Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 13, 2026

Saturday, June 13, 202611 racesChurchill Downs

Churchill Downs rolls out an 11-race card on a warm, partly-cloudy Saturday afternoon — 81 degrees and no rain in sight, which should keep the main track fast and the turf course in prime shape. Ideal conditions for the horses, and honestly pretty ideal conditions for betting too.

Today's card has a little of everything: a pair of stakes races anchoring the back half, a turf mile for the allowance-optional crowd, maiden sprints for the first-timers, and some claiming action up front to get the blood pumping. Eleven races, plenty of angles, and our TrackWiz analysis has been running all morning.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader, with our top picks on Mirage, Scuffle, and For the Win. The remaining eight races — including both stakes — are available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The favorite wears a big morning-line number but our top-rated horse is actually sitting at 2/1 — this claiming mile looks like a two-horse battle at the top, with the 6/5 shot potentially overbet.

win1MirageML 2/1

Mirage draws the rail for Florent Geroux and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.96 — a meaningful edge over the rest of the field. Norm Casse conditions this one, and the Casse barn knows how to spot a horse in the right spot. The 2/1 morning line represents fair value given that edge, and an average speed figure of 54 ties him for the top mark in the race.

place2WeaponizedML 9/2

Weaponized sits second in our ratings at 84.90 and carries an 11% career win rate — not flashy, but consistent enough to hold a piece. Amir Mendoza gets the call for the Genaro Garcia barn, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here if Mirage controls things up front and this one closes into the action.

show6Miracle MarkML 6/5

Miracle Mark is the 6/5 morning-line favorite, but our ratings peg him third in the field at 78.85 — that gap from the top makes him a show hedge rather than a win bet at short odds. Philip D'Amato ships in with Francisco Arrieta aboard, and the 54 average speed figure is competitive, but backing him at chalk prices to win feels like leaving money on the table.

Race 2

5:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden claiming sprint with no prior winners in the field — the form book is thin, making ratings and pace scenario everything in a race like this.

win3ScuffleML 3/1

Scuffle checks in as our top-rated entrant at 84.08 despite going off at 3/1 on the morning line — a slight overlay given the field's overall uncertainty. Philip D'Amato has Francisco Arrieta in the irons, a trainer-jockey combination that knows how to get a debut or early effort maiden home in a sprint. The rating edge here is the largest gap between 1st and 2nd in the field, which in maiden company carries real weight.

place6MizzouML 5/2

Mizzou gets the second spot in our analysis at a rating of 80.31, and Jaime Torres rides for Linda Rice — a trainer who consistently places horses competitively in maiden claiming company. She's installed at 5/2, making her the morning-line favorite, and that kind of market support in a maiden field is worth respecting, especially with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top of the field.

show5TimsML 8/1

Tims is the value inclusion here at 8/1 on the morning line, sitting third in our ratings at 79.79 — just a tick below the top two but well clear of the rest. Troy Newton sends him out with Edgar Morales up, and at those odds in a maiden claiming sprint, he's the kind of show price that makes multi-race exotics much more affordable. If the top two lock horns early, a closer profile could benefit.

Race 3

5:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Baby race alert — a field of first-time starters going 4.5 furlongs means pure projection, with trainer and workout pedigree doing most of the talking.

win4For the WinML 5/2

For the Win breaks from post 4 for George Weaver and Declan Cannon, landing at 5/2 on the morning line with our top rating of 57.50 in this debut sprint. Weaver is a sharp conditioner who puts first-time starters in position to fire, and the combination of top rating and a fair morning line makes this the most logical win pick in a field that is essentially all question marks. No prior speed figures to lean on, so the Weaver angle and our projection model carry the argument.

place1CountthetrueML 7/2

Countthetrue draws the rail for Wayne Catalano and Victor Carrasco, rated 55.83 — the second-best mark in a very compressed field. Catalano is a Churchill staple who understands the bias at this track, and the inside post in a short sprint can be a gift if this one breaks cleanly. At 7/2, there's a touch of value relative to the morning-line favorite.

show6Mels DaisyML 4/1

Mels Daisy gets Florent Geroux for John Hancock and sits at 4/1 on the morning line with a 55.00 rating — right in the mix in what is essentially a pick-your-poison debut field. Geroux is one of the most experienced riders at Churchill Downs and can coax a clean trip out of a green horse. As a show play in a maiden sprint, the 4/1 price makes her an attractive exotic inclusion.

The early card gives us some interesting spots to work with. Mirage tops our ratings in Race 1 at 85.96 — strong for a one-mile claiming opener — and draws our best-bet nod at a reasonable 2/1 morning line. In Race 2, Scuffle figures as the one to beat in a 6½-furlong maiden claimer at 3/1, a price that should offer some value if the crowd doesn't overbet the morning line. Race 3 is a 4½-furlong maiden special weight sprint — the short distance on dirt tends to favor early speed, and For the Win at 5/2 checks the boxes our model prioritizes in these short-field juvenile-style sprints.

One theme to watch across the free races: with the track expected to be fast and no weather interference, early speed has a real chance to dictate terms all day. Keep that pace bias in the back of your mind as you work through the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Don't Say It looks like the class of this field on paper, but the question is whether the 6/5 chalk gets beaten by pace or trips up a hidden live longshot in a 6.5-furlong claiming dash.

win2Don't Say ItML 6/5

Don't Say It is the standout here — a 89.71 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the competition, backed by a 30% career win rate that is the best among horses who have run. Edgar Morales gets the call for Jordan Blair, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the field-best alongside three others. At 6/5, the price isn't generous, but the ratings separation is real — this is one of those spots where fading the favorite costs more than it pays.

place4Sassy and BoldML 7/2

Sassy and Bold rates second in the field at 76.95 and owns a 28% career win rate — the second-best in the field. Declan Cannon picks up the mount for Brian Knippenberg, and with an average speed of 55 matching the top mark, she should be competitive throughout. If anything goes wrong with the chalk, Sassy and Bold is positioned to capitalize.

show5Talkin in CursiveML 9/2

Talkin in Cursive rounds out our picks at a 66.90 rating with a 23% career win rate and an average speed of 55 — she fits the pace profile in a field of 6.5-furlong sprinters. Jaime Torres gets the ride for Matt Shirer, and at 9/2, there's genuine show value if the race shape sets up for a stalker. A solid exotic anchor in the bottom position.

Race 5

6:47 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 3/16 mi · Dirt

A contentious allowance route with a dual morning-line battle between two co-favorites — Pagode and Render Judgment — but our ratings see a clear pecking order that the tote board doesn't quite reflect.

win5PagodeML 9/5

Pagode is our top pick at 88.83 — the highest rating in the field by a substantial margin — and breaks at 9/5 for Brad Cox with Axel Concepcion in the irons. Cox is one of the premier conditioners in the country at this level, and the 54 average speed figure leads the field. Over 1 3/16 miles on dirt, pace stamina matters, and Pagode's rating edge suggests he has the tools to handle the added ground.

place2Different GravyML 5/1

Different Gravy is the value angle in this race, going off at 5/1 with an impressive 40% career win rate — second only to Consolidated in the field. Mitchell Murrill rides for Eddie Kenneally, and while the 73.58 rating puts him well below Pagode, the win percentage screams horse who fires fresh and competes hard. In a field with multiple question marks, a 40% winner at 5/1 is hard to ignore for the place.

show1ChillaxML 15/1

Chillax is our show selection at 15/1 on the morning line — a genuine longshot angle. The 64.29 rating isn't flashy, but David Jacobson also saddles House United in this same race, suggesting he has confidence in at least one of them. Rafael Bejarano is an experienced hand in routes, and if the pace scenario gets honest over 1 3/16 miles and a closer gets loose, Chillax could be the name you're happy to see in the exotic payouts.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Ten first-time starters going five furlongs — this maiden special weight is a projections game, and the Mark Casse barn holds two bullets in what looks like a competitive but wide-open sprint.

win7Epic FashionistaML 5/2

Epic Fashionista is our top pick at 57.50 — the highest rating in the field — and breaks at 5/2 for Mark Casse with Francisco Arrieta up. Casse is a multiple championship trainer who has a strong record placing debut runners in winning positions, and having Arrieta in the irons adds tactical experience. In a field where no horse has a published speed figure, trainer pedigree and program rating carry maximum weight.

place8House Boat PartyML 4/1

House Boat Party draws post 8 for Brian Lynch with Florent Geroux, rated 55.00 — second in the field. Lynch is a capable conditioner at Churchill, and Geroux's experience getting horses to relax in their first start is a real asset in a maiden sprint. At 4/1, there's overlay potential here if the Casse entry attracts heavier-than-deserved action.

show5SmidgeonML 9/2

Smidgeon gets the Steve Asmussen-Keith Asmussen family combination — always worth noting when the conditioner puts his son aboard, it often signals genuine intent. Rated 54.17 and going at 9/2, Smidgeon sits third in our ratings and rounds out a logical top three in what is a genuinely unpredictable first-out sprint. Solid show inclusion in horizontal wagers.

Race 7

7:53 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Smiling Ellie looks like the class of this turf allowance optional claiming field despite not being the morning-line favorite — the pace scenario on grass over a mile could play right into her hands.

win2Smiling EllieML 3/1

Smiling Ellie is our top-rated horse in Race 7 at 87.08 and goes at 3/1 for Mark Casse with Francisco Arrieta aboard — a rider who already has a live mount in Race 6 and figures to be in good rhythm. A 25% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure both rank well in this field. On turf at one mile, Casse's horses love to settle and pounce late, and this profile fits that pattern exactly.

place3She's Lookin LuckyML 5/2

She's Lookin Lucky rates third in the field at 69.40 and draws the 3-hole for Matt Shirer with Florent Geroux — the same Geroux who figures to get a feel for the turf course early in the card. A 53 average speed figure and a 5/2 morning line make her one of the shorter-priced place plays of the day. The 12% career win rate is modest, but on turf where pace flow and trip luck matter more, she fits neatly in the exacta.

show5MiwaML 9/2

Miwa is an interesting show inclusion at 9/2 for Joe Sharp with Axel Concepcion. Her 60 average speed figure is the highest in the field by a wide margin — that kind of raw number on turf can translate to a powerful mid-race move if the pace is honest. The 54.93 rating and 14% career win rate suggest she's still finding her best, but at nearly 5/1, she's a worthwhile exotic piece.

Race 8

8:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lunar Module goes to post at 9/2 as our top choice over the 8/5 morning-line favorite Zambezi — this claiming race over an unusual 7.5-furlong trip could see early pace pressure shake up the chalk's plan.

win3Lunar ModuleML 9/2

Lunar Module tops our ratings at 84.90 and draws post 3 for Norm Casse with Francisco Arrieta — a pairing that has shown up in earlier races today, suggesting the barn is firing on all cylinders. A 56 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and the 9/2 morning line represents real overlay value against a 13% career win rate that may undersell current form. The 7.5-furlong distance is a tricky trip that often rewards horses with tactical speed and stamina, which Lunar Module appears to have.

place9ZambeziML 8/5

Zambezi is the chalk at 8/5 for Michael Maker with Florent Geroux — a power barn-jockey combo that demands respect. The 78.85 rating and 54 average speed figure are both legitimate, and Maker horses at Churchill rarely show up unprepared. We have Lunar Module rated ahead, but Zambezi's place probability is high enough that fading him entirely in the exotics would be a mistake.

show2Honky Tonk HighwayML 4/1

Honky Tonk Highway rates third in the field at 71.44 with Gabriel Saez aboard for Joe Sharp. A 55 average speed figure and 15% career win rate are competitive for this level, and the 4/1 morning line gives show bettors a fair return. In a ten-horse field going an odd distance, pace dynamics get complicated — Honky Tonk Highway profiles as a stalker type who could be running on at the wire.

Race 9

8:56 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stakes company over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and Brad Cox's Sneaky Good carries the highest TrackWiz rating despite not being the morning-line favorite — Point of Reference at 10/1 is the longshot angle worth your attention.

win6Sneaky GoodML 3/1

Sneaky Good tops the field at 87.08 for Brad Cox with Jaime Torres in the irons, and a 40% career win rate makes him one of the most accomplished horses in the field. Cox is one of the most respected stakes trainers in the country, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix at this level. The 3/1 morning line offers actual value for a horse with this profile in a stakes, and our analysis firmly points here.

place5Percy's BarML 7/5

Percy's Bar is the 7/5 morning-line favorite with Luan Machado for Ben Colebrook, and a 42% career win rate is hard to dismiss — that's a horse that wins almost half the time he runs. Rated 76.97 — second in the field — he'll be tough to run down if he gets loose on the lead or sits a perfect trip. At short odds, win value is limited, but place money is very likely to cash.

show7Point of ReferenceML 10/1

Point of Reference is our show selection at 10/1 for Chad Brown with Florent Geroux — and any time Brown ships a horse to Churchill for a stakes race, it pays to ask why. A 66% career win rate is the second-highest in the field and is remarkable for any stakes horse. Rated 70.17 and going at double-digit odds, this is the kind of horse that quietly lands in the exotics and makes your ticket a monster.

Race 10

9:28 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

Burnham Square looks like a near-lock at 2/5 on the morning line, but the real intrigue in this 1 3/8-mile turf stakes is finding the horse that can run him down — Echo Lane at 10/1 is our best shot.

win1Burnham SquareML 2/5

Burnham Square is the prohibitive favorite at 2/5 for Ian Wilkes with Brian Hernandez Jr., and the 81.49 TrackWiz rating combined with a 38% career win rate makes the confidence level high. A 56 average speed figure is the best in the field, and Hernandez Jr. is an elite turf jockey at Churchill Downs. At 2/5, win betting is a math question — the place and show prices on the exotics around him is where the real structure lies.

place5Echo LaneML 10/1

Echo Lane is our value play at 10/1 for Rohan Crichton with Francisco Arrieta — a 27% career win rate and a 76.88 rating make him the second-best rated horse in the field. A 55 average speed figure is competitive at this distance, and 1 3/8 miles on turf rewards horses that can sustain a pace over a long way. At 10/1, the place overlay here is substantial if Burnham Square runs his race and Echo Lane is the one chasing him home.

show2Parchment PartyML 6/1

Parchment Party goes for William Mott with Junior Alvarado and carries a 71.36 rating with a 46% career win rate — that win percentage is the highest in the field by a considerable margin. Mott horses in stakes spots at Churchill tend to be very live, and the 6/1 morning line reflects some market respect. As a show inclusion in a field anchored by a heavy favorite, Parchment Party at 6/1 is a high-probability exotic piece.

Race 11

9:59 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 16-horse maiden special weight field to close the card — Bob Baffert's Kaykay draws the most attention, but this is a wide-open race where a big field and debut unknowns create real exotic opportunity.

win14KaykayML 5/2

Kaykay is our top selection at 57.50 — the highest rating in this massive field — and goes at 5/2 for Bob Baffert with Rafael Bejarano. Baffert's first-time starters at Churchill Downs have long been among the most feared debuts in the country, and the morning-line position suggests the market agrees. No prior speed figure to cite, but the Baffert-Bejarano connection in a maiden special weight sprint is a combination that routinely fires on debut.

place12Epic Proud MaryML 3/1

Epic Proud Mary draws a strong rating of 56.67 and gets Florent Geroux for Brian Lynch — a trainer who has already shown up multiple times on today's card and clearly has his horses sharp. Going at 3/1 on the morning line, she's second in our ratings and profiles as the most likely horse to run Kaykay down if the Baffert entry encounters any trouble. An 'A' effort from Lynch-Geroux in a debut sprint is very much on the table.

show5Via ArtistaML 4/1

Via Artista rates 55.00 — third in the field — with Axel Concepcion riding for Cherie DeVaux at 4/1. DeVaux is a trainer who takes care with debut runners and Concepcion is in excellent form with multiple mounts today. In a 16-horse field, getting a 4/1 show price on a horse rated in the top three is solid value, and Via Artista rounds out a logical trifecta key in the nightcap.

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Bottom line: Churchill Downs is set up beautifully today — fast track, firm turf, warm sun, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping. Mirage, Scuffle, and For the Win are your free best bets to kick things off. For the full picture — including our takes on Sneaky Good, Burnham Square, and the exotic ticket builds — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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