. Orantes sends him out with Victor R. Fernandez up at a favorable morning line of 5/2. In a wide-open maiden field, that kind of ratings edge is exactly what you want to anchor your ticket.
Paul Ralph drew the morning line favorite's odds at 2/1 under trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also saddles the Race 1 horse. The curiosity here is that his average speed figure is not available, meaning this may be a first-out runner whose morning works have the connections bullish. In maiden races, trainer confidence — reflected in that low morning line — often tells you something the form lines can't.
Bay Ja Blue matches Dream Boy for the top average speed figure in the field at 53 and earned a 55.83 TrackWiz rating, making him the third-best-rated horse in the race. Trainer Jacinto Lopez puts Mauro Cedillo on board at 7/2, giving you a nice price on a horse with legitimate speed metrics. He's the natural show horse and worth a spot in trifecta coverage.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Markaway draws near-even money in a maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs, and the TrackWiz model backs the crowd — though Cleatus and Jace make this more than a one-horse race on paper.
Markaway enters as the morning line even-money choice and our model agrees emphatically, posting the field's top rating of 90.00. He also carries the best average speed figure in the race at 52, and Jason Simpson — a capable pilot — gets the call. In maiden claiming company, a horse this dominant on the ratings sheet at an even-money price is as close to a structured play as you'll find at this level.
Cleatus sits second on our ratings at 67.35 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line with Alejandro Gomez, Jr. up for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza. His 51 average speed figure is solid for this level, and at that price he's the natural exacta partner with Markaway. If the favorite stumbles at the break or gets caught in traffic, Cleatus has the profile to capitalize.
Jace rates third in the field at 55.44 despite being posted at 5/2, making him the second choice on the morning line — a slight disconnect worth noting. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Susan D. Yoder, and the Skerrett family (Jefferson also trains in this barn circuit) has a comfort level navigating Thistledown's main track. He's solid underneath in all exotic combinations.
The free portion of today's card is loaded with intrigue. Markaway opens at even money in Race 3 and carries our highest rating of the free races — a 90.00 — making that short sprint over 5½ furlongs on dirt the anchor play of the early card. When a horse comes in rated this high and sits at even money on the morning line, you're looking at a horse the market already agrees on. That's alignment worth respecting.
Oliverio draws our attention in the Race 1 mile, while Dream Boy gets the nod in the Race 2 six-furlong maiden sprint at 5/2 on the morning line. With a clean, fast surface expected to hold all afternoon, pace will be premium — horses that can establish position early without burning out should have a real edge in these shorter dirt sprints. Watch how the early splits unfold in Race 1; it could set the tone for reading pace scenarios throughout the card.
Send me tomorrow's free Thistledown card before post time.
Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Today's headline play is Markaway in Race 3 — even money, highest free-race rating on the card, and a surface that should suit. Back it up with Oliverio in Race 1 and Dream Boy in Race 2 for the early trifecta of free best bets. For the full card — including Without Objection in the Race 5 Allowance sprint and our exotic ticket strategy — subscribers have everything they need waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's have a big afternoon at Thistledown.