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Penn National Picks & Predictions — September 3, 2026

September 3, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Results are in — see the official Penn National chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 7)→

Happy Thursday from Penn National, where a 7-race card is set to go postward under partly cloudy skies and a warm 86°F afternoon. The heat shouldn't be a factor for the horses, but it's worth keeping an eye on how the dirt plays as the day progresses — footing can shift in late-summer conditions like these, and pace scenarios can flip in a hurry.

Today's card is a nice mix of conditions: two turf allowances to kick things off, a maiden special weight on the dirt, a pair of claiming routes, a maiden claimer going long, and a sharp 6-furlong dirt sprint to close it out. Whether you're here for the turf openers or sticking around for the premium races later in the card, there's plenty to dig into.

Three races are fully unlocked for everyone, and our TrackWiz analysis is pointing at some solid plays across the board. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint with a clear top two on the TrackWiz ratings, but Pageant Princess brings the highest career win percentage in the field and could make this a three-way battle at the wire.

win2Whiskey LullabyML 5/2

Whiskey Lullaby owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and draws in at 5/2 on the morning line — right where she belongs. Her 17% career win rate is solid for this level, and with Emilio Flores in the irons, she has a capable pilot for a short turf sprint. The 5-furlong distance on grass tends to reward horses that can get out clean and sustain their run, and Whiskey Lullaby's profile suggests she can do exactly that. She's our best bet in Race 1.

place4QuercusML 5/2

Quercus sits just behind Whiskey Lullaby on ratings (81.81) and matches her on average speed figures, but it's his 20% career win rate — the second-best in the field — that really catches the eye. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser keeps him sharp, and Edwin Gonzalez knows this horse's tendencies. He's a logical place ticket in a race where the top two rated horses are separated by less than 6 points.

show5Pageant PrincessML 7/2

Pageant Princess brings a 24% career win rate — tops in this field — and her average speed figure of 57 edges out most of the competition. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has a horse that clearly knows how to win, even if the TrackWiz rating of 71.35 slots her third in our model. At 7/2, she's a fair price for exotics and a reasonable show anchor.

Race 2

10:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

One horse stands above the field on the ratings sheet, but a pair of live challengers make this turf mile more than a one-horse race — pace and positioning off the far turn will be decisive.

win5Xmas in CairoML 2/1

Xmas in Cairo is our top-rated horse in Race 2 at 88.54 and goes postward as the morning line favorite at 2/1. Her average speed figure of 55 leads the field, and an 18% career win rate speaks to a horse that delivers when conditions are right. Trainer Bernard G. Dunham sends her out with Andrew Wolfsont up, and the one-mile turf distance should suit her stamina profile well. She's the clear top choice and we're not fading her.

place3Quiet CityML 7/2

Quiet City comes in rated 80.40 with a 33% career win rate — by far the best strike rate in this field. Trainer Elisha Perez has her dialed in, and Angel R. Quinones gets the call. Her average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and horses with that kind of winning history rarely run bad at a mile on grass. She's a strong place play and could easily flip the result on the win.

show2Cynthia GailML 3/1

Cynthia Gail sits third on the ratings at 74.81 and boasts a 28% career win rate, which tells you she's no stranger to the winner's circle. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp is a name that appears multiple times on this card — and that consistency suggests a barn in form. At 3/1, she's not a huge price, but she rounds out a competitive exotic ticket in a race with legitimate top-three depth.

Race 3

10:48 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight on dirt at six furlongs — the full field is looking for a first win, which means raw talent and trainer acumen matter more than proven form; one runner is a significant cut above on our model.

win2Smokin Hot WifeML 2/1

Smokin Hot Wife tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 88.54 and is installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite — a signal that the market agrees with our model. Trainer Jacinto Solis sends her out with Joezer Rangel, a combination worth tracking on this card. In maiden races, horses with strong early ratings that reflect works and breeding tend to outperform, and Smokin Hot Wife's separation from the rest of the field is notable. She's a confident win selection.

place4I'm UnstoppableML 3/1

I'm Unstoppable (No. 4) grades second in our ratings at 56.67 and carries an average speed figure of 54 — modest but competitive for a six-furlong dirt maiden. Trainer Charles A. DeMario has Angel Moreno in the irons, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public is aware of this one's chances. She's a logical place piece in a race where the favorite is vulnerable to first-time debut unknowns.

show1Aunt NanML 4/1

Aunt Nan at 4/1 rounds out our show selection with a 55.00 rating and a 53 average speed figure — near the middle of the pack, but trained by Konstantinos Harigeorgiou who also conditions Eddie's Promise in this race. Running two horses in the same maiden field can be a deliberate tactical move, and Aunt Nan's rating gives her the edge over her stablemate. She's a sensible show anchor for the exotics at a fair price.

Our three free races today cover a real range of race shapes. Whiskey Lullaby (5/2 morning line, Race 1) gets us started on the turf at five furlongs — a short, sharp sprint where early position is everything. Right behind her, Xmas in Cairo (2/1, Race 2) stretches things out to a mile on the grass, a completely different test. Then we shift to the dirt for Race 3, where Smokin Hot Wife (2/1) takes on a maiden special weight field at six furlongs — a race our ratings peg as one of the more competitive early on the card.

All three free picks carry TrackWiz ratings in the 87–89 range, which signals genuine confidence without overreaching. The turf rail condition and any bias that develops early in the day could be particularly meaningful for Races 1 and 2 — watch those first few turf runs closely before finalizing your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This is a premium-content race — unlock the full analysis below — but the TrackWiz model has found a heavy lean here, with one horse rated nearly 16 points clear of the second-best in the field.

win5Coach KrivML 2/1

Coach Kriv is the standout selection in Race 4 with a commanding 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tops in this claiming field by a significant margin. His 28% career win rate is the best in the race, and trainer Brandon L. Kulp once again saddles a live contender with Angel R. Rodriguez up. The 2/1 morning line makes him the chalk, but the separation in our ratings suggests the price could be on the short side. This is a confident play on dirt at a route distance where his form sets up well.

place1MaupansantML 3/1

Maupansant grades second in the field at 72.08 and notches a 12% career win rate — respectable for the claiming ranks. Trainer Caitlin Keil has him in with Kevin Gomez, and the 3/1 morning line is a fair reflection of his chances behind a strong favorite. His 54 average speed figure matches several rivals, meaning he has the raw ability to be competitive for second. He's the logical backup in the exacta.

show2AtomicoML 5/1

Atomico at 5/1 is worth including in the show position and exotics. He rates at 57.46, sits third in the field on our model, and his 54 average speed figure matches the place horse. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe Jr. deploys Yabriel O. Ramos in a five-horse field where the margins can be tight. In a short field on a route, it only takes a minor hiccup from the top two for Atomico to collect a check.

Race 5

12:02 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A five-horse allowance at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt where two horses separate from the pack on ratings — but the morning line favorite isn't the one our model likes best, setting up a potential overlay.

win1Bronx BoysML 5/2

Bronx Boys tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite being installed at 5/2 — not 9/5 like Mister Me — which could represent a mild overlay depending on how the money flows. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp, who is having a banner day on this card, puts Angel R. Rodriguez aboard, a combination that's clicking. His 17% career win rate is lower than a couple of rivals, but the model's confidence is rooted in his overall profile at this distance and surface. If he breaks cleanly and finds a comfortable trip, he's hard to beat.

place5Mister MeML 9/5

Mister Me is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with a solid 77.49 rating and a 28% career win rate — the best in this five-horse field. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton has him sharp with David Cora in the tack, and his 54 average speed figure is in line with the competition. The model has him slotted second, but his win percentage alone makes him dangerous on top and he's a must-use in the exacta.

show3Ortho StarML 9/2

Ortho Star grades third in the field at 63.34 and brings a 24% career win rate to a relatively short field. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has Edwin Gonzalez up — a rider who already has multiple mounts on tonight's card. His 55 average speed figure actually leads this field, and in a small five-horse spot at a longer route distance, closers with tactical speed can pick up pieces. At 9/2, he offers reasonable show value for exotic tickets.

Race 6

12:30 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming affair going a mile and 70 yards — none of these horses have won before, but the TrackWiz model finds a significant overlay hidden in the morning line with the top-rated horse sitting at 5/1.

win3Tiz AwesomeML 5/1

Tiz Awesome is our top selection in Race 6 at 84.17 — but the morning line has her at 5/1, making her arguably the best value on the card. In a field of maidens, that kind of rating gap matters enormously. Trainer Rory K. Huston puts Ramon F. Moya up, and the extra distance of a mile and 70 yards on dirt could actually suit a horse that's been building toward this spot. Her 53 average speed figure is competitive, and the price makes her a must-play win bet.

place5Miss Mo MagicML 9/2

Miss Mo Magic rates at 76.11 — second in the field — and also comes from the Jacinto Solis barn, which has multiple runners active on this card. Francisco Martinez gets the call at 9/2, and for a horse with a 53 average speed figure going routes, she sets up well for a place finish behind our top pick. In a five-horse maiden field, the top two rated horses finishing one-two is a very playable outcome.

show1Beau HillML 3/1

Beau Hill heads into this race as the 3/1 morning line second choice, but our model actually slots him third at 64.62 — behind Tiz Awesome and Miss Mo Magic. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia has Edwin Gonzalez aboard, a rider who's been active all card long. His 54 average speed figure is the highest in this field, which suggests raw pace ability, and at the longer distance he may be able to sustain that into a show spot. He's a fine exotics inclusion.

Race 7

12:58 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field six-furlong dirt claiming sprint to close the card — one horse is a cut above on the TrackWiz model, and the pace scenario in a five-horse field should give the top pick room to control the race from the front.

win1Amusing MischiefML 8/5

Amusing Mischief is our top-rated horse on the entire card at 89.12, and she's installed as the 8/5 morning line favorite for good reason. Her 24% career win rate and 55 average speed figure both lead this field, and trainer Brandon L. Kulp — who has been a dominant presence across tonight's program — sends her out with Angel R. Rodriguez, the same rider who's been winning with this barn all card. Six furlongs on dirt is a sharp fit for a horse with these speed figures, and in a five-horse field she should get an uncomplicated trip. She's our top play to close out the card.

place4Lafitte's FleetML 4/1

Lafitte's Fleet rates at 62.15 and sits second in this small field, with an 11% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure that keeps him competitive. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts David Cora up — a rider who's had his hands on multiple horses tonight — and the 4/1 morning line is a fair price for a horse that figures to battle for second behind a heavy favorite. He's a logical place piece and exacta partner with Amusing Mischief.

show5ValoreML 9/2

Valore comes in third on the TrackWiz model at 51.63 with a 9% career win rate — the numbers aren't flashy, but in a five-horse field you only need to beat two horses to collect a show check. Trainer Charles A. DeMario puts Angel Moreno aboard, and Valore's 54 average speed figure matches the place horse. At 9/2 on the morning line, he offers reasonable show value in a card-closing sprint where anything can happen.

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Bottom line: Penn National is serving up a quality 7-race Thursday card with legit plays scattered throughout. Whiskey Lullaby, Xmas in Cairo, and Smokin Hot Wife headline the free selections, while Amusing Mischief — our top-rated horse on the entire card — anchors the premium side. Get the full picture, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns with a TrackWiz subscription. Good luck out there — bet smart.

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