Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 14, 2026
Happy Flag Day from the Big A. Belmont Park is serving up a 9-race card on a beautiful Sunday afternoon — clear skies, 84°F, and turf conditions that should be playing fast and true. When the weather cooperates like this, speed figures tend to hold up and pace scenarios sharpen up considerably. It's a good day to be at the window.
The card is a nice mix — four turf routes, three dirt sprints and routes, and a pair of allowance-level races to keep things interesting beyond the everyday claiming action. We've got maiden special weights, claiming races at multiple levels, and a starter allowance that figures to draw some strong opinions. Plenty of angles to work through.
TrackWiz has full analysis on all 9 races. Races 1 through 3 are free for everyone — no subscription needed. Races 4 through 9 are part of our premium full-card breakdown, available to subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A maiden turf route with two clear TrackWiz rating standouts separating themselves from the field, while the morning-line favorite at 2/5 brings Chad Brown connections but hasn't run yet.
River Ride checks nearly every box in our model, posting a TrackWiz rating of 86.66 — the second-highest in the field and a big jump above most of the competition. The Claude McGaughey III barn has long been a powerhouse with debut and lightly raced turf horses, and Jose Lezcano gives this horse a polished pilot who knows how to rate a runner at a mile and a sixteenth. With zero prior starts, the 8/5 morning line reflects genuine stable confidence, and that kind of support from a Hall of Fame conditioner is worth taking seriously.
Devilish Grin is the only horse in this maiden field with any career win percentage to speak of — 12% is meaningful context — and the 84.9 TrackWiz rating is comfortably ahead of most of the field. Trainer Amelia J. Green has this one primed at 9/2, which represents real value given the raw rating suggests a runner capable of landing in the exacta.
Long Term Market draws the 2/5 morning line, and the Chad Brown turf barn earns that kind of favoritism for good reason — Brown's operation consistently produces ready-to-fire turf debuts. The 60.0 TrackWiz rating is actually the third-lowest among our top selections, so we slot this one third in our analysis, but the pedigree and barn support make it a mandatory exotic inclusion.
Race 2
Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A one-mile dirt allowance optional claiming that sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, with a significant gap between the top pair and the rest of the field.
Tough Street is the clear TrackWiz top choice here with an 88.54 rating — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and backs it up with a 26% career win rate, which is legitimately elite in this spot. Manuel Franco picks up the mount, and he's been among the most reliable riders at the Big A meet. Rob Atras tends to run his horses hard when they're fit, and the 2/1 morning line from the oddsmakers aligns perfectly with what our model is saying.
Fast and Frisky at 5/2 brings a strong 22% career win rate and a solid 61.73 TrackWiz rating that puts her clearly in the mix for the exacta. Richard E. Dutrow Jr. is a trainer who knows how to place a horse to win, and Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons adds confidence — he's one of the sharper tactical riders on the circuit.
Carol T at 6/1 looks like a sneaky show inclusion — an 8% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but the 56.62 TrackWiz rating is third-best in this field and the price is right for a horse with Edgard Zayas steering. She's a logical underneath horse in trifectas at a price that won't kill your ticket cost.
Race 3
Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt
A starter allowance on the dirt where the morning-line favorite and our top-rated horse are two different animals, setting up a fascinating clash at the top of the field.
Egyptian lands atop our model with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field — and goes postward as the 8/5 morning line chalk. The Richard Dutrow Jr. barn has been firing, and Ruben Silvera gets the call on what looks like the most talented horse in the spot. The 8% career win rate might look modest at first glance, but in a starter allowance this is entirely typical of the class level, and the raw rating separation here is hard to ignore.
Come Full Circle at 2/1 is the other major player, posting a 76.09 TrackWiz rating and drawing Manuel Franco — one of the meet's elite pilots. Joe Sharp is a trainer who ships horses ready, and at a mile on the dirt this one sets up as a natural bridge horse between the top pick and the field.
Here's where it gets interesting: Drop Me a Dime is 15/1 on the morning line but carries a 33% career win rate — the highest in this field by a significant margin. That win rate at a double-digit price is a genuine longshot angle, and the 60.68 TrackWiz rating while modest is higher than several shorter-priced rivals. Trainer Joseph R. Lee placing a 33% winner in a spot like this at big odds warrants at least a trifecta presence.
Our three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card. We kick things off on the turf with River Ride in Race 1 — a maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles where our model has her rated at 86.66, right in line with her 8/5 morning line. Then we move to the main track for back-to-back dirt miles in Races 2 and 3, where Tough Street (88.54 rating, 2/1 ML) and Egyptian (89.12 rating, 8/5 ML) represent two of the strongest top-line ratings on the entire card.
The dirt should be playing consistently in this heat — keep an eye on how the early pace scenarios set up in Races 2 and 3, because a clear front-runner on a fast-playing track is a powerful angle. Egyptian carries the highest TrackWiz rating of the three free picks, and that number against a starter allowance field deserves your attention.
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Bottom line: this is a very playable card. The weather is ideal, the turf should be consistent all afternoon, and we've got legitimate opinions from Race 1 all the way through Race 9. Start with Egyptian in Race 3 as the top-rated free pick of the day, then let the premium analysis take you the rest of the way. Full-card breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic wager tickets are waiting for subscribers — check out our plans at TrackWiz Premium and get in on the full card. Good luck out there.