Daily Picks

Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 13, 2026

Saturday, June 13, 202611 racesBelmont At The Big A

It's a beautiful Saturday at Belmont at the Big A — clear skies, 83 degrees, and 11 races on the board. The kind of day where the turf is playing fast and the dirt is sealed up tight, which matters a lot when you're trying to project pace scenarios from the first post to the last.

The card is a nice mix of maiden claimers, open claiming races, and a turf stakes in Race 7 that's the marquee event of the afternoon. Five of today's races are run on the grass, so if you've been tracking turf form and trainer stats on soft-to-firm footing, today is your day to cash in.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all 11 races. Three races are free for everyone — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the complete premium breakdown available to subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer going long on the dirt, where the morning line favorite gets overlooked by our top-rated horse — and the TrackWiz model sees a significant gap at the top of the field.

win1Always PackenML 6/1

Always Packen opens at 6/1 on the morning line but carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — a meaningful edge over the chalk. Bruce Levine is a savvy conditioner who knows how to spot his horses in maiden claiming spots, and Ruben Silvera has the rail to work with over 1 1/8 miles. In a race where everyone is at the same average speed figure, that rating separation is the key differentiator — and 6/1 is a number worth attacking.

place6Bootsy's a RascalML 9/5

Bootsy's a Rascal is the 9/5 favorite and draws Manuel Franco, one of the sharper jockey calls on this card. The TrackWiz rating of 71.38 ranks second in the field, and the market clearly respects this one — but at short odds in a maiden claimer, we're happy to use her underneath rather than on top.

show4Uncle BarrieML 9/2

Uncle Barrie at 9/2 grades out third in the TrackWiz ratings at 59.49, giving him solid credentials as an exotic underneath piece. Richard Metivier is a workmanlike trainer who finds spots for his horses, and Cesar Gonzalez is a capable hand at The Big A. At a price, Uncle Barrie rounds out a logical trifecta key.

Race 2

5:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The trainer double for Ilkay Kantarmaci sets up an interesting dynamic, but it's a James Ferraro runner with a 20% career win rate that our model pegs as the class of this one-mile claiming field.

win6Natural HunkML 7/2

Natural Hunk is our top selection and it's not particularly close — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating leads the field by more than 15 points, and a 20% career win rate gives him the strongest historical résumé in the race. Jose Lezcano gets the call, and he's a proven closer on this circuit who knows how to rate a horse over a mile of dirt. At 7/2, there's mild value in a horse this well-rated, and James Ferraro's operation doesn't miss spots like this often.

place3Grand CommanderML 2/1

Grand Commander draws the 2/1 favorite billing and teams Manuel Franco with Kantarmaci — a barn that already has Superpower in this race, which tells you the trainer is confident in the stock. A 71.31 rating and 15% career win rate are respectable, and Franco at 2/1 isn't an accident; the connections clearly like his chances to hit the board at minimum.

show1SuperpowerML 4/1

Superpower at 4/1 slots in third on our ratings at 66.95 and gives Kantarmaci a second shot in the race — trainers don't double-enter unless they believe both have a chance. A 16% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse, and Silvestre Gonzalez can keep him competitive early. At a fair price, he's a logical show horse in exotics.

Race 3

6:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine horses entered at one mile on the dirt makes for a full, competitive claiming field — but one horse stands well above the pack on the TrackWiz model, and he's available at a reasonable morning line price.

win4Prove WorthyML 4/1

Prove Worthy is the standout here with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and — crucially — a 22% career win rate that tops this entire field. Edgard Zayas is a high-percentage rider who delivers in spots like this, and trainer William Morey has him primed at 4/1. The combination of the field's best rating AND the best win percentage makes Prove Worthy a genuine best bet in this spot.

place5Sagamore MischiefML 7/2

Sagamore Mischief draws Manuel Franco and goes postward at 7/2, giving him a strong rider angle in a race where pace could get messy with nine horses. The 72.85 rating ranks second, and while a 10% career win rate is modest, Franco has a way of nursing horses to the board in competitive claiming fields. Use him confidently underneath.

show8First TrumpetML 6/1

First Trumpet at 6/1 is an intriguing show option — his 70.44 rating is third-best in the race, and Jose Lezcano is a seasoned hand who can position a horse perfectly on the front end over one mile. The 6% career win rate is low, but show bettors aren't looking for winners; they're looking for horses who hit the board, and Lezcano's track savvy makes First Trumpet a real threat to do exactly that.

Our three free races today all run on the main dirt track — a mile-and-an-eighth in Race 1, two separate one-mile sprints in Races 2 and 3 — and the dry, sunny conditions should keep that surface consistent all afternoon. Always Packen (82.71 TrackWiz rating, 6/1 morning line) headlines the opener as a value angle in a thin maiden claiming field. Natural Hunk follows in Race 2 with a stronger 86.35 rating at 7/2, making him our most confident free pick of the trio. Prove Worthy rounds out the freebies in Race 3 with an 85.62 rating at 4/1 — solid form and a price worth playing.

The connecting thread across these three? All three top picks are rated above the field average and priced at 4/1 or better, meaning the morning line hasn't caught up to what our model sees. That's exactly the kind of spot where value hides in plain sight.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A dozen-horse maiden claiming field on the turf sprint creates a wide-open atmosphere where our model finds a clear top choice, but there's legitimate depth from post 3 through the 10s — value hunters will have options.

win11Richies LoveML 7/2

Richies Love leads the TrackWiz ratings at 80.53 and opens at 7/2 — reasonable for a maiden claimer this competitive. Jose Lezcano gets the mount for Michael Miceli, and this jockey-trainer combination knows how to navigate a big turf field. In a race full of maidens with no career wins to lean on, that rating advantage is the clearest edge we can identify.

place8My Munny TalksML 9/2

My Munny Talks at 9/2 grades out second on our model at 65.52 and picks up Dylan Davis, a capable pilot on the grass. Trainer Charlton Baker has quietly put together a solid book of turf runners, and at nearly 5-1 on the morning line, there's place value here if the pace scenario sets up for a closer. Use in exotics at a price.

show3High LeverageML 6/1

High Leverage draws the rail-adjacent 3-post with Manuel Franco — arguably the best jockey booking in the field — for Keri Brion, a trainer who knows her way around a turf sprint. The 64.44 rating ranks third, and Franco's tactical intelligence gives this horse a real edge in a packed turf field where positioning off the break is everything.

Race 5

7:07 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The morning line favorite and our top pick don't match up in this maiden turf route — Mo Curls draws attention at 2/1 despite facing a field with a legitimate second choice in Vitalize, setting up a possible exotics battle at the top.

win9Mo CurlsML 2/1

Mo Curls heads our selections with an 81.14 TrackWiz rating — the field's best — while going off at 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez is a familiar face on this circuit, and while the jockey assignment is TBA, the strength of the rating alone makes this horse the selection. In maiden turf routes, class indicators matter, and Mo Curls shows a clear edge over a nine-horse field.

place3VitalizeML 5/2

Vitalize comes in as the morning line second choice at 5/2 for David Donk, who saddles two horses in this race and clearly fancies Vitalize as his primary runner — that's telling. Edgard Zayas gets the call, and a 74.25 rating ranks second in the field. If Mo Curls gets compromised in traffic, Vitalize has the rating and connections to pick up the pieces.

show4Sicilian DancerML 6/1

Sicilian Dancer at 6/1 with Kendrick Carmouche is a sneaky show play in a maiden turf route at 1 1/16 miles. The 61.75 rating is third-best, and Carmouche is an excellent grass rider who can find a clean trip even from the 4-hole. Trainer Michelle Nevin places her horses thoughtfully, and at a double-digit price range this is a nice trifecta piece.

Race 6

7:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Always Angels comes in as the dominant figure in this seven-furlong dirt claiming race — she's the shortest price on the board and the highest-rated horse in the field by a wide margin, making her the race's central question.

win5Always AngelsML 8/5

Always Angels at 8/5 is the class of this field and it shows in the numbers — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating towers over the competition, and a 15% career win rate is respectable at the claiming level. Manuel Franco is a blue-chip booking, and Rob Atras knows exactly what he has here. The short price is honest; this is a legitimate best bet in a race she should control.

place4Jackie the JokerML 5/1

Jackie the Joker opens at 5/1 with Jose Lezcano for James Ferraro, and his 77.74 rating makes him the clear second horse on our model. A 16% career win rate shows he's competitive at this level, and if Always Angels gets caught up in any traffic at seven furlongs, Jackie is right there to pounce. The 5/1 number gives place bettors genuine value.

show9Curlin's MagicML 8/1

Curlin's Magic at 8/1 is the third-rated horse in the field at 74.97 and draws Javier Castellano — a Hall of Famer who rarely gets on horses without a real shot at the board. A 14% career win rate and solid average speed figure round out a profile that screams show horse in a Castellano exotic. The 8/1 morning line makes him a legitimate trifecta anchor.

Race 7

8:13 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Turf

A six-furlong turf stakes with a fascinating dynamic at the top — Celtic Dawn is the morning line chalk at 8/5 with a perfect record, but our model has Dancingwithdestiny as the clear top-rated horse, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win2DancingwithdestinyML 5/2

Dancingwithdestiny leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 with a 25% career win rate and draws Kendrick Carmouche, who has developed a strong reputation on turf. The average speed figure of 57 tops the field outright — in a six-furlong turf sprint, raw pace numbers matter enormously, and this horse has a clear edge there. At 5/2, this is a value play against a morning line favorite our model doesn't rank at the top.

place6EncantarML 3/1

Encantar at 3/1 for David Donk — who saddles two in this race — carries a 63.75 rating and a 33% career win rate that's legitimately impressive at the stakes level. Dylan Davis gets the call, and Donk's turf horses are always prepared. If the pace unfolds favorably for a closer, Encantar has the profile to sweep past tiring speed horses late.

show5Celtic DawnML 8/5

Celtic Dawn is the 8/5 morning line favorite with Javier Castellano and a perfect career record under trainer Carlos Martin — those credentials can't be ignored even as our third choice. The 55 average speed figure is second in the field, and a 100% win rate means this horse has never missed the board. At minimum, she's a strong show include and a genuine threat to upset the order.

Race 8

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A massive 14-horse maiden turf field creates a complex puzzle, but our model finds a clear top two with Ticket to Ride and Devilish Grin standing out — the question is whether the chaos of a full field opens the door for longshots.

win5Ticket to RideML 7/2

Ticket to Ride earns the top spot with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a morning line of 7/2 — reasonable for a maiden turf field this size. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is one of the sharper maiden conditioners in the game, and an average speed figure of 55 is among the field's best. Sahin Civaci handles the mount, and Joseph doesn't waste good jockey bookings on horses he isn't confident in.

place11Devilish GrinML 5/1

Devilish Grin at 5/1 is the one horse in this field who brings a career win percentage — 12% — which is meaningful in an otherwise winless maiden group. Manuel Franco is aboard for trainer Amelia Green, and an 82.01 rating with a 55 average speed figure makes this one of the most well-rounded profiles in the race. The 5/1 price offers real value for a horse with demonstrated ability to hit the board.

show1LoveontheleftbankML 6/1

Loveontheleftbank at 6/1 slots in third on our model at 81.09 and draws Ricardo Santana Jr. for Miguel Clement — a sharp combination on the turf. A 54 average speed figure is solid, and with Claude McGaughey-caliber trainers in the field, it helps to have a trainer like Clement who spots his horses intelligently. At 6/1, this is an excellent trifecta anchor in an unpredictable full-field maiden.

Race 9

9:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One mile on the dirt for claimers and our top pick comes in as a price horse at 5/1 — Lonesome Boy leads the model despite not being the morning line favorite, creating a potential overlay opportunity in the nightcap dirt race.

win1Lonesome BoyML 5/1

Lonesome Boy heads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and carries a robust 21% career win rate — the kind of proven consistency that matters in a claiming mile. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount for Hugo Padilla, and a 54 average speed figure matches the field's best. At 5/1, this is the kind of value play where the model and the market diverge in our favor — that gap is worth betting.

place3EliminateML 4/1

Eliminate at 4/1 with Manuel Franco for Joe Sharp is the second-rated horse at 78.12 and brings a 19% career win rate. Sharp is a respected conditioner who travels his horses to spots he believes in, and Franco's record in claiming races speaks for itself. This is a horse who can sit just off the pace and hit the board with regularity.

show6Money SupplyML 3/1

Money Supply at 3/1 is the morning line favorite but our third choice — the 73.02 rating ranks third, though a 28% career win rate is the best in the entire field. Jose Lezcano knows how to win on this kind of horse, and a 54 average speed figure matches the top two. He'll likely be the public choice, but at 3/1 he's best used as a show/underneath inclusion in tickets.

Race 10

9:48 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

Sixteen horses go to post in this starter optional claiming turf sprint — it's a full, chaotic field where finding pace position early is critical, and our model identifies a clear top choice despite the morning line having him at 9/2.

win1Counter MoveML 9/2

Counter Move leads the TrackWiz model at 84.90 and pairs Javier Castellano with George Weaver — one of the most potent training-riding combinations in the New York circuit for turf sprints. An 11% career win rate is modest, but that number often understates horses who consistently hit the board in tough starter fields. At 9/2, with the highest rating in a 16-horse field and an elite jockey booking, this is our best play of the nightcap races.

place12City of OscarsML 7/2

City of Oscars at 7/2 opens as a near-co-favorite and earns a 70.28 rating under Manuel Franco for Mark Casse — a Hall of Fame trainer who consistently fires in spots like this. A 14% career win rate and 55 average speed figure give City of Oscars the raw tools to compete, and Franco's tactical positioning in large turf fields is second to none. Use underneath confidently.

show13SwagingML 8/1

Swaging at 8/1 is a value show play — a 65.56 rating for Linda Rice, who sends out multiple turf horses with care and precision. A 16% career win rate is solid, the 55 average speed figure matches the field's best, and at 8/1 on the morning line there's genuine overlay potential in exotics. In a 16-horse field, having a horse at this price with these credentials makes for a smart trifecta cover.

Race 11

10:19 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

The finale is a loaded 16-horse maiden special weight on the turf mile — Sir Oscar comes in as the clear model top choice at 2/1, but our place and show picks at 6/1 and 12/1 offer outstanding exotic value in a field this deep.

win9Sir OscarML 2/1

Sir Oscar carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on today's card — and opens at 2/1 with Manuel Franco for George Weaver. In maiden special weight company on the turf, trainer quality and jockey caliber matter as much as raw numbers, and this combination checks every box. Franco and Weaver don't start horses at 2/1 in a 16-horse field without serious belief in the horse's ability to deliver.

place8KuleanaML 6/1

Kuleana at 6/1 is a tremendous value play underneath — a 72.45 TrackWiz rating ranks second in this massive field, and Ricardo Santana Jr. picks up the mount for Jeremiah Englehart, a trainer who is elite in maiden turf events. At 6/1 in a race where the favorite might get caught in traffic, Kuleana has the profile of a horse who can sweep past tiring rivals and hit the board decisively.

show10Dinghy BarML 12/1

Dinghy Bar opens at 12/1 and rates out third on our model at 72.01 — which is remarkable for a double-digit morning line price. Katie Davis gets the call for John Terranova II, a trainer who specializes in finding value spots for his horses. In a 16-horse turf maiden where the field spreads across the grass, Dinghy Bar at 12/1 is one of the best show value plays on the entire card — absolutely use in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

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Clear skies, firm turf, and a full 11-race card — it's a strong afternoon at the Big A. Start with Always Packen, Natural Hunk, and Prove Worthy in the free races, then let the premium analysis guide you through the stakes race and the back half of the card. The full breakdown, pace projections, and exotic tickets are all waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — let's have a big day.

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