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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 20268 racesAll Evangeline picks

Happy Labor Day from Evangeline Downs, where Mother Nature decided to make things interesting. Rain is falling and temps are sitting at a sticky 92°F, which means the dirt is going to play differently than the morning line suggests — wet-footed horses and speed-biased or sealed tracks can flip a race upside down in a hurry. Keep that in mind all day.

We've got an 8-race card to break down, mixing Claiming and Maiden company in the early going before stepping up to Allowance-level horses in the back half. Three turf routes are on the schedule too — watch that rail closely if the course gets pulled or the ground gets sloppy near the inside.

The card has something for everyone: short-priced standouts for the conservative player, a few vulnerable favorites that open up exotic tickets, and at least one pace scenario on the dirt that sets up beautifully for a closer. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6½-furlong dirt claimer with a clear top-two on paper, but enough mid-pack threats to make the exotics interesting — don't sleep on the pace scenario.

win1Pip SqueekML 2/1

Pip Squeek draws the rail and enters with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin. The morning line of 2/1 suggests the market already respects this one, and a 20% career win rate under Harry Hernandez reinforces that this horse knows how to finish. With an average speed figure of 54 matching the field's upper tier, Pip Squeek has the raw numbers to control or track the pace and still have something left for the stretch run.

place6SecuredML 4/1

Secured (No. 6) checks in with a 82.66 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the race — and Timothy Thornton gets the call for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, a barn that consistently puts horses in position to hit the board. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's solid value for a horse whose profile screams exacta inclusion. The 16% career win rate is honest, but Secured's overall rating suggests more talent than that number tells.

show9Ground ControlML 6/1

Ground Control (No. 9) sits third in our ratings at 54.88 and offers legitimate show appeal at 6/1. Colby J. Hernandez takes the mount for trainer David Bustamante, and an 18% career win rate gives this horse more credibility than most of the back half of the field. At nearly sprint distance on dirt, the 52 average speed figure is workable — Ground Control should be right there grinding away late.

Race 2

9:12 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

An 11-horse maiden claiming field on the turf mile where the top two on the TrackWiz board are separated by just four points — this is a two-horse race at the top with a live closer lurking underneath.

win5Sky WitnessML 7/2

Sky Witness (No. 5) is our top play here at 7/2 on the morning line — a price that actually offers a touch of value given the 86.35 TrackWiz rating, which leads the field. Javier Antonio Hernandez takes the call for trainer John Ney, and the 54 average speed figure is among the best in a turf maiden field where consistency at that level is rare. In a maiden race on grass, pace can be messy early, and a horse with this kind of rating edge often finds room to motor past tiring rivals in the stretch.

place8Minimus MaximusML 2/1

Minimus Maximus (No. 8) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and nearly matches Sky Witness with an 82.19 rating — this is genuinely close at the top. Harry Hernandez picks up the mount for Ronnie P. Ward, and an average speed figure of 54 ties the field's best. The case for using this one in the place slot is simple: even if Sky Witness wins, Minimus Maximus has the raw ability to finish second and justify a trifecta investment.

show3RegardlessML 5/1

Regardless (No. 3) at 5/1 brings a 65.12 rating that gives it a clear edge on the rest of the pack outside the top two. Trainer Alvin Romero sends this one out with Devin H. Magnon in the irons, and a 53 average speed figure is serviceable on a turf mile where the pace often bunches up. As a show play or underneath in exactas, Regardless represents the only logical bridge between the top pair and the bottom of the field.

Race 3

9:39 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't top the TrackWiz ratings in this 5-furlong maiden claimer — there's a real upset scenario brewing with a couple of lightly raced maidens that figure to improve.

win3AwesugarsugarML 7/2

Awesugarsugar (No. 3) leads our ratings at 66.40 despite going off at 7/2 on the morning line, and Timothy Thornton gets the call for trainer Alan Klanfer. The 53 average speed figure is squarely competitive for this short sprint on dirt. In a maiden race, pace is everything over five furlongs, and Awesugarsugar's rating advantage over the favorite, Flash of Fire, makes this a legitimate upset play that isn't even priced like a longshot.

place9Candy Girl MissML 10/1

Candy Girl Miss (No. 9) at 10/1 is the most intriguing underneath play on the card — a 63.18 TrackWiz rating that's second in the field while being priced like a long shot. Juan P. Vargas gets the mount for trainer Jacoby Landry, and a 52 average speed figure is close enough to the top horses to hit the board. For a five-furlong sprint, late closers can get buried — but Candy Girl Miss's rating suggests the talent is there to at least grab a piece.

show1Flash of FireML 7/5

Flash of Fire (No. 1) is the morning-line chalk at 7/5 and carries a 59.33 TrackWiz rating — respectable, but it doesn't top the field. Isaac Castillo has the rail for trainer David Terre, and the 54 average speed figure is among the best in the field. The show slot makes sense here because even if Flash of Fire doesn't win outright, the speed figures and post position suggest a board finish is likely, especially in a field of winless maidens.

TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for all readers today. Pip Squeek tops our list in Race 1 — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating at 2/1 morning line in a 6½-furlong Claiming sprint on a wet dirt track. That kind of figure at a fair price is exactly what we look for on a holiday card when public money tends to chase big names. Sky Witness draws our attention in Race 2, a 1-mile turf Maiden Claiming where the 7/2 line gives you a little breathing room on a horse our models like. And in Race 3, Awesugarsugar is the call in a short 5-furlong Maiden Claiming dash — the rating dips a bit here, so this is a more cautious play, but the price is right if she fires her best effort.

One big-picture angle tying these three together: the wet conditions could compress the field in the early sprints, making exactas with our top picks on top look thin in the win pool but potentially juicy in the exotics. Don't sleep on the place and show payouts either — rain days at smaller ovals have a way of keeping chalk honest.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

One of the tightest maiden special weight fields of the card — three horses within two points on the TrackWiz board means the turf sprint is a genuine photo-finish setup with real exacta and trifecta potential.

win11ShinovarML 7/2

Shinovar (No. 11) noses out the field with an 84.50 TrackWiz rating and goes to the gate at 7/2 — a fair price given the depth of this MSW field on the turf. Colby J. Hernandez has the call for trainer Jayde J. Gelner, and a 54 average speed figure keeps Shinovar in the mix with the leaders on this five-furlong turf sprint. In a maiden special weight, class and natural ability tend to shine through, and Shinovar's rating edge — however slim — points to the top spot.

place1GirldontgoawaymadML 5/2

Girldontgoawaymad (No. 1) is separated from the top pick by just 0.14 rating points — essentially a coin flip between the two at the top of the board. Lane J. Luzzi gets the inside post for trainer Tristan Ashford, and the 55 average speed figure actually leads the field. At 5/2 on the morning line, the market is sweet on this one, and rightfully so — the rail on a short turf sprint can be a real advantage when the early pace shapes up correctly.

show2Crescent SkyML 6/1

Crescent Sky (No. 2) rounds out a very competitive top three at 82.71 — just 1.79 points off the leader — and Jansen Melancon picks up what could be a prime piece for trainer Allen Landry. A 54 average speed figure matches Shinovar and the midfield, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this horse offers real value if the top two beat each other up. For trifecta purposes, Crescent Sky is an essential inclusion.

Race 5

10:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A competitive five-furlong dirt claimer where the TrackWiz top two are separated by less than a quarter point — the pace scenario will likely determine the winner, and there's a live value play hiding in the middle of the morning line.

win2Heart PrintsML 3/1

Heart Prints (No. 2) leads our ratings at 80.04 and carries the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 20% — that's a legitimate winner who knows how to get to the front. Juan P. Vargas gets the call for trainer Samuel Breaux, and a 55 average speed figure ties the field's best. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate favorite who earns the price — a 20% win rate on a horse with top speed figures in a five-furlong sprint on dirt is a strong combination.

place7Theboyz WarningML 8/1

Theboyz Warning (No. 7) is the TrackWiz value play of the race — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 79.79 rating that's a virtual dead heat with the top pick. Harry Hernandez has the mount for trainer Ronnie P. Ward, and a 55 average speed figure and 14% career win rate suggest this horse can run. The morning-line price doesn't match the rating, which is exactly the kind of overlay that makes the place spot a smart investment.

show11Romeo SpikesML 5/2

Romeo Spikes (No. 11) checks in at 5/2 on the morning line with a 71.77 rating and a 13% career win rate — Jansen Melancon takes the call for trainer Randy Degeyter, Jr. A 55 average speed figure ties the field's best, and the 5/2 price is a reflection of market respect. As the show pick, Romeo Spikes provides a logical finishing spot for a horse with speed figures that can compete over five furlongs on the Evangeline dirt.

Race 6

11:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The allowance optional claiming mile on turf is the most class-heavy race of the night, with a field of seasoned horses — several posting 20%-plus career win rates — setting up a potentially heated pace duel with a legitimate upset angle at a price.

win5GoldbrickML 3/1

Goldbrick (No. 5) leads the field with an 82.90 TrackWiz rating and goes off at a fair 3/1 on the morning line. Timothy Thornton rides for the respected W. Bret Calhoun barn — a trainer who knows how to spot horses in the right spot — and a 54 average speed figure keeps Goldbrick right in the mix on a one-mile turf layout. With a 16% career win rate in an allowance field, this horse has earned its credentials at this level.

place1PayneML 8/1

Payne (No. 1) is the value story of this race — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 25% career win rate, which is the highest in the field. Casey Fusilier rides for trainer Allen Landry, and a 55 average speed figure is the best in the race. That win percentage screams class — a horse that wins one in four starts is a dangerous overlay at 8/1, and the place spot here is the minimum investment.

show3Castle IslandML 9/2

Castle Island (No. 3) brings a 27% career win rate — second-best in the field — and a 74.85 TrackWiz rating that slots in third among our rankings. Carlos Perez has the call for trainer Juan Munoz Cano, who also saddles Mr McGregor, giving the barn a double shot at the board. At 9/2, Castle Island is reasonably priced for a horse with the kind of win percentage that demands respect in allowance company on the turf.

Race 7

11:27 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint on dirt that looks like a two-horse affair at the top — the top-rated horse is also the morning-line favorite, but there's a genuine closer with value underneath who could make the exacta interesting.

win4AsthecoldwindblowsML 2/1

Asthecoldwindblows (No. 4) is the class of this field — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 36% career win rate, and a 55 average speed figure that ties the field's best. Isaac Castillo gets the call for trainer Alan Klanfer, and the 2/1 morning line reflects exactly how well-respected this horse is. In an allowance sprint where pace can unravel, a horse with a career win rate over one-in-three has proven it can handle both speed and adversity — this is our strongest play of the night.

place5Gabe's PossumML 9/2

Gabe's Possum (No. 5) is a natural underneath play — an 80.51 rating and 9/2 morning line, with Javier Antonio Hernandez piloting for trainer Antonio Alberto. A 55 average speed figure ties the top of the field, and a 26% career win rate is the mark of a consistent performer. If the pace gets hot early and Asthecoldwindblows gets into a battle, Gabe's Possum is the likeliest beneficiary with the numbers to finish it off.

show2Clearly MajesticML 10/1

Clearly Majestic (No. 2) at 10/1 is our longshot show pick with a 60.96 rating and a 25% career win rate that rivals the top horses in terms of consistency. Casey Fusilier rides for trainer Raymond Prejean, and a 53 average speed figure is close enough to be competitive in the late stages of a six-furlong dirt sprint. At double-digit odds, Clearly Majestic is a legitimate trifecta wheel — the win rate says this horse hits the board more than its price suggests.

Race 8

11:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A 12-horse five-furlong dirt claimer to close out the card — the TrackWiz top pick has a clear rating edge, but several closers with legitimate speed figures are lurking at double-digit prices in a field this deep.

win4My Other HalfML 4/1

My Other Half (No. 4) is the standout play of the final race — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that leads the field by a significant margin, paired with the highest average speed figure in the race at 56. Jansen Melancon gets the mount for the always-dangerous Allen Landry barn, and while an 8% career win rate might give some bettors pause, the raw speed figures tell the real story here. In a five-furlong sprint, raw speed translates directly to results, and My Other Half has the most of it.

place8Ex GonnaML 6/1

Ex Gonna (No. 8) at 6/1 brings a 67.53 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate — Javier Antonio Hernandez takes the call for trainer Eric Ramaekers. A 54 average speed figure is competitive in this field, and the 6/1 morning line represents real value for a horse with the ratings to challenge the leaders. As a place play in the final race of the card, Ex Gonna is a smart inclusion for anyone building a late-race exacta.

show5Paradise RidgeML 5/2

Paradise Ridge (No. 5) is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 with a 66.67 rating — C.J. McMahon rides for trainer Richard L. Mocklin, Jr., who also has a solid record with this type of sprinter. A 55 average speed figure ties several of the better horses in the field, and the market clearly respects this one. As the show pick, Paradise Ridge is the logical safety net — if My Other Half wins and Ex Gonna runs second, this is the horse most likely to close out the trifecta.

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Bottom line: Evangeline has a full slate and slick conditions that demand sharp handicapping today. Our top plays are Pip Squeek (Race 1) and Asthecoldwindblows (Race 7), with the full card — including pace angles, exotics strategy, and our Race 8 Claiming closer — available to subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium to get everything. Good luck out there, and watch that rail.

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