Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — May 21, 2026
It's a Thursday afternoon at Hawthorne and the racing gods are cooperating — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 62°F make for near-ideal conditions on both the dirt and turf. Seven races are on the card today, split across three surfaces, and there's enough variation in race types to keep handicappers of every stripe busy from first post to the nightcap.
The dirt looks fast and the turf should be playing firm under those clouds, which matters a lot when you're trying to project pace scenarios and pace-favoring vs. stalker scenarios. We've got a couple of turf sprints, a one-mile turf route, and a handful of dirt sprints ranging from claiming to allowance company — plenty of angles to work with.
TrackWiz analysis covers all seven races today. The first three are on us — free to every reader. Races 4 through 7 are unlocked for subscribers, and trust us, that's where some of the most interesting dynamics on today's card are hiding.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A claiming opener where one horse towers over the field on paper, but a pair of double-digit morning-line prices could make the exotics interesting if the favorite stumbles.
Easy Fast is the clear class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — more than 25 points clear of the next horse. Orlando Mojica gets the call and the 4/5 morning line tells you the market agrees. A 16% career win rate is respectable in this company, and an average speed figure of 52 keeps pace with the field. Barring a serious pace meltdown, this one should be getting the winner's share.
Dattts Life at 10/1 is the most intriguing ticket-builder in the race, carrying a 64.91 TrackWiz rating that ranks third overall despite the double-digit morning line. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount and the horse's average speed figure of 53 is actually competitive. At that price, slotting Dattts Life underneath Easy Fast in exactas makes a lot of sense.
Bad Obsession brings the best career win percentage in the field at 20%, which suggests a horse that knows how to finish. Reynier Arrieta rides for Heather Irion, and with a 59.11 rating and an avg speed of 52, there's enough here to threaten for a piece. At 8/1 on the morning line, this one rounds out a solid show ticket or a trifecta fill.
Race 2
Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Three horses are bunched tightly in TrackWiz ratings between 80 and 85, setting up a genuine battle at the top — and the morning-line favorite isn't our top pick.
Frontier Marshal opens at 5/1 despite posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17, which immediately flags him as a potential overlay. Olaf Hernandez rides for trainer Michele Boyce, and a 12% career win rate in what looks like a competitive allowance optional claiming field is nothing to dismiss. At six furlongs on dirt, the pace scenario should set up well for a horse with this profile. TrackWiz analysis likes the number here relative to the price.
Wayllen Richard is the 2/1 morning-line choice and not without merit — an 81.12 rating and an 18% career win rate make him a legitimate contender. Luis H. Colon takes the mount for the Hugo Rodriguez barn, which also saddles El Mucho in this same race. The stable confidence angle is worth noting, but Frontier Marshal's edge in raw ratings pushes Wayllen Richard to the place spot in our analysis.
Red Moscato has the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 80.16 and gets Orlando Mojica, one of the sharper sticks in the jockey colony today. The 6% career win rate is a flag, but speed figures and raw ratings don't always align with win percentage in horses that may have faced tougher competition. At 3/1, he fits naturally into the show slot and rounds out a trifecta with the top two.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf
A maiden special weight on the turf over a short five-furlong sprint — always a tricky puzzle, and with several first-time starters in the mix, it's exactly the kind of race where ratings do the heavy lifting.
Kazoom posts the highest TrackWiz rating in this maiden field by a wide margin at 84.90, and Israel Hernandez rides for Eduardo Rodriguez — a connection worth tracking throughout the card today. An average speed figure of 55 is the best among horses with recorded figures, and in a field where several runners have no established times, that edge matters. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here for a horse our model rates as a clear standout.
Tuff Heart at 8/1 is the most interesting overlay in the field, sitting second in TrackWiz ratings at 70.59 — a full 14 points clear of the next horse. Javier Tavares takes the mount for Charles Davis Jr., and an average speed figure of 54 shows this horse can run. In a wide-open maiden turf sprint where anything can happen, Tuff Heart at that price is exactly the kind of horse to build exotics around.
Capovivo is the 5/2 second choice on the morning line under Orlando Mojica for Larry Rivelli, a trainer who knows how to condition a maiden. No recorded average speed figure on file, which introduces some uncertainty, but a 57.50 rating is third-best in the field. As the likely second betting choice, Capovivo fits comfortably in the show slot and makes sense as a trifecta anchor in a race this unpredictable.
Our three free races give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Race 1 features Easy Fast — a 4/5 morning-line favorite who earned the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 90. That kind of dominant rating on a short price tells you the edge isn't in betting blindly to win, but in using this horse as a banker in exactas and trifectas to build value. Race 2 pivots to more interesting territory: Frontier Marshal opens at 5/1 in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, and our models like him at that price. A 5/1 shot with an 84+ rating in this field is the kind of overlay that makes the free card worth your attention on its own.
Race 3 takes us to the turf for a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight, where Kazoom lands at 9/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of nearly 85. Maiden turf sprints are notoriously tricky — first-time turf runners can surprise in either direction — but we've done the homework on pace shape and breeding angles to zero in on Kazoom as the top choice. Firm going should suit a horse with his profile.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's best bets start with Easy Fast as a race-structuring banker, Frontier Marshal as the free-card value play at 5/1, and Kazoom on the turf to round out the free picks. The premium half of the card — headlined by Floribunda and Flame Dancer — is where subscribers will find the exotic overlays and multi-race ticket strategies. Good luck out there, and as always, bet what you can afford to lose. It's a long season.