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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a hot one at Fairmount Park today — 93°F under cloudy skies with all 8 races going over the dirt. That kind of late-summer heat can take the starch out of horses that haven't seen a race in a while, and it's the kind of day where pace scenarios matter more than ever. Front-runners that have to work hard early can fade badly in the stretch when it's this warm.

The card mixes maiden claimers, straight claimers, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots to close out the afternoon. There's something for every type of bettor here — from maiden watchers looking for a first-time winner to exotic players hunting multi-race sequences. Our TrackWiz ratings flagged two races at the maximum 90.0 score, which tells you right away where the sharpest angles are hiding.

Three races are open to all readers today, giving everyone a solid foundation before we get into the deeper stuff later on the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer with zero career wins across the board — this is a true fresh-slate sprint where the TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top pair from the rest of the field.

win2Dang It DanML 6/5

Dang It Dan tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.67, the highest mark in this maiden field, and draws the morning line favoritism at 6/5 for good reason. Trainer Scott Becker saddles both top-rated horses today, but Alexander Bendezu gets the call here — a vote of confidence from connections. With an average speed figure of 53 matching the field's best, Dang It Dan should have the raw ability to handle this six-furlong dirt sprint right out of the gate.

place1W W NolanML 9/5

W W Nolan is the stablemate to watch, rated just a single point behind at 58.67 and also handled by trainer Scott Becker. At 9/5 on the morning line, Nolan represents strong value for place tickets — if Dang It Dan runs a big number, the two Becker horses could lock up the exacta. Both posting the same average speed figure of 53 makes this a very close call on pure ability.

show6Instant ClassicML 7/1

Instant Classic is our show play at a tempting 7/1 morning line, posting a TrackWiz rating of 48.39 that puts clear daylight between her and the lower half of the field. Trainer Fernando Bahena has an intriguing double-entry angle in this race, and if the two top Becker runners tangle early, Instant Classic could benefit from a cleaner trip. She's a live exotic option for players looking to build trifecta tickets at value.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite is significantly outrated — this one-miler shapes up as a potential upset spot with a legitimate class standout lurking at a double-digit price.

win3TapinyourbluejeansML 3/1

Tapinyourbluejeans carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 85.55, a meaningful edge over everyone else in this claiming field. Trainer Frank C. Randazzo Jr. sends this one out at a generous 3/1 morning line despite the top marks, and a 21% career win rate backs up the form. The horse's average speed figure of 51 is competitive here, and at a route distance of one mile and 70 yards, the class edge should get stronger as the race unfolds.

place4Lemon Drop ShotML 5/2

Lemon Drop Shot rates second in the field at 80.65 and is sent out by the morning line at 5/2, making the favorite Boogie Bode look vulnerable by comparison. A 12% career win rate is modest, but the horse's average speed of 52 — tied for the field's best — gives trainer Ralph Martinez a live contender at a distance that should suit closers. Lemon Drop Shot is the safe place-ticket anchor in this race.

show2License to StealML 10/1

Here's the value angle: License to Steal rates third overall in the field at 76.88, yet the morning line has this horse at 10/1. That's a significant discrepancy between the TrackWiz number and the crowd's money. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez keeps a horse in contention here with a 9% career win clip, and an average speed of 52 matches the top of the field. License to Steal is a must-use in tri/super tickets at that price.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two standout maiden filly/mare contenders sit well clear of the pack in the ratings — this looks like a two-horse race with a value piece lurking in third.

win2Whitelick RoadML 3/2

Whitelick Road heads our selections with a TrackWiz rating of 87.96, the top mark in a maiden field that otherwise has very few horses cracking the 70s. Trainer Ben Delong has this filly primed at 3/2 on the morning line, and jockey Angel Ortega Stanley takes the mount — a capable pairing for a horse with a clear ratings advantage. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, the distance is short enough that Whitelick Road's raw ability should assert itself before the field has time to regroup.

place1Elsie's LegacyML 4/1

Elsie's Legacy is the natural backup at 4/1, rated 85.62 — just a length and a half behind Whitelick Road in our model. Trainer Frank C. Randazzo Jr. and jockey Javier Tavares make up a sharp pairing, and this filly's average speed of 52 matches the top of the field. If there's any trouble up front for the favorite, Elsie's Legacy is right there to steal the show.

show3AtraxaML 6/1

Atraxa at 6/1 is the show play with a legitimate rating of 72.22 — well ahead of the rest of the field after the top two. Notably, Atraxa actually posts the field's best average speed figure at 53, meaning on a raw pace basis she has tools that the ratings model may not fully capture. Trainer Dennis Higgins and jockey Alexander Bendezu are a workmanlike combo, and Atraxa's presence in exotics at 6/1 makes plenty of sense.

The free portion of today's card covers the first three races, and there's genuine handicapping meat on these bones. Dang It Dan opens the day in a 6-furlong maiden claimer at 6/5 on the morning line — a short price, but our rating of 59.67 reflects just enough uncertainty to keep things interesting. Tapinyourbluejeans is the standout of the free picks in Race 2, drawing a strong 85.55 TrackWiz rating going a route at 3/1, a price that offers real value if the pace sets up right going a mile and 70 yards. Then Whitelick Road closes out the free card in Race 3 with the highest rating of the trio at 87.96, making a short 5½-furlong sprint look very much in reach at 3/2.

On a hot, potentially tiring surface like today's, watch for horses with early tactical speed that can sit just off a contested pace — especially in the route races. The 93°F heat adds a stamina premium that could separate closers from front-runners as the card wears on.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A heavy morning line favorite dominates the ratings but faces a couple of live contenders who could make this more interesting than the chalk suggests — a pace duel in the middle of the pack may set up a closer.

win1Cutlass KingML 4/5

Cutlass King is the class of this claiming field with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 90 and heads out at 4/5 on the morning line. Trainer Harry E. Lynch has this horse in peak form, and Victor Lara gets the call from the rail. A 15% career win rate may sound modest, but the horse's average speed of 52 is right there with the best in the field over 1 1/16 miles — a route distance where Cutlass King's overall quality should gradually pull away.

place7RumblingML 7/1

Rumbling is an interesting secondary play at 7/1, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 76.75 that puts this horse clearly third-best in the field — but the 17% career win rate is the real hook here. Trainer Maximino Quinonez deploys Alexander Bendezu, arguably one of the sharper jockey-trainer links on the card today. Against a heavy favorite at a generous price, Rumbling is a strong place play in exactas and trifectas.

show3Two Step JakeML 3/1

Two Step Jake checks in at 74.58 on the TrackWiz scale and posts a strong 21% career win rate — the best among our top three picks in Race 4. Trainer Jessica Jelinski has this horse sharp enough to compete in a claiming route, and jockey Ademar Santos has experience navigating horses through longer trips. At 3/1 on the morning line, Two Step Jake is solid show insurance and a natural trifecta key.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dominant favourite commands this five-and-a-half furlong sprint, but there's a legitimate value story unfolding behind the chalk that makes the exotics worth exploring.

win7Summer of MischiefML 2/5

Summer of Mischief is simply the class of this field — a TrackWiz rating of 90 and a morning line of 2/5 say everything you need to know. Trainer Scott Becker and jockey Alexander Bendezu are one of the sharper combos on the grounds, and a 13% career win rate in claiming company suggests this horse is well placed. The 5½-furlong distance is well within range for a horse averaging 54 on speed — expect Summer of Mischief to run to the front early and hold.

place8BethyML 10/1

Bethy is the value play behind the heavy favorite at 10/1, rating at 65.12 — the clear second-best mark in a field where most others are clustered well below. Trainer Frank C. Randazzo Jr. runs a second horse in this field (Midnight's Girl), which adds some intrigue, but Bethy draws jockey Javier Tavares and carries a 12% career win rate that's competitive in this spot. If Summer of Mischief has any trouble, Bethy is in pole position to collect.

show4Alternative GraceML 8/1

Alternative Grace checks in at 56.28 and boasts an eye-catching 29% career win rate — the highest among all horses in this race. Trainer Harry E. Lynch has this mare fit enough to compete, and Victor Lara from the inside posts is a serviceable pilot. The 8/1 morning line offers real show value in a race where the pace should set up for horses coming from just off the speed.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A deep nine-horse claiming route with no runaway favourite and genuine spread across the top four ratings — the pace scenario could be crucial over a mile and 70 yards of Fairmount dirt.

win3Sound of VictoryML 2/1

Sound of Victory leads our picks with a TrackWiz rating of 79.34, the field's highest mark, while going off at a fair 2/1 morning line. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends this horse out with jockey Ademar Santos, who has handled multiple route trips at this meeting. A 17% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 — tied for the field's best — give Sound of Victory a clear profile as a horse that can both run early and sustain it around two turns.

place7City of GodML 10/1

City of God is the standout value in this race at 10/1 on the morning line despite posting a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — essentially matching Sound of Victory in quality. Trainer Gene J. Sandrowski gives Felix Vasquez Jr. the mount, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company is honest. If the pace gets hot early between the chalk and the field, City of God has the rating to swoop in late at a very generous price.

show8Sponge BathML 5/2

Sponge Bath goes as the second choice at 5/2 and rates 72.98 — the field's third-best mark — with the highest average speed figure in the race at 54. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Frank Reyes have worked together before, and a 16% career win rate in this company is encouraging. Sponge Bath is the natural show anchor for any trifecta structure, bridging the gap between the top two contenders and the mid-field.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A razor-thin Allowance Optional Claiming sprint with three legitimate contenders separated by less than a point at the top of the ratings — this could be a genuine three-way photo.

win9Lady EliseML 2/1

Lady Elise tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and goes off at 2/1 on the morning line, a price that reflects her credentials without making her impossible to beat. Trainer Mark J. Cristel sends her out with Frank Reyes, and a 33% career win rate is the kind of number you want to see in an allowance spot — this mare knows how to get the job done. Her average speed of 54 ties the field's best, and at six furlongs she should have plenty of opportunity to establish position early.

place6Disguised DevilML 9/5

Disguised Devil is separated from Lady Elise by just 0.44 rating points at 88.10, making this essentially a photo finish in the model. Trainer Larry Rivelli doubles up with Biagoddess in this race, and deploying Alexander Bendezu on Disguised Devil is a clear signal of which one connections prefer. A 23% career win rate is strong, and the 9/5 morning line means place tickets on Disguised Devil carry solid value if Lady Elise runs her down.

show2BiagoddessML 4/1

Biagoddess is the third leg of this trio at 4/1 with a rating of 81.35 — a meaningful step below the top two but clearly ahead of the rest of the field. The remarkable stat here is a 75% career win rate, which stands out as extraordinary and suggests this mare has operated at a high level relative to her competition. Trainer Larry Rivelli runs both Biagoddess and Disguised Devil, and jockey Julio E. Felix holds the reins — Biagoddess is a strong show ticket and trifecta piece.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full twelve-horse Allowance Optional Claiming sprint that looks like a two-horse race at the top of the ratings, with a pair of value horses lurking in double-digit territory that could scramble the exotics.

win5ItdontcomeeasyML 5/2

Itdontcomeeasy sits at the top of the TrackWiz ratings with an 87.81 score, the class of a wide field in this 5½-furlong allowance sprint. Trainer Scott Becker — who has had his horses firing throughout this card — gives Victor Santiago the call, a jockey who knows this horse's needs. A 25% career win rate is exceptional for this level, and an average speed figure of 53 gives Itdontcomeeasy the speed profile to sit just off the pace and close it down in the stretch.

place3Fight the PowerML 8/1

Fight the Power brings a 71.03 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate into this race, matching Itdontcomeeasy's win clip despite the wide gap in morning line odds. Trainer Elias Lopez sends this horse out with Frank Reyes, who gets around Fairmount's tight turns well, and the average speed figure of 54 is the best in the entire field — meaning Fight the Power could be the one who sets or pressures the pace. At 8/1, there's real place-ticket value here.

show10Ciao TommasoML 7/1

Ciao Tommaso lands in our show spot with a 65.24 TrackWiz rating and a 7/1 morning line — a fair price for a horse that rates third-best in a crowded field. Trainer Brian Cook and jockey Alexander Bendezu (who has a busy book today) team up here, and a 12% career win rate in allowance company is respectable. In a 12-horse field where pace chaos is a real possibility, Ciao Tommaso offers solid show and trifecta value from a program number that gives positional options.

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Today's Fairmount card is tighter than it looks on paper, with the afternoon heat likely playing a real role in how the late races unfold. Whitelick Road is our top free-card play, while Cutlass King and Summer of Mischief headline a premium slate worth digging into. Get the full analysis — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all eight races — with a TrackWiz Premium subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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