Daily Picks

Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 17, 2026

Wednesday, June 17, 20268 racesAssiniboia

It's a nice day at Assiniboia Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 60°F, the kind of weather that keeps the dirt track playing honest. Eight races are on tap today, all on the main track, ranging from 5½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs. A solid mid-week card with a good mix of Allowance Optional Claiming and straight Claiming company.

The shorter sprints dominate the early races before the card stretches out, giving bettors a chance to spot pace scenarios that shift as the distance changes. Worth paying attention to how the early speed holds up in the first few sprints — that kind of track read can pay dividends in the later races.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear top-two stand out in this allowance optional claiming sprint, with the morning-line favorite backed by a massive ratings edge — but a historically sharp win-percentage horse lurks at a price worth watching.

win3I'm in ControlML 8/5

I'm in Control (No. 3) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 89.12 — a meaningful gap over the next-best contender — and trainer Keith Pedersen sends this one out as the 8/5 morning-line choice for good reason. The 5 1/2-furlong dirt dash suits a horse with a 25% career win rate, which is solid for this level. Jockey Sven Balroop gets the call, and the pace scenario over a short sprint should allow this horse to dictate or sit close. At chalk odds you're not getting rich, but the numbers back the confidence.

place4Mystic SongML 5/1

Mystic Song (No. 4) is genuinely fascinating here — that 80% career win percentage is extraordinary and demands attention at 5/1 on the morning line. Trainer Carl Norman Anderson pairs with Javaniel R. Patterson, and the horse's average speed figure of 54 is the field's joint-best. The rating of 79.35 trails only I'm in Control, making this a logical place play that could easily flip positions on race day.

show6Girl From de BayouML 4/1

Girl From de Bayou (No. 6) rounds out the show ticket with a TrackWiz rating of 78.39 — third-best in the field — and matches Mystic Song's 54 average speed figure. Trainer Elton Dickey fields a live runner here, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this horse offers decent value in the exotics. If the pace gets hot up front, Antonio Whitehall could angle this one home for a share.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite in this claiming sprint doesn't match up to the top-rated horses statistically, setting up a potential upset scenario where the value plays outperform the chalk.

win7She's My NieceML 7/1

She's My Niece (No. 7) is our top selection at 7/1 morning line, carrying the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 81.25 despite being largely overlooked by oddsmakers — that's the kind of disconnect we love to find. Jockey Antonio Whitehall has the mount for trainer William Tourangeau, and on a surface and distance (5 1/2 furlongs, dirt) where her speed profile fits, the setup is right. A 14% career win rate might look modest, but the raw rating suggests her best has been very good. At 7/1, this is a genuine value play if she runs to form.

place2Big TippaML 4/1

Big Tippa (No. 2) is nearly a dead heat with She's My Niece on raw ratings (73.62) and brings a 28% career win percentage that ranks among the best in this field. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. and jockey Devante Prescod form a familiar local pairing, and the 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse that consistently finds the winner's circle. A natural place option to pair with our win pick.

show1IndyettaML 9/2

Indyetta (No. 1) closes out our sequence at 9/2 with a 73.50 rating — essentially a coin flip with Big Tippa — and a career win rate of 29% that's the best of this trio. Trainer Cindy Krasner and jockey Kerron Khelawan have the rail post, which on a 5 1/2-furlong sprint can provide a clean trip. As the third-best-rated horse in the race, she's a sound show anchor for exacta and trifecta construction.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming route at 7 1/2 furlongs features a clear ratings leader flying under the radar at 4/1, with the morning-line favorite significantly over-bet relative to the TrackWiz numbers.

win6Brooklyn Alley CatML 4/1

Brooklyn Alley Cat (No. 6) tops the field with a 85.62 TrackWiz rating and goes at 4/1 morning line — surprisingly generous given the ratings advantage over the 9/5 chalk. Trainer Jerry Gourneau saddles this one with Dario Dalrymple up, and the stretch out to 7 1/2 furlongs on dirt could be exactly the distance to allow a sustained run. A 15% career win rate is modest, but the class profile is strong for this condition.

place5Valley VictoryML 6/1

Valley Victory (No. 5) is the second-best-rated horse at 80.34 and goes off at a generous 6/1 on the morning line — one of the better value place plays on the card. Trainer Carl Norman Anderson teams with Shavon Townsend, and the 7 1/2-furlong distance gives this horse room to develop a run. If Brooklyn Alley Cat takes heat early, Valley Victory has the rating to capitalize.

show3Hey Big UnML 9/5

Hey Big Un (No. 3) is the 9/5 morning-line favorite, but our analysis ranks this horse third in the field with a 73.61 rating — which creates an interesting situation. Trainer Steve Keplin, Jr. and Damario Bynoe represent a sharp local pairing, and the 23% career win rate is the best among the three picks. As a short-priced show option, the value isn't ideal, but the horse earns a spot in trifecta tickets.

Three races are available to everyone today. TrackWiz analysis has I'm in Control (8/5 morning line, Race 1) topping the opener with an 89.12 rating — the highest score among all the free picks and one of the strongest numbers on the entire card. Over 5½ furlongs on a neutral dirt track, that kind of edge is hard to ignore. Race 2 offers a genuine longshot angle: She's My Niece sits at 7/1 on the morning line in a Claiming sprint, and her 81.25 TrackWiz rating suggests she's live at that price. Race 3 stretches out to 7½ furlongs, and Brooklyn Alley Cat (4/1 ML, 85.62 rating) looks like a stalker type who could benefit from a pace meltdown if the front-runners get loose early.

The thread connecting these free picks? Each figures to run near or on the pace at a track where maintaining tactical position in shorter dirt routes tends to matter. Keep that bias in mind as you work through your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

This claiming route features a significant ratings gap between Shabam and the morning-line favorite, making this a race where the TrackWiz numbers strongly disagree with the public's 2/1 chalk — premium content race.

win2ShabamML 6/1

Shabam (No. 2) is our top selection at 6/1 morning line despite owning the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — a substantial edge over the 2/1 morning-line favorite Oregon County. Trainer Wendy Anderson fields this horse with Damario Bynoe aboard, and while the 15% career win rate is conservative, the raw performance data suggests the horse is capable of a dominant effort. The 7 1/2-furlong dirt route suits horses that can sustain pace, and Shabam's numbers scream value at the odds. If the market hasn't corrected by post time, this is a strong overlay.

place4Oregon CountyML 2/1

Oregon County (No. 4) draws most of the public money at 2/1 and backs it up with a 75.34 TrackWiz rating and a solid 24% career win percentage — the best win rate among our three picks. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Sheldon Chickeness are a productive local combination, and the class profile fits this claiming level well. Even if Shabam runs it down, Oregon County has the consistency profile to hold a place.

show3Mister KML 4/1

Mister K (No. 3) sits third in our ratings at 68.02 and offers a 4/1 morning line that represents reasonable exotic value. Trainer Sherri Leanne Laing sends this one out with Roger Hewitt, and the horse's 53 average speed figure is the joint-best in the race alongside Oregon County. The 9% career win rate is a concern, but in a trifecta sequence, Mister K has enough back-end ability to earn a share.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Peterson Landing looks like a dominant favorite in this claiming sprint, with a TrackWiz rating nearly 21 points clear of the field — the rare instance where the chalk is also the best value angle.

win6Peterson LandingML 7/5

Peterson Landing (No. 6) carries a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest on today's entire card — and heads to the gate as the 7/5 morning-line choice. Trainer Keith Pedersen and jockey Antonio Whitehall combine with a horse whose 54 average speed figure is the field's joint-best. A 13% career win rate might look underwhelming on paper, but the underlying performance data is emphatically top-shelf for this claiming company. When a horse's rating this dominant shows up in a maiden/claiming field, the playbook says trust it.

place1Just the ThingML 4/1

Just the Thing (No. 1) is the place pick at 4/1 with a 68.79 rating that's second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Steven Gaskin and jockey Damario Bynoe take the rail post, which in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint is a workable starting position. The 6% career win rate is low, but the speed figure of 53 and the rating suggest this horse runs consistently enough to threaten for a place.

show3Wings of a SparrowML 5/1

Wings of a Sparrow (No. 3) rounds out the show ticket with a 62.47 rating and the field's best career win percentage among the lower-rated contenders at 20%. Trainer Elton Dickey sends this one out with Rachaad Knights, and the 5/1 morning line offers a touch of value in the exotics. If the pace collapses up front, a closer with a 20% win rate could pick up a share.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of 11 goes to post in this 6-furlong claiming race, but the serious money should center on a trio of horses that are well clear of the rest on the numbers — with the public underestimating at least one of them.

win9Makena's JoyML 4/1

Makena's Joy (No. 9) leads our analysis with an 84.89 TrackWiz rating and gets 4/1 morning-line odds that represent fair value in a large field. Trainer Demetris Topouzis sends this one out with Javaniel R. Patterson, and the horse's 54 average speed figure ties for best in the field. An 18% career win rate is respectable for claiming company, and in a wide-open 11-horse field, the ratings edge here is meaningful. This is a horse that can win and pay decently.

place3WeekendindelmarML 6/1

Weekendindelmar (No. 3) is essentially a coin flip with the win pick on ratings at 82.71 and brings the field's top average speed figure of 54. Trainer Robert Maybin and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen take a 6/1 morning line that looks soft given the underlying numbers. An 18% career win rate adds credibility, and in a field this large, having two horses with near-identical top ratings running 1-2 in our exotics makes a lot of sense.

show6Call the CavalryML 2/1

Call the Cavalry (No. 6) is the public's 2/1 second choice but ranks third in our analysis at 68.05 — suggesting the market may have this one slightly over-bet. Trainer Craig Robert Smith and jockey Rachaad Knights handle a horse posting a 54 average speed figure, which is right there with the top pair. The 15% career win rate is modest, but in an 11-horse race, showing up for a piece at 2/1 is a realistic outcome. Include in trifectas but don't over-invest at those odds.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive 10-horse claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings cluster tightly in the 60s, creating a genuine pace puzzle — and two horses near double-digit odds that our analysis rates above the morning-line favorites.

win2Paco's PicoML 8/1

Paco's Pico (No. 2) leads the field on TrackWiz ratings at 65.14 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a notable overlay in a field where the betting favorites sit below this horse on our numbers. Trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Antonio Whitehall combine here, and a 22% career win rate suggests this horse has the finishing skills to close out a race. The 54 average speed figure matches several rivals, but the overall rating edge provides a real edge. At 8/1, this is one of the day's better value plays.

place6Lovely SassicaiaML 10/1

Lovely Sassicaia (No. 6) is another Wendy Anderson runner at 10/1, earning a 64.32 TrackWiz rating that's solidly in the top three in this field. Jockey Damario Bynoe takes the mount, and a 15% career win rate tells you this horse is capable of competing at this level. The value angle here is clear — 10/1 for a horse rated this close to our win pick offers terrific exotic leverage.

show4Northvale RoadML 5/2

Northvale Road (No. 4) checks in at 63.74 and is the morning-line's 5/2 second choice — so we're essentially ranking this horse third while the market has it second. Trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Dario Dalrymple handle a horse with a 21% career win rate and the field's standout average speed figure of 56. That speed number is worth noting — if this horse presses forward early and controls the pace, it could easily finish ahead of our higher-rated selections. A legitimate threat even as our third selection.

Race 8

3:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

Saxon Saga stands as a clear class standout in this 10-horse claiming route, with a ratings edge of more than 12 points over the field — the type of number that makes a 7/2 price look almost palatable.

win3Saxon SagaML 7/2

Saxon Saga (No. 3) enters with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the highest in the race by a significant margin — and draws the 7/2 morning line with Antonio Whitehall in the irons for trainer Rick A. Wise. A 27% career win rate is genuinely strong for claiming company and backs the rating with real-world results. The 7 1/2-furlong distance rewards horses that can handle a route, and with a 53 average speed figure that holds up across the field, there's no reason to fade this horse. At 7/2, the value isn't eye-popping but the confidence level is high.

place1Wrong DirectionML 9/2

Wrong Direction (No. 1) makes a compelling place case at 9/2 morning line with a 73.76 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Trainer Tom Gardipy, Jr. and jockey Tyrone Nelson team up on a horse that carries a 19% career win percentage and is capable of looping around to find a placing. The rail post in a two-turn route can be an advantage if the pace sets up favorably, and the rating comfortably separates this horse from the mid-pack.

show10NamesakeML 6/1

Namesake (No. 10) rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with a 72.91 TrackWiz rating and a strong 22% career win percentage. Trainer Craig Robert Smith gives this horse to Damario Bynoe, and the 54 average speed figure is among the better numbers in the race. As the third-rated horse in a field where the top three are meaningfully separated from the rest, Namesake is a logical trifecta anchor. The 6/1 morning-line price adds a bit of exotic return too.

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Today's Assiniboia card is a workmanlike dirt program with real betting opportunity baked in. I'm in Control headlines the free side of the card with the top rating of the day, while Peterson Landing and Saxon Saga look like the names to know in the premium races. Toss in a live longshot angle on She's My Niece and you've got a full day's worth of action. Subscribers get the complete picture — pace, exotics, and all eight races — right here on TrackWiz.

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