Belmont At The Big A Picks & Predictions — June 12, 2026
It's a clear, hot Friday at Aqueduct's temporary home, with temperatures pushing 87°F and plenty of sunshine — the kind of afternoon where the turf course figures to play fast and the dirt strip rewards early speed. We've got a full 10-race card on tap, mixing dirt and turf action across a variety of conditions from maiden claimers all the way up to allowance optional claiming company.
Today's card leans heavily on the grass, with five of the ten races contested on turf — and the warm, dry conditions should keep that surface firm and fair. Our TrackWiz models have crunched through the full field, and there's a nice mix of confident top picks and a few spots where the morning line leaves value on the table. Three of today's races are available free to all readers, giving everyone a solid starting point before the first post.
Best Bets
Race 1
Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite looks vulnerable here, as the TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — the top-rated horse goes postward at 5/1, creating a potential overlay situation in this 6-furlong starter optional claiming opener.
Southeastern earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.17, a clear edge over every other contender. Linda Rice conditions this one, and her barn has consistently produced sharp efforts on the Big A dirt. At 5/1 on the morning line, this horse represents real overlay potential considering the rating advantage — that's a number that would normally attract a much shorter price.
Felonious brings the second-highest rating in the field at 79.19 and gets Flavien Prat in the irons — a combination that's hard to dismiss in a race like this. A 16% career win rate is modest, but this horse's profile fits a place spot nicely at a workable 7/2 price.
Special Ops is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with Manuel Franco up, and while the 76.89 TrackWiz rating trails the top two, Franco's tactical ability in a sprint could keep this one honest. The 16% career win rate mirrors Felonious's, but the shorter price makes it more useful as a show hedge in exacta or trifecta construction.
Race 2
Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf
Fascinating dynamics in this 1 3/8-mile turf allowance optional claimer — the heavy morning-line favorite carries the field's lowest average speed figure among horses with recorded figures, opening the door for some genuine value plays to land in the exacta.
Agia Marina tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.37 with John Velazquez in the saddle — one of the craftiest tacticians around for a long-distance turf route. The 12% career win rate may seem modest, but this is a horse whose rating towers over most of this field, and Velazquez's ability to rate a horse over 1 3/8 miles is a meaningful edge. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is clearly the value play over the heavily backed Kiamba.
Romantic Dancer carries a 74.41 rating and a 21% career win rate — solid credentials in this spot. The 6/5 morning line suggests public confidence, but note that a rider is still to be named, which adds a small layer of uncertainty. The average speed figure of 55 is among the better marks in the field, and Richard Dutrow Jr. has been known to place horses effectively at route distances.
Can't Fool Me is worth a look at 10/1 as a show play with a 74.18 rating — nearly identical to Romantic Dancer's mark — and a 17% career win rate that shows this horse knows how to compete. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount for Fernando Abreu, and the price alone makes this an attractive trifecta inclusion if the top two falter.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A clear class standout emerges in this 1 1/16-mile turf allowance optional claimer, but the second-rated horse at 6/1 offers compelling value and could easily upset the favorite on a field that's otherwise closely bunched.
Opulent Restraint dominates this field on the TrackWiz ratings sheet at 88.72 — that's a double-digit gap over the next closest competitor. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and handled by Junior Alvarado, this horse shows a 25% career win rate and the top average speed figure in the field at 55. The 6/5 morning line is short, but the rating gap justifies confidence — this is a horse that should be controlling this conversation from the jump.
Unreasonable is the horse that makes this race genuinely interesting. At 6/1 on the morning line with a 82.71 TrackWiz rating, the gap between this horse and the favorite is much smaller than the odds imply. The standout stat here is the field's best average speed figure at 58, suggesting raw pace potential that could be the difference if Opulent Restraint hits any kind of trouble. Manuel Franco is a dangerous pilot at any price.
Growth Trajectory brings a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate to this spot — by far the best conversion rate in the field. Flavien Prat picks up the mount for Chad Brown, and the 72.75 rating puts this horse third overall. At 4/1, it's a fair price for a horse that wins half its starts and has a Hall of Fame-caliber trainer sending it out.
Our three complimentary previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3, and there's a clear thread running through them: class and pace scenario. On the dirt in Race 1, Southeastern (morning line 5/1) earns an 84.17 TrackWiz rating in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs — a field where that kind of number can be decisive if the pace sets up right. Shift to the turf for Races 2 and 3, and the picture gets even sharper. Agia Marina (5/1) takes on a long 1 3/8-mile Allowance Optional Claiming test, where her profile stands out in what figures to be a ground-saving trip on the far turn. And then there's Opulent Restraint — our highest-rated free pick of the day at 88.72 — who goes as the 6/5 morning line favorite in the 1 1/16-mile AOC on turf. That kind of rating at that kind of price is rare, and it's worth noting even if the odds aren't flashy.
The consistent theme across these three free races is surface fitness: horses that have demonstrated they belong on today's specific footing. On a firm turf course and a fast-playing dirt strip, pedigree and recent form on the appropriate surface matter more than ever. Check the individual race previews for the full breakdown on each.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: today at Belmont at the Big A offers a well-rounded card with legitimate opportunities on both surfaces. Our free best bets — Southeastern, Agia Marina, and Opulent Restraint — give casual players a strong foundation, while the full premium breakdown covers every angle across all 10 races. As always, no locks exist in racing, but our TrackWiz analysis is designed to put you on the right side of the odds more often than not. Good luck, and play smart.