Daily Picks

Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — June 16, 2026

Tuesday, June 16, 20268 racesFinger Lakes

It's a pleasant Tuesday at Finger Lakes — partly cloudy, 71°F, and eight races spread across a firm dirt surface that should play fair all afternoon. No weather excuses today; it's going to come down to horseflesh and how well you've done your homework.

The card mixes allowance company with claiming and starter optional claiming contests, giving you a nice range of scenarios to work with. Short sprints at 5½ furlongs dominate the early and middle portions of the card, while two routes stretch things out past a mile — always a different puzzle to solve at a tight oval like Finger Lakes.

TrackWiz has ratings across all eight races and three of them are open to every reader. If you've been hunting for a full-card day to put together a multi-race ticket, this one's got the ingredients.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A five-horse allowance going a mile and 70 yards on dirt, and the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier — but the barn of M. Anthony Ferraro saddles two live contenders, making the pace scenario and post-race split interesting.

win5PassionedML 3/1

Passioned tops our ratings at 87.08 and carries a 22% career win rate — the kind of number that plays well in a field this size. Trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and piloted by Keiber J. Coa, this horse gets a confident book from the connections who know her best. At the mile-and-70 route, that rating edge over the field is meaningful, and at 3/1 on the morning line there's still legitimate value here. This is our top selection and the horse to beat.

place4Burn NoticeML 4/1

Burn Notice (82.5 rating) is the one to watch as a win alternative — and that 33% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro (a different Ferraro barn from the win pick) has Luis E. Perez in the irons, and horses with that kind of win percentage at the career level tend to find the winner's circle eventually. At 4/1 on the morning line, the place spot looks very secure.

show3Seams Like DestinyML 2/1

Seams Like Destiny is the public's second choice at 2/1 morning line with a 78.54 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field. Trainer Troy Smith sends her out with Reylu Gutierrez, and while she doesn't match the top two on raw rating, she's close enough to fill out exactas and trifectas comfortably. Use her underneath in exotics if you're playing the vertical tickets.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Seven fillies and mares go 5½ furlongs in a claiming sprint, and while Diva Banker owns the top TrackWiz number, She's a Freud looms as a legitimate threat — this figures to be a two-horse war with a value show option lurking underneath.

win5Diva BankerML 3/1

Diva Banker (87.08 rating) is our top pick despite carrying the longest title in a field loaded with speed types. Trainer David Oyola puts Michael A. Davila, Jr. aboard, and at 3/1 morning line there's solid value attached to the top-rated horse in the race. The 53 average speed figure is par for the course here, and that rating gap over the rest of the field — nearly five points clear of She's a Freud — gives us confidence at the sprint distance.

place2She's a FreudML 2/1

She's a Freud is the one pushing our top pick hardest, and her 26% career win rate is the best in the field. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley has Kevin Navarro up, and an average speed of 54 ties the field high. The morning line favorite at 2/1, she's clearly respected — and rightfully so. If Diva Banker stumbles, this one is positioned to steal the win.

show3Honorable LillyML 5/1

Honorable Lilly slots in at show for us at 5/1 on the morning line with a 73.16 rating — third in the field but clearly ahead of the rest. Trainer Rachel Sells sends her out with Jeremias Flores, and her 54 average speed figure matches the top two. She's the logical trailer in an exacta or trifecta, especially if the pace gets hot up front between our top two selections.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs where the morning line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse — Grand Golden Road at 4/1 owns the best TrackWiz number in a field where the top three in ratings are separated enough to suggest a clear hierarchy.

win1Grand Golden RoadML 4/1

Grand Golden Road tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 despite being listed at 4/1 on the morning line — that's a value gap worth exploiting. Trainer Rachel Sells has Andre Shivnarine Worrie in the irons, and a 53 average speed figure keeps her competitive in this claiming company. The 11% career win rate is modest, but the overall rating gap over this field is significant enough to back her with confidence.

place2Cue the MusicML 5/2

Cue the Music is the morning line favorite at 5/2, and while our ratings don't put her on top, a 66.35 rating with a 14% career win rate is respectable. Trainer Eduardo Maver, Jr. has Chris Russell up for a horse that figures to be involved early from the inside post. She's the one that could steal the show if Grand Golden Road hits any trouble.

show7Jessica's RaceML 6/1

Jessica's Race is an interesting show play at 6/1 morning line with a 61.25 rating — third best in the field but coming with a bit of value attached. Trainer Paul W. Barrow sends Jeremias Flores out on a horse whose 7% career win rate suggests she finds the board more than the winner's circle, which is exactly what we need from a show selection. Include her in the bottom of your trifectas.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation to build on. Passioned opens the card in an allowance route at 1 mile 70 yards at a very workable 3/1 morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 puts this horse at the top of a competitive but beatable field. Over in Race 2, Diva Banker matches that same 87.08 rating in a 5½-furlong claiming sprint, which is the kind of double-up angle we love to see early. And in Race 3, Grand Golden Road checks in at 85.62 with a 4/1 ticket — a little more value if the morning line holds.

All three of today's free picks are on dirt sprints or routes that should suit front-to-mid pack runners on a surface that typically rewards horses who can get to the lead or sit just off a honest pace. Keep an eye on the early fractions in Race 2 — pace setup in those short claiming sprints can flip a result in a hurry.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming route going a mile and 70 yards, and the top three TrackWiz ratings are remarkably bunched — Olazabal, Big Rich, and Mad Magic are separated by fewer than four points, setting up a genuine three-way battle in the stretch.

win1OlazabalML 5/2

Olazabal earns the top spot in our ratings at 87.81 and backs it up with the best career win percentage in the field at 26% — that's a horse who knows how to close the deal. Trainer Rachel Sells and jockey Jeremias Flores are a familiar combination at Finger Lakes, and the 54 average speed figure is best in the race. At 5/2 morning line, the value isn't enormous, but this is a clear top choice.

place3Big RichML 7/2

Big Rich (85.65 rating) is only 2.16 points behind our top pick, and trainer Timothy P. Murphy puts Chris Russell aboard for the route trip. A 16% career win rate on a horse this close in the ratings suggests he'll be a factor late — and at 7/2 morning line there's a bit of cushion in the price. Don't leave him out of your exacta keys.

show7Mad MagicML 5/1

Mad Magic rounds out the top three in our ratings at 84.17 and shapes up as the natural show play at 5/1 morning line. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro has Luis E. Perez in the irons — a sharp combination — and the 16% career win rate says this horse can compete. With three horses this closely rated, the vertical tickets here are extremely playable.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse allowance sprint featuring two first-time starters alongside seasoned veterans, and the presence of unbeaten horses makes handicapping a genuine puzzle — our ratings lean toward a horse with a form cycle over the debutantes.

win2Good MissionML 6/1

Good Mission leads our ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 morning line, which is outstanding value for the top-rated horse in a nine-horse field. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has Jeremias Flores up, and a 54 average speed figure ties the field high alongside Bald Kitten. The 5% career win rate is low, but the rating dominance over nearly everyone else in this field tells us TrackWiz sees something that the oddsmakers might be undervaluing. This is our best value play on the card.

place8MobelladreamML 5/1

Mobelladream (66.49 rating) is our place pick at 5/1 morning line — trained by M. Anthony Ferraro with Christopher Elliott up, this is a barn that knows how to place horses. A 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure give her enough foundation to suggest a board finish is very much in play. She profiles as an ideal single-race exotic anchor underneath Good Mission.

show5Victoria's ShancesML 2/1

Victoria's Shances is the 2/1 morning line favorite and listed with a perfect career win rate — she's unbeaten, but the zero average speed figure tells us TrackWiz is working with limited data on her. Trainer Wesley A. Ward is one of the best in the game with debut runners, which explains the short price. She's a legitimate threat to wire the field if ready, so including her in the show spot is solid trifecta protection.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Peeling Out enters as a heavy favorite at 9/5 morning line with the top TrackWiz number by a wide margin, but Real Eleve provides an intriguing second angle — the rest of the field needs a career-best effort to matter.

win5Peeling OutML 9/5

Peeling Out is the standout here — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, a 25% career win rate, and a 9/5 morning line that says the public agrees. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro puts Luis Pena aboard for a six-furlong dirt sprint that looks tailor-made for this runner's profile. That win percentage at a major metric is among the best we've seen anywhere on today's card. Take the short price and move on.

place1Real EleveML 7/2

Real Eleve (84.15 rating) is our place pick at 7/2 morning line and holds a solid edge over everyone outside of Peeling Out. Trainer Katlynn Gutterson puts Jacqueline A. Davis in the irons, and the 7% career win rate suggests Real Eleve finds the board more than the winner's circle — which is exactly the profile we want for a place play. A nearly 35-point gap in TrackWiz ratings separates her from the show horses, so the place looks secure.

show8Addyson's DreamML 6/1

Addyson's Dream is an intriguing show play at 6/1 morning line despite a modest 51.57 rating. Trainer Matthew Clarke sends Oscar Gomez out for what could be a maiden-style performance, but in a field where most horses rate between 17 and 52, the 51.57 puts her near the top of the secondary tier. At 6/1, tossing her into trifectas costs little and could pay handsomely if the top two clear and the third spot opens up.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lord King opens as the 3/2 morning line chalk and backs it up with the top TrackWiz number in a seven-horse allowance sprint — the question isn't whether he's the best horse, it's whether the odds justify single-race action or if you wait for the exotics.

win7Lord KingML 3/2

Lord King (89.27 rating) is the class of this field, full stop. A 28% career win rate is elite for a horse at this level, and an average speed figure of 55 is tied for the field high. Trainer Luis Gutierrez sends him out with Reylu Gutierrez aboard — a strong combination — and the morning line of 3/2 reflects the universal respect. The only knock is the short price, but the stats here fully support it.

place1Cast a CoinML 7/2

Cast a Coin (69.66 rating) is our place pick at 7/2 morning line, and there's a compelling case here beyond just filling the second spot. Trainer Jacqueline Falk has Chris Russell up, and an average speed of 55 — tied for the field high — tells us this horse has the raw pace to be involved throughout. A 14% career win rate is workable, and at 7/2 you're getting legitimate place value behind the chalk.

show5King PhoenixML 9/2

King Phoenix (68.57 rating) rounds out our top three at 9/2 morning line, nearly matching Cast a Coin's rating with a better 20% career win rate. Trainer Charlton Baker puts Luis E. Perez on the outside post, and that 20% win figure is third best in the field behind only Lord King and Cast a Coin. He's a natural trifecta fill and could even upset if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A mile claiming race to close out the card, and Oh Mrs. Maisel carries the top TrackWiz rating into a seven-horse field — but Turnupthemusic isn't far behind, and Ligon's Legacy offers a compelling show angle at a workable price.

win2Oh Mrs. MaiselML 5/2

Oh Mrs. Maisel tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and gets a strong book with Luis E. Perez from trainer Michael S. Ferraro's barn. The 5/2 morning line is fair for the top-rated horse going a flat mile on dirt, and a 52 average speed figure is second best in the race. The 10% career win rate is the one mild concern, but the TrackWiz rating gap over the rest of the field — over 13 points clear of the third horse — is hard to ignore.

place1TurnupthemusicML 3/1

Turnupthemusic (83.85 rating) is only four points behind our top pick and brings the best average speed figure in the field at 51 alongside several others — but it's the trainer-jockey combo that stands out. Jonathan B. Buckley puts Kevin Navarro up, the same pairing as Race 2's pick She's a Freud. A 16% career win rate and the morning line of 3/1 say this horse belongs right in the thick of it.

show6Ligon's LegacyML 6/1

Ligon's Legacy is our show play at 6/1 morning line and brings the most impressive win rate in the field at 28% — the kind of career number that says this horse finds the winner's circle regularly. Trainer Paul W. Barrow sends Jeremias Flores out for a one-mile dirt route, and while the 70.08 TrackWiz rating sits third in the field, that win percentage is far and away the best. At 6/1, this is one of the better show values on the entire card.

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Eight races, a comfortable afternoon, and a card with real teeth from top to bottom — Finger Lakes on June 16 is worth your attention. Start with Passioned, Diva Banker, and Grand Golden Road on the free side, then let Lord King and Peeling Out anchor your premium plays. Subscribe to TrackWiz for the full breakdown, exotic ticket strategies, and pace projections across all eight races. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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