Free Will Rogers Picks & Predictions

Lilmissmadeyalook (No. 3) checks in at an 87.08 rating — just a whisker behind our top pick — and represents solid value at 3/1 on the morning line. Roman Cruz is aboard for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, a barn that fires horses ready to run. In a race where the top three ratings are separated by fewer than four points, this one is a legitimate win threat and a safe place ticket.

P Fifty One (No. 4) sits at 83.92 on the TrackWiz scale and is listed at 2/1 on the morning line, making the horse well-respected by oddsmakers. The 11% career win rate is modest, but trainer Stacy Charette-Hill has a knack for placing horses competitively at this level. Use P Fifty One underneath in trifectas — the morning-line price alone signals this one belongs in the mix.

Fdd Cleatsbabydoll (No. 1) brings a 33% career win rate to the table — tied for the highest in the field — along with a solid 77.19 rating. Trainer David Ridgeway sends this one out at 4/1 with Randy Vega up, and that win rate tells you this horse knows how to finish the job. Draw No. 1 in a 300-yard race has its quirks, but the raw ability here is hard to ignore for place coverage.

Maui Babey (No. 8) comes in at a 66.35 rating with a 25% career win rate and sits at 5/1 on the morning line, making this a fair-priced show ticket in a spread-out field. Trainer Jorge L. Gonzalez puts jockey Oscar Jaquez up, and the combination of solid ratings and a double-digit price makes Maui Babey an excellent trifecta inclusion. Don't sleep on the outside draw in a short sprint — sometimes clean air is worth more than post position.

Here's where things get interesting — Dyna Bea (No. 7) carries a 69.58 TrackWiz rating, which ranks third in the field, yet hits the board at 15/1 on the morning line. That's a significant price discrepancy from where the ratings place this horse. Trainer Samuel Gaytan Jr. puts Roman Cruz up, and Cruz is one of the more active jockeys on this card. At 15/1, Dyna Bea is a genuine overlay for place and an outstanding trifecta key.

Jumpn Toltac (No. 6) rates at 68.81 — just behind Dyna Bea — and goes at 6/1 with Cordarelton J. Benn aboard for trainer Luz Chavira. The 12% career win rate in a claiming field is nothing alarming, and this horse profiles as a legitimate threat to land third in a competitive heat. At 6/1, Jumpn Toltac is the kind of show horse that keeps your exotics alive.