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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 15, 2026

September 15, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Finger Lakes is rolling out an 8-race all-dirt card this Tuesday, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for in mid-September. Cloudy skies and a comfortable 68°F mean no heat stress on the horses and a surface that should play honest — no extreme speed bias, no wet-weather wildcards.

The card is a nice mix of allowance and claiming action, with distances ranging from 5½ furlongs up to a flat mile. That variety keeps things interesting from a pace-scenario standpoint — you've got sprint specialists one race, route horses the next, and a few versatile types who could go either way.

TrackWiz has broken down all 8 races. The first three are open to everyone, and they happen to feature some of the sharpest-rated horses on the card — so there's real value in the free tier today. Races 4 through 8 are where the deeper angles live, and subscribers get the full picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A pair of M. Anthony Ferraro runners bookend this mile allowance, and the morning line has both near the top — expect a trainer-barn battle with real implications for the exacta.

win4LifeisbutadreamML 2/1

Lifeisbutadream tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and carries the best career win percentage in the field at 33% — meaning nearly one in three career starts results in a victory. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the profile demands respect: trainer M. Anthony Ferraro has a second entry in this race, signaling stable confidence, and the numbers support Lifeisbutadream as the one to beat. Jockey Keiber J. Coa is a key booking here and shouldn't be overlooked.

place1EkwanokML 5/2

Ekwanok sits second in our ratings at 84.81 and also owns a 25% career win rate — a legitimate contender that morning-line oddsmakers have pegged at 5/2. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley also saddles Ma Mi Jo Dreams in this spot, but it's Ekwanok that carries the stronger TrackWiz number and the better top-end speed figure. If the favorite stumbles, this one is perfectly positioned to land in the exacta.

show6Lipan LawML 7/2

Lipan Law rounds out the Ferraro barn's two-horse presence with a solid 80.35 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. The 7/2 morning line suggests the market is already on board with this barn's strength today, and Lipan Law's profile as a show anchor in exotics is solid. At that price, tossing this one into trifectas at the bottom is a reasonable play.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Percy draws heavy scrutiny as a short-priced runner with a modest win rate, while a pair of sneaky double-digit contenders lurk beneath the surface in what looks like a wide-open mile claimer.

win6PercyML 3/1

Percy owns the field's top TrackWiz rating by a clear margin at 87.08, and trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is having a strong card today with multiple live runners. The 3/1 morning line is workable for a horse that grades out this far ahead of the competition on our model. Jockey Luis E. Perez is a strong pilot, and the dirt mile distance appears to be right in this horse's wheelhouse based on the overall rating profile.

place5King KhaliML 5/1

King Khali is the speed horse to watch here, posting the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a tick above the pack in a claiming sprint-turned-route. The 5/1 morning line offers some cushion if Percy dominates, and trainer Chris J. Englehart consistently gets his horses ready to fire. King Khali's 11% career win rate is modest, but the speed edge makes this one a legitimate place contender worth using in exactas.

show2Real EleveML 10/1

Here's the value angle: Real Eleve is sitting at 10/1 on the morning line yet grades out third in TrackWiz ratings at 66.07 — the biggest gap between public price and model rating in this field. A 52 average speed figure matches the leaders, and trainer Katlynn Gutterson also has Renaissance Man in the race, which could split support. If Real Eleve fires her best, the show price at double digits is a gift.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Skyler's Starship enters as a heavy favorite in a short six-furlong dash, but a pair of underrated closers — including a morning-line longshot with a strong rating — could make the exotics interesting.

win5Skyler's StarshipML 8/5

Skyler's Starship leads all comers with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on today's card — and the market agrees, installing the M. Anthony Ferraro trainee as the 8/5 morning-line favorite. Despite a 13% career win rate, the raw rating advantage here is substantial, and Keiber J. Coa in the irons is a high-quality booking. Six furlongs on dirt is a sharp distance for a horse with this kind of speed rating.

place2NyikosML 8/1

Nyikos is the sneaky pick here — a 77.27 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field, yet the morning line has this horse at 8/1. That gap is notable. Trainer Dana Saul is doing work with a horse carrying a 23% career win rate, the best among the full field, suggesting a horse that fires with regularity. If Skyler's Starship gets pressured early, Nyikos could be rolling late.

show1In the ChaseML 2/1

In the Chase opens at 2/1 — the second-lowest morning line in the race — and lands third in our ratings at 66.67. Trainer Jorge Delgado has this one freshened for a sprint, and the 17% career win rate is respectable. With a 54 average speed figure matching Nyikos, In the Chase has the pace to stay competitive and is a reliable show option in the trifecta.

The three free races cover a solid stretch of the early card and give you a legitimate foundation for the day. Lifeisbutadream opens things up in Race 1 — an allowance mile where our ratings have this horse comfortably clear at 88.54, and the 2/1 morning line is fair without being a giveaway. In Race 2, Percy draws our top rating (87.08) in a claiming mile and goes off at 3/1, which gives you a little cushion if you're building early doubles or pick-3 tickets.

Race 3 is the one we're most excited about in the free tier. Skyler's Starship tops the card through three races with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and is already the morning-line favorite at 8/5 in a 6-furlong allowance sprint. On a surface playing true today, a horse with that kind of rating in a straight sprint can be a powerful anchor for exotics. These three races alone give you a legitimate framework for the first half of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

M. Anthony Ferraro throws two at this allowance sprint, and one of them — a legitimate value play at 8/1 — looks sharply underrated by the morning line.

win3RockinmoneyML 4/1

Rockinmoney checks in at 81.88 on the TrackWiz scale, tops in this seven-horse field, and trainer M. Anthony Ferraro knows this distance well. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse sitting this clearly ahead of the field on our model. Keiber J. Coa takes the mount — a rider with a strong Finger Lakes record — and the 54 average speed figure is competitive across the board.

place2Vino's ValentineML 8/1

Vino's Valentine is the value angle in this race — an 8/1 morning line against a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, which is second-best in the field. That's the kind of price-vs-rating gap that makes exacta plays compelling. Trainer Ilmar Loaiza has this one primed with a 55 average speed figure — tied for the top mark in the field alongside Guilty — and Luis E. Perez is a capable handler at this distance.

show6GuiltyML 5/2

Guilty comes in as the morning-line second choice at 5/2 with a 20% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure that ties for the field's best. Trainer Paul W. Barrow keeps this horse competitive, and the public pricing suggests real respect. The show slot here is the safest play for exotic bettors looking to anchor the bottom of the trifecta.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming field with wide-open pace projections — speed figures are scattered and the top two rated horses are sitting at workable prices, setting up a potentially juicy exacta.

win2Book of WisdomML 4/1

Book of Wisdom tops this field at 85.62 on the TrackWiz model and gets the nod at 4/1 on the morning line — that's solid value for the top-rated horse in the field. Trainer Dana Saul saddles this one fresh on a six-furlong dirt strip where the 52 average speed figure can get the job done. Jockey Jose Baez has the experience to place this horse in the right position early in a contentious ten-horse field.

place9Follow Your ArrowML 3/1

Follow Your Arrow is the other horse worth highlighting — an 81.81 TrackWiz rating, a 20% career win rate, and a morning line of 3/1 that makes this one one of the more straightforward value plays on the card. Trainer Chris J. Englehart consistently wins at a high clip with well-spotted horses, and a 54 average speed figure sits near the top of this field. Underneath Book of Wisdom in the exacta is the core play.

show5Grand Lady IndyML 10/1

Grand Lady Indy is the legitimate longshot-to-show angle here — a 10/1 morning line against a 74.30 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field. That rating is notably stronger than her public price implies. The 54 average speed figure is tied among the better runners, and trainer Samuel Morales has this one quietly positioned. Throw her in the bottom of trifectas at minimum.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Fire Down Below stands out from the pack with elite win percentage numbers, but the morning line prices this one at 6/1 — giving sharp bettors a potential value window in a seven-horse sprint.

win5Fire Down BelowML 6/1

Fire Down Below sports the highest career win percentage in the entire field at 34% — nearly one in three starts — and backs it up with a 82.71 TrackWiz rating that leads this group by over 12 points. The 6/1 morning line looks like a pricing mistake; our model has this horse as a clear standout. Trainer Amy Albright places this one in a winnable spot at 5.5 furlongs on dirt, and Keiber J. Coa in the saddle is a top-tier booking.

place7Stormin SammyML 7/2

Stormin Sammy is priced at 7/2 with a 21% career win rate — the second-best in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 69.89. Trainer Rachel Sells brings this one to the table with solid credentials, and the 54 average speed figure keeps Stormin Sammy in range of the pace. As a place contender, this horse fills out the exacta nicely alongside Fire Down Below.

show2The InstituteML 5/2

The Institute comes in as the morning-line second choice at 5/2, which tells you the public likes this horse — but a 69.70 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed figure put it just a nose behind Stormin Sammy on the model. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro is an active barn at this meet, and Luis E. Perez riding gives this one a quality pilot. A safe show play for trifecta construction.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sorority Prank draws the most attention from our model in a nine-horse allowance optional claimer, but the morning line buries this horse at 6/1 — potential value hiding in plain sight.

win8Sorority PrankML 6/1

Sorority Prank ties Fire Down Below for the highest TrackWiz rating on today's card at 82.71 — yet the morning line has this one at 6/1 in a field where the 3/1 morning-line favorite Paradise Valley grades out nearly 19 points lower on our model. That's a meaningful disconnect. Trainer Chris J. Englehart is excellent in spots like this, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this horse competitive in a field without a dominant front-runner.

place1Pompous PrinceML 5/1

Pompous Prince leads this field in average speed figure at 55 and carries a strong 25% career win rate with a 76.12 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is running Pompous Prince in a race where the pace should set up nicely for a closers' finish, and Keiber J. Coa is the experienced hand to guide this one home. A natural exacta partner with Sorority Prank.

show3Scoot DaddyML 7/2

Scoot Daddy grades out third on our model at 74.65 and has a solid 21% career win rate that speaks to consistency. Trainer Dana Saul also has Canyouhearmerunnin in this race, but Scoot Daddy carries the stronger rating and the 7/2 morning line suggests the market is already interested. A reliable show anchor and trifecta piece.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Diva Banker and Only in My Dreams give trainer David Oyola two bullets in this six-furlong claimer, and both rate among the top horses in the field — setting up a potentially in-house exacta.

win2Diva BankerML 7/2

Diva Banker owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and comes in at a reasonable 7/2 on the morning line — workable value for the model's top selection. Trainer David Oyola also saddles Only in My Dreams, giving this barn a one-two punch that adds intrigue. The 53 average speed figure is in line with the top tier, and jockey Michael A. Davila, Jr. gets the call — a quality pairing for a horse that looks like the class of this field.

place7Only in My DreamsML 3/1

Only in My Dreams rates second in this field at 82.40 and opens at 3/1 — making this Oyola barn's one-two combination look extremely formidable on paper. Oscar Gomez rides, and a 13% career win rate masks what the speed figures and model are saying: this horse is live. The case for the exacta key with Diva Banker on top is compelling, and Only in My Dreams looks like the logical underneath.

show1Sweet Tooth SueML 8/1

Sweet Tooth Sue is our show pick at a juicy 8/1 morning line, and the 67.60 TrackWiz rating ranks third in this eight-horse field — a meaningful gap from the public price. The 4% career win rate is admittedly thin, but the speed figure of 53 keeps this horse on the same page as the top contenders. Toss Sweet Tooth Sue into the bottom of trifectas for added coverage at what could be a generous price.

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is giving us a clean, honest track today and a card with legitimate plays at every level. Skyler's Starship is the name to know from the free tier, and the late card has enough pace intrigue to make the premium analysis worth your time. Good luck out there — let's make Tuesday count.

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