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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 28, 2026

August 28, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Results are in — see the official Penn National chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 7)→

Happy Friday at Penn National. Clear skies, 79°F, and firm footing — conditions don't get much cleaner than this for a late-August card, and the turf course in particular should be playing fast today. Seven races are on the board, and there's enough variety in conditions and surface to keep things interesting from the first post all the way through the finale.

We've got a mix of dirt sprints, turf routes, and a maiden claiming affair sprinkled in — the kind of card where pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race and knowing which horses can adapt is half the battle. TrackWiz analysis has combed through every angle, and there are some genuinely compelling spots to attack today, including a couple of prices that look undervalued on the morning line.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout anchors this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but there's enough pace pressure in the field to keep things honest and make the exotics worth building.

win4The Beast MasterML 5/2

The Beast Master is the horse to beat here — and it's not particularly close on the numbers. His TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the field, and a 40% career win rate is elite by any measure at this level. Jockey Ricardo Chiappe gets the call, and with a top average speed figure of 55 in the field, this horse has both the class and the raw ability to wire this group. The 5/2 morning line actually offers fair value given the profile.

place3Willy WillyML 7/2

Willy Willy is the logical counter at 7/2, posting a 77.06 TrackWiz rating that's a healthy step above the rest of the challengers. His 28% career win rate suggests he knows how to finish, and trainer Elisha Perez puts him in a position to earn a check here. If The Beast Master hits any trouble early, Willy Willy is the most likely beneficiary.

show5Rock Anna RollML 4/1

Rock Anna Roll is an interesting underneath piece at 4/1 despite a modest 7% career win rate. The TrackWiz rating of 63.61 sits comfortably in third in this field, and trainer Flint W. Stites has a knack for getting horses ready to fire at this level. Use in trifecta wheels as a live show horse with some upside.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 10-horse turf sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't have the strongest numbers — and our top-rated pick is going off at double digits.

win6Let'em HateML 10/1

Let'em Hate is the TrackWiz value play of this race — a 76.88 rating that ranks first in the field while opening at 10/1 on the morning line. That kind of disconnect between our numbers and the public price is exactly what we look for. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets keeps him sharp, and while his 5% career win rate looks modest, the speed and rating profile suggests he's been running against tougher — this spot sets up well for a big effort.

place7RockytaML 5/2

Rockyta is the public's second choice at 5/2 and for good reason — a 73.49 rating, 12% career win rate, and the field's top average speed figure of 58 make him a legitimate contender. The pace scenario on a short turf sprint could favor a horse with his ability to maintain speed, and jockey Angel Cruz keeps him in the hunt. If Let'em Hate hits the board, expect Rockyta right there with him.

show3Winning PlayML 4/1

Winning Play earns the show spot with a 72.94 TrackWiz rating and a 9% career win rate that's solid in this company. His average speed figure of 57 is second-best in the field, and trainer Kathleen A. Demasi puts him in at a fair price of 4/1. He's a tidy fit in the bottom of exacta and trifecta tickets in what should be a contested pace.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

Twelve horses going a route on the turf makes for a complex pace scenario — a standout number leads the way, but the crowded field and distance create real upset potential.

win4Mucho MojoML 2/1

Mucho Mojo carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and goes as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — that alignment of our model and public opinion isn't a coincidence. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp puts him in this spot likely knowing his horse handles turf routes, and jockey Angel R. Rodriguez is a capable pilot. The 8% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the raw ratings gap over the field is significant enough to trust here.

place9GanglyML 4/1

Gangly brings an impressive 22% career win rate to the table — one of the better win percentages in this 12-horse field — and his 76.62 TrackWiz rating makes him a genuine threat at 4/1. Martin Chuan rides, and trainer Timothy C. Kreiser already has a runner in this race (Doctor's Orders), suggesting he's comfortable playing the field. Gangly profiles as a closer who benefits from route distance, making him a natural underneath play.

show7TallahatchiebridgeML 9/2

Tallahatchiebridge at 9/2 posts a 71.70 rating and pairs with trainer Bruce M. Kravets, who consistently fields competitive horses at Penn National. His average speed of 55 matches the top of this deep field, and an 8% career win rate in a large, competitive group still translates to a live exotic piece. He fits neatly in trifecta and superfecta tickets as a reliable third option.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today. Race 1 sends The Beast Master onto the dirt at 5/2, and our rating of 87.81 suggests he's right in line with his morning line — a fair price if the pace sets up the way we expect in a 5½-furlong dash. Race 2 flips to the turf for a Starter Optional Claiming sprint, and that's where the real eyebrow-raiser shows up: Let'em Hate is sitting at 10/1 on the morning line, but his TrackWiz rating of 76.88 on a firm turf course makes him worth a serious look as a value play. Double-digit prices on turf sprints at a track like Penn can evaporate fast once the money flows in — don't sleep on this one.

Race 3 is the headliner of the free portion of the card. Mucho Mojo draws in at 2/1 going a route of ground on the turf, and his rating of 88.54 is the highest of the first three races — that's the kind of figure that can dominate this level. The 1 mile 70 yard distance rewards closers who can settle early, and if the pace scenario unfolds the way our projections suggest, Mucho Mojo could have a clear path. He's our top free-card selection today.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A short five-horse field goes one mile on dirt — simple on the surface, but a close battle is brewing between a sharp top-rated horse and a morning-line favorite with a different kind of profile.

win3Tactical HumorML 5/2

Tactical Humor is our top play in Race 4, armed with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that leads this compact field. His 12% career win rate is respectable for a one-mile dirt claimer, and trainer Allan Shuchman places him here at 5/2 — fair value for a horse the model loves. Jockey David Cora gets the mount and should handle the pace setup well in what figures to be a relatively honest, front-to-back race.

place5Bangkok BobML 9/5

Bangkok Bob is the public's morning-line choice at 9/5, and his 72.87 rating and 13% career win rate back up the confidence. Trainer David W. Geist has this horse ready, and Emilio Flores takes the reins — a reliable combination at this level. He's the most legitimate threat to Tactical Humor and deserves a spot in your exacta coverage.

show1DisturbedML 9/2

Disturbed rounds out the ticket at 9/2 with a 62.15 TrackWiz rating and a solid profile from the Kravets barn. His 6% career win rate tells you he's a horse that runs hard without always winning, which makes him a natural show-bet target and a useful trifecta anchor. With only five horses in the field, the show pool gets thin — but Disturbed has the form to hit the board.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Five go six furlongs on dirt and one horse stands out from the crowd — but a pair of value options make the exacta and trifecta worth constructing carefully.

win2ShowmanceML 9/5

Showmance is the most dominant horse on our card today relative to her field — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating in a five-horse field is a big number, and a 10% career win rate shows she does convert. Trainer Trevor Gallimore gets Angel Castillo aboard, and at 9/5 on the morning line, the public agrees with our model. The pace scenario at six furlongs on dirt suits an efficient, forward-moving profile, and we're happy to make this our top play.

place1StonecoldhandsomeML 5/1

Stonecoldhandsome opens at 5/1 and is easy to overlook, but his 70.10 TrackWiz rating is second in this field and his average speed of 53 is tied for the top mark here. Trainer Jose F. Bobadilla puts him in a winnable spot, and if Showmance draws any trouble or gets caught up in a pace duel, this horse is sitting right there to pounce. Use him underneath in exactas.

show4Souper VinnieML 4/1

Souper Vinnie profiles as a solid show pick at 4/1 — his 69.45 TrackWiz rating is third in the field and almost identical to Stonecoldhandsome's. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets runs a stable that consistently hits the board at Penn National, and Ricardo Chiappe is one of the more reliable jockeys in this meet. He's the right fit for trifecta coverage in a race where the top three on our sheet are well-separated from the rest.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maidens for a tag — nobody in this six-horse field has won before, so it all comes down to who has the most upside on paper and which barn is best at spotting a breakthrough moment.

win1Marlas DreamML 5/2

Marlas Dream leads this maiden claimer with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 54 that matches the top of the field. In a race where no horse has a career win to their name, the model's confidence in this number is especially meaningful — it's all about projected potential. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio saddles Jomar Torres, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for a horse our system thinks is clearly the best in here.

place2VelveteenML 2/1

Velveteen is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which tells you the public sees a capable horse — and the 73.91 TrackWiz rating backs that up. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets is adept at placing horses in spots they can succeed, and David Cora rides. Her average speed of 54 matches Marlas Dream's top figure, and she's easily the most likely to push our top pick in the stretch.

show5MonicaML 8/1

Monica is worth a look at 8/1 as a show play — her 48.33 TrackWiz rating doesn't scream star, but she has the field's third-best average speed at 53, which gives her a legitimate shot at picking up a piece late in a maiden field that could get messy up front. Trainer Flint W. Stites runs two in this race, suggesting he's comfortable with the conditions, and Ricardo Chiappe is always a trustworthy pilot. Tuck her in trifectas.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Eight horses go six furlongs in a claiming sprint that looks wide open on the morning line — but two horses have notably stronger TrackWiz ratings than the rest, setting up a potential top-two showdown.

win8BruderML 7/2

Bruder leads our sheet with an 85.24 TrackWiz rating and a solid 16% career win rate — dependable numbers in a field where most horses are in the 37-57 range. He draws the outside post at No. 8 but trainer Todd M. Beattie puts Yabriel O. Ramos up, and that's a sharp combination. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is the best-priced legitimate top choice on the card and our primary win selection.

place3CappettaML 6/1

Cappetta is our place horse at an enticing 6/1 price — his 82.71 TrackWiz rating is right behind Bruder's and well ahead of the rest of the field. A 15% career win rate shows he competes, and trainer Kevin J. Fields puts Emilio Flores in the irons. The morning line undervalues him significantly given his ratings profile, so he could offer real exacta value if the market stays soft.

show6Harbor of GoldML 8/1

Harbor of Gold at 8/1 is the sleeper in the exotics. Trainer Erin C. McClellan puts Inoel Beato up, and the horse carries a 57.01 rating alongside the field's best average speed figure at 56 — that top-end velocity is worth noting in a six-furlong sprint where early energy matters. His 14% career win rate shows he's competitive, and at big odds he's a value-added piece in trifectas and superfectas.

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A clean day at Penn National with legitimate plays across all seven races. Mucho Mojo is the top free-card selection, Let'em Hate offers the best value angle in the unlocked races, and the premium half of the card has a pace setup in Race 6 we think the public is going to get wrong. Good luck out there — play smart, manage your bankroll, and let the card come to you.

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