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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 13, 2026

Saturday, June 13, 202611 racesLone Star

It's a hot one at Lone Star Park on Saturday — partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting at 91°F as the gates open. That kind of heat can take a real toll on horses in routes and later races, so keep an eye on how early speed holds up as the afternoon wears on.

We've got a full 11-race card on tap today, and it's a genuinely loaded afternoon. Four stakes races are spread across the card, three of them on the turf, which sets up some interesting pace dynamics on what should be a firm-running grass course. There's plenty of action for every type of bettor, from the early allowance sprints to the prime-time turf features.

TrackWiz has crunched the numbers on every race. Three races are available free today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the full 11-race breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this six-furlong allowance opener, but the trainer-jockey combinations in this field make the exacta worth constructing carefully.

win4Perfect MagicML 5/2

Perfect Magic (#4) posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and comes in with the powerful Steven M. Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination — a father-son duo that knows how to get horses ready at Lone Star. The 5/2 morning line puts her right where she should be as the class of the field, but don't be surprised if she firms up further at the windows. At six furlongs on the dirt, this looks like a prime setup for a horse the Asmussen barn clearly has pointed here.

place2NeimanML 4/1

Neiman (#2) is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 79.36 and brings an elite 53% career win rate — the best in this race by a wide margin. Trainer Justin R. Evans sends him out with David Cabrera up, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine win upside here too. If Perfect Magic hits any trouble, Neiman is the most likely to take full advantage.

show5Blue LightML 3/1

Blue Light (#5) checks in with a 73.39 TrackWiz rating and a solid 39% career win percentage, giving trainer J.R. Caldwell a live chance at exotics from the five hole. Rene Diaz gets the call and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. As a hedge in trifectas, Blue Light offers the combination of a respectable rating and a strong career win record.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The one-mile claiming trip looks like a two-horse race at the top, but a pair of longshots could disrupt the pace scenario and create exotic opportunities.

win5StraightawayML 5/2

Straightaway (#5) is the clear top pick here with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a 5/2 morning line that prices him as the public choice. Trainer Jaime Castellanos sends him out with Jose L. Alvarez in the irons, and over a route of ground this horse's profile stands out. The rating gap between Straightaway and the rest of the field is significant — he doesn't have to be perfect to win this one.

place1Mucho Macho CamML 4/1

Mucho Macho Cam (#1) has the second-highest rating in the field at 81.80, a big step up from the rest of the pack, and trainer Alan Love Sr. has him going a full mile on the dirt with Rene Diaz aboard. Despite a modest 3% career win rate, the rating says his recent form has been sharper than the record suggests — a classic case where the numbers tell a different story than the past performances on the surface. At 4/1, there's real place value here.

show3Empire RanchML 9/2

Empire Ranch (#3) slots in with a 78.29 rating and an 11% career win rate, giving trainer Scott E. Young a logical third wheel in this claiming route. Floyd Wethey Jr. has the mount and the 9/2 morning line is fair for a horse whose rating places him solidly in the mix. In trifecta plays, Empire Ranch makes sense as the logical third wheel behind the top two rated horses.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Forever Safe looks like a significant class edge in a field of claimers, but the wide-open nature of the rest of the field creates genuine exotic value at multiple prices.

win6Forever SafeML 7/2

Forever Safe (#6) is the standout here with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a full 18-plus points clear of the next contender — and trainer Dick Cappellucci sends her out with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. up at a juicy 7/2 morning line. A 23% career win rate in claiming company is respectable, and her average speed figure of 55 leads a group where several horses are checking in at 54 or 53. If she runs her number, this field doesn't have much to beat her with.

place8Go PurpleML 9/2

Go Purple (#8) is the second-best rated horse in the field at 67.66 and gets David Cabrera — one of the sharper riders in this colony — for trainer Austin Gustafson. The 9/2 price offers genuine value for a horse whose rating puts her well ahead of the mid-field cluster. In a race where the top pick is likely to take money, Go Purple could offer a nice overlay in the exacta.

show2Bling BabyML 7/2

Bling Baby (#2) brings a 65.61 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 31% career win rate, the best in the field, for trainer Karen E. Jacks with veteran rider Stewart Elliott. The 7/2 morning line makes her one of the public's top selections, and the win rate tells you she converts when she belongs. She's a natural fit underneath in trifecta construction.

Our free card kicks off with a trio of dirt races that feature two allowance and claiming spots where pace and class are the story. Perfect Magic (Race 1, 5/2 morning line) headlines the opener — an allowance sprint at 6 furlongs where TrackWiz's ratings have her sitting at the top of the field. In Race 2, Straightaway shares that same 87.81 rating at the same 5/2 price going a flat mile in the claiming ranks, which immediately flags as potential value if the public underestimates the distance switch. Then in Race 3, Forever Safe at 7/2 gives us a slight overlay opportunity in a 6-furlong claiming sprint.

The through-line on these three? All three are dirt races, and with the heat bearing down through the afternoon, any horse that can secure a ground-saving trip early figures to have an edge. Watch the rail in the sprints — if it's playing fast early in the day, that's critical information heading into the back half of the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This five-furlong starter optional claiming sprint has a clear top selection, but several mid-priced horses are capable of making this competitive if the pace scenario opens up.

win6Curlin's Lil GalML 5/2

Curlin's Lil Gal (#6) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — same elite mark as Straightaway in Race 2 — and trainer Isaiah Ortiz sends her out with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., a jockey in consistent demand at this meet. Her 21% career win rate in optional claiming spots, combined with a 56 average speed figure that matches the top of this field, makes her the clear selection. At 5/2 on the morning line, the value isn't enormous, but the edge is real.

place5La MorenaML 9/2

La Morena (#5) rates second in the field at 78.35 and Rene Diaz takes the mount for trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III at a 9/2 morning line that could offer some overlay. Her 16% career win rate is modest, but the rating gap between her and the horses below her is meaningful. In a five-furlong sprint, pace will be critical — if the leaders go quick, La Morena could be closing into a winning position.

show1Lottery TicketML 5/1

Lottery Ticket (#1) is an interesting show play at 5/1 with a 69.44 TrackWiz rating and trainer Domingo Chacaltana sending out Rodolfo Guerra from the rail. A 19% career win rate is workable in this field, and the post position gives her a clear path to get involved early in a short five-furlong dash. At a fair price in trifecta plays, she rounds out the top three nicely.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The turf stakes mile-and-a-sixteenth features a morning-line favorite with dominant ratings, but a pair of 6/1 and 4/1 shots could make the exotics very interesting if the pace gets contentious.

win5Colonel YorkeML 9/5

Colonel Yorke (#5) is the most dominant top pick on today's card, carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest we've seen across the first five races — with a 38% career win rate that suggests he converts at a high level in spots like this. Trainer Mindy J. Willis sends him out with Stewart Elliott, a veteran who knows how to navigate turf routes, and the 9/5 morning line reflects what the public already suspects: this horse is the class of this stakes field. His numbers simply separate him from the rest.

place7Victory for VetsML 6/1

Victory for Vets (#7) is the most logical threat with a 67.30 rating and an impressive 38% career win rate that matches Colonel Yorke's conversion mark — he just hasn't shown the same peak figure. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a consistent performer in stakes spots at Lone Star, and Jose L. Alvarez gets the call at 6/1. If Colonel Yorke has any issues, Victory for Vets has the resume to capitalize.

show2Mor VictoryML 4/1

Mor Victory (#2) checks in at a 61.81 TrackWiz rating for trainer Jayde J. Gelner, who doubles up in this field and clearly believes in her horses' turf form at this distance. Erik Asmussen is a capable rider who regularly puts up wins at this circuit, and the 4/1 morning line gives you a horse with legitimate upside if the favorite underperforms. In the show position of exotics, Mor Victory is a rational inclusion.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-priced favorite tops this six-furlong allowance, but the secondary runners are closer in ratings than the morning line suggests, making this a race where the exacta could pay.

win9Mo for UsML 8/5

Mo for Us (#9) carries an 85.78 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best in the field — and gets the formidable Steven M. Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination at 8/5 on the morning line. A 29% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure are solid benchmarks for six furlongs on the dirt. The Asmussen barn's win percentage in allowance spots has been consistently strong at this meet, and this figures to be a horse they've spotted correctly.

place2Misty MuppetML 8/1

Misty Muppet (#2) is a fascinating secondary play with a 78.30 TrackWiz rating and trainer Danny Pish sending out Weston Hamilton at 8/1 on the morning line. Her 17% career win rate understates what her rating suggests she's capable of — the number puts her well clear of the mid-field group. At 8/1, there's overlay potential if Mo for Us absorbs the money she deserves to get at the windows.

show7Tiz the SpiritML 10/1

Tiz the Spirit (#7) posts a 76.88 TrackWiz rating and brings a 37% career win rate to the table — actually the second-best conversion mark in this field behind Ready to Dial. Trainer Todd W. Fincher is a savvy conditioner who consistently gets horses ready in allowance company, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is a solid rider who knows this track. At 10/1, she represents terrific trifecta value for a horse whose career win rate belongs near the top of this field.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

The five-furlong turf stakes is loaded with double-digit morning-line runners surrounding a tight cluster of top contenders, setting up a genuine pace puzzle on a short turf dash.

win5Won More TimeML 9/2

Won More Time (#5) leads all TrackWiz ratings in this field at 82.96 and checks in with a 57 average speed figure — tied for best in the race — for trainer Austin Gustafson with David Cabrera in the irons. A 25% career win rate is respectable in a stakes field, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the public hasn't fully caught up to the rating edge. Cabrera is one of the sharper pilots on the grounds and the short five-furlong turf distance suits a horse with that kind of top-end speed figure.

place4Silver AssassinML 3/1

Silver Assassin (#4) rates second in the field at 80.13 and Stewart Elliott — an experienced turf handler — takes the call for trainer Karen E. Jacks at 3/1 on the morning line. A 16% career win rate doesn't scream, but the rating suggests she's been running competitive numbers. At a shorter price, she's a logical key in exacta construction underneath Won More Time.

show6Unbridled BlingML 2/1

Unbridled Bling (#6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 78.50 TrackWiz rating and a 57 average speed figure that ties for the field's best, making her the most interesting fade if the public overplays her. Santos Rivera gets the mount for trainer Alex Hernandez, and while a 13% career win rate is a concern, the raw speed numbers say she belongs near the top of this field. In show plays and trifecta boxes, she's too talented to leave out.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight sprints are always a guessing game, but this full field of first-timers and lightly-raced youngsters has a handful of horses with workout-based advantages worth noting.

win4Western SwagML 5/2

Western Swag (#4) tops the TrackWiz ratings for this maiden field at 57.50 and comes in with trainer Dick Cappellucci — a conditioner who knows how to spot first-time starters — with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. up at 5/2 on the morning line. The 54 average speed figure (one of the better marks in this field for horses that have appeared) suggests Western Swag has shown something already. In maiden sprints, the combination of the highest rating and a public-respected morning line is as good a signal as you can ask for.

place7StillashopML 9/2

Stillashop (#7) posts a 54.17 rating — second-best in the field — and gets Stewart Elliott for the powerful Steven M. Asmussen stable at 9/2. Asmussen regularly produces competitive first-starters and Elliott is a polished veteran who can coax a performance out of a green horse. The 54 average speed figure matches the top tier of this field, making Stillashop a natural exacta partner.

show2Stacy's DreamML 5/1

Stacy's Dream (#2) rates third in the field at 53.33 for trainer Danny Pish, who also saddles the top pick and clearly has a strong opinion about his barn's chances today. Weston Hamilton takes the mount and the 5/1 morning line gives you real show value in trifecta plays. In a wide-open maiden race, having two horses from the same sharp barn in your top three is a legitimate angle worth leveraging.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open twelve-horse turf sprint stakes with genuine top-to-bottom competitiveness — the morning-line favorite isn't even our top pick, which tells you everything about where the value lies.

win12Kiss My DiceML 12/1

Kiss My Dice (#12) is our top selection at 12/1 on the morning line despite carrying the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 73.96 — a clear disconnect that makes this the best value play of the card. Trainer J.R. Caldwell sends her out with Rene Diaz, a capable rider who's been active and competitive throughout this meet. A 30% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure suggest she belongs, and if the public is sleeping on that rating, the payout could be significant. TrackWiz analysis says back the number, not the morning line.

place8Golly HollyML 8/1

Golly Holly (#8) rates second in this field at 67.24 with a 23% career win rate and Erik Asmussen aboard for the Steven M. Asmussen stable — a family operation that has been sharp all meet at Lone Star. At 8/1, she's priced as an afterthought to Bling It to Me's 2/1 favorite status, but the rating gap between them is real. In place and exacta plays, Golly Holly at that price is a smart overlay worth targeting.

show5Bling It to MeML 2/1

Bling It to Me (#5) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and while our model has her rated third in the field at 64.88, she's clearly the horse most of the money will follow. A 25% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure — tied for best in the race — give her legitimate credentials. At short odds she's a tougher win bet, but in show plays she's the kind of horse you include to anchor conservative tickets.

Race 10

10:38 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The six-and-a-half furlong dirt stakes has a clear ratings leader, but the place and show picks both come with longshot prices that could make the exotics extremely rewarding.

win2Victory for VetsML 5/2

Victory for Vets (#2) makes her second appearance today — she also ran in Race 5 on the turf — and now switches to the dirt for trainer W. Bret Calhoun with Jose L. Alvarez up. Her 81.27 TrackWiz rating is the field's best by more than 11 points, and a 38% career win rate is the top mark in this stakes field. The 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse of this caliber, and if she handled the earlier turf race well, Calhoun clearly believes she has enough in reserve to fire again.

place1Cheating HeartML 15/1

Cheating Heart (#1) is a fascinating place play at 15/1 on the morning line despite carrying a 69.58 TrackWiz rating — one of the better figures in the mid-field. Trainer Dick Cappellucci sends her out from the rail with Floyd Wethey Jr., and a 25% career win rate suggests she's been competitive in spots like this. The longshot price relative to her rating represents genuine overlay value in exactas if Victory for Vets takes care of business on top.

show5Chasing CoyotesML 15/1

Chasing Coyotes (#5) rates at 66.12 with a 21% career win rate for trainer Dick Cappellucci — who also saddles Cheating Heart, suggesting the barn has multiple weapons today. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. rides at a 15/1 morning line that looks like a significant price for a horse whose rating puts her inside the top half of the field. Two Cappellucci runners in the exotic mix at big prices could make the trifecta a genuinely lucrative ticket.

Race 11

11:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The closing turf stakes at seven-and-a-half furlongs features a dominant morning-line co-favorite who the ratings strongly support, but with thirteen runners there's plenty of room for a longshot to sneak into the exotics.

win10ImaluckycharmML 2/1

Imaluckycharm (#10) is the standout selection of the entire closing race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this field by more than 16 points — backed by a remarkable 48% career win rate that is simply elite for a stakes horse. Stewart Elliott, who's had multiple mounts throughout this card, gets the call for trainer Karen E. Jacks, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the strong case she presents. At seven-and-a-half furlongs on the turf, her combination of rating dominance and conversion efficiency makes her the most compelling win selection on the entire card.

place12BlingsterML 10/1

Blingster (#12) rates second in this thirteen-horse field at 71.29 with a 33% career win rate — a solid figure for stakes-level turf routes. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun sends him out with Jose L. Alvarez, who has been busy and effective throughout today's card. At 10/1 on the morning line, there's real overlay in the exacta if Imaluckycharm does her part at the top.

show9Sky RockerML 5/2

Sky Rocker (#9) checks in with a 67.93 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate that ranks among the field's best, with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. up for trainer Mindy J. Willis — who has multiple entries in this race and clearly has this distance-surface combo circled. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public agrees she's among the contenders, and in a big field trifecta, she's a logical third piece that provides both protection and value.

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Lone Star is dealing out a deep, stakes-heavy card today with legitimate plays from the first race to the last. Perfect Magic, Straightaway, and Forever Safe are your free best bets to get started, and the premium card brings four stakes races, turf pace projections, and a 12/1 longshot angle that's worth a serious look. Subscribers can access the full analysis at TrackWiz — good luck out there, and handle the heat.

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