Daily Picks

Churchill Downs Picks & Predictions — June 12, 2026

Friday, June 12, 20269 racesChurchill Downs

It's a beautiful Friday afternoon at Churchill Downs — 78°F under partly cloudy skies, which means the turf course should be playing firm and fast. Ideal conditions for the three grass races on today's nine-race card, and the dirt looks like it'll be in great shape throughout the afternoon too.

Today's card is a nice mix of claiming, maiden, and allowance company spread across both surfaces. You've got sprint specialists squaring off against route horses, a couple of maiden fields where the right longshot can blow the ticket wide open, and some turf sprints that tend to be pace-dependent puzzles. In other words — plenty to dig into.

TrackWiz has rated all nine races and flagged the top picks. Three races are fully unlocked for everyone, and six more are available to subscribers with full analysis.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A clear top-rating standout opens the card, but a trio of horses clustered in the mid-60s to low-70s makes the underneath spots genuinely competitive in this 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer.

win1Uncle EvcoML 7/5

Uncle Evco is the class of this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is more than 18 points clear of the next closest rival. Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons is never a bad thing, and Joe Sharp is a trainer who knows how to have a horse ready to fire. At 7/5 on the morning line, the juice won't be great, but this looks like a race where the favorite earns it.

place6Magic GrantML 4/1

Magic Grant at 4/1 is the most intriguing underneath piece, posting a solid 70.77 rating that ranks second in the field. Thomas Van Berg horses can be live at a price, and an average speed figure of 53 matches several rivals here, keeping him very much in the mix for a piece.

show4HigginsvilleML 8/1

Higginsville at 8/1 looks like nice show-ticket value to round out the exotics. A rating of 65.36 puts her squarely in the conversation for a spot check, and if the pace gets contentious up front, Jane Elliott can navigate her into the frame late.

Race 2

5:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where the morning-line chalk isn't the highest-rated horse — that disconnect creates a genuine value opportunity on a horse the crowd might underestimate.

win5Next TimeML 8/1

Next Time checks in with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79, which is notable because the morning line has her at 8/1 — that's a meaningful gap between our model and the oddsmaker. Ben Curtis has been a solid presence on the Churchill circuit, and a 53 average speed figure is competitive in this maiden claiming field. If the public overlooks her in favor of the shorter-priced horses, this could be where the real money is made.

place2Joe's CandyML 7/2

Joe's Candy brings the second-best rating (75.91) and the best average speed figure in the field at 55. The Asmussen barn — with Keith J. Asmussen up — is always worth noting in a maiden race, as Steve Asmussen consistently ranks among the elite trainers at Churchill Downs in terms of win percentage. She's on the short end of the morning line at 7/2, which tells you the connections are confident.

show4Don's Last RideML 3/1

Don's Last Ride draws the Irad Ortiz, Jr./Joe Sharp combo, which is one of the more potent one-two punches in the business right now. A rating of 57.98 and an average speed of 51 puts him behind the top two on paper, but that jockey-trainer tandem alone warrants a show ticket in a maiden race where form is always uncertain.

Race 3

5:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Two horses separate themselves from the pack on the turf — this allowance sprint over 5 1/2 furlongs looks like a match race at the top, with the rest of the field playing for third.

win3Lit ShipML 9/5

Lit Ship tops our ratings at 88.83 and brings the best average speed figure of the top contenders at 56, which plays well in a short turf sprint where raw pace matters. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call for the Joe Sharp barn — that combination carries significant weight, especially on the lawn at Churchill. A career win rate of 25% shows this horse knows how to get the job done, and at 9/5, she's a deserving favorite.

place7Perfect FigureML 3/1

Perfect Figure is the legitimate threat at 3/1, posting a rating of 84.66 and the field's top average speed figure at 57. Wesley Ward is one of the elite turf sprint trainers in North America — his horses are almost always sharp on grass, and Jose L. Ortiz is a rider who knows exactly how to place a horse in a short field. If Lit Ship has any chink in the armor, this is where it gets exposed.

show8Victor ValleyML 5/1

Victor Valley at 5/1 is the logical show ticket to round out the exotic tickets. A rating of 69.64 puts him third in the field, and an average speed of 55 is right in line with the top competitors here. Israel Acevedo's horse may find himself in a comfortable stalking position with two pace-pressers ahead, which sets up nicely for a late spot in the frame.

Our three free races cover a solid range of what today's card has to offer. Uncle Evco opens the day in Race 1 — a 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer — with a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 and morning line favoritism at 7/5. He's our highest-rated pick on the card and worth anchoring any early multi-race plays. In Race 2, maiden claiming sprinters go 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, and we're on Next Time at 8/1 morning line — a genuine value angle our model flagged with a 79.79 rating. Don't sleep on the price there. Race 3 takes things to the turf with a 5 1/2-furlong allowance sprint, where Lit Ship (9/5, 88.83 rating) figures to thrive on a firm, fast grass course like we're expecting today.

The early turf and the opening dirt route together set up some interesting early Pick 3 and Pick 4 structure. The firm turf angle is worth leaning on across the card — watch how the grass races develop.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:13 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The ratings tell a stark story in this seven-furlong dirt claimer — one horse stands well above the rest, making the real question whether the pace scenario sets him up for a wire-to-wire or a late run.

win7Prince of BroadwayML 7/2

Prince of Broadway is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35, a full 25 points ahead of the field's third-best horse. Brad Cox is one of the premier conditioners in the country, and sliding Irad Ortiz, Jr. into the irons signals confidence from the barn. A 33% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 back up what the rating says — this horse is simply better than his rivals today.

place1Nightmare FuelML 3/1

Nightmare Fuel is our place pick at 3/1, backed by a 33% career win rate that matches the top selection. The Joe Sharp/Jose L. Ortiz tandem is worth respecting, and a rating of 61.78 puts him clearly second in our model. He figures to be close to the pace at seven furlongs and could be tough to shake if Prince of Broadway doesn't fire at peak.

show4LlampML 5/1

Llamp gives Luis Saez a live mount at 5/1 with the field's co-best average speed figure of 55 and a solid 59.46 rating. The Norm Casse barn has been active and sharp this meet, and a 20% career win rate suggests this horse finds the board often enough to warrant inclusion in tri and superfecta tickets.

Race 5

6:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

An all-debut maiden special weight sprint is essentially a puzzle — with no speed figures to lean on across the board, trainer and jockey connections become the most important handicapping tools in the box.

win3Never SleepML 7/2

Never Sleep leads our ratings at 55.83 and draws the morning line of 7/2, suggesting the market respects this horse's connections. Gerardo Corrales gets the call for Larry Rivelli, and in a first-out maiden sprint, trainer intent is everything — Rivelli shipping to Churchill is a signal worth heeding. With no prior speed figures available for any runner in the field, the edge goes to horses whose connections have a demonstrated ability to get juveniles ready first time out.

place6GreenwellML 4/1

Greenwell at 4/1 is the most likely alternative, sitting just a fraction behind Never Sleep with a rating of 55.00. Mark Casse putting Jose L. Ortiz up is a serious declaration of confidence — that's a top jockey on a horse from a top barn, and Casse has a well-documented ability to send first-timers out sharp. If the favorite gets away from the field early, Greenwell has the talent to chase it down.

show4Grand YauponML 9/2

Grand Yaupon gives us the Asmussen one-two punch at 9/2 — Keith J. Asmussen rides for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, and that family combination in a first-out race often means the horse has been doing something right at home. A rating of 54.17 is firmly in the middle of the top cluster, and in a wide-open debut race, show tickets on well-connected runners make a lot of sense.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Three legitimate contenders are bunched within four rating points at the top of this turf allowance optional claiming field, setting up a quality race where the winner could come from any of the top profiles.

win2Baby MaxML 7/2

Baby Max leads our ratings at 86.35 and brings a 25% career win rate to the table in a field where that kind of consistency stands out. Adam Beschizza is a rider who thrives on the Churchill turf course, and trainer Kelsey Danner has this horse positioned perfectly at 7/2 on the morning line. An average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix, and the overall profile screams 'horse ready to run his race.'

place7Captain ChoochiesML 5/1

Captain Choochies at 5/1 is only slightly behind the top selection with a rating of 82.89 and the field's best average speed figures tied at 55. Florent Geroux is a proven grass rider, and George Papaprodromou trains turf horses with a 26% career win rate for this horse — that kind of winning consistency is hard to ignore. If pace unravels up front, Choochies could be the one sweeping through late.

show3Judge DavisML 4/1

Judge Davis at 4/1 slots in third with a rating of 80.52, and the Irad Ortiz, Jr./Michael Maker combination on turf is as formidable as it gets. Maker is one of the leading turf trainers in the country, and Judge Davis's average speed figure of 55 keeps him firmly competitive. In a race where the top three are separated by only about six rating points, all three are legitimate show pieces.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite carries a rating that's actually third in this maiden claiming sprint — meaning the market and our model disagree, and that's exactly where sharp bettors find their edge.

win7Whispering CharmML 7/2

Whispering Charm tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, more than 13 points clear of the next rival, yet the morning line has her at 7/2 — not the chalk. Peter Miller is a trainer with a well-established ability to win maiden races, and Assael Espinoza gives him a capable jockey to execute. An average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this field, and we fully expect the market to correct toward her by post time.

place2Cloud Number NineML 8/1

Cloud Number Nine is the sneaky play at 8/1 — a rating of 72.93 that ranks second in the field is being overlooked by the oddsmakers, and that gap between morning-line price and model rating is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. An average speed of 54 matches the top selections, and Francisco Arrieta for the Brian Williamson barn could have this filly sitting just off the pace and ready to pounce.

show5Nola LouiseML 6/1

Nola Louise at 6/1 earns the third spot with a 65.31 rating and an average speed of 54 — she's not far off the top two on raw numbers. Danny Sheehy gets the call for Troy Newton, and in a maiden claiming field where form can be hard to establish, a horse with credible speed figures and a mid-range price is a comfortable show play for the exotic tickets.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This starter allowance at six furlongs features a wide spread of ratings and a morning-line favorite that our model doesn't love — plenty of opportunity to find value underneath.

win8JoinML 4/1

Join heads our ratings at 71.72 and draws Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Shelbi Kurtz at a very fair 4/1 on the morning line. A 25% career win rate shows this horse competes consistently, and an average speed figure of 53 is squarely in the field's range. Ortiz has the savvy to put a horse in the right position in a one-turn sprint, and we like this as a confident top selection.

place5Kid TwistML 15/1

Kid Twist at 15/1 is the value story of this race — a rating of 69.58 is second in the field, yet the morning line suggests the public hasn't caught on yet. Edgar Morales gets the mount for Chris Hartman, and a 12% career win rate understates what the speed figures are telling us here. In a starter allowance where early pace can get hot, a horse with this kind of rating at this kind of price makes for a compelling exotic piece.

show6Damascus SteelML 12/1

Damascus Steel brings a standout 50% career win rate — by far the best in the field — and a rating of 59.23 that slots third in our model. Ben Curtis is a reliable hand in these sprint situations for Destin Heath, and that winning percentage is legitimately eye-catching for a horse sitting at 12/1 on the morning line. He's a natural fit for tri and superfecta coverage.

Race 9

8:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A loaded turf allowance field to close out the card, with one horse dominating the ratings and a trio of overachieving closers that could make the underneath spots explosive.

win3Twirling ClaireML 5/2

Twirling Claire is our top-rated horse on the card for this race at 87.81, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for Gregory Foley — a combination that has been rolling all meet long. She posts an average speed figure of 57, which is the joint-best in the field and a meaningful edge in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint where raw pace matters. A 25% career win rate is solid for a turf allowance runner, and at 5/2 on the morning line, we're happy to play her as a confident top selection.

place5Something StrongerML 9/2

Something Stronger at 9/2 is an intriguing place play, slotting just above Triskelion in our ratings at 69.70 with an average speed of 56. Albert Stall Jr. is a trainer who knows how to place a horse in the right spot, and Ben Curtis can get the best out of a turf closer in a short sprint. The 11% career win rate might look modest, but this is exactly the kind of horse that finds the board more than it wins outright.

show4TriskelionML 7/2

Triskelion at 7/2 earns the show spot with a 69.06 rating and the field's joint-top average speed figure of 57. Luis Saez for George Arnold II is a pairing that consistently fires in turf sprints, and a 25% career win rate confirms this horse is used to competing in the money. With two strong horses likely to attract most of the wagering, Triskelion could offer soft show prices that still represent legitimate value.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Uncle Evco is the marquee free play of the day, Lit Ship gives the grass bettors something to get excited about early, and Next Time is our sneaky value shot in Race 2. All told, it's a well-rounded nine-race card on a picture-perfect Churchill afternoon. Full analysis on every race — including pace maps, exotic tickets, and our model's complete ratings — is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck, and let's cash some tickets.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3