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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday afternoon at Fairmount Park — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 70°F mean the dirt track should be playing fast and true. No weather excuses today. Eight races on the board, all on the main track, and TrackWiz has you covered from first post to last.

The card leans heavily on sprint distances, with four races going at 6 furlongs or less. That sets up a speed-favoring pace scenario throughout the afternoon — horses that can get out and establish position early figure to be tough to run down. Keep that in mind when you're building tickets.

There's a nice mix of maiden claimers, straight claimers, and allowance-optional claimers, which means class dynamics are going to matter just as much as raw speed figures today. Let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where one horse towers over the field on paper — the question is whether the chalk lives up to the hype or leaves the door open for a sneaky exacta.

win3Richochet RickML 1/2

Richochet Rick is the clear class of this maiden field, drawing a dominant TrackWiz rating of 90 — nearly 15 points clear of the next competitor. Trainer Heather Irion sends him out with Felix Vasquez Jr. in the irons, a solid pairing for a horse priced at 1/2 on the morning line. His average speed figure of 53 matches the top of this field, and in a race full of first-time or lightly raced maidens, that combination of speed and rating is tough to overcome. Barring a complete disaster in the gate, he should be controlling this race.

place7Tap the PrizeML 9/2

Tap the Prize at 9/2 is the logical exacta partner for the favorite, posting a TrackWiz rating of 74.78 — the second-highest in the field by a meaningful margin. Emmanuel Giles gets the call for trainer Anthony Blea III, and while career win percentage is not a factor in a maiden field, the speed figure of 52 keeps him competitive. If Richochet Rick hits any traffic or has a troubled trip, Tap the Prize is positioned to make bettors very happy.

show1IncorporatedML 5/1

Incorporated draws post one with Harold Joseph Ortega and carries a solid 72.03 rating under trainer Omar Razvi — good enough for third-best in this spot. His morning line of 5/1 offers decent show value in a race where the top two are much higher-rated, making him a reasonable exotics anchor for trifecta players looking to fill out the bottom.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Izzy's Monster looks like a standout in a nine-horse claiming route, but a cluster of mid-tier horses with real career win percentages could make the underneath spots interesting.

win7Izzy's MonsterML 7/5

Izzy's Monster enters as the morning line favorite at 7/5, and the numbers back it up — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is well clear of the field, and a 28% career win rate is genuinely impressive for a claiming-level router. Jockey Johanis Aranguren teams with trainer Eduardo Rodriguez, and that combination has the experience to navigate the one-mile-70-yard distance at Fairmount. At the distance, horses with legitimate stamina and proven winning habits tend to sort themselves out, and Izzy's Monster checks both boxes.

place5What's CrackinML 5/2

What's Crackin at 5/2 is the other horse in this race with a 20% career win rate and a rating of 74.79, making her the clear second choice on both the morning line and TrackWiz metrics. Trainer Harry E. Lynch already has Hot Dame in the field, signaling confidence in his barn's form, and Javier Tavares is a capable handler for the distance. She's a natural fit underneath the favorite in exactas.

show8Retail TherapyML 5/1

Retail Therapy is an interesting show play at 5/1, sporting a 74.69 rating that nearly matches What's Crackin. Trainer James M. Watkins sends her out with Alexander Bendezu, and while her 9% career win rate is modest, her speed figure of 53 is competitive with the upper tier of this field. Trifecta players should take note — she's close enough in class to sneak into the money.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Sweet Skylar and Code of Conduct — look well above the rest of this six-furlong claiming field, setting up a potential match race with a couple of live longshots lurking underneath.

win5Sweet SkylarML 8/5

Sweet Skylar tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and is priced at 8/5 on the morning line, a fair reflection of her standing in this spot. Trainer Scott Becker keeps her at six furlongs on dirt, where her average speed figure of 53 is right at the top of this field. Victor Santiago gets the mount, and at 20% career win rate she's a horse who has shown she knows how to finish. This looks like a prime spot for her to go to the lead and never look back.

place1Code of ConductML 5/2

Code of Conduct at 5/2 is the other legitimate contender here, posting an 82.86 rating with Alexander Bendezu up for trainer Pat Clay. An 11% career win rate sounds modest, but in a field this short on quality, his profile stands out. He matches Sweet Skylar on speed at 52 and looks perfectly capable of clearing the field for the place spot if the favorite gets her due at the front.

show6Spicy CantaloupeML 9/5

Spicy Cantaloupe at 9/5 has a morning line that might surprise some bettors — she's essentially co-favorited with Sweet Skylar, yet her TrackWiz rating of 66.78 trails the top two by a significant margin. That said, a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 53 give her enough firepower to hit the board in a thin field. Trainer Harry E. Lynch has her sharp, and Victor Lara is comfortable at Fairmount.

The first three races are free to all TrackWiz readers, and they give us a solid foundation for the card. Richochet Rick opens the day as a heavy morning-line favorite in the maiden claimer at 6 furlongs — a horse with a 90 TrackWiz rating at 1/2 on the morning line is sending a signal, and we're listening. Izzy's Monster stretches out to a mile and 70 yards in Race 2, where our analysis gives that extra ground a chance to unlock something. And Sweet Skylar rounds out the free trio in Race 3, checking in at 8/5 with an 89.12 rating — value isn't screaming, but the profile fits the conditions well.

With a speed-friendly surface expected today, all three free picks project well — each figures to handle the pace scenario in their respective races without being asked an early question they can't answer. If you're parlaying the free races, that pace consistency is a thread worth pulling.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Scott Becker saddles two of the top-rated horses in this allowance optional claiming sprint, and his top barn entry looks like a horse on the rise — but the 2/1 second choice on the morning line could complicate things.

win6Ghaly PosseML 9/5

Ghaly Posse is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 and an eye-catching 33% career win rate — the best winning percentage in the race by a wide margin. Trainer Scott Becker clearly has this horse cranking, and Alexander Bendezu getting the call over the barn's other entrant tells you something about where the stable money likely sits. At 9/5, she's fairly priced against a field where no one else cracks a 70 rating.

place5Ghaaleb's CityML 5/2

Ghaaleb's City is the other Scott Becker runner here, carrying a 69.96 rating and a 22% career win rate into the allowance optional claiming conditions. Victor Santiago keeps the mount, and while he sits behind stablemate Ghaly Posse in the pecking order, a 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects his chances. In a six-furlong sprint, he has enough speed at 54 to be right there at the top of the stretch.

show4JulynneML 2/1

Julynne draws in at 2/1 with a 61.76 rating and a 17% career win rate for trainer Ralph Martinez, with Brody Martinez in the irons. The morning line puts her as the second choice, which might be a touch ambitious compared to the Becker pair, but she's clearly a horse with credentials at this level. In a race with two strong barn entries above her, landing the show spot at a fair price makes her a reasonable trifecta anchor.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Honor Point's 66% career win rate in a six-horse starter optional claiming field makes this look like a near-lock situation, though Jack Sixpack and More Than Destiny are capable of making it interesting.

win2Honor PointML 3/2

Honor Point is one of the more compelling top picks on tonight's card — a 66% career win rate is not a typo, and a TrackWiz rating of 89.27 leads this field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez keeps him sharp and Alexander Bendezu, one of the more active jockeys at Fairmount tonight, gets the call at 3/2. His average speed figure of 54 is matched by several others, but when you combine that with a winning habit this strong, he's the horse to beat in a short six-horse field.

place1Jack SixpackML 3/1

Jack Sixpack at 3/1 makes a strong case for the place slot — he has the highest average speed figure in the field at 55 and carries a 74.72 TrackWiz rating with an 18% career win rate. Trainer Pat Clay is a familiar name at Fairmount, and Angel Ortega Stanley gets the mount out of post one. If Honor Point has any trouble early, Jack Sixpack has the pure speed to make it a real race.

show4More Than DestinyML 5/2

More Than Destiny checks in with a 66.55 rating and a robust 33% career win rate for trainer Pat Clay — notably the same barn as Jack Sixpack, giving Clay a strong double-barreled attack in this race. Alvin Ortiz rides, and at 5/2, the morning line respects her enough to make her a legitimate show play. Her stamina profile and consistent winning percentage give her every reason to hit the board.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Illini Red carries a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating and draws in as a heavy 4/5 favorite in this allowance optional claiming route — but Dream Gold at 6/1 and a pair of 8/1 shots give the exotics some juice.

win3Illini RedML 4/5

Illini Red is the top-rated horse on tonight's entire card, matching Richochet Rick at a maximum 90 TrackWiz score, and yet he goes postward at 4/5 in a more competitive allowance optional claiming field. Trainer Steve Manley sends him with Johanis Aranguren in the irons, and a 33% career win rate at this level backs up the high rating with real-world results. Over the mile-70-yard distance, a horse this gifted should be able to dictate terms or stalk and pounce — either way, he's the one to beat.

place4Dream GoldML 6/1

Dream Gold at 6/1 is a legitimate price play for exacta bettors — a 77.13 rating and a 27% career win rate give him honest credentials against this field. Cory Orm handles the riding duties for trainer Steve Fridley, and with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top of the field, he has the raw numbers to be competitive deep into the route. At morning line 6/1, there's real value if Illini Red has any vulnerability.

show1OnthewayjimmyML 8/1

Onthewayjimmy at 8/1 is a fascinating show play anchored by an extraordinary 42% career win rate — the best in this field by a significant margin. Trainer Scott Becker, who has been active throughout tonight's card, sends him with Alexander Bendezu, and a 62.07 TrackWiz rating is competitive enough to expect a board finish in a field that thins out quickly below the top two. That win percentage says this horse has a knack for closing out races.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Grace Met Cupid draws in as a heavy 2/5 favorite in this five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint, but Averyz Day at 6/1 is legitimately close on the ratings — making the exacta worth constructing carefully.

win4Grace Met CupidML 2/5

Grace Met Cupid is a commanding favorite at 2/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.38, and the Brody Martinez/Ralph Martinez combination is a well-coordinated pairing at this meet. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the best in the field, and while a 16% career win rate isn't flashy, the rating gap over most of this field is significant enough to justify the short price. At five and a half furlongs, early pace will matter — if she gets loose on the lead or stalks cleanly, she should be tough to catch.

place5Averyz DayML 6/1

Averyz Day at 6/1 is the value play of the race — an 82.71 rating trails only the favorite, making this a near-match race at the top, but the morning line gap is significant. Trainer Harry E. Lynch has her positioned well with Victor Lara up, and an 11% career win rate in claiming company doesn't tell the whole story when the raw ratings are this strong. Exacta players pairing her underneath Grace Met Cupid are getting a fair price on a horse who could easily hit the board.

show9Last MoonML 7/1

Last Moon at 7/1 rounds out the picks with a 63.25 rating and a strong 33% career win rate — the best winning percentage in this nine-horse field. Alexander Bendezu aboard for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez is a live combination, and a 54 average speed figure keeps him competitive with the top horses. At 7/1, he's the natural trifecta closer in a race where two horses figure to battle for the top two spots.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The nightcap is a wide-open allowance optional claiming route at a mile-and-a-sixteenth — no dominant favorite in sight, which makes this a handicapper's race and a prime spot for an upset.

win9Zee FireML 9/1

Zee Fire jumps off the page as tonight's best value pick — a 78.33 TrackWiz rating leads this field, and yet she goes postward at 9/1 on the morning line. Alexander Bendezu gets the ride for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and a 14% career win rate in what figures to be a genuinely competitive field is nothing to dismiss. Her average speed figure of 53 is right in the mix, and in a race where the morning line favorite checks in at just 3/1, the odds on Zee Fire represent real overlay potential.

place5Category TenML 3/1

Category Ten at 3/1 is the morning line public choice and carries a 73.48 rating into this tough spot for trainer Marvel U. Straub. An 18% career win rate gives him legitimate credentials, and Johanis Aranguren is comfortable handling distance horses over this mile-plus trip. If Zee Fire fires, Category Ten is the most likely horse running at her in the final furlong.

show3Jack SpratML 5/1

Jack Sprat at 5/1 has a 55.91 rating and a 17% career win rate for trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis, with Reynier Arrieta aboard. In a ten-horse field where the top of the ratings chart is unusually compressed, his number is enough to compete for the show spot. He's a natural trifecta inclusion at a price that rewards you if the top two run their race and he grinds into the money.

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Bottom line: Fairmount is giving us a clean, fast track and a card loaded with pace-dependent sprints. Richochet Rick, Izzy's Monster, and Sweet Skylar are the free best bets to anchor your day. For the full picture — including the Zee Fire longshot angle and our exotic ticket breakdowns — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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