Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 14, 2026

Sunday, June 14, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

Louisville woke up to rain on Sunday and Churchill Downs is feeling every drop of it. With a 79°F, wet afternoon setting the stage, today's 9-race card is the kind of day that separates the sharp money from the guesswork — track bias will be a factor all afternoon, and the horses that can handle a sealed or muddy surface are going to get a serious edge over horses that haven't been tested in the slop.

We've got a diverse card on our hands — four dirt sprints and routes, a pair of turf races that could be in serious jeopardy depending on how much rain Churchill gets before post time, and a mix of conditions ranging from Maiden Special Weight to Starter Allowance. Nine races, plenty of angles, and a few spots where the morning line looks begging to be attacked.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this Starter Allowance mile-and-a-sixteenth on dirt, but the morning line favorite isn't the one our model loves most — setting up a potential overlay situation right out of the gate.

win5C McGriffML 8/5

C McGriff tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12, the highest mark in this field by a meaningful margin, and Tyler Gaffalione is one of the sharper sticks at Churchill Downs. Listed at 8/5 on the morning line, the price reflects the crowd's respect, but the rating edge over the competition is hard to ignore at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. With a 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53, this horse brings consistency to a race where most rivals are either overpriced or unproven at this level.

place3GethsemaneML 2/1

Gethsemane is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a strong 86.63 TrackWiz rating, making the win/place box with C McGriff a logical exacta construction. Luis Saez — a perennial top rider — is in the irons, and trainer Linda Rice has two entries in the race, which often signals stable confidence. The 16% career win rate is modest, but the rating profile says this horse belongs near the top of the order.

show4Paul's RecoveryML 9/2

Paul's Recovery stands out on raw career win percentage — 33% is the best in the field and impossible to overlook in a race where consistency matters. Also trained by Linda Rice, the connections are clearly hot on both their entries today, and having the same barn represented twice adds an interesting pace dynamic. At 9/2 on the morning line with a 57.13 rating, Paul's Recovery offers solid show value and makes a natural exacta/trifecta inclusion.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

A nine-horse maiden field stretching to a mile and a half on turf — a genuine test of stamina for first-time and lightly-raced runners — with two horses bunched tightly atop the ratings and a legitimate value angle lurking at the top of the program.

win6MassML 8/1

Mass sits at the top of the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite a morning line of 8/1, making this the clearest overlay in Race 2. Trainer Michael W. McCarthy is a seasoned conditioner who knows how to spot a horse for the right spot, and the mile-and-a-half turf distance is a patient setup that suits a horse with back class. Ben Curtis has ridden plenty of winners at Churchill, and if McCarthy has this one cranked up for his debut or this surface, 8/1 is a price worth attacking.

place5Pretty TapitML 7/2

Pretty Tapit rates right behind Mass at 79.05 and lands at a more accessible 7/2 on the morning line, with Luis Saez — one of the best turf riders in the country — aboard for trainer Joe Sharp. The Tapit influence in the name is on-theme for turf routes, and Sharp is a capable conditioner who regularly fires first-out on the grass. A tight-rated pair finishing 1-2 is a reasonable outcome here, and this one belongs in your exacta combinations.

show1Don't Look NowML 6/1

Don't Look Now opens at 6/1 with a 57.7 TrackWiz rating — best of the remaining horses outside the top two — and trainer George R. Arnold II is a competent conditioner for this type. Axel Concepcion is a live jockey who's posted solid numbers at Churchill Downs. At a mile and a half, pace scenarios can get scrambled and closers often find their way into the money, making this a sensible show ticket or trifecta piece at a fair price.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The claiming ranks at Churchill produce a seven-horse dirt mile-and-a-sixteenth with a clear ratings leader who's being underestimated by the morning line, plus a pair of mid-price horses bunched so closely in the ratings they could both factor.

win2Little DixieML 7/2

Little Dixie tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 in this claiming field and opens at a very fair 7/2 — not an overlay, but not overbet either. Summer Pauly has been riding with confidence at this meet, and trainer David Jacobson is a consistent presence at this claiming level. A 15% career win rate sounds modest, but the 86-point rating in a field where nobody else clears 78 is a significant cushion — this horse is the class of the field on our numbers.

place7I Had That One TooML 4/1

I Had That One Too comes in at a 77.38 rating and 4/1 on the morning line, just a tick above stablemate-in-spirit Tiffany Twist at 77.31, which makes separating them a coin flip on ratings alone. The edge here is trainer Anna Navarrete, who has shown a knack for getting maiden and claiming horses ready at this level. At 4/1 with an 11% career win rate, this horse represents solid place value in what should be a competitive mid-race pace battle.

show6Tiffany TwistML 5/2

Tiffany Twist at 5/2 is the morning line's second choice and rates third on TrackWiz at 77.31 — nearly identical to I Had That One Too. Gabriel Saez is a capable rider who tends to get horses settled early in route races, and trainer Carlos Santamaria keeps his horses sharp. The tight clustering of these two mid-field horses — both rating in the 77s — makes boxing the top three in the exacta or keying them underneath Little Dixie in the trifecta the smart exotic play.

The first three races are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today, and they're worth your full attention. C McGriff opens the card in a Starter Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt — that's a distance that rewards horses who can settle and grind, and with a wet surface likely to favor closers or horses with proven wet-track form, this one sets the tone early. Our model has C McGriff rated 89.12, the highest mark of the free picks, and that 8/5 morning line suggests the market agrees — though there may still be some value depending on how the tote shakes out at post time.

Race 2 is a Maiden Special Weight going a long 1 1/2 miles on the turf — keep a close eye on whether that surface is even rulable by post time given the ongoing rain. Mass comes in at a juicy 8/1 morning line, which screams value play if the turf holds up. Then in Race 3, Little Dixie (7/2, rated 86.35) takes on a Claiming field going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Claimers in wet conditions often come down to who wants it most — and our numbers say Little Dixie is best positioned in this field.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on dirt with a dominant ratings standout who's being sent off at a generous morning line price — this looks like the kind of race where the public may underestimate a horse with a sharp speed figure advantage.

win3HesperML 5/2

Hesper leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — nearly 25 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and posts the field's highest average speed figure at 55. Tyler Gaffalione riding for Gregory D. Foley is a sharp combination, and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, that speed advantage tends to play out quickly and decisively. The 5/2 morning line is a bit shorter than we'd love, but when the ratings gap is this wide, there's still value in making Hesper the cornerstone of your exotics.

place2Pop PaulML 9/2

Pop Paul rates second in the field at 63.10 and comes in at 9/2 on the morning line, which represents genuine value given his position in the ratings hierarchy. A 16% career win rate is respectable in the claiming ranks, and trainer Genaro Garcia keeps his horses competitive in these short-field sprints. If Hesper gets caught wide or breaks a step slow, Pop Paul should be right there to collect a share at a price that makes the exacta pay.

show4Election NightML 4/1

Election Night checks in at a 49.77 rating and 4/1 on the morning line — a fair price for a horse who profiles as a pace-presser in a sprint. Trainer Shelly R. Radosevich has had this horse running in similar spots, and Jane Elliott in the irons is a capable jockey who can get a horse into a good position early in a six-furlong race. As a trifecta fill, 4/1 is a reasonable price to include in combinations anchored by Hesper.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at seven furlongs draws a first-time-out-heavy field where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top choice, but the real story is a legitimate value angle hiding at 12/1 that deserves exotic attention.

win3In for a SpinML 7/2

In for a Spin rates highest in this maiden claiming field at 86.35 and is sent out at a reasonable 7/2 on the morning line. Victor R. Carrasco is a proven rider who's won at this track, and trainer Caio Caramori has shown the ability to get maiden claimers ready to fire fresh. In a field where several horses are making their debut or have limited history, a horse that grades this far ahead on TrackWiz numbers in a seven-furlong dirt sprint is the kind of spot where our top pick genuinely warrants confidence.

place2NoroomformischiefML 12/1

Noroomformischief is our value play here at 12/1 — the second-highest rating in the field at 62.5, and the morning line substantially overstates the perceived gap between this horse and the chalk. Trainer John Ennis operates under the radar but knows how to place maiden claimers, and Danny Sheehy is a competent jockey who can find position in a sprint. At 12/1 this horse represents outstanding place and exacta value if the public ignores a legitimate ratings contender.

show1Red RazeML 8/1

Red Raze rates third in the field at 61.09 and opens at 8/1, making the top three in TrackWiz ratings a natural trifecta combination. Trainer Ian R. Wilkes is a consistent presence in the maiden ranks at Churchill Downs, and Cristian A. Torres has the rail post, which can be an advantage or a headache in a sprint — it'll depend on the early break. As a show bet or trifecta piece at 8/1, Red Raze gives you solid coverage at a fair price.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open thirteen-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt with marquee trainers, multiple first-time starters, and no single horse dominating the ratings — this is a race where the morning line and our model tell very different stories.

win10This Is Your TimeML 8/1

This Is Your Time tops the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 in what is genuinely a chaotic field, and the 8/1 morning line makes this an overlay on our numbers. Tyler Gaffalione is one of the best riders at this meet and trainer Gregory D. Foley has shown a pattern of sending horses out ready on debut, particularly in sprints. With an average speed figure of 55 — among the highest in this field — This Is Your Time has the tactical speed profile to be prominent early in a six-furlong maiden sprint.

place6EleosML 8/1

Eleos rates second on the TrackWiz board at 79.05 and also opens at 8/1, which reinforces the sense that the public is going to funnel money toward the bigger barn names rather than let our top two horses reflect their true ratings. Martin Garcia has been a capable pilot for trainer Carlos Munoz, and an average speed figure of 55 gives Eleos the gas to compete at the front end of a six-furlong sprint. The near-identical ratings between our top two picks make boxing them in exactas a smart, low-risk play.

show7MumdoggieML 6/1

Mumdoggie rates third at 75.94 with a 6/1 morning line, ridden by Luis Saez for trainer Michael J. Maker — a combination that carries real weight at Churchill Downs. Maker is one of the more respected conditioners at this meet and consistently has his first-time starters or returning runners ready to fire, and Saez rarely accepts mounts he doesn't like. An average speed figure of 55 and a strong ratings position makes Mumdoggie the logical show play and a solid underneath piece in multi-race exotics.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The five-and-a-half furlong turf allowance optional claiming features a horse with elite ratings and a 41% career win rate — rare in any field — but there's enough depth in the mid-tier to make the underneath structure interesting.

win3NobalsML 2/1

Nobals is the standout here with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 41% career win rate — that's not a typo, that's a horse who wins nearly half his starts. Gerardo Corrales takes the mount for Larry Rivelli, a trainer who knows how to manage allowance/optional claiming horses on turf, and the 2/1 morning line fairly reflects the public's respect for this horse. At 5.5 furlongs on grass, a 57 average speed figure says Nobals has the tactical quickness to rate just off a pace duel and pounce — this is a confident top selection.

place2DhababML 7/2

Dhabab rates second at 83.67 and comes in at 7/2, with Tyler Gaffalione making for a high-powered rider/trainer combo alongside Edward Vaughan. A 16% career win rate understates this horse's competitiveness in turf sprints at this level, and the 57 average speed figure matches Nobals at the top of the speed chart. If pace becomes honest early, Dhabab looks like the natural horse to run Nobals down — or lead wire-to-wire at a fair price.

show8ScriptML 6/1

Script opens at 6/1 with an 80.02 rating — third-best in the field — and represents legitimate value at a price that respects the top two but doesn't punish you if things get scrambled. Trainer George R. Arnold II and jockey Edgar Morales are a workmanlike combination that tends to get horses fired up for spots like this, and an average speed figure of 56 keeps Script in striking range of the pace. As a show bet and trifecta piece, Script at 6/1 is among the better prices in the race given the ratings profile.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Eight fillies and mares square off in a dirt starter allowance at a mile and a sixteenth, and while the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a horse at a fair price, the real intrigue is a pair of double-digit longshots that rate out far better than their morning lines suggest.

win3Speed SkaterML 4/1

Speed Skater leads the field with a 79.32 TrackWiz rating and carries a 40% career win rate — the second-best win percentage in the field and a number that screams consistent performer. Trainer Cody W. Axmaker doesn't get the splashy headlines but has a history of placing horses smartly in starter conditions, and Luan Machado is a capable pilot at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. At 4/1, the price is honest and the combination of ratings leadership plus exceptional career win rate makes Speed Skater the clear top selection.

place8Killa SallyML 10/1

Killa Sally opens at 10/1 but rates second in the field at 76.88 — a significant overlay given that gap between morning line and TrackWiz position. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard for Kenneth G. McPeek is a pairing that knows how to stalk a pace and pounce late on a Churchill dirt route, and a 14% career win rate in starter allowance company is workable. At 10/1, Killa Sally is a prime place-bet candidate and the kind of horse that can blow up an exacta at a huge number.

show7Classic GlideML 6/1

Classic Glide rates third at 67.99 and opens at 6/1 with Tyler Gaffalione — one of the premier jockeys at this meet — taking the mount for trainer Robert Medina. A 12% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 puts this horse in the mix without dominating it, and Gaffalione's ability to find cover and save ground in route races gives Classic Glide a tactical edge. The 6/1 price makes this a solid show bet and a logical underneath runner in trifecta tickets keyed on Speed Skater.

Race 9

8:55 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The closer on Sunday's card is a sprawling 15-horse turf starter allowance at a mile — a perfect storm for chaos — but our model identifies a clear one-two punch at the top of the ratings, plus a massive longshot overlay that demands exotic attention.

win7HeartbeatML 3/1

Heartbeat tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.02 and draws Luis Saez for trainer Brian A. Lynch — a combination that has thrived in turf routes at Churchill Downs. The 3/1 morning line reflects solid public confidence, and with a 16% career win rate in a 15-horse field, the numbers translate well. An average speed figure of 53 on turf puts this horse right in the thick of the pace scenario, and Lynch is the type of conditioner who sharpens his horses specifically for spots like this.

place4DaddarioML 9/2

Daddario rates second at 81.32 with a striking 33% career win rate — outstanding for a horse in starter allowance conditions — and Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount for D. Whitworth Beckman. The 9/2 morning line is a fair price for a horse who rates this highly and wins a third of its starts, and an average speed figure of 55 on turf gives Daddario a genuine edge in finishing speed. The Heartbeat/Daddario exacta is the natural 1-2 combination to build your ticket around.

show6PromisemeanempireML 20/1

Promisemeanempire is the longshot angle of the race, opening at 20/1 with a 62.29 TrackWiz rating that makes it the third-best horse in the field on our numbers — a massive disconnect from that morning line price. Trainer Matt A. Shirer doesn't command the same marquee attention as some rivals here, but Francisco Arrieta knows how to steer a horse through traffic in a big field turf route. A 11% career win rate and 53 average speed figure on grass gives this horse every tool to sneak into the money at a price that could make your trifecta pay handsomely — this is the kind of overlay that separates sharp tickets from crowd tickets.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's Churchill card is a weather-shaped puzzle, and that's exactly the kind of day where preparation pays. C McGriff, Mass, and Little Dixie give free users a strong three-race foundation to build from. Subscribers get the full picture — pace scenarios, surface contingencies, and exotic strategies for all nine races. Don't play this wet card blind. Go premium and get every angle before the gates open.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3