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Penn National Picks & Predictions — September 4, 2026

September 4, 20269 racesAll Penn National picks

Results are in — see the official Penn National chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 1)→

Happy Friday from Penn National, where a nine-race card kicks off the holiday weekend under cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F. Conditions are about as cooperative as you'll get in early September — no rain concerns today, and that turf course should be playing true after a dry stretch.

What makes today's slate interesting is the split personality of the card. The first three races all go on the turf at a mile or longer, giving us a nice run of grass form to dig into before the card shifts to dirt for the back half. That kind of surface transition is exactly where sharp bettors can find an edge — and where casual fans can get tripped up.

TrackWiz has analysis on all nine races, with Races 1, 2, and 3 available free to every reader. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A maiden claimer on the turf with zero career wins across the board — the TrackWiz ratings tell the story here, with Lady of Lords holding a commanding edge over a field that's still searching for its first ticket to the winner's circle.

win6Lady of LordsML 2/1

Lady of Lords tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — a full 11 points clear of the next best in the field — and that kind of margin in a maiden field is hard to ignore. She's the morning line favorite at 2/1, meaning the market agrees this is her race to lose. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the call, and the mile-plus turf trip at 1 mi 70 yds suits a horse with her profile. In wide-open maiden company where no one has broken their maiden yet, the class edge here is real.

place2Lil Miss PerfectML 5/1

Lil Miss Perfect posts the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 77.46 and edges out a slight speed advantage with an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the top mark in the race. At 5/1 on the morning line, trainer Kevin C. Boniface has her priced as a live longshot, and she makes tremendous sense underneath as a place play. If Lady of Lords falters, Lil Miss Perfect looks like the most natural alternative.

show1Wanting AttentionML 3/1

Wanting Attention checks in at 68.25 on the TrackWiz scale — third-best in the field — and draws the rail under Bryan L. Torres, which on a turf course at this distance can be a legitimate advantage. She's listed at 3/1, making her a fair price for show purposes. As a hedge in your exotics, she rounds out the top three nicely.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

This turf claimer is stacked with horses in a tight rating cluster at the top — Tallahatchiebridge, Keithsendshelloooo, and Take Me To Church are all within three points of each other — setting up a genuinely competitive mile that could produce a big exacta or trifecta payout.

win1TallahatchiebridgeML 6/1

Tallahatchiebridge owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 and goes with David Cora, who brings a steady hand to the turf. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value play — the market is underrating a horse that our analysis puts at the head of the class. A career win rate of 8% in claiming company isn't flashy, but the speed and rating profile suggest a horse capable of stepping up today.

place5KeithsendshellooooML 4/1

Keithsendshelloooo rates second in the field at 81.18 and carries a 13% career win rate into a race where consistency matters. What makes this horse interesting underneath is the 4/1 morning line — he's priced like a mid-tier contender but sits just off the top of our ratings. Jomar Torres aboard gives him a capable pilot for the turf mile, and he's a strong place contender in a bunched field.

show10Take Me To ChurchML 4/1

Take Me To Church brings the best career win percentage among the top three rated horses at 15%, which speaks to a horse that knows how to finish. At 4/1 with trainer Gregory D. Sacco — a barn that travels with intent — this one fits neatly as a show play or bottom of a trifecta. The rating of 80.07 holds up well in this spot.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Brockton looks like a standout on paper in this Starter Optional Claimer, but the pace scenario on a full turf field of ten could get complicated, and West Mountain's eye-popping 50% career win rate deserves at least a second look.

win10BrocktonML 3/1

Brockton is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the best in the field by more than 15 points — and the 3/1 morning line from trainer Brandon L. Kulp's barn reflects the market's respect for this horse. An average speed figure of 55 is the highest in the race, and a 12% career win rate in optional claiming company shows he can get it done. Angel R. Rodriguez takes the mount, a strong jockey-trainer pairing that wins races together.

place5RoxtonML 9/2

Roxton comes in rated 71.94 — second-best in this field — and sports a 9/2 morning line that makes him an attractive place play in a race where Brockton figures to attract heavy action. An average speed of 54 and a 10% career win rate in similar conditions keep him very much in the mix for the runner-up spot. Noel Herman has the call and knows this track.

show7Mister WoodfordML 4/1

Mister Woodford slots in at a 67.41 TrackWiz rating with a 12% career win rate, and at 4/1 morning line, he's a solid underneath play. Wilfredo Corujo is a capable hand on the turf, and this horse's speed figure of 54 ties Roxton for second-best in the race. In a deep optional claimer, he's a reasonable show bet and a legitimate trifecta piece.

Our free coverage kicks off with the turf trifecta to open the day. Lady of Lords headlines Race 1 — a Maiden Claiming mile-plus on the turf — with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 at a fair 2/1 morning line. She's our most confident free pick of the day. Race 2 is where we think there's some real money to be made: Tallahatchiebridge opens at 6/1 in a Turf Claiming mile, and our analysis shows a rating of 82.71 that could translate to serious overlay value if the public overlooks him. Don't let that price scare you off — that's the point. In Race 3, Brockton draws our top rating of the free races at 87.08 in a Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf, posted at 3/1. With three consecutive turf miles to open the card, pace scenario and grass form cycle smoothly — horses with back class on the green should have a natural advantage early.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The favorites don't line up with the TrackWiz ratings in this dirt claimer — the morning line chalk Bravo Kitten is our place pick, not our top selection — creating a potential overlay situation that savvy bettors should explore.

win5Special AffairML 8/1

Special Affair is our top selection at 8/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay if the ratings hold up. She posts a 79.79 TrackWiz rating, best in the field, and David Cora knows how to ride a pace scenario on dirt. A 6% career win rate sounds modest, but in a field where her raw rating stands apart, the price makes this one of the most compelling win plays on the card today. Trainer Kevin J. Fields placing her at 8/1 suggests the barn may be playing coy.

place6Bravo KittenML 2/1

Bravo Kitten is the morning line 2/1 favorite and rates second on our scale at 74.08 — meaning the market is high on her but our analysis puts her just a notch below Special Affair. Angel R. Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, a combo that shows up ready on Penn dirt. At 2/1, she's not a value win play, but she's a logical place selection given her profile and connections.

show4LachicafortequilaML 9/2

Lachicafortequila rates 71.50 — third in the field — and carries a 15% career win rate that's the best among the top three picks in this race. At 9/2, there's value in slotting her in for show or as the bottom leg of an exacta. Jomar Torres is sharp on the dirt, and trainer Brandon L. Kulp doubles up in this race, which adds an interesting barn dynamic.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A compact five-horse sprint at six furlongs on dirt, and two horses — Diamond Essence and Dakota Springs — sit well above the rest of the field on the TrackWiz scale, setting up a likely duel with the remaining trio as spectators.

win5Diamond EssenceML 5/2

Diamond Essence tops this short field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — highest in the race — making her the most complete profile in the field. At 5/2 morning line, Ricardo Chiappe takes the mount for trainer George R. Albright in what looks like a solid spot. Her 9% career win rate won't wow you, but in a five-horse race where she's the class of the field on our numbers, the probability math works out nicely.

place2Dakota SpringsML 9/5

Dakota Springs is right on Diamond Essence's heels at 86.43 and brings the strongest career win percentage in the field at 21% — that's a horse who hits the board consistently. At 9/5, she's the public's choice, and for good reason. Angel R. Rodriguez has the mount for Wayne Potts, and this horse is a near-lock for the place spot even if Diamond Essence gets there first.

show3Kentucky ReignML 4/1

Kentucky Reign is a significant step back on the ratings at 41.82, but with only five horses in the field, someone has to fill the show spot. A 4/1 morning line price gives her some appeal as a trifecta filler, and an average speed of 53 matches the mid-tier horses. She's in the exotics as a practical matter more than a strong handicapping conviction.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Uncle Money looks like the dominant force in this five-horse Starter Optional Claimer — a top rating and an eye-catching career win percentage make him the horse everyone else has to beat at six furlongs on the Penn dirt.

win1Uncle MoneyML 9/5

Uncle Money is a standout selection here: 88.83 TrackWiz rating, the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, and an astonishing 50% career win rate that speaks for itself. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser sends him out as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and the jockey Angel Cruz should have him in a good spot stalking the pace. In a five-horse sprint, a horse with this profile at this price is a play — the only question is whether 9/5 offers enough overlay to go heavy.

place2Strawberry TreatML 5/2

Strawberry Treat rates second in this field at 71.58 and carries a 19% career win rate into the race — a solid horse who should be in the mix for the place spot at a reasonable 5/2 price. Inoel Beato gets the call for trainer Michael Zalalas, and an average speed of 55 keeps her competitive with the top horse on raw figures. She's the clear logical underneath play in the exotics.

show4Diamond HeistML 9/2

Diamond Heist comes in at 57.52 on the TrackWiz scale with a 22% career win rate — the second-best career win percentage in the field. At 9/2, she offers decent show value in a shallow five-horse field. Trainer Miguel A. Rodriguez doubles up in this race with two horses, and Jesus M. Rios takes the mount on the more interesting of the two.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This Allowance Optional Claimer at 1 1/16 miles on dirt pits a well-priced public horse against a TrackWiz top selection going off at 5/1 — Brighty is the value angle in a race where the market may be underestimating him.

win5BrightyML 5/1

Brighty tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 — more than five points clear of J D Factor — yet goes off at 5/1 while the public makes J D Factor the 9/5 chalk. That kind of discrepancy is exactly where TrackWiz analysis finds value. Martin Chuan gets the mount for Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon, and while a 12% career win rate doesn't scream dominant, the rating edge at this price point makes Brighty our top win selection in what looks like an underbet spot.

place2J D FactorML 9/5

J D Factor is the morning line favorite at 9/5 for a reason — a 78.64 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate show a horse that competes and hits the board regularly. Trainer Jamie Ness and jockey Jaime Rodriguez combine for a sharp connection, and even if Brighty edges him out, J D Factor's profile screams place horse. Don't leave him out of your exotics.

show4Wyoming ClassML 7/2

Wyoming Class has a 33% career win rate — the second-highest in this field — which tells you this horse has shown an ability to win in spots like this. At 7/2 on the morning line, trainer Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. has him competitive, and Jose R. Betancourt navigates the 1 1/16 mile trip. The rating of 71.07 keeps him within reach of the top two, making him a logical show play and trifecta piece.

Race 8

1:08 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden dirt mile with a clear top horse on the TrackWiz scale, but the value angle is in the place spot — Abitofsandy at 8/1 offers a legitimate overlay underneath if Crown Apple handles the pace scenario.

win5Crown AppleML 5/2

Crown Apple is the class of this maiden field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — more than 26 points ahead of the next best horse — and Ricardo Chiappe takes the mount for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, a barn that clearly likes this spot. At 5/2, the market respects him, and when a horse dominates a maiden field on raw ratings this thoroughly, fading him is a losing long-term play. He's the horse to beat, full stop.

place2AbitofsandyML 8/1

Abitofsandy represents a genuine value angle at 8/1 on the morning line — she rates second in the field at 61.64 but is priced like a longshot. Inoel Beato gets the call for Ricardo A. Murillo's barn, and in a maiden field where no one has a win on their résumé, second-best on the ratings is worth a place wager at this price. She's the primary value play in this race.

show3Johnny MacML 5/1

Johnny Mac and Louisville Liam are tied at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale, but Johnny Mac gets the nod at show given we have an actual average speed figure to work with — Louisville Liam's speed data is missing entirely, adding uncertainty. David Cora rides for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, who already has the top horse in the race, and a second entry in the same barn can sometimes benefit from tactical knowledge. Johnny Mac at 5/1 is a reasonable show play.

Race 9

1:37 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An eight-horse dirt mile closing out the card with a clear top two on the TrackWiz scale — Gun Right and Solar Glare hold a meaningful edge — but Makabim at 5/1 sneaks in as a live show contender with career numbers that hold up.

win3Gun RightML 7/2

Gun Right leads this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate, going at 7/2 on the morning line — fair value for the top-rated horse. Yabriel O. Ramos has the mount for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, who also saddles the top pick in Race 8 and clearly has horses ready on this card. An average speed of 52 is modest, but in an eight-horse claiming field at a mile, positioning and class matter as much as raw speed.

place7Solar GlareML 5/2

Solar Glare rates 79.70 — second-best in the field — and is the morning line 5/2 second choice, meaning the public is tracking this one closely. Edwin Gonzalez takes the mount for Paulina Sinnefia's barn, and a 13% career win rate in claiming company suggests a horse that competes consistently. At 5/2, the place payoff won't be thrilling, but Solar Glare is a logical underneath play if Gun Right gets the win.

show2MakabimML 5/1

Makabim comes in at 77.53 on the TrackWiz scale with a 14% career win rate and a 5/1 morning line — solid value for a show ticket. Trainer Cody Beattie doubles up in this race with Spinning Musician as well, and Inoel Beato takes a live mount in Makabim. In a race where the top two are well established, Makabim at 5/1 is a reasonable hedge and a legitimate trifecta piece.

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Penn National is serving up a fun nine-race card to kick off the long weekend — turf action early, dirt battles to close it out, and at least two spots where we think the public will leave real value on the table. Lady of Lords and Brockton headline our free plays, while Uncle Money is the horse we're most excited about on the full card. As always, manage your bankroll and enjoy the races. Full analysis — including pace projections, exotics, and our complete ratings — is available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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