Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 14, 2026

Sunday, June 14, 20269 racesLone Star

Happy Flag Day from Grand Prairie — Lone Star Park is rolling out a nine-race Sunday card under partly cloudy skies and a warm 86°F. The dirt should be running fast and consistent, and with two turf routes on the afternoon's schedule, there's plenty of surface variety to keep things interesting.

The card mixes maiden claimers and MSWs with a handful of allowance spots that figure to attract some quality horses looking to make a statement heading into summer. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks across all nine races — three of which are available free to every reader, with full premium breakdowns on the back six for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight maiden claiming sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses sit within a point of each other — expect a close battle between the morning-line co-favorites at the top of the form.

win1Trot This WayML 2/1

Trot This Way earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 58.33 and draws the rail in a 6.5-furlong maiden claimer — a trip that rewards horses with early foot. Trainer Dick Cappellucci conditions the horse and jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. gets the call, a familiar partnership worth noting. The 2/1 morning line confirms the morning-line makers see this one clearly, and with the highest composite rating in the field, the TrackWiz numbers back that confidence. In a wide-open maiden field, we like the top-rated horse on the morning line.

place5Gold MesaML 8/5

Gold Mesa sits at an 8/5 morning line — actually the tightest price on the board — and posts a TrackWiz rating of 57.51, just a hair behind the top pick. Trainer M. Brent Davidson sends this one out with Weston Hamilton up, and the numbers suggest a horse that belongs near the front of this field. At short odds, the win pool may be thin on value, but Gold Mesa looks like a rock-solid place play in exotics.

show6K K's Kaity EdgeML 9/2

K K's Kaity Edge rates third in the field at 54.17, a meaningful gap below the top two but still clear of the rest of the card. The 9/2 morning line gives this one some price appeal for multi-leg wagers. Trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III and jockey Mario Fuentes give this runner a capable team, and the rating separation from the bottom half of the field makes her worth including in exactas and trifectas.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Mellencamp stands head and shoulders above this allowance field on the ratings — the real question is whether anyone can challenge the heavy favorite enough to threaten the exotics.

win2MellencampML 7/5

Mellencamp is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — an 89.42 TrackWiz rating that towers over the second-rated Promissione at 70.52. Trainer Dick Cappellucci runs this one back with jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. aboard, an in-barn combination that already handles Get Back Jo Jo (programNumber 1) in the same race. The 7/5 morning line reflects the public's opinion, and our numbers agree — this is a horse that has earned its spot at the top of an allowance field. The 14% career win rate understates the overall form profile when you factor in the rating dominance.

place3PromissioneML 4/1

Promissione at 4/1 is the logical second choice, posting a 70.52 rating for trainer Danny Pish and jockey Weston Hamilton. The 5% career win rate is modest, but allowance horses often accumulate close finishes without winning, and the rating suggests consistent competitiveness. At a square price against a heavy favorite, Promissione looks like exactly the kind of place horse you want underneath in exactas.

show1Get Back Jo JoML 15/1

Get Back Jo Jo is the intriguing show play here — a 68.61 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 33% stand out in a field where most horses are single-digit or low-teens winners. The 15/1 morning line feels steep given the underlying numbers, making this a potential overlay for trifecta construction. Trainer Dick Cappellucci runs both this horse and the heavy favorite Mellencamp, which could mean tactical awareness of where each fits in the pace scenario.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Sawasdee looks like a cut above in this allowance optional claiming turf sprint, but Bad Beat Brian and Stayed in for Half make this an interesting tri with two powerful stables involved.

win7SawasdeeML 2/1

Sawasdee posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — by far the best number in this five-furlong turf field — and comes in at a fair 2/1 morning line. Trainer Isaiah Ortiz sends this one out with jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. in the irons, and a 22% career win rate backs the idea that this horse closes out races. On a short turf sprint where pace can compress quickly, a horse with this kind of rating separation has a big edge. This is our top play of the first three races on the card.

place4Bad Beat BrianML 5/1

Bad Beat Brian (70.45 rating) is trained by Steve Asmussen — one of the most successful trainers in American racing — with his son Erik in the saddle, an in-house combination that often signals intent. The 5/1 morning line offers some play for a horse in the top tier of this field's ratings, and that Asmussen barn connection is worth taking seriously in any optional claimer on the turf.

show1Stayed in for HalfML 3/1

Stayed in for Half rounds out the ticket at a 70.07 rating, nearly identical to Bad Beat Brian, and actually posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 alongside those two. Trainer Karen E. Jacks sends this one out with Iram Vargas Diego up, and a 19% career win rate is respectable for an allowance turf runner. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and the speed figure edge makes this horse a solid show inclusion or a trifecta leg.

Our free coverage kicks off with the opener on dirt, where Trot This Way lines up as the morning-line favorite in a maiden claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs — a distance that rewards early speed on what figures to be a quick Lone Star strip today. Race 2 steps up in class to an allowance mile, and Mellencamp is the one to beat at 7/5 — a strong TrackWiz rating of 89.42 makes this our highest-confidence free pick of the afternoon. Round out the free card with Sawasdee in Race 3, a 5-furlong turf sprint in the allowance optional claiming ranks. Turf sprints at Lone Star can be pace-dependent, so watch the early fractions closely.

Across those three races you've got two different surfaces and a range of class levels — a nice cross-section of what today's full card has to offer.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Divine Wind looks like the class play in this allowance dirt sprint, but Copper Wind's short price sets up a contested pace scenario that could shape the entire race.

win8Divine WindML 5/2

Divine Wind has the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — a significant edge — and enters at a 5/2 morning line that suggests real value relative to her form. Trainer J.R. Caldwell sends this one out with Rene Diaz in the irons, and an average speed figure of 56 leads the field. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, that combination of top rating and top speed figure is hard to fade, and the price looks workable for win bettors.

place5Copper WindML 2/1

Copper Wind draws the short end of the morning-line stick at 2/1 despite a 67.02 rating that trails Divine Wind by over 20 points. Trainer Steven Asmussen sends this one out with Erik Asmussen up — always a combination to note — and a 20% career win rate adds credibility. The price won't be generous at the windows, but Copper Wind looks like a safe place play and a necessary exacta include given the stable power behind it.

show2Private DebbieML 4/1

Private Debbie rounds out the ticket at 4/1 with a 51.88 rating and a strong 20% career win rate — the same as Copper Wind. Stewart Elliott rides for the Asmussen barn, and the fact that Asmussen has two horses in this race (Private Debbie and Copper Wind) gives them a tactical advantage in the pace scenario. At 4/1, Private Debbie offers the best price of the top three and is worth including in trifectas.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses break away from the pack in the ratings here — Halo Rando and Dr. Soulfire are separated by less than half a point, setting up a potential duel for the top spot in a wide-open claiming sprint.

win9Halo RandoML 4/1

Halo Rando earns the narrow top TrackWiz rating at 84.65 and packs a 26% career win rate — best among the top-rated horses in this field. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends this one out with Geovanni Franco aboard, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the field alongside Positivity. The 4/1 morning line represents real value given the ratings edge, and that career win percentage suggests a horse that knows how to finish. This is our best value play in Race 5.

place2Dr. SoulfireML 5/1

Dr. Soulfire is essentially a coin flip with the top pick on ratings — 84.17 versus 84.65 — but comes in at a slightly wider 5/1 morning line. Trainer Steven Asmussen runs this one with Erik Asmussen in the irons, and a 13% career win rate isn't flashy, but the raw rating number is elite in this company. In a claiming race, the Asmussen name carries weight and makes Dr. Soulfire the automatic place backup.

show7PositivityML 3/1

Positivity sits third in the ratings at 75.34 and posts the field's co-best average speed figure of 56, which suggests a horse that runs consistent numbers without always converting. Trainer Justin R. Evans sends David Cabrera to the gate, and a 23% career win rate is the strongest mark among the show contenders. The 3/1 morning line is tight, but the speed figure parity with the top two makes Positivity a legitimate trifecta leg.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf mile claiming race where Gold Front and Zed both sit at 5/2 on the morning line — value hunters will need to dig deeper because the top of the board is crowded.

win11Gold FrontML 5/2

Gold Front earns the top TrackWiz rating at 83.49 in what is a very deep field, and trainer Terry Eoff sends out Weston Hamilton for the assignment. The 5/2 morning line puts this one at a fair price for a horse leading the field on our composite numbers. With a 9% career win rate, Gold Front hasn't always closed the deal, but the rating separation from the bottom half of this field is meaningful in a 14-horse race where eliminating horses matters.

place14ZedML 5/2

Zed also trains with Terry Eoff — giving that barn a powerful one-two punch — and earns an Erik Asmussen mount alongside a 77.68 TrackWiz rating. The 5/2 morning line matches Gold Front, and the two horses could work in tandem on the pace or take turns making their runs in a mile on turf. At the same morning line as the win pick, Zed is a natural place play and a key exacta partner.

show1Rocky ColavitoML 10/1

Rocky Colavito is the value angle here — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that actually trails Zed by less than a point, yet comes in at a 10/1 morning line that looks like a potential overlay. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends out Geovanni Franco, a reliable combination at this level, and a 16% career win rate is respectable for a claiming turf router. The rating vs. price gap makes Rocky Colavito one of the better trifecta plays on the full card.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Tiz Another Bunny brings the top rating but faces a 2/1 morning-line favorite in Strong Potential — this allowance sprint is shaped by a genuine top-two battle that could make the exacta interesting.

win5Tiz Another BunnyML 4/1

Tiz Another Bunny tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 despite being priced at 4/1, creating a spot where our numbers diverge from the public's opinion — exactly the kind of overlay we look for. Trainer Donna Hjort sends this one out with Iram Vargas Diego aboard, and a 14% career win rate in allowance company keeps expectations grounded while the rating screams upside. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, the early pace shape will matter, and this horse's edge on the numbers suggests it can handle whatever scenario unfolds.

place6Strong PotentialML 2/1

Strong Potential is the public's top choice at 2/1 and posts a 71.42 rating for the Asmussen barn with Stewart Elliott up — a combination that commands respect at every level. A 16% career win rate matches Papa Ken but the shorter price reflects heavy public support. The Asmussen-Elliott combo in a straight allowance sprint is hard to dismiss, and Strong Potential is the most likely pace-setter or presser in this field.

show2Dutton's SongML 7/2

Dutton's Song checks in at 68.26 for trainer Shawn H. Davis with Jose L. Alvarez in the saddle, and a 20% career win rate is actually the best mark among the three picks. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and an average speed figure of 56 — which leads the field alongside Strong Potential — gives Dutton's Song legitimate credentials in this company. This is a horse worth including in all multi-leg exotics as the third piece.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight for fillies where first-out runners dominate the field — pedigree, trainer pattern, and morning-line clues carry extra weight when past performances are thin.

win9Wicked StartML 5/2

Wicked Start tops this maiden field with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and draws Erik Asmussen for trainer Steven M. Asmussen — a barn that knows how to win first out with well-bred maidens. The 5/2 morning line is the tightest price in the field, signaling that connections have reason for confidence. With a recorded average speed figure of 54 — one of the few in this field with any workout or prior performance data — Wicked Start shows the ability to produce a number when others haven't been tested yet.

place5Queen's EdgeML 9/2

Queen's Edge sits second in the ratings at 54.17 and comes in at a workable 9/2 for trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III with Mario Fuentes up. An average speed figure of 53 provides some form basis in a field full of unknown quantities, and the rating edge over the rest of the field (outside the top three picks) is clear. At nearly double the win pick's price, Queen's Edge is an appealing exacta partner.

show8Kamikaze CowgirlML 5/1

Kamikaze Cowgirl rates third at 53.33 for trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton in the saddle, giving this one a capable crew for what could be a debut. The 5/1 price is fair in a maiden race full of question marks, and Pish has the experience to send a ready horse postward when the spot is right. Without a recorded average speed figure, this is a speculative play — but the rating and trainer credibility make Kamikaze Cowgirl a legitimate trifecta piece.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Fourteen fillies and mares go a mile on the turf in the nightcap — Charlie's a Rockin heads the ratings but faces legitimate pressure from Topic Thunder and Love That Witch at attractive prices.

win3Charlie's a RockinML 9/2

Charlie's a Rockin leads this deep field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and comes in at a very appealing 9/2 morning line — this is a horse whose numbers suggest a shorter price than the morning line implies. Trainer Mindy J. Willis sends out Stewart Elliott, and a 16% career win rate in claiming company is respectable for a turf router. At a mile on the grass, pace tends to compress and class tells late — and the top rating in a 14-horse field at this price is exactly the profile we target for best bets.

place14Topic ThunderML 4/1

Topic Thunder rates second at 80.79 with a 4/1 morning line for trainer Wade Rarick and jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. The 12% career win rate is workable for this level, and Rarick also trains Love That Witch (the show pick), giving the barn a strong positional presence in the race. At 4/1, Topic Thunder is fairly priced and profiles as the most natural exacta partner with the top pick.

show12Love That WitchML 8/1

Love That Witch brings a 76.89 rating and a 20% career win rate — the best among the top three picks — at an 8/1 morning line that screams overlay. Trainer Wade Rarick runs both this horse and Topic Thunder in the same race, meaning the barn has real skin in the game across multiple positions. The combination of a strong career win rate, a high rating, and a double-digit morning line makes Love That Witch one of the best trifecta values on the closing card.

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Bottom line: Mellencamp in Race 2 is the free-play standout of the afternoon, and the turf races late figure to be wide open. TrackWiz has all nine races covered — start with our free picks and upgrade at /pricing to get the full card before post time.

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